Topic: Green shoot analysis - volume increasing - page 2. (Read 2972 times)

Thanks for the clarification!

ah yes i see what you mean now. not sure if it can be said that this data alone predicted the movement we just saw but it was a good bull signal to notice. well done.

--arepo

Thanks!

Certain methods work better for certain asset classes than for others. Waves and TA in Bitcoin tend to act more like commodities than stocks (wave-5 tends to be the longest from a price perspective whereas stocks have longer 3rd waves)
Bitcoin, being so new, takes time to find what works for your specific style of trading, so it can be more difficult. I do find that because there are so many "HODLers" and the lack of desire to learn TA by many here, some things that work very well in FOREX and commodities, don't work so well in Bitcoin. Others work quite well. It's' really up to you and how well you understand a method to determine if it's right for you. I do pretty well, but I'm not going to share my special sauce.

Thanks very much - I read through some of your presentation and I will do so again alongside the other one tomorrow when I have an hour or so to think about it.

Could I ask you if you have found that Bitcoin generally translates well into traditional forex analysis or is it more difficult to judge, perhaps due to factors such as "hodling" and people's expectations that it will go far, perhaps a high proportion of Bitcoin owners who are not traders, etc. What are your thoughts on this?

Yes, Elliot Wave Theory. There is a bit of a learning curve to it, but it's not that hard once you get the basics.
I wrote up a consolidation of the basics on another forum:
https://community.bitfinex.com/showthread.php/45-Elliot-waves-to-Fibonacci

This is a more in-depth read:
http://www.forexhit.com/learn-forex/elliott-wave-principle.html

I haven't got a clue what EW (Elliot Waves?) are but would be grateful for a link to a concise explanation if you have one.

I wasn't really pointing out my call for my sake. It was more to show the merit that EW can have with determining some tipping points

I think he saw that 

Your wish delivered.   Gox has broken 839.

 

I knew those green shoots were telling me something! 

Well doesn't this data (the volume bars at the bottom of the image) show consistently bullish up movements, at more regular and certainly more voluminous rates than the downward red movements? Please let me know if I have misread it.

im sorry to say that you're looking at this image through green-colored glasses. if your "green shoots" carry that much significance, than shouldn't the "red slides" carry the same? in this image, there are about an even number of them. also, as many other posters have pointed out, volume really matters.

anyway, i'm just not sure about what conclusions you are drawing and what conclusions even can be drawn from this particular data.

--arepo

The relative price stability in Bitcoin recently also calms my nerves but the increasingly thinning volume (in contrast to your thread title) does give cause for concern. With such low volume, next time a whale makes a splash could see a dramatic move in either direction, but given recent market machinations, are we more likely for a dramatic move up, or a sudden panic inducing drop? What if there are still a lot of Chinese coins being held by people who have kept an amount in reserve awaiting further clarification on the Bitcoin situation from their government, and if nothing changes, then the majority of these coins are still to be dumped?

Looking back at the April 2013 crash, Bitcoin looked like it had stabilised at around $150. Had anyone bought some BTC at these prices and held, then today they would be laughing, but anyone buying and holding back then, would have seen the value of their investment more than half. Everyone knows this and everyone wants best value for themselves, everyone also knows that China still presents a certain immeasurable X-Factor between now and the 31st January, or the next Bitcoin statement from the PBOC.

I have seen this all with gold and silver investment. I started tuning into precious metals in 2010 (first time I had surplus capital to invest in anything), jumped on-board and watched my physical 'in yer hand' bullion coins almost double in value in the case of gold, and more than double in the case of silver. I was very well versed in all the goldbug and silver stacker theories, read several books on the subject, read copious blog posts, watched hours of documentaries and you-tube 'expert' interviews. I could have hammered anyone into the ground debating the PM fundamentals, TA, loose central bank credit creation policy. In short, the meteoric rise in gold and silver all made perfect sense, and when it started to correct, it all made perfect sense that it was just stabilising preparing for the next leg up. When it went down further, out came the conspiracy theories of 'precious metal take downs'.

In short, I have been on this emotional and intellectual roller coaster before and recognise a lot of similar sights, sounds and smells, albeit condensed into a two month period as opposed to several years.

"Thin ice" is an interesting way to put it and it certainly sounds like an appropriate description when you think of what a whale would do if it landed on an icy pond!  

But that description applies less well if we are not in a panicky or fearful market. And I don't think we are so much now (at least all things being as they are we are moving out of the panic phase).  

Right now I believe things are more stable than you think. The reason we are moving slowly is because the psychology is quite balanced. Most sellers think their Bitcoins are worth more than the current price and they are content to wait. One or two or a few think this price is fair to sell at and their walls are getting nibbled at. And it looks like we have a significant number of nibblers!

So now we have to see who will stop hodling first: those hodling Bitcoins or those hodling fiat. Remember also that for all those hodling fiat ready on an exchange, there are more waiting (could quite easily be a lot more) for their fiat to be processed by the exchange or bank so that it is available to them. And of course, there are Bitcoin hodlers with cold storage who might decide to move some of their coins onto an exchange.

For me the over-riding question at this point is a basic one. Is Bitcoin going to succeed? I think it is, and I believe that if the majority of the people I have outlined above think it is also then the market price will go up. If the majority are pure speculators who either don't understand Bitcoin properly (which could lead to a lot of fear) or who actually think it might well fail soon but want to get in on a "last wave" or whatever, then I think the price will go down.

I am a simpleton and of course there are other factors including almost chance events like convincing (but maybe wrong) news reports that could have an effect. But there we go.

Well, volume is down on the last 24 hours, 48 hours, 72 hours, overall.

I also notice that Huobi accounts for 50% of all Bitcoin trades at the moment. This is a Chinese exchange. There is of course the argument that most of these trades are bots playing pass the parcel and also the fact that by the end of this month, the 50% trade volume of this exchange and its other Chinese mates will be gone.

Bitcoin has been as 'stable' as i have seen it for months over the past week or so, but is it skating on thin ice and is that ice getting increasingly thinner?

Should be an interesting month, but not as interesting as February when we will see where Bitcoin really stands minus the Chinese influence.

Of course we are... If Gox breaks $839, the next stop is likely $900-950 ($1,000 being possible) before chances of another sell-off begins.
I know many of you don't believe in Elliot Waves, but I would wager a guess that at least some of the whales do. That said, a major bearish count becomes invalidated at that price point.

Note that there are other possible bear counts, so this does not necessarily mean the bull market is back in full force.

MatTheCat, you didn't read my last post. I am looking at microcosmic events to imagine the next market move.

Look at other threads here (Arepo's notes for example) and you will see that many think we are at a tipping point and it is difficult to call either way. At this stage I don't think 10 days ago matters so much as right now!

One explanation could be that there is a bot who puts of asks and another bot who grabs them. The selling bot seems to be programmed only to put in orders when there is low liquidity and the buy bot only acting when there is high liquidity. So the price seems to be smashed against an invisible askwall.