Topic: Goomboo's Journal - page 22. (Read 281462 times)

For those not waiting for the daily chart, he EMAs crossed back strongly a few hours ago. The price was around 69, it's now 75 already.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg1ztgSza1gEMAzm1g10za2gEMAzm2g21zv

Edit: And this is why I don't day-trade BTC<->Fiat! It crossed back 8 hours later. Score one for the daily EMA charts over the hourly charts.

I agree with your wise words.

On a side note I think certain strategies, like mine, do lead you to buy more when the price goes down (up to a certain limit) while at the same time keeping risk management in check.


I'm also wondering if your technique to buy and sell based on crossing moving averages can fail?

I think it can when the market moves sideways giving false signals accumulating many small loses into a large one.

How do you avoid that such scenario ruins your capital?

Great post Goomboo! I love the wisdom you convey

The observant speculator should make note of the thread titles that crop up on this message board during times of market volatility.  Of the current popular threads, over half are either questioning why prices are falling or essentially begging fellow coiners to “hold the line”.  Does either of these classifications of market participants seem prepared to handle market volatility?  One person seeks to find an answer before acting and another shuts his mind off to the possibility of market collapse.

During bull markets, when all seems well and unrealized profits grow every day, there seems to be very little need for discipline and risk management.  When prices are increasing by leaps and bounds, it is easy to mentally agree that discipline and a method are important, because after all, “if my account is rising, then I must surely be doing something right”.  The error underlying this reasoning is that your entire foundation is built upon emotion.  When the market collapses however, your foundation is shaken and you are either in denial or asking why (the most popular topics on BitcoinTalk these days).

There is an old market saying: “Bull market foster sloppy habits.  Bear markets cultivate a healthy respect for risk management and discipline.”  If you are currently asking why or thinking about doubling down in your BTC investment to “buy the lows”, I encourage you to consider using the current market conditions as an excellent teaching opportunity.  Learn discipline and practice a tested method. It is more important that you learn discipline from this endeavor than make money.  Luckily, in the world of trading, disciplined traders tend to be best positioned to ultimately profit.

Hi and welcome to the thread,

I have flipped through John Murphy's book, but I didn't find it too helpful.  After you've read 2 or 3 technical analysis books, the material becomes repetitive/boring.

In my opinion, this is a "must-read".  The book approaches technical analysis from an academic standpoint rather than the traditional path, which I view to be quite arcane.  What I enjoyed most about the book is that it doesn't only teach you technical analysis, but also provides decades of backtests showing you historic results.

Someone has recommended this thread on Reddit.

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1hgvjx/my_bitcoin_story/caullu6?context=3

The guy/gal seems to have netted some money putting in practice your lessons. Also Goomboo, are you familiar/do you recommend those books?

Alas, I did not :p

hey Goomboo... did you buy < $75   

Ah, I see what you mean!  Yeah, I keep the same 10/21 on the chart regardless of timeframe - it helps me quickly assess if the market is trending up, down, or sideways during that specific timeframe.

Thank you for the question

I just assumed that if you used a 10/21 on a D1 chart that if you were 'zooming' in to say an H1 chart that you would multiply to get the same lines, just at the higher granularity as now it is only looking at 10 hours rather than 10 days.

I am no expert, just pur assumption on my part, which is why I asked.   I just never paid that much attention to the bitcoincharts charts before, and as I have been using RTBTC as well my eye was drwan to it.

Yeah, I look at the 10/21 to gauge trend direction on every timeframe...I do not multiply when going to a higher/lower timeframe.

Thank you for the question and observation, but I'm confused: why would you think that I multiply when going to a different timeframe?

Goomboo... I noticed that the EMA values are the same on your daily and hourly charts, is this an oversite or do you not multiply when going higher resolution (240/504 for example)?

Even hourly traders, who are typically subject to more "noise", have been able to preserve their account balance from a 20% decline since the beginning of the month.

As I have said throughout this thread time and again: it is silly to blindly trust your wealth to the decimating volatility of this market.  You must have a method of cutting your losses quickly or you will be crushed.

Price has fallen 36% since the sell signal generated on June 6th, 2013.



The relentless sell-off continues.  There is no justifiable reason why a trend-following trader should be experiencing losses right now.

Yeah, RTBTC is a nice trading platform.  It has the feel of a professional trading platform like Bloomberg, but rather than costing $1,200 per month, it only costs $10.

Agreed. Did a 1 month trial based upon your recommendation just to see what it can do and have been very impressed so far.

The RTBTC platform has now launched and it has the cleanest visual market depth tool I have seen.

Bingo.  I agree with you 100%.

The last paragraph of my post is directed specifically towards traders of the system taught in this thread who have failed to take the recent exit signal.

Caught me!   I keep trying to bash the price so I can acquire more BTC, but I just can't seem to get the price low enough.

Glad you've learned from the thread.