Some research has come to the conclusion that about 5% of the world’s population has come into some contact with cryptocurrencies, but here it should be taken into account that many invest in altcoins exclusively.
Topic: Equivalent Network Time (Read 539 times)
Some research has come to the conclusion that about 5% of the world’s population has come into some contact with cryptocurrencies, but here it should be taken into account that many invest in altcoins exclusively.
Only a very few percentage of the population have been actively exposed to Bitcoin and fewer companies or businesses accept it. I believe those in now are still very much early adopters.
Some research has come to the conclusion that about 5% of the world’s population has come into some contact with cryptocurrencies, but here it should be taken into account that many invest in altcoins exclusively. I would even dare to say that the first 20 years may be considered a period in which anyone can be called an early adopter, at least in the sense that it is a period in which a 99% circulation supply will be achieved.
After that, there will be only 210 000 BTC left for the next 100+ years of crypto mining, and all focus will shift to trading because the new mined BTC will no longer play a big role in the supply chain.
Thank you for saying that but I don't think that ten years fit the title for an earyl adopter because it ten years, I would probably say that they are in the middle, I think there's a time that is only limited to people who are really early adopters. The scarcity is also amplified by the hype, increase in population and advance in technolgy.
If you consider the diffusion of innovation model, you'll find out that ten years can easily fit into the early adopter period, especially when there is still an enormous room for larger scale adoption. Bitcoin has the potential to be around for tens or hundreds of years from now.Only a very few percentage of the population have been actively exposed to Bitcoin and fewer companies or businesses accept it. I believe those in now are still very much early adopters.
I usually hear people say they regret not getting into Bitcoin earlier and how they should have paid more attention to it when they first heard about it then or five years ago; but in reality, anyone who is aware of Bitcoin now is still a very early adopter, and ten or five years from today, anyone who buys Bitcoin now would be most likely significantly up on their investment.
Bitcoin's scarcity model is one of the most important qualities of the network.it not only increases the value of the asset, but allows it to grow without becoming inflationary, as the shortage in supply compensated the equivalent increase in first value.
Thank you for saying that but I don't think that ten years fit the title for an earyl adopter because it ten years, I would probably say that they are in the middle, I think there's a time that is only limited to people who are really early adopters. The scarcity is also amplified by the hype, increase in population and advance in technolgy. Bitcoin's scarcity model is one of the most important qualities of the network.it not only increases the value of the asset, but allows it to grow without becoming inflationary, as the shortage in supply compensated the equivalent increase in first value.
I never liked those estimates because they are based on the very bad assumption that something was lost just because it wasn’t used for x years. By that, some of my coins have also been lost because I haven’t touched them in at least 5 years, and I believe there are a lot of such cases. I tend to believe that the total amount of lost coins is at least half as much, with at least 50% of what Satoshi himself mined.
I know weaknesses of that estimation.It is better if we have estimation with a transparent methodology & are aware of its weaknesses. So from that chart, given stats and methodology, we can estimate the lost Bitcoin is about 4.2M, with the cut-off (5-year+ unspent UTXO) and with awareness of the issue you mentioned.
It is only bad if people are not aware of the methodology's weaknesses.
Currently, probably 4.2M BTC was lost [1]. The cut-off to estimate probable lost BTC here is 5-year+ unspent UTXOs.
I never liked those estimates because they are based on the very bad assumption that something was lost just because it wasn’t used for x years. By that, some of my coins have also been lost because I haven’t touched them in at least 5 years, and I believe there are a lot of such cases. I tend to believe that the total amount of lost coins is at least half as much, with at least 50% of what Satoshi himself mined.
Additionally, more Bitcoin will be lost. I expect the rate of lost Bitcoin will be slow down than in the past.
I think people have become much more cautious after 2017, and with the rise in popularity of hardware wallets the chances of losing have diminished significantly. Most will be careful, but that doesn't mean there won't be any losses - maybe even some intentional ones, because some people still send BTC to burn addresses for reasons known only to them. Some crazy rich man could buy BTC and then intentionally burn these coins just to show that it can do it.
The Equivalent Network Time (ENT) for Epoch 3 (since May 2020 till now) and Epoch 6 (circa May 2032) shows that miners will have to spend about 384 seconds to mine 1 BTC since May 2032, that is 8-fold spent-time than currently.
Consequently, Bitcoin will become more scarce, at least in eyes and perspective of Bitcoin miners.
Additionally, more Bitcoin will be lost. I expect the rate of lost Bitcoin will be slow down than in the past. Because the higher the BTC price is, the more carefulness people will take care of their Bitcoin and BTC wallets.
Currently, probably 4.2M BTC was lost [1]. The cut-off to estimate probable lost BTC here is 5-year+ unspent UTXOs.
By the way, let's look at the post in June 2010 from satoshi about lost Bitcoins.
[1] https://unchained-capital.com/hodlwaves/
Consequently, Bitcoin will become more scarce, at least in eyes and perspective of Bitcoin miners.
Additionally, more Bitcoin will be lost. I expect the rate of lost Bitcoin will be slow down than in the past. Because the higher the BTC price is, the more carefulness people will take care of their Bitcoin and BTC wallets.
Currently, probably 4.2M BTC was lost [1]. The cut-off to estimate probable lost BTC here is 5-year+ unspent UTXOs.
By the way, let's look at the post in June 2010 from satoshi about lost Bitcoins.
Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more. Think of it as a donation to everyone.
[1] https://unchained-capital.com/hodlwaves/
The old adage is: time is money. That was of course pre inflated dollars or pounds etc. But time is not fiat money, but money with objective value. Fiat is inflated away at the whim of politicians and so is consequently a poor store of the value you create with your life.
Bitcoin is protection for the hours of your life.
Bitcoin is protection for the hours of your life.
Just yesterday I saw this video of a Poker player I follow:
Alec Torelli: The Future of Money: Ep.1 - What is Money?
Which is somehow related to this. He was commenting that money is closely related to time, because it takes us x hours of work to earn x money. And at the end of the video he pointed out that the best form of money would be the one that best represents time: our time is limited, so the best currency would be a limited one and not like worthless fiat which is potentially unlimited.
The vision of owning bitcoin representing network time is very interesting. I think we could establish an equivalence with a new way of thinking, like: if you own 1 Bitcoin today (2021) you own x network time which is equivalent to x working hours of someone who earns the median salary in x country (normally for international statistics the USA is used as a reference, like to calculate the number of millionaires in the world, where the dollar is used as a reference, but it could be applied to any country).
Alec Torelli: The Future of Money: Ep.1 - What is Money?
Which is somehow related to this. He was commenting that money is closely related to time, because it takes us x hours of work to earn x money. And at the end of the video he pointed out that the best form of money would be the one that best represents time: our time is limited, so the best currency would be a limited one and not like worthless fiat which is potentially unlimited.
The vision of owning bitcoin representing network time is very interesting. I think we could establish an equivalence with a new way of thinking, like: if you own 1 Bitcoin today (2021) you own x network time which is equivalent to x working hours of someone who earns the median salary in x country (normally for international statistics the USA is used as a reference, like to calculate the number of millionaires in the world, where the dollar is used as a reference, but it could be applied to any country).
each coin of mine is worth only 12-24 seconds each
..
but how come there is no value in the fact that my utxo's are now built with like 400,000 blocks ontop of it thus making them far far far more difficult to re-org the blockchain to spend them
it would cost a hell of alot of mining power to rebuild a change from 2012. far more then rebuilding a chan that just edited the last block today
so why again is a 2012 block worth less than a 2021 block
look i totally get it coins in 2012 were only 12seconds of time which were based on pretty mucch gpu.
which is like 120 watts for 12 seconds so pretty much pennys
but ever thought of a representation where utxo with more confirms are worth more
..
but how come there is no value in the fact that my utxo's are now built with like 400,000 blocks ontop of it thus making them far far far more difficult to re-org the blockchain to spend them
it would cost a hell of alot of mining power to rebuild a change from 2012. far more then rebuilding a chan that just edited the last block today
so why again is a 2012 block worth less than a 2021 block
look i totally get it coins in 2012 were only 12seconds of time which were based on pretty mucch gpu.
which is like 120 watts for 12 seconds so pretty much pennys
but ever thought of a representation where utxo with more confirms are worth more
Thanks to fillippone for the interesting article, I didn't even think about it. To be honest, each person also has his own time and it will end sometime.
Hardly any of the users care about what will happen to Bitcoin in 50 years or more, because life is short.
Translation into Russian
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5343087.new#new
Hardly any of the users care about what will happen to Bitcoin in 50 years or more, because life is short.
Translation into Russian
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5343087.new#new
Your Equivalent Network Time is a reversed presentation of Deflationary supply chart.
Indeed, I think I didn’t invent anything here.
But my goal was focused on improving awareness on the scarcity of bitcoin future generations will face.
So every Satoshi stacked today, could mean a world of difference in a few halving’s time, and I think this “alternative representation of the reality” could make people think more about that!
Equivalent Network Time are based on bitcoin values at levels higher than 20 thousand (previous halving ATH). These calculations will only be correct if Bitcoin continues to remain above that ATH during all 6.25BTC halving.
Bitcointalk donations and last bitcointalk 10th anniversary is another example. more than 50 members have been awarded prizes for 1 Bitcoin while one user was paying 10 times that amount to get a donor rank.
2)
Advertise on this forum - Round 9 (2011)
Current state:
10BTC 1 Goat
7BTC 7 Jonathan Ryan Owens
17 BTC
______________________
Advertise on this forum - Round 338 (2021)
Auction ended, final result:
Slots mBTC/Slot Person
4 20 BTCsquare.net
5 18 DogecoinMachine
38mBTC or 0.0280 BTC
_________________________
Halving calculation:
three halving: is equal to 17/8.
Real One:
current prices is less than 2.125 BTC
You can get better results by tracking all ads rounds
Chipmixer started in 2017, with a payoff of 0.0375 BTC, when maxing allowed posts. Last May they reduced their payoff to a max of 300 USD per week, or roughly weekly 0.05 BTC.
Bitcointalk donations and last bitcointalk 10th anniversary is another example. more than 50 members have been awarded prizes for 1 Bitcoin while one user was paying 10 times that amount to get a donor rank.
2)
Advertise on this forum - Round 9 (2011)
Current state:
10BTC 1 Goat
7BTC 7 Jonathan Ryan Owens
17 BTC
______________________
Advertise on this forum - Round 338 (2021)
Auction ended, final result:
Slots mBTC/Slot Person
4 20 BTCsquare.net
5 18 DogecoinMachine
38mBTC or 0.0280 BTC
_________________________
Halving calculation:
three halving: is equal to 17/8.
Real One:
current prices is less than 2.125 BTC
You can get better results by tracking all ads rounds
Indeed, I think I didn’t invent anything here.
I don't offend you. You made a creative presentation for the fact the bitcoiners know. Impressively, your creative presentation can make them think deeply and think differently about the scarcity of bitcoin.They perhaps will think bitcoin is more scarce after they see your topic. It is your success.
Quote
But my goal was focused on improving awareness on the scarcity of bitcoin future generations will face.
So every Satoshi stacked today, could mean a world of difference in a few halving’s time, and I think this “alternative representation of the reality” could make people think more about that!
Mark your words. Miners are people who mostly understand your implication. They mine bitcoin, sell bitcoin and each four years, they look at bitcoin they sold with regret. Because they mine less bitcoin with same ASICs they have. So every Satoshi stacked today, could mean a world of difference in a few halving’s time, and I think this “alternative representation of the reality” could make people think more about that!
Have fun.
Yeah, indeed an interesting way of presenting the distribution but..not my thing.
Unfortunately, I see it as a thing mainly aimed at nerds or a way of telling people how 100$ are more valuable when you spend on things that need 90$ in raw material to be produced than 100$ you won on the lottery. As long as you are not buying things with network time it is quite a useless pat on the shoulder for missing the train.
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As time is a scarce resource both for humans and the Bitcoin blockchain, I have stopped thinking in terms of total supply and started thinking about my Bitcoin balance as a claim on ownership of blockchain time.
Is anyone interested in exchanging some bitcoins based on their network time or on their age on bitcoin days?
Interesting way of seeing things fillippone, but as I said, I doubt anyone would sleep better at night knowing they are rich and fulfilled in time.
Remember:
1BTC=1BTC, don't go against this rule, infidel
Your Equivalent Network Time is a reversed presentation of Deflationary supply chart.
Indeed, I think I didn’t invent anything here.
But my goal was focused on improving awareness on the scarcity of bitcoin future generations will face.
So every Satoshi stacked today, could mean a world of difference in a few halving’s time, and I think this “alternative representation of the reality” could make people think more about that!
Your Equivalent Network Time is another method to describe the deflation of Bitcoin.
There are some charts that present same meanings. I don't include the chart from third article here, please visit it to see.
The second chart presents almost similar fact with your Equivalent Network Time. Those charts have same meanings, Bitcoin has a serious deflationary supply and it naturally become more scarcity with time.
Your Equivalent Network Time is a reversed presentation of Deflationary supply chart.
1 https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/
2. https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/bitcoin-clock/
3. https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-halving-explainer
There are some charts that present same meanings. I don't include the chart from third article here, please visit it to see.
The second chart presents almost similar fact with your Equivalent Network Time. Those charts have same meanings, Bitcoin has a serious deflationary supply and it naturally become more scarcity with time.
Your Equivalent Network Time is a reversed presentation of Deflationary supply chart.
1 https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/
2. https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/bitcoin-clock/
3. https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-halving-explainer
Very interesting point of view indeed! Never thought about how scarce time is. In fact, as time goes on, I personally tend to appreciate time more than I used to.
Of course, the "percentage of total supply" mindset isn't imo the best you can go for. Even by owning 21 BTC you would only own 0.0001% of the supply so who cares really? Unless you're a billionaire, no matter how much you purchase you'll still be left very far behind, lol.
In fact, we should stop counting Bitcoin as percentage, time or whatever else and just keep stacking up. It's precious, it's an asset like no other and we have a one-time opportunity to be part of it while the network is still young and maturing.
Of course, the "percentage of total supply" mindset isn't imo the best you can go for. Even by owning 21 BTC you would only own 0.0001% of the supply so who cares really? Unless you're a billionaire, no matter how much you purchase you'll still be left very far behind, lol.
In fact, we should stop counting Bitcoin as percentage, time or whatever else and just keep stacking up. It's precious, it's an asset like no other and we have a one-time opportunity to be part of it while the network is still young and maturing.
Another example I have been thinking about is the stacking sats through Signature Campaign.
Chipmixer started in 2017, with a payoff of 0.0375 BTC, when maxing allowed posts. Last May they reduced their payoff to a max of 300 USD per week, or roughly weekly 0.05 BTC.
So, stacking sats through Chipmixer, the time slowed more than twice, as would have been implied by halving, but 8 times.
Actually, this time is equivalent to the time in a couple of halvings, in 2029:
0,0046875 BTC is roughly the ordinary Campaign payment nowadays.
We are running ahead of time!
I finally made sense of Foxpup Merit Cycling Club Time Travel recurring joke: they are using Foxpup payments to actually travel in time, stacking more sats, quicker!
I will be stuck in time, forever.
Chipmixer started in 2017, with a payoff of 0.0375 BTC, when maxing allowed posts. Last May they reduced their payoff to a max of 300 USD per week, or roughly weekly 0.05 BTC.
Code:
0.0375 Bitcoin in May 2017, in Epoch 3, was equal to 0:00:02 of network time. Today, in Epoch 4 those are equivalent to" 0.01875 Bitcoins or the same 0:00:02 of Network Time
So, stacking sats through Chipmixer, the time slowed more than twice, as would have been implied by halving, but 8 times.
Actually, this time is equivalent to the time in a couple of halvings, in 2029:
Code:
0.01875 Bitcoins today are equivalent to 0:00:02 of network time. Those bitcoins in 01/2029, in Epoch 6, will be equivalent to 0.0046875 Bitcoins, or the same 0:00:02 of Network Time
0,0046875 BTC is roughly the ordinary Campaign payment nowadays.
We are running ahead of time!
I finally made sense of Foxpup Merit Cycling Club Time Travel recurring joke: they are using Foxpup payments to actually travel in time, stacking more sats, quicker!
I will be stuck in time, forever.
Interesting academic exercise but I disagree with the premise of the Reddit post which tells people to:
What people should know is that wealth making opportunities will continue to present themselves. Bitcoin is not the Alpha and Omega of the human struggle for generational wealth. If you were not early into Bitcoin, you did miss a shot of a lifetime. The technology and information has enabled its believers to mint fortunes. Tech and Information will continue to do that. The question is whether you can be there. Putting ones time, money and effort in that is better than trying to cope with BTC ownership. Make BTC a compulsory part of your regular investment and stop fretting over "targets".
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Stop thinking in percentages of the total supply, and think about building your claim on the network’s time.
Happy thoughts about having a significant percentage of the network time does not equate to having the wealth that early adopters have made and continue to make. In my mind, this pushes the same narrative that the wealthy elite have pushed upon the middle classes throughout the last century of wage-slavery. "If you work hard enough, you will have a good job, a suburban home and can retire decently".What people should know is that wealth making opportunities will continue to present themselves. Bitcoin is not the Alpha and Omega of the human struggle for generational wealth. If you were not early into Bitcoin, you did miss a shot of a lifetime. The technology and information has enabled its believers to mint fortunes. Tech and Information will continue to do that. The question is whether you can be there. Putting ones time, money and effort in that is better than trying to cope with BTC ownership. Make BTC a compulsory part of your regular investment and stop fretting over "targets".
Just yesterday I saw this video of a Poker player I follow:
Alec Torelli: The Future of Money: Ep.1 - What is Money?
Which is somehow related to this. He was commenting that money is closely related to time, because it takes us x hours of work to earn x money. And at the end of the video he pointed out that the best form of money would be the one that best represents time: our time is limited, so the best currency would be a limited one and not like worthless fiat which is potentially unlimited.
The vision of owning bitcoin representing network time is very interesting. I think we could establish an equivalence with a new way of thinking, like: if you own 1 Bitcoin today (2021) you own x network time which is equivalent to x working hours of someone who earns the median salary in x country (normally for international statistics the USA is used as a reference, like to calculate the number of millionaires in the world, where the dollar is used as a reference, but it could be applied to any country).
Alec Torelli: The Future of Money: Ep.1 - What is Money?
Which is somehow related to this. He was commenting that money is closely related to time, because it takes us x hours of work to earn x money. And at the end of the video he pointed out that the best form of money would be the one that best represents time: our time is limited, so the best currency would be a limited one and not like worthless fiat which is potentially unlimited.
The vision of owning bitcoin representing network time is very interesting. I think we could establish an equivalence with a new way of thinking, like: if you own 1 Bitcoin today (2021) you own x network time which is equivalent to x working hours of someone who earns the median salary in x country (normally for international statistics the USA is used as a reference, like to calculate the number of millionaires in the world, where the dollar is used as a reference, but it could be applied to any country).
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