Topic: Halving and Blackrock (Read 250 times)

I will skip the first two questions as you have already received many great replies. I will focus on the last one.

Anyone can fork and create their version of bitcoin. We already have hundreds of such forked coins dying in the market. But if you want to make changes in the real bitcoin itself, you need to reach a consensus from the mining community. At least 95% miners need to support that change. There is a great article you can read to learn more about BIP.

https://galea.medium.com/bitcoin-development-who-can-change-the-core-protocol-478b8ac5fe43

Hope this helps!

Interesting question. Anyway as others already explained the best they can do is a hard fork, and then people would be free to choose whatever "bitcoin" they prefer. Let's say that seeing what happened in the past the best idea is to stick to the original bitcoin, I highly doubt the real bitcoin community would ever join a fork made by investment funds and banks, those are the main reasons bitcoin was created in the first place.

Yes, I don't know, and Yes, respectively.

The halving divides every reward from mining a block in 2, which is why it's called the halving in the first place. As of now it's BTC6.25 per block, in the future it would only be BTC3.125 moving forward until the next halving. This effectively reduces the total supply of bitcoins in circulation and makes bitcoin a more scarce, deflationary asset in the process.

I don't know if there's any ROI calculator out there as I haven't gone out of my way to find out if there is, but there should be if I'm correct, just scour the internet.

Anyone can make a derivative of bitcoin and call it theirs, it has been done in the past with bitcoin forks like bitcoin cash, bitcoin gold, and more. Blackrock creating a proof of stake bitcoin would prove futile though as PoS, while efficient, is not as secure as many tech journalist make it out to be.

@OP re: my asking where you came up with rewards being 0.0003BTC/day.
Ah.
You are confusing Rewards - which is what Block each pays (+ all fees and currently 6.25+BTC ) with what any specific piece of hardware can earn per-day. Two vastly different things.

Ja the 1/2ving will cut earnings (for that hardware) in half but that is a drop in the bucket compared to how much the ever-rising increase in difficulty impacts earnings per-machine.

In short, nothing new here... This has been the case ever since the 1st BTC was mined and Satoshi et al got other folks to join in on the fun  
Case in point - sshot of my setup back in Aug 2014
 6.42Ths brought in 0.15BTC or $90/day...

The most annoying question is the no 3, Bitcoin is forever a PoW algorithm coin and nothing can reverse the engine again, it's over and too late for anyone to do this, not even Nakamoto can reverse the engine anymore, newbie I think you should start doing your own research on Bitcoin because your question is so off that it show that you haven't read a single thing about Bitcoin before making this post.

Bitcoin is fully decentralized, do not expect what happened to Ethereum (abandoning PoW for PoS) will ever happen to Bitcoin, Ethereum was wired in such a way that the founder can tampered with whatever they want and change it to their own will, but not Bitcoin, if that's what you mean.

Bitcoin has so many forks in the past like Bitcoin white, Bitcoin Private, Bitcoin cash and so on, they introduce faster transaction speed and other few things, but Bitcoin still triumph over them all.

although the reward halves
what you also have to consider this the most economical efficient mining cost to mine less coins
because there is an ultimate bottom of planetary acquisition costs no one wants to sell below
which this month sits at $23k(its a number that sits below the markets but supports the markets above it)

now this is where alot of guess work comes into speculating the futures especially when trying to plan out the next 5-10 years

initially if we were to say all electric costs /kwh stayed the same for the next 10 years. hardware cost, hashrate all stayed the same
then the halving would mean 2x cost in 2024 and again in 2028
meaning if its currently $23k to mine the cheapest coin on the planet. it would be $46k in 2024 and $92k in 2028

however mining competition cost can change
imagine hardware and electric were same cost per kwh.. but the hashrate increased 2.6% per fortnight
meaning it would be 21 difficulty jumps of 2.6% or 65% in 300 days

would mean the day before the halving the min mining cost would be ~$38k which day of halving becomes $76k in 2024. yep $76k instead of $46k

now if you add in an inflationary 10% of electric cost which is about half of overall cost so a 5% overall increase. would be ~$40k just before halving which become $80k at the halving

so in a more hashrate increase scenario as just described. the baseline underlying value support can be anything from $46k-$80k just on these presumptions alone
where by the actual exchange market prices then peculate above that baseline

so have fun trying to look at all the variables.. and remember hashrate can go down too

of course.. next gen asics can come out that could do 2x more hashrate for same electric or less so those numbers can also be lower..

have fun speculating
or you can just quote the karate kid painting a fence 'upppp, dowwwn'

Forking BTC will not be profitable for them. There are tons of institutions filing spot ETF, if BlackRock forks, everyone that is on onboard will move to another. They expect the real BTC and not the forked coin.

But it's true these institutions like POS tokens. They must have gotten a lot of ETH by now, institutions like to make money without having any risks, and being a validator will be a dream.

That's right, the money miners get per transaction is divided by 2 after certain periods of time (or after certain number of blocks), so that mining power becomes less profitable, which can lead to leaps in BTC price during halving.

Yes and that's the exact situation as it has always been, you received half ofbthe previous reward of the last halving and so it continues till all the blocks have been completely mined.


If you're investing on bitcoin, know that this is not a daily income generating business or scheme, you are rather investing on a volatile digital cryptocurrency called bitcoin, whereby during this your period of investment, you're expected to hodl while there will be bear and bull markets during this time till we finally arrived at bitcoin Halving where the market surges and there comes a new all time high and your investment would have been very fruitful.


No


Through BIPs

You're forgetting difficulty will also go up if the price will do so, in your scenario when Bitcoin is at 400 000, the reward per th/s is 50 cents compared to 7 now and miners will not plug additional gear when an S19 is making 70$ a day burning 5$ of power?  

Use this:
https://insights.braiins.com/en/profitability-calculator
Play with both the price adjustment and the difficulty, throw in the fact that your gear might go boom, your energy price might go up twice and then you have a better picture of it!


Even if they have 99.9% of the hashrate it doesn't mean a thing, let's not even think of the other fact, they have 99.9% of the hashrate and they decide to make the coin go Pos? lol! No matter how much hash rate you have you will not be able to stop anyone to ignore and never stop using the old code!


No, it's not, that's not how a fork works.
They could do it without a single S1 mining and they could end with a dead coin like Bitcoin gold when if they had 99.00% of the hashing power.

1. Yes, it is correct to assume. The reward is fixed, as mentioned by others, the current reward is 6.25 BTC and the next halving will make it 3.125 BTC. Network/transaction fees will be unchanged.

2. Not as far as I know, as historical price movements will be tremendously different to previous price movements. If there are any, they are likely to be very inaccurate and not to be taken seriously.

3. Possibly. There are already rumours that they are aiming to pump bitcoincash and use/control this instead/alongside using Bitcoin in EDX markets.

It is per block not per amount as what others have explained, the reward block is the one that gets reduced.

Well, the thing on this one is that there's no accurate calculator depending on many factors if you happen to operate your own miner. Too many to consider just to get to the ROI. It sounds interesting when you see the calculation and projections on how quick the ROI and high the profit may be but all of those are just projections.

Just like with what Ver did and made his own bitcoin cash as a bitcoin fork and we've seen the bitcoin SV, so they're also able to do the fork but it won't directly have any code affection to the actual and real bitcoin. They'll just have their own version of Bitcoin as an altcoin but they can't change the real bitcoin's POW into POS.

No calculator will be able to calculate ROI of a cryptocurrency investment in terms of future USD value. For example, one can affect Bitcoin's price by banning bitcoin mining, by investing in Bitcoin (like Blackrock), by tweeting a things about Bitcoin by influential people, like Elon Musk did when he created a hype around BTC and then tweeted some bad staff about it.
Bitcoin can be 20K, 100K or 3K or any number in 5-10 years. No one can predict it.

Like said above, anyone can fork bitcoin. Blackrock can fork bitcoin, they can also create their own coin but in the end, it will be meaningless if no one other than them support it. Also, if BlackRock manages to acquire a lot of bitcoin, it will increase bitcoin's price and at the same time, if they fork and move on PoS Bitcoin, no one is stupid enough to follow Bitcoin that is led by BlackRock. Current OG Bitcoin is not popular without a reason.

Not assumption because it is hard coded in the Bitcoin Protocol. Bitcoin block rewards will be halved after every 210,000 blocks.

Controlled Supply
How is the 21 Million Bitcoin Cap Defined and Enforced?

No estimation for ROI for miners because it will depend on their cost to mine bitcoins and price of Bitcoin at the same time.

Equivalent network time is interesting. It shows how many time miners will have to spend more to mine 1 bitcoin with time. It's not ROI estimation.

They can fork like hundreds of useless forks and many of them died.
How Many Bitcoin Forks Are There? You will be surprised!!!

Anyone, as stated by stompix, can fork Bitcoin.  They don't need 51% of the hash.  They just need to modify the code and create their forked version of Bitcoin.  Earlier altcoins are forked from Bitcoin.  So yes Balckrock and central bankers can fork Bitcoin.


Yes it can't be called halving if the current reward is not halved.


No, no one can predict the estimated reward per day that calculate 5-10 years in the future because hashrate and difficulty regularly changes plus the demand factor is also unknown.

1. Yes, each halving results in miner reward being cut in half.
2. No, it's impossible to calculate ROI (you mean ROI for mining right?). 
3. I guess it's possible if they will acquire at least 51% of all Bitcoin hashing power.

1. Yes
2. There's, you can even try it yourself but it can never be accurate. Predicting the future closely accurate isn't possible currently.
3. No, they cant except they can have 51% control over the blockchain without that would end up creating an hard fork like BCH, thus an altcoin

S19 XP 141 

Current BTC mined per day  0.0003
https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/bitcoin/calculator?h=140.00&p=3010.00&pc=0.07&pf=0.00&d=52350439455487.00000000&r=6.25&er=1&btcer=30000&ha=TH&hc=5000.00&hs=0&hq=1

After Halving it drops to 0.00017
https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/bitcoin/calculator?h=140.00&p=3010.00&pc=0.07&pf=0.00&d=52350439455487.00000000&r=3.125&er=1&btcer=30000.00000000&ha=TH&hc=5000.00&hs=0&hq=1


 

Again we must ask - where are you coming up with ? current rewards are 6.25BTC + fees collected and will not be down to 0.00015 until literally over 100 years.

You're asking about BTC forks aka altcoins. BTC is BTC. ANY fork is an altcoin. Period.
At best that puts this topic belonging in Bitcoin Discussion board Not here which is exclusively for Bitcoin.

Wrong. After next halving BTC's block reward will be 6.25/2 = 3.125 BTC


You cannot predict difficulty adjustments, so it is pretty useless to try to calculate your futures potentials earnings with this timescale


Wish you it will be like that, but no one will never know about BTC's future price

I am somewhat cynical and believe the debt-laden countries and central bankers simply will not allow retail schmucks independence via crypto blockchains. Without interference, I believe BTC will climb to $ 150K in 2024 and $ 400-500K by 2028. If mining reward drops down to .00015 next halving. it appears I can mine around .25 BTC in 5 years with a 141TH XP. Still profitable factoring in .075/KHW based on the projected BTC price.

If they fork to POS, does this negate the 21 Million BTC max supply or will they contribute to the 21 million max supply?

Similar to ETH becoming a government-run POS disaster, I see Blackrock forking to a POS and commanding their lackeys in government to regulate miners into capitulation or bankruptcy. Thus gaining control over the purest form of cryptocurrency. It's really a crime the dregs of humanity who have debauched our currencies for centuries are now trying to usurp a truly functional financial system that affords us independence from the perpetual crooks.

Does this sound far-fetched?
Can a POS BTC and POW BTC truly co-exist?

No one can know what the future holds: the BTC mining difficulty, the various regulation changes in different countries, the capacity to produce ASICs of varying levels of performance, are absolutely unpredictable on a 5 or 10 years timescale.

Wouldn't it be too easy if we were able to predict the price of BTC and its difficulty? 


And even if they created a proof-of-stake fork of BTC, I don't know who would be crazy enough to turn away from BTC for a PoS-based fork.
As stompix said, it's been done before, and the result speaks for itself.

Yes, the halving is correct but not the sums, the block reward is 6.25 BTC per block and will be halved to 3.125BTC per block


No, but you can check in some back alleys, maybe you will get an old cat lady with a more accurate crystal ball.
But don't pay upfront for the prediction!



Anyone can fork Bitcoin and have their own version, you can do it also if you have basic knowledge.
There is already a Bitcoin Pos fork:
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoinpos/

But, you can't force people to use your forked coin! That is in a normal country, if we talk about NK style, that's different!

1. Is it correct to assume that each halving will result in a 50% reduction in rewards?
( If current reward is .0003 BTC, reward after halving will be .00015 ) ?

2. Is there a good calculator for ROI and estimated rewards ( per day ) that calculates 5-10 years in the future or allows an input for estimated future value of BTC ?

3. Will BlackRock and the central bankers be able to fork BTC into a proof of stake coin? ( How are changes to BTC created ?)

Thanks,
Ron