Topic: Group Bet Gamble on Just Dice. - page 2. (Read 2316 times)
Dabs, at what percentage of investment in this pot does it turn to a win-win for you, given your (presumed) investment at JD?
Sounds some what suspicious.. Also even if there was a 10% (Or 1%?? Any chance is still applicable) chance you would run off with the $20k pot if you win, that would still leave all 'investors' at a much lower EV than if they didn't do this & gambled on their own. It's just lowering your EV for no reason apart from a small kick of hitting the max profit ;P
Good luck anyone who wishes to participate though
Good luck anyone who wishes to participate though
Yeah. That's what I said, only shorter.
It's like we're both sock-puppets.
Anyone interested in a Group Bet?
Interesting idea, but I'm not sure I understand.
Why would I take part in a group bet when I could just make the bet myself? I get the same odds, the same payout, and I don't have to trust you to actually place the bet.
I can see it making sense for me, because it doesn't feel right playing Just-Dice myself since I have access to the server and its delicious secrets. But that only applies to me.
I guess there's the coolness factor. "Look, we're putting a 9k BTC bet on 98%". You could end up placing the biggest bet in Bitcoin dice-site history* that way. Is there any reason I'm missing?
According to organofcorti's blog post:
Quote
The largest bets were at the maximum of 500 BTC and happened several times since the start of the year, but none were the highest in terms of USD. The larget USD bet was 400 BTC at US$125.40 / BTC for a US$50160 bet.
That's just for SatoshiDice, but that is probably the biggest 'dice site' bet to date, although I hope Just-Dice beats that record soon. We had three 100 BTC bets today, and have had a 200 BTC bet a couple of days ago, so it's possible.
Sounds some what suspicious.. Also even if there was a 10% (Or 1%?? Any chance is still applicable) chance you would run off with the $20k pot if you win, that would still leave all 'investors' at a much lower EV than if they didn't do this & gambled on their own. It's just lowering your EV for no reason apart from a small kick of hitting the max profit ;P
Good luck anyone who wishes to participate though
Good luck anyone who wishes to participate though
Anyone interested in a Group Bet?
Currently, the max profit on just-dice is about 94.41 BTC. Which means, you can bet the maximum of the following:
The idea is to decide on a collective bet, what chance, how much, if I do a martingale with it, or if I just bet it all on a single bet.
For example, for the 50% chance, I collect 96.63 BTC from everyone into a cold wallet address (which I will GPG sign) and people post their transaction information and I will properly record and account everyone and how much they contributed.
Once the total is reached, I get the funds, deposit them into just-dice, and bet the whole amount on 50%. If I win, I withdraw the prize, then allocate to everyone the correct percentage, then send out the appropriate BTC.
Of course, this is a gamble. If I lose, I will show the bet id and link to it, so you all know, we all lost.
If there is enough interest or pledges, I will publish an escrow address to be used for this purpose. Majority must decide on what chance to play, and how much to collect, but the goal is to hit the max profit.
Please do not give BTC you can not afford to lose.
Currently, the max profit on just-dice is about 94.41 BTC. Which means, you can bet the maximum of the following:
Code:
chance payout max bet
98 1.010204082 9280.60
97 1.020618557 4592.94
96 1.03125 3030.40
95 1.042105263 2249.12
90 1.1 946.99
85 1.164705882 574.96
80 1.2375 398.73
75 1.32 295.93
70 1.414285714 228.58
65 1.523076923 181.04
60 1.65 145.69
55 1.8 118.37
50 1.98 96.63
98 1.010204082 9280.60
97 1.020618557 4592.94
96 1.03125 3030.40
95 1.042105263 2249.12
90 1.1 946.99
85 1.164705882 574.96
80 1.2375 398.73
75 1.32 295.93
70 1.414285714 228.58
65 1.523076923 181.04
60 1.65 145.69
55 1.8 118.37
50 1.98 96.63
The idea is to decide on a collective bet, what chance, how much, if I do a martingale with it, or if I just bet it all on a single bet.
For example, for the 50% chance, I collect 96.63 BTC from everyone into a cold wallet address (which I will GPG sign) and people post their transaction information and I will properly record and account everyone and how much they contributed.
Once the total is reached, I get the funds, deposit them into just-dice, and bet the whole amount on 50%. If I win, I withdraw the prize, then allocate to everyone the correct percentage, then send out the appropriate BTC.
Of course, this is a gamble. If I lose, I will show the bet id and link to it, so you all know, we all lost.
If there is enough interest or pledges, I will publish an escrow address to be used for this purpose. Majority must decide on what chance to play, and how much to collect, but the goal is to hit the max profit.
Please do not give BTC you can not afford to lose.
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