Topic: 📕📙📗Guidebook for ICO organizers and ICO investors📗📙📕 - page 3. (Read 10596 times)

  Cool article. Deep Analytics on ico. Though I do not particularly like to read, you need a video to do with so much analysis

Good article and interesting analysis of ico. A lot of useful information. For a long time have not seen such volume of tests.

I lost $ 500 in eth in the Block Broker project. The project became a Scam and I did not receive a refund. After that I will no longer invest in ico

Now, many who invested in the ico, has passed on investing in the pyramid on smart contracts. Investing in ico is a lottery in which you can lose everything.

Ico is now collecting very little money. People are afraid to invest, there was a lot of Scam for 2017-2018. Thank you for your deep analysis. I'll use your pictures in my presentation, if you don't mind.

Recently he got into the ICO Scam. Invested $ 50 and the project on the last day of the ico was gone. The site, telegram group and all information was deleted. I can not imagine how people who lost money in ico will invest in other projects. I for example will not invest in ico

You're wrong. Now you can invest in ico and make money on it. There are many examples in recent years when ICO tokens go to the exchange and are traded there two, three times more expensive than on the ico.

Of course, we understand that we can’t collect information about all ICOs on our platform, but still we are striving for perfection and our platform already contains massive amount of data. Hopefully, in time we’ll be able to obtain even more data.

As you yourself said, it is hard find a good ICO project. That was the aim of our research, to give investors at least a couple of hints, so they could tell a quality ICO from Scam.
We believe that ICO market will grow and develop.

I have long been disappointed in the ico and do not invest in it anymore. Tokens with ico are traded on exchanges below the ico price. Until bitcoin starts to grow, investing in ico is very dangerous. This is my personal opinion!

Friend writing such an article is a huge work. When investing in ico, you will need to be very careful. I have been investing in ico for a long time and your information is not new to me. But for beginners, your advice will help not to lose money when investing in ico

Such a guide is very late, and investors in the cryptocurrency market rarely invest in ICO projects. At present, it is almost impossible to find a good ICO project. A good quality ICO project will only appear in a few months. I don't know if the future ICO will continue to exist?

Enough to print packs of new projects that absolutely do not show themselves on the market

Now it is very difficult to find a quality ico. Recently, more and more scams appear.People who lost money in Scam projects are unlikely to invest in other ico projects. We must fight against the scammers together. The article contains an interesting Analytics. I'm afraid to imagine how long it took you to create such a large article

This will help investors in choosing the right ICO to start investing, but in my opinion this is still not an absolute reference, this is a long observation about ICO and certainly very interesting, almost 1 hour I tried to understand this, and well in a few aspects are indeed very valid but still cannot determine which ICO really will be something else in the future, because sometimes the data will not be in accordance with the facts, only data is very necessary because 70% of the data determines the level of truth, thanks. This thread were great

Useful hints for ICO investors or how to choose the best ICO for investment - I will rely on your advice when choosing a new ico for investment

Thank you for this article. It was interesting to read this information. The cryptocurrency market is now falling, but even in this market there are more than 400 ico-projects this is a good result for blockchain 

4. Additional information for investor

A separate section should highlight the results of the analysis of ICO investment returns (ROI), which may be of interest, first of all, not to the organizers, but to ICO investors. To provide visual differences on these diagrams, in contrast to the previous ones, which are interesting to both investors and organizers, green color is used. ICO profitability is used as a parameter characterizing the success of ICO.


Pic. 9. The dependence of ROI on the number of domains referring to the ICO website.

The diagram from pic.9 demonstrates relation between the ROI shown by ICO and the number of domains that contain links to the ICO website. On the horizontal axis the data is divided according to groups of ICOs:

     •   ICOs with websites having 1-20 referring domains;
     •   ICOs with websites having 21-40 referring domains;
     •   And so on to the group of ICOs, ICOs with websites having 181 to 200 referring domains.

The vertical axis shows the average profitability of ICOs that are part of the group (ROI). The size of green circles on the diagram illustrates average amount of funds in millions of USD raised by ICOs from certain group. The trend line is marked in blue.


Pic. 10. The dependence of ROI on the number of ICO referring backlinks.

The diagram from pic.10 demonstrates relation between the average ROI and the number of ICO backlinks. On the horizontal axis the data is divided according to groups of ICOs:

     •   ICOs with websites having 1-50 backlinks;
     •   ICOs with websites having 51-100 backlinks;
     •   And so on to the group of ICOs, with websites having 451-500 backlinks.

The vertical axis shows the average profitability of ICOs that are part of the group (ROI). The size of green circles on the diagram illustrates average amount of funds in millions of USD raised by ICOs from certain group. The trend line is marked in blue.


Pic. 11. The dependence of ROI on the number of messages in the official ICO topic on Bitcointalk.

The last of diagrams characterizing ROI is illustrated in pic. 11. It shows dependence of achieved ROI on the number of messages in the official ICO topic on Bitcointalk. On the horizontal axis the data is divided according to groups of ICOs:

     •   ICO topic has 1-200 messages;
     •   ICO topic has 201-400 messages;
     •   ICO topic has 401-600 messages;
     •   And so on to the group of ICOs, with the number of messages in their topics between 3201 and 3400.

The vertical axis shows average ROI for the group of ICOs. The size of green circles on the diagram illustrates average amount of funds in millions of USD raised by ICOs from certain group. The trend line is marked in blue.


5. «Icing on the cake»

In the previous section with green graphs for investors, we presented only the results of processing the collected statistical material. Currently we will not risk making generalizations basing on that data. Nevertheless, the “green” section, in our opinion, should also contain something that is ready for immediate practical use.


Pic. 12. Dependence of funds collected during ICO (as percentage of the declared ICO Hard Cap) on Activity and Potency.

The areal diagram, presented in pic. 12, gives a good idea on the dependence of the success of an ICO on project’s Activity and Potency. In addition, it shows very clearly, which particular AEP-parameters have the greatest impact on the success of ICO.


6. Conclusion

Making a brief summary of the research, one can carefully try to formulate the main conclusions drawn by the technical analysis of the statistical data available for ICO.

Useful hints for ICO organizers or what it takes to make your ICO project successful:

     •   The number of issue-related domains referring to your ICO project should be in the range of 300 to 400 or a bit more than that;
     •   The number of backlinks from issue-related referring domains should be in the range of 600 to 900 links;
     •   Do not use links form irrelevant domains;
     •   Do not overvalue the amount of Hard Cap needed for your project. The optimal amount of Hard Cap for ICO is between 2 and 40 million USD. Hard Cap exceeding 72 million USD almost certainly leads to failure of the ICO;
     •   When ordering paid comments on various media platforms in to promote your ICO, do not pursue quantity, pay attention to the quality of comments, especially in terms of EAP;
     •   During the ICO, continuously monitor the evaluation of comments from EAP perspective. The greatest attention should be paid to the value of the Potency parameter, which characterizes the interest of the audience in your ICO. If the average value of the Potency parameter falls below the value of -0,01, organizers should promptly take marketing or other measures to gain public interest. ICOs with Potency less than -0,01 most likely will not raise event 10% of announced Hard Cap;
     •   When analyzing EAP parameters, be aware of the fact that they are also effected by the paid comments you order. Consider the proportion of customized comments in the total number of comments left by users;
     •   Carefully study the diagram from pic.12 – it clearly shows which target values of the EAP parameters you should strive for, to collect the maximum percentage of your ICO Hard Cap.

Useful hints for ICO investors or how to choose the best ICO for investment:

     •   Pay attention to the number of issue-related domains, referring to ICO project. The ICO success increases when the number of referring domains reaches 300-350;
     •   Pay attention to the number of issue-related backlinks, leading to the website of ICO project. The potential success of ICO increases when the number of backlinks exceeds 500-600;
     •   Avoid investing in ICOs, with Hard Cap amount greater than 50 million USD;
     •   It makes sense to avoid ICOs, with more than 2400-2600 messages in their official topics on Bitcointalk. If such ICOs seem an attractive investment for some reason, one should study them more carefully;
     •   All other conditions being equal, it is better to invest in ICO with highest Potency parameter;
     •   Avoid investing in ICOs, with Potency parameter remaining below -0.01 for a long time.

Certainly, ICO investors should not limit themselves to technical analysis only. The combination of ICO technical analysis briefly described above, manual analysis of White Paper and project team, signals available on the market for crypto-investors – these tools can make choice of the right ICO much easier.

For the ICO organizers, the proposed methodology for technical analysis will allow determining in advance indicative parameters that ICO must meet to be financially successful. Tools recommended for technical analysis of ICO:

     •   Traffic, referring domains, backlinks – SemRush, Ahrefs, ICO Catalog;
     •   Raised Cap, Hard Cap, ROI – ICO Data, ICO Drops;
     •   EAP-parameters: Evaluation, Activity, Potency – ICO Catalog.

The study used statistical data of more than 1000 ICO projects held in 2018, information on them is publicly available (partially paid) on the above resources. To smooth the general picture and obtain more reliable results, during the calculations, some of the original data with minimum and maximum values were excluded from processing.

3. A couple of words about semantic differential and connotative meaning of texts

Now the fun begins. The attitude towards security services is rather ambiguous all over the world. Some consider them defenders of fundamental human values and rights, fighters against the world’s evil. Others, on the contrary, consider security services the main violators of fundamental rights, trying to monitor everything they can in order to put all the processes in society under control. We will try to use a part of the tools used by the special services for “peaceful purposes”.

A well-known American system Prism, used by the USA security services, is designed among other things for automatized monitoring of public mood in the Internet. 24 hours a day, Prism collects user comments on a large number of indicative (that is, for whatever reasons, currently relevant) topics from all open sources. And analyzes the attitude of users to these indicative topics. Interested people can study in more detail everything connected with the semantic differential and connotative meanings of texts. We will briefly explain the essence.

Each word, used in writing or orally, except for the usual and well-known meaning, also has the so-called connotative meaning. A whole set of connotative meanings, to be more precise. Connotative meanings can characterize a person’s real attitude to a topic, show how much person is interested, and reveal how much a topic induces to actions. In total, more than 20 different parameters describing the attitude of a person to the commented topic can be analyzed. User could comment on topic «The USA Democratic Party» something like that: «The Democratic Party – is the best party in this country! Democrats are our future. I wish to join democrats right now. Nothing can be better that Democratic Party. Democratic Party forever! ». Technically the text suggests that the user is keen on democrats. But analysis made with regard to exactly which words and in what order were used to express these thoughts can show that a person is not crazy about democrats at all. And even ready to do some harm to the democrats on occasion. Thus, the analysis of connotative meanings of words using the semantic differential technique allows us to reveal the true attitude of a person to the subject.

With the help of such a comprehensive analysis security services monitor, among other things, revolutionary sentiments in society. At the moment we are not interested in monitoring the public image of power in the countries of the Middle East and the degree of revolutionism in the countries of South America. But the implementation of semantic differential for the analysis of investors’ real attitude to current ICOs sounds intriguing. The described method fits perfectly for our purpose.

The above-mentioned ICO Catalog collects users’ comments on current ICOs 24 hours a day and then analyzes each ICO by three parameters:

     •   Evaluation – users’ attitude to ICO on a scale from -3 (the most negative attitude) to +3 (the most positive attitude);
     •   Activity – shows willingness of users to take any actions related to this ICO (to buy token, to leave a comment on forum, etc.) on a scale from -3 to +3;
     •   Potency – shows how much users are interested in ICO on a scale from -3 (minimum interest) to +3 (maximum interest).
Having processed a huge array of statistical data, containing Evaluation, Activity and Potency parameters, collectively forming a group of so-called EAP-parameters, we obtained interesting data, which turned out to be nothing like “white noise”.


a. Potency Parameter

Let us start from Potency, the last parameter.


Pic. 6. The dependence of amount of funds raised during ICO (as percentage of the declared ICO Hard Cap) on Potency parameter.

Diagram in pic. 6 illustrates demonstrates dependence between declared Hard Cap percentage of funds raised during and Potency parameter. On the horizontal axis the data is divided according to groups of ICOs:

     •   Potency parameter is within the range of -0,06 to -0,05;
     •   Potency parameter is within the range of -0,05 to -0,04;
     •   Potency parameter is within the range of -0,04 to -0,03;
     •   And so on to the group of ICOs, with Potency parameter within the range of 0,11 to 0,12.

The vertical axis shows the average percentage of collected funds for each group of ICOs from the number of messages. The size of yellow circles on the diagram illustrates average amount of funds in millions of USD raised by ICOs from certain group. The trend line is marked in blue.

As expected, ICOs with Potency less than -0,02 did not raise even 10% of their Hard Caps. The total amounts of collected funds in US dollars for such ICOs are also characterized by small values. The success level of ICOs with Potency parameter exceeding -0,01 can be widely interpreted. However, the pattern of consistently high ICO success for high values of the Potency parameter is clearly visible. The total amounts of collected funds for ICOs with high Potency also have tendency to increase along with the growth of Potency parameter.

A short intermediate conclusion for ICO organizers based on the analysis of the diagram at pic.6 – organizers can’t directly influence the potency parameter, as it reflects the true interest in the ICO. However, reduction of Potency value to the level less than -0,01 during ICO is a serious indicator for making changes in the marketing campaign. It is a sign of lack of interest in ICO project and close a call that ICO may not raise even 10% of the announced Hard Cap.

A short intermediate conclusion for ICO investors based on the analysis of the diagram at pic.6 – study the Potency graph of ICOs at ICO Catalog and avoid investing in projects with average Potency parameter remaining less than -0,01 for a long time.


b. Activity Parameter

Certainly, Potency parameter characterizing the real interest of the audience in ICO is the most important among other EAP-parameters. The Activity parameter, belonging to the same group and characterizing the willingness of users to take actions related to the analyzed ICO, gives a vaguer picture. First of all, it’s because activity does not always reflect willingness to buy tokens. Desire to show some ICO-related activity may also manifest in the intention to leave a post in the ICO topic (not always positive, by the way), or closing the page with ICO description – the variability of the possible activity is quite high.


Pic. 7. The dependence of amount of funds raised during ICO (as percentage of the declared ICO Hard Cap) on Activity parameter.

Diagram in pic. 7 illustrates dependence between declared Hard Cap percentage of funds raised during ICO and Activity parameter. On the horizontal axis the data is divided according to groups of ICOs:

     •   Activity parameter is within the range of -0,07 to -0,06;
     •   Activity parameter is within the range of -0,06 to -0,05;
     •   Activity parameter is within the range of -0,05 to -0,02;
     •   And so on to the group of ICOs, with Activity parameter within the range of 0,17 to 0,18.

The vertical axis shows the average percentage of collected funds for each group of ICOs from the number of messages. The size of yellow circles on the diagram illustrates average amount of funds in millions of USD raised by ICOs from certain group. The trend line is marked in blue.

Probably, for a more detailed analysis of the diagram shown in pic. 7, it is necessary to use additional filters and conditions imposed on the initial data used for the analysis. Another option is using the cumulative parameters, constructed based on combinations: [Activity, Potency], [Activity, Evaluation] or [Activity, Potency, Evaluation].

For ICO organizers we can give cautious recommendation to keep track of Activity parameter during ICO and if it drops below -0,08, carefully make some corrections in the marketing campaign. Of course, from the graph in pic. 7 it does not follow that a low value of the Activity is expressly bad. However, the lack of desire even to write in the ICO topic is also difficult to call a good thing.

Short hint for ICO investors: as for the Activity parameter, it should also be recognized that it, apparently, is also a secondary parameter and should be considered in conjunction with other ICO parameters.


c. Evaluation Parameter

Strangely enough, the Evaluation parameter, which characterizes the real attitude of users to the ongoing ICO, gives the most unexpected picture. The diagram in pic. 8 shows a clear shift of a part of the data to the left side with respect to 0 of the horizontal X axis.


Pic. 8. The dependence of amount of funds raised during ICO (as percentage of the declared ICO Hard Cap) on Evaluation parameter.

Diagram in pic. 8 illustrates dependence between declared Hard Cap percentage of funds raised during ICO and Evaluation parameter. On the horizontal axis the data is divided according to groups of ICOs:

     •   Evaluation parameter is within the range of -0,10 to -0,09;
     •   Evaluation parameter is within the range of -0,09 to -0,08;
     •   Evaluation parameter is within the range of -0,08 to -0,07;
     •   And so on to the group of ICOs, with Evaluation parameter within the range of 0,04 дo 0,05.

The vertical axis shows the average percentage of collected funds for each group of ICOs from the number of messages. The size of yellow circles on the diagram illustrates average amount of funds in millions of USD raised by ICOs from certain group. The trend line is marked in blue.

The existing shift of some of the values along the X axis to the left of 0 can be caused by various factors, such as:

     •   The overall shift of the estimates caused by the shifted scale in the Evaluation calculating algorithm itself;
     •   The presence of a large number of low-quality comments, ordered by the ICO organizers themselves, in the messages analyzed for the calculation of the Evaluation parameter. They ordered, of course, positive comments to liven the topic. The literal meaning of the comments ordered was positive and the ICO organizers accepted the work. The system simply shows the true attitude to the ICO from people who carry out the order for the topic. This option seems the most plausible;
     •   Poor attitude to something does not always mean lack of desire to make money on this “something”;
     •   The combination of the above-mentioned factors.

For now, we refrain from recommendations on use of the Evaluation parameter.

Amazing write up I will be sure to send you some merit for this once I have some more available,

I guess the key factor now in ICO's is to advertise and have linking domains to the ICO.
I noticed a lot of people reaching out to professional advertising and marketing company's for this purpose and many of the ICO calendar  sites too.