Topic: Good press everywhere. Yet the price stays the same... - page 4. (Read 6243 times)

If i remember well the days around thanksgiving were good days for the price 

As mentioned, it's the holiday season - at least for a large portion of the world. People are more preoccupied with buying gifts, planning vacations, preparing for relatives visiting from out of town, studying for end of term exams, writing end of term papers, dealing with work deadlines and whatever else needs to be done before the year is over, etc, etc. Even if they've seen the news, figuring out out how to buy bitcoins is prolly lower on the priority list right now for most people as they spend their time and money on family and holiday stuff.

this is my worry, first i thought we were going to the moon after we rallied following the low, but it seems less attractive now...

We 've seen all those news before. That's why the price haven't moved. And those news can't come close to an internet giant like Baidu accepting bitcoins. On top of that don't expect the market to rush into bitcoin after the latest massive swing.

THIS IS HOW THE CYCLE WORKS. Price rise attracts attention. Attention attracts investment and entrepreneurial talent. while price drops back down those companies are still building the infrastructure. Now we have more infrastructure, which opens the gates to more adoption. By now the price has been digested and further adoption has increased psychological support for higher prices. Then another bubble. Same pattern will inevitably repeat itself. Not only is bitcoin genius because of its tech innovations but of the way economic incentives are built. Think about it, if you go work for a company chances are you will never own equity unless you work there your whole life, you dont see the fruits of your own labor. With bitcoin you do. Thats way any logical, talanted, self confident person would perfer to work in bitcoin than wall street.


The psychological barrier can be removed by moving to mbtc
The market does need to digest, and I expect a short term fall, even tho i am not out because i am not a good trader.
The winkelvii ETF is overhyped if anyone is getting an ETF its a financial institution. Idk why people think that wall street is gonna let to kids open up the most profitable ETF and do nothing.
The regulation is underestimated. I for one do not believe that governments are gonna stand buy and let this happen, past few days china, EU and russia all have said anti bitcoin things (the russia guy said virtual currencies are great but we want to control them we will wait for bitcoin to fail). And they can effect short term price. On the other hand not all policymakers are paid by the FED, some of them are paid by silicon valley and hedge funds that have positions, and some of them realize that just like the internet is bigger than we ever dreamed of in the 1990s despite the bubble bitcoin can do the same thing and they want a better world to live in themselves.
Investment always overreacts, to something will consumption always undereacts, as the price calms down innovators will build new systems, merchants will accept it more, so on and so forth, the price rose to fast anyways.
Because there is a big market everyone is working on things, wether it be coinbase that is public about it, or kryptokit that came out of nowhere or snapcard that allows you to buy anything in BTC. There is a delay these things take time.

Why? Because of human psychology. Most people would rather own 1 mBTC than 0.001 BTC, even though they're the same thing. It just sounds better. Therefore, they're willing to pay more for 1 mBTC than 0.001 BTC. (Thus, the price increases.)

It's irrational and not logical, but humans aren't hardwired to handle logic and rationality. We're beings driven by emotions and simple instincts.

not to mention the 25 mil just raised by coinbase

just my opinion:

The fast rise in price up to 1200 was mainly a pure speculation bubble.

The actual price of bitcoin (from storage of wealth and usage) is much lower than the current exchange price (best guess 366), because of lots of speculation (even after the bubble burst). This means that even if this actual price goes up to 500, it doesn't guarantee that the price goes up. It will just change the anticipation of the speculators into reality. When(or if) the real price (from storage of wealth and usage) goes up to the level of the exchange price, we'll see the next growth spurt.

Also as stated before, usage of bitcoin doesn't necessarily drive the price as much as you think. If 365 dollar are put into BTC for one day and then used to buy something and the merchant changes back to fiat immediately, the real investment in bitcoin is just 1 dollar. (a day calculated for a year) You can imagine how may short transactions are needed to have a sizable impact on the market.

That being said, a stable coin is good for the market and gives time to develop new things. As time passes, people who adopt bitcoin will do so because of its aspects, rather than its price. (certainly you don't hold cash for speculation, but because it is useful to you where you live and in your life.)

If Bitcoin which is the representative of all the cryptos fails and ends up called a ponzi scheme , no crypto will ever succeed.
It's already hard to get rid of this tag already , but with an actual failure , nobody will be able to do it.

There weren't many well perceived news recently.

European Central Bank issues warning, New Zeeland and Australian Central bank issues warning, Chinese Central bank issues warning. US closes Cassacius coins. Fidelity backtracks and no longer accepts bitcoin investments for IRA accounts.

All the above happened quite recently and were perceived as negative so....Price is pretty stable considering the above and how people perceived these headlines.

Here's my take...

Bitcoin is just too damn difficult to use or understand. And people don't bother with something they don't understand, especially at a price of $1000/unit that was $13 a year ago.

I still talk to people who think they have to buy a full bitcoin and are waiting for the price to drop by 50%.
Its psychological -- they think they aren't getting any value for less than 1 BTC.

Also, the wallet experience is absolute shit. as a UI engineer and usability guy, this was the main reason I didn't buy any in 2010 when i first heard about them. 2 years went by...and I still couldn't download more than 5% of the blockchain w/ my computer running and fan overheating for 2 days straight.

Sites like Coinbase are starting to change this...but then everyone says not to use web wallets, so there is fear there and people simply give up. "cold storage", "paper wallet", "encryption, backups" -- people don't know what any of that shit means.

Also, who is going to buy at $1000? I wouldn't buy a share of Google stock at $1000. I don't think Google will go to $10,000 anytime soon. I'd be a fool to buy at the all time high. People use the same logic on Bitcoin that they use for stocks.

Its a pain in the ass to acquire Bitcoins as well. You have to verify your account, know your routing number/account number, wait 5 days, then do a deposit to fund the exchange wait another 4-5 business days. I know this isn't Bitcoin's fault. But can you blame anyone for giving up? Then there's the option of using LocalBitcoins, and you risk getting shot or scammed.

Before you start flaming me, telling me I'm wrong, these are my observations over the past year both as a bitcoin enthusiast and someone who is constantly explaining what Bitcoin is to people.

So for Bitcoin to really take off, people need to think they are getting a value, mBTC should help with that. They also need an easy, secure wallet. I like strongcoin.com for that (i hope they support altcoins eventually). In my mind the wallet situation is the biggest problem.

The WinkleVoss Trust (which will be open to anyone) and traded on a real stock exchange, will probably be an easy way for people to invest in Bitcoin w/o the hassle. Traded on etrade, tdameritrade, etc. etc. in the environment they are used to. If it goes well, I suspect there will be other ways to invest soon to follow. This will drive the price to staggering levels if that happens...but people won't be holding bitcoins, so this doens't improve the bitcoin economy. Since there's nothing to spend at your merchants that start accepting.

There's also the deflationary aspect, why spend now when it will appreciate if I hold them instead. For people to spend, they need to have large amounts of mBTC. So 1mBTC for a cup of coffee isn't a big deal when you have 10k mBTC in your savings.

I think in 3-5 years time, we may see TDAmeritrade and other Forex brokers start to offer trading in BTC/Fiat pairs. Once this happens, there will be more stabilization as leverage and shorting will help stabilize the market. The current BTC exchanges would have been evacuated long ago if they were dealing with stocks and 60 second order lag times. Maybe coinsetter.com with their <1ms execution time will change all that and big money will enter the market unadulterated.

For what its worth, I'm extremely bullshit on Bitcoin. I think its the greatest revelation of our time. Since the Internet, or even Jesus. Maybe even bigger.

Don't you feel like there is something wrong with this scenario?

Uhhmm...no.  Why?  Because the general consensus is that cryptocurrency is the future, whether it is Bitcoin or something else, I've seen countless Bitcoin enthusiasts admit this much.

I want Bitcoin to be a success, I'm just really concerned right now because for all intents and purposes, the price seems like it should be going up.  *wide press coverage, exchanges like BTC China and companies like Coinbase saying their membership is skyrocketing, etc*  The fact that it isn't budging despite all this is leaving myself, and many others, very concerned.   Hence...OP's post.  

For me, there are 2 reasons why Bitcoin could rise:

1. The business around Bitcoin gets developed so you can buy more things direct in Bitcoin (without having to pay 10% or more fees).
This will take some time and give a steady rise in Bitcoin value.

2. In the "normal" world some financial crisis happens: example France or Italy are on the brink of default.
This will give a monumental rise (times 5 tot times 10) in a very short time (days, week).

in the words of my great-grandfather, and his grandfather before that.

patience, young grasshopper.

So bitcoin fails , it's called a ponzi , and a new crypto , 99% chance of being a clone will take it's place and succeed
Don't you feel like there is something wrong with this scenario?

Early adopters are of course happy with the value rising to what it is today, there is no question about that whatsoever.  However, other than a select few, most of them didn't really invest a lot of money into Bitcoin, they just bought at a super low price or mined.  Things are different now though, as the latest investors who learned about Bitcoin and bought in at $1,000 forked over large amounts of money for their Bitcoins.  If it continues to stagnate for too long, they are going to give up.  And if the only people to benefit from Bitcoin were the early adopters, Bitcoin is going nowhere, and all this "Ponzi/Pyramid" talk will be justified.  So yes, I think the stagnation is a bigger deal than people want to admit, something needs to happen soon.  

To answer OP's question, I think Bitcoin's fate rests in the hands of companies like Bitpay or Coinbase, and of new IPO trusts like Winklevoss's and SecondMarket's.  2014 is going to be the big year for them, as they are the ones that have the power to push Bitcoin to it's next plateau.  I think 2014 is the "make or break" year for Bitcoin.  Because if it fails in 2014, another cryptocurrency is going to replace it before it has time to recover.  

JUST LIKE IT DID FROM 10 AND FORM 1 AND FROM 17.
Patience!

Just how people didn't see any reason for it to ever reach 1000 back then , you're now the blind one .

Did you read anything I just wrote?  Like maybe these lines:


Would be super if someone could get what im asking, and provide a response to it.

This damn coin won't go over 10$. Yeee we're at 32$ Oh! We're back to 2$!

How about some patience?

Hi.

I'm the original poster.

I am not complaining that the price isn't going up.

I am stating that I don't understand *how* it will go up.

I personally feel that human beings on the whole, don't continue buying something that is $2000, $5000, $10000, $100000 per piece.

So im wondering what will facilitate the price to reach these levels.

mBTC theory is one theory.  But I am not convinced that will be sufficient.  

Why would mBTC have to mean an increase in price?  People can buy mBTC at $800 per bitcoin too.  Right?

So the only thing I could think of is this:

Lack of supply at any given moment, compared to the demand.

In this scenario, and this scenario only, would the price go up. People would be wanting to buy and the only "sell" orders are higher, and higher.

But in order for that to happen, there would have to be a lack of available coins right?

How will there ever be a lack of available coins when you can divide to the "millionths" ?

So what is stopping Bitcoin price from sitting right here at $1000ish forever, as people just buy some mBTC's-worth at the $1000 price for a whole bitcoin?

That is what I was trying to ask in my original post.

Something outside of the buying and selling trading market would have to catapault BTC to $10,000 per coin.

But for the life of me I can't think of what that element would be.

Maybe winklevoss trust, etc ... where people can buy whole shares in Bitcoin.  Maybe that's the thing which will enable it.

Pretty much none of the responses above addresses my original question.  Sorry if i wasn't being clear.

-Burger-