So, besides being a good necroposter - twolifeinexile has decided to "stir the pot" on his own. What, couldn't find any more Atlas threads to resurrect?
"necroposter" - Learned a new word today 
Topic: Government ban on bitcoin will crash bitcoin or the other way? (Read 2706 times)
January 23, 2013, 02:54:15 PM
So, besides being a good necroposter - twolifeinexile has decided to "stir the pot" on his own. What, couldn't find any more Atlas threads to resurrect?
January 23, 2013, 02:47:08 PM
On what logical grounds could bitcoin ever be made "illegal".
Since when were laws crafted using logic?
They are LAWS, grounded in the LEGAL system. Obviously we can find holes in the logic of drug laws, but the basic premise that "drugs are bad m'kay", can be supported by real evidence. So I am still wondering on what grounds (ie what premise) could you make a p2p crypto-system illegal. Cryptography IS freedom of speech.
January 23, 2013, 02:46:28 PM
The U.S government is a huge, bureaucratic nightmare where dreams go to die.
I should know I've worked for them for 9 years.
Ok, ok, not necessarily true but I've taken this quote by generally respected famous person to heart:
"The only thing that saves us from the bureaucracy is its inefficiency."
Eugene J McCarthy
I should know I've worked for them for 9 years.
Ok, ok, not necessarily true but I've taken this quote by generally respected famous person to heart:
"The only thing that saves us from the bureaucracy is its inefficiency."
Eugene J McCarthy
When ever I'm stuck in a bureaucratic process and I ask myself "Why do we need this?" I have to think of this quote:
"The bureaucracy is expanding to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy."
Ok, here's my prediction:
- For the sake of example, we'll say that the US deems it illegal.
- A massive sell-off would occur
- Bitcoin would immediately lose at least 90% of its value (there are few who are interested in doing anything illegal).
- Other first-world countries would follow suit.
- Bitcoin would drop another 50% in value (total of 95%).
- It would continue to be used by niche/fringe crowds of libertarians and black market traders.
- Price would very slowly rise after a few months of shrinkage, possibly recovering completely and rising beyond even the current price levels, depending on how much it is used in the underground.
- Bitcoin would never achieve mainstream use at this point.
- Governments might create their own crypto-currencies, but create them in such a way that they still control the issuance of the currency. People would accept this as ok, because the government knows best, right?
January 23, 2013, 02:40:47 PM
On what logical grounds could bitcoin ever be made "illegal".
To prevent "tax evasion"Imagine if your boss paied you in BTC, BOOM, No more income tax.
That's not logical, you can do the same thing with Federal Reserve Notes.
Wouldnt it be?
I see what you mean tho, and Im in a position of confusion, so dont take my word for it
January 23, 2013, 02:31:14 PM
On what logical grounds could bitcoin ever be made "illegal".
To prevent "tax evasion"Imagine if your boss paied you in BTC, BOOM, No more income tax.
January 23, 2013, 01:59:32 PM
On what logical grounds could bitcoin ever be made "illegal".
January 23, 2013, 01:50:02 PM
The U.S government is a huge, bureaucratic nightmare where dreams go to die.
I should know I've worked for them for 9 years.
Ok, ok, not necessarily true but I've taken this quote by generally respected famous person to heart:
"The only thing that saves us from the bureaucracy is its inefficiency."
Eugene J McCarthy
I should know I've worked for them for 9 years.
Ok, ok, not necessarily true but I've taken this quote by generally respected famous person to heart:
"The only thing that saves us from the bureaucracy is its inefficiency."
Eugene J McCarthy
When ever I'm stuck in a bureaucratic process and I ask myself "Why do we need this?" I have to think of this quote:
"The bureaucracy is expanding to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy."
January 23, 2013, 01:48:01 PM
The U.S government is a huge, bureaucratic nightmare where dreams go to die.
I should know I've worked for them for 9 years.
Ok, ok, not necessarily true but I've taken this quote by generally respected famous person to heart:
"The only thing that saves us from the bureaucracy is its inefficiency."
Eugene J McCarthy
I should know I've worked for them for 9 years.
Ok, ok, not necessarily true but I've taken this quote by generally respected famous person to heart:
"The only thing that saves us from the bureaucracy is its inefficiency."
Eugene J McCarthy
oh, this is good.
January 23, 2013, 01:42:49 PM
There have been many instances of government bans on products & currencies, all throughout recorded history.
I can't think of a single example where, in the long run, a product or currency went down in price or in demand after a ban. Price always goes up, and demand stays the same or rises. Perhaps someone with better memory or research tools can provide counterexamples, but my guess is that they will be very small in number. Particularly for currencies.
Take a look at currencies banned right now (typically USD) in various economically repressive countries. In all these places, USD are craved, and carry nice premiums in black markets. Same thing will happen to Bitcoin if anyone is stupid enough to try to ban its usage:
Current countries with foreign exchange controls
I can't think of a single example where, in the long run, a product or currency went down in price or in demand after a ban. Price always goes up, and demand stays the same or rises. Perhaps someone with better memory or research tools can provide counterexamples, but my guess is that they will be very small in number. Particularly for currencies.
Take a look at currencies banned right now (typically USD) in various economically repressive countries. In all these places, USD are craved, and carry nice premiums in black markets. Same thing will happen to Bitcoin if anyone is stupid enough to try to ban its usage:
Current countries with foreign exchange controls
January 23, 2013, 01:36:31 PM
The U.S government is a huge, bureaucratic nightmare where dreams go to die.
I should know I've worked for them for 9 years.
Ok, ok, not necessarily true but I've taken this quote by generally respected famous person to heart:
"The only thing that saves us from the bureaucracy is its inefficiency."
Eugene J McCarthy
I should know I've worked for them for 9 years.
Ok, ok, not necessarily true but I've taken this quote by generally respected famous person to heart:
"The only thing that saves us from the bureaucracy is its inefficiency."
Eugene J McCarthy
January 23, 2013, 01:36:06 PM
Didn't the U.S. ban/outlaw the use and possession of gold way back in the day? How did that work out?
January 23, 2013, 01:18:27 PM
What government? Bitcoin does not need any government support or permission.
No, it doesn't but it would naive to think that a large government (like the US) or a coordinated government move couldn't cause significant disruption if it felt inclined.
That being said, I bet if I walked down the street and asked 10 people what silk road was, chances are 10 out of 10 would have no idea. Now if I asked those same 10 people if they knew about the Sandy Hook Elementary tragedy, I'm willing to bet 9 out of 10 would know what I'm talking about. BTC has obviously come a long ways since silk road, that's not what I'm saying, what I'm saying is politicians want votes and are too busy with bigger fish to fry (right now gun control). Until BTC becomes a mainstream nuisance that can buy votes, I don't think the politicians will care very much. A ban would just bring more attention at this point, something I doubt they want.
January 23, 2013, 01:10:14 PM
What government? Bitcoin does not need any government support or permission.
January 23, 2013, 01:01:07 PM
Strike bitcoin down, and it will become more powerful than you can possibly imagine...
January 23, 2013, 11:30:14 AM
*puts on tin foil hat*
you think the central banks don't know their currency is worthless
you think they don't see that people are waking up to this fact.
you think satoshi nakamoto invented bitcoin? hahahahaha
you think the central banks don't know their currency is worthless
you think they don't see that people are waking up to this fact.
you think satoshi nakamoto invented bitcoin? hahahahaha
January 23, 2013, 10:20:56 AM
Yes, ofcourse Bitcoin doesn't need any goverment to excists or function.
Though, it will hit Bitcoin hard if 'they' declare it as an "illegal currency".
Though, it will hit Bitcoin hard if 'they' declare it as an "illegal currency".
That is the point I am speculating and not that sure ("Bitcoin will be hit hard"),it may happen initially, but by doing this, they effectively remove a large liquidity out of this market, which cause a lot coins go cold wallet, and a "bitcoin in exile " p2p roaming in a "darknet", which perfectly make it a collectable in hidden world. Not only that, their ban will draw people's attention and make it more desirable just like drugs. And even a mafia profiting cartel could form)
Dude, that's already the case. For that matter, that's by design.
January 23, 2013, 10:19:10 AM
Yes, ofcourse Bitcoin doesn't need any goverment to excists or function.
Though, it will hit Bitcoin hard if 'they' declare it as an "illegal currency".
Though, it will hit Bitcoin hard if 'they' declare it as an "illegal currency".
It's already too late for that to matter. Certainly some governments will eventually declare Bitcoin illegal within their own borders, but a few in Europe have already acknowledged that it's a legal commodity. Even in the United States, an outright ban isn't practically possible for complex legal reasons. The Liberty Dollar isn't illegal, only it's production is, and only because of it's similarities to the US Dollar (which is a rediculous concept, but bitcoins don't, by their nature, use paper at all.) Regular citizens cannot be prosecuted for the mere possession of bitcoins, although transactions within the US will eventually be illegal; probably by a court precedent that finds that US to US transactions in bitcoins amount to evidence of tax evasion.
No matter how it all goes down, governments are notoriously slow to respond to such things as Bitcoin, and it's already too late to kill it. That point passed two years ago.
January 23, 2013, 10:17:30 AM
When Obama declares the War on Bitcoin, it is time to go all in.
January 23, 2013, 10:09:17 AM
Yes, ofcourse Bitcoin doesn't need any goverment to excists or function.
Though, it will hit Bitcoin hard if 'they' declare it as an "illegal currency".
Though, it will hit Bitcoin hard if 'they' declare it as an "illegal currency".
That is the point I am speculating and not that sure ("Bitcoin will be hit hard"),it may happen initially, but by doing this, they effectively remove a large liquidity out of this market, which cause a lot coins go cold wallet, and a "bitcoin in exile " p2p roaming in a "darknet", which perfectly make it a collectable in hidden world. Not only that, their ban will draw people's attention and make it more desirable just like drugs. And even a mafia profiting cartel could form)
All these effects, combining the fact not all government will ban this thing at the same time, very easily to cause a man-made reverse crash in the long run.
I am not saying this must happen, but I do feel this is a possible scenario and want to here people's arguments on both sides.
Thanks for the input, very appreciated.
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