This means that bitcoins are perfect for certain types of crime.
Especially kidnapping comes to my mind, since it solves an old problem with kidnapping.
For sure.
Regulators will want to unsolve that problem for the criminals one way or another.
Ordinary cash is barely tolerable in that regard - bitcoin won't be.
Unless you are really naive, its obvious that its going to start a new crime trends such as kidnapping and extortion as we are getting more and more poor and desperate people.
But.
What will happen the day that someone kidnaps a cute kid and ask for the ransom to be paid in Bitcoins?
This becomes something HUGE in the NEWS. The Bitcoin kidnapper, and its going to be reported all over the world.
There will be heated debates and a majority of the opinion will turn against Bitcoins and similar anonymous cryptocurrencies and rightfully blame them for making it possible to ask for anonymous ransomes.
The day this happens, Bitcoins will be abandoned and boycotted by many normal investors, business and normal persons.
No "serious" business will want to be associated with this currency.
If/when it happens its also likely that soon after, just like US blocks pokersites, they will block bitcoin sites and make it illegal to trade with Bitcoins.
European and Asian countries will follow
This would have a huge impact on the price of Bitcoins and nearly destroy them as people panic sell as the value drops, only very few wanting to buy.
I can even see how the people working on Bitcoin will be grilled and held responsible in TV shows.
Recieve hatemails from angry mothers and have to go out and say they were naive and Bitcoin was not meant for these things to happen and that they have stopped working on it or are working on a solution.
Unless there allready is a hidden solution. If there is and the kidnapper is caught, than Bitcoin will be the hero.
I admit I hadn't really thought through the public perception and PR ramifications of this. You're right - it could be devastating.
(Devastating to any mainstream or even semi-mainstream bitcoin aspirations that is. It would still have it's place as a niche underground thing)
I think most people assume the solution would be to track when the coins move in the blockchain, and combined with a few subpoenas and cooperations with major exchanges - do some tracing to try to get closer to the source of the funds.
I don't think this will be good enough.
Bitcoins will still have a place in black markets etc but it will never get legal in US and EU unless there is a way to blacklist adresses.
Even if its possible to trace Bitcoins its enough that a single crazy person think its impossible to trace them and kidnap a kid and ask for Ransome to get the public opinion to hate the coins.
Maybe there acctually needs to be some way in the client or in a cryptocurrency to mark the money legit or illegal.
All there needs to be is a way for clients to check if an adress that money comes from has a message
on a site. Saying that the adress is a illegal adress.
That's right - by adding a 'taint' system with a very public face, the regulators have the advantage that now even the fairly stupid crazies should realize they're going to get caught. The disincentive to even engage in the crime is an important aspect.
The question than would be by who? Governments/police or exchange services or all of them?
The public and the forum people cannot do this and especially not the software coders.
Since this could open up to blackmailing, mob behaviour etc, unless you pay us, we will taint your adress etc.
These taint lists will be run by governments primarily I think. Any brick and mortar business must comply with authorities.
Once people find their bitcoins are being taxed at the checkout depending on how much 'taint' they have - they'll upgrade to wallet software which saves them money.
Once a certain number of their peers upgrade - they'll find their coins less acceptable even in personal exchange, so the system is viral in that regard.
Many governments will run blacklists - and perhaps there will be aggregated subscriptions available.
And how will this work in a world?
I think that governments will simply cooperate.
The US will have one list, russia another but most exchanges will have to demand that all lists are clean.
There might be exchanges that dont demand clean lists, but you will probably get less money for your coins at those.
Whitelisted coins will allways be in a higher demand since you will be able to spend them anywhere in the world.
I would imagine it working like this.
The person will see the warning message associated with the adress.
The message could even be of different kinds depending on in which countries they are blacklisted.
If they are proved to be illegal or suspected to be illegal and what type of crime.
"Warning the coins in that adress are from a serious crime. Accepting them is a crime in US, EU etc list of countries."
Please send those coins back and report to us.
Or in another case.
"Warning the coins in that adress might be stolen, accepting them could be a crime in your country"
It will smear onto your adress unless you send them back.
This smearing would make it impossible to make a new adress that cleans the coins.
Would it even be possible? It probably would.
I suspect that rather than just a flat out ban on accepting the coins - they'll be taxed heavily upon entry into an audited exchange or merchant.
They would be 'cleaned' at those entry points once the fee is paid.
But the question remains.
Will the government bother with such trouble?
I dont think they will unless bitcoins are really big.
It will probably just be easier for them to outlaw Bitcoins.
They could "force" well somewhat force, by making it illegal to not do a check against their database to se if a bitcoin adress has some message or not.
Sites that does take money from blacklisted adresses will be taken down or shut out.
This will force people to use a client that can see those messages unless they dont care but that would mean that
they will not be able to use their coins on other than black markets.
If it would be possible, it could make stealing Bitcoins by hacking less interesting and especially kidnapping and asking for ransom.
I think they will bother, if it has a reasonable chance of deterring the crime and/or catching the perpetrators, and if the alternative of banning or doing nothing wouldn't alleviate the problem.
I suspect both these things are true.
Outlawing bitcoins ultimately wouldn't keep the market small enough to prevent this sort of thing. Geeks and others who appreciate bitcoin would still use it for certain things, and it would (after a long slow growth) thrive as an underground currency.
It would be a balancing act.
By publishing taint lists mainly for the worst crimes, the tainted-coin pool is small, and even the average rebellious streaked person is inclined to prefer untainted coins.
If the governments go overboard on the taint list - they provide more liquidity in tainted coins, because those coins still have some value in purely black market exchange.
So.. their best bet in discouraging bitcoin-ransom crimes is not to go overboard with the lists. Keep the tainted coin pool small. Not much of an incentive to kidnap if you can only spend your loot with kidnappers and terrorists. If however.. governments taint for a large number of drug related crimes - then they massively increase the market for and use of tainted coins.
Taints applied to anything and everything would have less stigma than taints applied judiciously.
What if the stolen Allinvains coins adress was marked as illegal?
It would have meant that when they tried to cash them out a MTGox they would not had been able to do so. MtGox would probably not have accepted those coins.
Saving Bitcoin from atleast one crash.
Their only option would have been to cash them out in the black market.
But at that market they would be worth much less.
I think that even most black markets would check the list.
They would be to curious to see why the coins are blacklisted, some would not accept certain types of coins.
This would also make it less attractive to acctually try and steal Bitcoins since their value would increase.
In the longterm it would probably also mean that you will have to whitelist you adress if you want to use the coins at any bigger company.
Question is if there will be greyzones.
Coins that are not whitelisted or blacklisted.
Thinking of it, it will probably end up with the governments blacklisting all the coins and adresses that are not whitelisted?
Go to the IRS and whitelist them.
I can only see that or all Bitcoins getting illegal in the longterm, but I´m taking longterm 10-20 years.
I agree this is a longterm thing. I'm not sure about the 'whitelist' concept. That doesn't really make sense to me at this stage.
I see them 'tainting' certain addresses (with various public and private labels) - and marking certain coins which have a taint further back in their history as 'fee paid - now clean' once they pass through certain audited merchants/exchanges.
I don't think 'Go to the IRS and whitelist them' is a practical solution for the government. Just like being overzealous on the taint-lists - that would simply keep the bitcoin blackmarket liquidity larger - and wouldn't work well on an international basis.
But the question is why should a government bother with having Bitcoins legal unless there are advantages.
I can only see this happen if the people demand Bitcoins, because they dont trust the government printing the money
and because it means banks cannot charge whatever fee they want.
If Bitcoins grow bigger the governments will deal with Bitcoins one way or the other.
The first thing they will do is ofcourse try to regulate the exchanges.
And after that there will more steps that follow.
What would Bitcoins getting legal mean?
Bitcoins getting legal will also mean that their value will increase, since
it would mean that they are here to stay and can be adapted by everyone.
It might still be possible to have anonymous adresses in some countries as long as they pay taxes
and there will probably be higher taxes on them.
I really like the concept of Bitcoin, with less power to the banks, and no government printing etc.
But the anonymity is going to be a huge obstacle for it no matter if we like it or not.
Governments could outlaw bitcoin, or tax it heavily at regulated merchants to discourage its uptake - but that would make bitcoin an underground thing that still has enough interest and liquidity to be used for some crimes such as kidnapping, without giving the government a lot of ways to prevent or punish those crimes.
By applying taint lists, but not going so far as to alienate the average rebellious-streaked geek, they may be able to keep the marked coins with a generally high stigma, and low spendability, as well as encourage some users to cooperate in reporting on sight.
If they taint like crazy for run of the mill drug/prostitution/politics etc etc - then they'll reduce their own effectiveness at fighting the serious issues such as terrorism/kidnap/assassination markets.
I guess some governments will get this wrong - some will eventually get it right.