Topic: Guess when the next bull market will start! - page 4. (Read 1403 times)

This is the crypto market, not some ordinary market that happens to follow a trend. The crypto market cannot be predicted. The price may jump or fall anytime. It is true that the market does follow the charts of previous years, but that does not happen every time and might deviate from it. Just remember this, in the long run the market will tend to go upwards. So instead of predicting prices and making yourself uncertain, you better keep holding your investment.

No one has any idea about next Bull Run or may be something else because no one can predict the future exactly and almost all predictions about Bitcoin’s future value are uncertain to its actual values when we experience them actually. I have no correct prediction but it is clear that predictions will be uncertain and I think that it will take two months more in order to regain its value and make an excellent position again.

Actually it did not really matter when the next bull run will start but what matter is that alot of adoption especially the instructionals' one is going on and many people are becoming aware of blockchain technology these days than in the past.  I believe that we are better off now than before and the next bull run may be next year or 2020.

The overall bitcoin adaption rate is good. People are showing faith in bitcoin and they are trying to use it in the real form of currency for the sale and purchase of goods. Many institutions are adopting it and soon it will spread more. In this context, it does not matter when the next bull run start. It may be by end of this year or next year.

People are predicting that it will start in November because of the entire "Remember remember the 5th of November" meme and the fact that in 2013 and 2017, it had a crazy rally then. There is also the Bakkt which supposedly was moved onto December launch.

However like everything in life, since everybody expects November to be bullish the exact opposite can and most likely will happen. Instead it can go down or it can do what it does now and is basically trade sideways.

There is about a week to go before November starts and the markets are completely dead, so it should tell you something.

But in hindsight its easy to tell when the bull-run started after the fact, the $5800 might of been the yearly low or it might of been a good price to get out of Bitcoin if it breaks.

You can suggest whatever you want. The implication was that it's foolish to declare the bear market over because by any conventional standards, it's not. Dow theory, long term moving averages, lower highs/lower lows all say there's been no reversal yet. In terms of Wyckoff cycle analysis, there's been no sign of strength to confirm that this range was an accumulation (rather than distribution) schematic. What kind of TA do you practice that says the bear market is over? It sounds like a crystal ball.

How would you quantify the odds at 5% anyway?

The thing about Wall Street is, the brokers and investment banks are creating infrastructure for demand that doesn't exist yet. Why has Morgan Stanley said they haven't launched derivatives yet? Because the current clearance activity is so low and there is no demand from their clients. BlackRock is literally the world's largest asset manager and their CEO recently said none of their clients are interested in Bitcoin.

Give it time. I'd be wary of getting your expectations up too much by the mere launch of trading products.


I'm not a bear. I'm actually quite neutral. "Sitting on hands" is what a good trader does in a tight range while waiting for breakout.

I'm just trying to temper this blindly bullish bias I see all over the forum right now. When bulls become really confident, it's usually a bearish sign.

I totally agree with you and understand your views very well. Remember that the 2017 bull run was a fall out of what happened in 2016, this time in 2016 bitcoin was in a bear market.  I expect mid 2019 to be a very wonderful time for us to see another upwards movement that will push bitcoin above $25,000. Goodluck to all of us.

I can suggest anything I want, and if it goes up in the coming months then I am right. So why can't I suggest it? There is no indication that Bitcoin will break down the support that has held all year long. I'm not saying it is totally impossible that the bear market would extend itself, but I'd give the chance of that happening about 5%, especially with BAKKT coming soon, other Wall St firms getting ready with their own services. Most likely thing is a few months of sideways trading and then the start of the next bull market. If the price did drop, all the bears like you who think it will drop will buy in because that is the drop they've waited for, and all the bulls who see the incoming bull run will buy cuz thats a better price than they ever thought they'd get again, so any drop would be short lived and likely just result in a quick turnaround to rising prices.

Markets often range before continuation. In this case, we could be ranging before downside continuation. Ever heard of a bear triangle, or a bear flag? These are "sideways" ranges that occur in between downtrends.

It's a bear market until proven otherwise, since that was the last trend. Bulls need to make a higher high to even suggest the bear market is over.


That's why some people consider it a descending (bearish) triangle. Lower highs, horizontal bottom.

OP here, I guess BAKKT is actually starting trades in December, not November. November its just opening up allowing institutions to sign up. I think probably it will take a couple months for institutions to dive in, but as they slowly join I think we'll see a gradual price rise, and at some point even the bears will realize that the bear market has been over since early September and the bull run will get going. By February I think we will undoubtedly be in the next bull market.

Well all of us is hoping that bull run start soonest but like others said we don't know when bull run starts. The important is to hold and be patience to what we have in crypto because all things will be back on track again. And hopefully this November is a great month for all of us.

Indeed I expect that would be happening this November, and as the current dips of the value goes on more demands will be arising soon. Don't rush your holdings yet, because you will regret everything if you lose it will cheaper price in the market. Be strong and hold on your assets in order to gain a better profit soon.

Don't worry about that guy. He either doesn't know what he is talking about or explained it very poorly. There are no bitcoin tokens, and it is nothing like Tether. BAKKT buys bitcoin to back all of the Bitcoin being traded on its exchange, holds it in its own custody solution for its Wall St clients that use the exchange, no different than any other crypto exchange except likely with BAKKT instead of mostly being people bringing bitcoin to the exchange BAKKT will be buying up Bitcoin and selling to Wall St players who just bring in their money and they can then trade Bitcoin over the exchange. The more players that join BAKKT to trade or invest the more Bitcoin BAKKT has to buy up from elsewhere. In time it will probably dwarf any other single crypto exchange since the Wall St whales who will play on it make the average Bitcoin whale look like a minnow.

Sideways trading is not a bear market, and not recovering does not mean we are still in a bear market. We are between the bear and bull markets.

The chart for 2018 makes it pretty clear that the bear market is over. Of course there is some very small chance that this is wrong, but it seems highly unlikely that the bear market will continue. What we're seeing is simply a classic turnaround. Look at the charts for this year. The bottom of ~6000 was repeatedly hit all year starting in early february, with each time producing a jump up, but each time producing a smaller and smaller jump - lower highs but with a solid unwavering bottom.

After that final lower high at end of August / beginning of September of $7400, when the drop from that came and the price maintained the 6000 floor it became clear the bear market was over. There is no more room for lower highs with only ~$1400 between the floor and the last high. So, predictably, the price is now just hanging around between the floor and that last high, with low volatility, in the transition time between bear and bull markets. Check out 2015 if you want an example. That cycle was longer than this one, but from like Feb to Oct of 2015 the price was just chillin between 200 and 300, that is the point we are at now in this cycle. We're only a month and a half into this transition so it is very possible it lasts for several more months into 2019, but we can say with very high confidence prices aren't gonna drop anymore and that the start of the next bull run is incoming in the coming months, possibly weeks if BAKKT turns out to be a big catalyst, but I think months is more likely as I think it'll take some time for the effects of BAKKT and the start of Wall St money to be felt.

Halving is not some news event. It is a lowering of the supply of new coins onto the market, a direct cause and effect of price becaue it directly effects supply. If a price is stable at x amount for a couple years then this supply is halved, it is guaranteed to do one of 2 things: enter a new higher price floor or die. There are no in betweens, which makes the halving event a reliable indicator for the next pump. People who point out that the price doesnt' change the day the supply halves don't understand that the market takes a few months to feel this change in supply.

My thoughts exactly.

I'm actually tempted to guess it's further off than that, because so many people expect the next halving to coincide with the next bull run. Most people can't even fathom another long term bear market like after the 2013 bubble. That's why I know it's possible.

It seems everyone is expecting a November bull run to happen, but in current scenario I really don't see it happening unless suddenly there's mass adoption once again, or the hype kind scenario once again is repeated when futures were coming. I'm not really aware Bakkt but I'm reading mixed reviews regarding it, if it'll be good for bitcoins then it's more than welcome. I'm expecting 10k by Q2 of 2019.

Next bull market? This one started in 2009 and hasn't finished

Rather than putting so much attention in this year for bitcoin, I would rather be putting more focus in 2019/2020 for a bull run instead. Sure, a lot of development will come up within this short time, and we might probably get to see some slight or huge level of adoption as the case may be, and we all know what all that would mean for the space entirely. Nonetheless, I guess we will just have to be patient to see what the trend and time will give us eventually.

My guess is that we'll see a small alt pump in Q4 2018 and a true bull run in late 2019