Topic: Halving Bitcoin Reward Unlikely to Cause Price Surge - page 4. (Read 3466 times)

franky1,

I see what you're trying to demonstrate but how does that "lull" correlate with the holiday season?  Could it just be the halving alone that caused the "lull?"  I mean, if there were a correlation with the holiday season, then wouldn't some of that be reflected in the other years as well?  The only variable that changed in 2012 was the halving....December didn't change, right?

Charge more for what? If you mean "anything that I sell," the answer is "because no one will buy my stuff if I charge more."

As odolvlobo mentioned in the post above, X in your "25 + X"? That X is nontrivial. That X is roughly 15.5 *million* BTC .
The sum total of BTC issued to date.
If analogies help, think of BTC_supply as a decent sized lake, and BTC_mined as a guy peeing a little into that lake every ten minutes -- that's roughly proportional.

If I understand you correctly, you're saying that the demand is ~constant, in which case I disagree. While it is reasonable to guesstimate demand for food/oil/steel etc., this doesn't work for speculative assets like BTC.

If the food supply is reduced, food prices will likely go up -- to live, we got to eat.
If Beanie Baby supply is reduced,* OTOH, some of us may simply choose not to buy Beanies.

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*With Teh Halvening though, we're not reducing the world supply of Beanies, we're only slowing the production line to the point where it adds only 12.5 new Beanies to the market.

a lull period.. is a dead, slow, boring, stagnant period..
so we both agree
"If anything, the halving appears to have prevented a change in price" [during a normally active month]

and that was my whole point when talking about explaining the lull, because someone else was debating that the price did not shoot up as soon as november 29th(100confirms after halving).. so i was explaining the lull (slow, no movement)

lol read your post again.. then read mine.. because of the reward halving everyone sorted out their finances in november... thus not much happened in december.. causing a lull... now look at your numbers.. out of all the years which one had the least change... wait for it..

december 2012... so if you want to say that the month after the halving was not a lull (dull boring, nothing exciting).. then why is it that it you did not see a 18-50% price variance.. why was it only 6%

if you can explain away why 6% is not a lull/stagnant/boring/dull amount compared to other decembers of 18-56%.. then you sir deserve an economics award.

so with that said are you still saying that the december 2012 was not a december lull..?

Two things you have overlooked:

1. X grows every 10 minutes. What that mean if the buy side is constant?

2. Whether 12.5 or 25, it's very small compared to X.

The question is why don't YOU charge more now?   If I offer to buy at a marginally higher than market value from you,  You can say yes or no.   If the sell side of the market is 25+x btc per ten minutes,  after it will be 12.5+x btc per ten minutes.  The buy side being nonbtc assets and is more or less constant.  So you know I will haveless options to buy from.  I would say you can feel more confident to ask more.

sdp

again none said that the increase must be on the same date of the halving, this is your assumption, which is wrong btw, the increase was there, around the halving, from 4 to 12, 3x increase

How does a miner go about charging more? If they could charge more, why wouldn't they charge more now? Because charitable & pro bono?

It all comes down to how much it costs the miners to operate right now. If they need to start charging more to cover their costs, they'll start charging more. If the price is allowing for them to make pure profit right now, they might not change their selling cost at all.

franky1, your explanations are pure fantasy and speculation. You have no evidence to back up your claims. You say that the reason that there was no immediate rise at the first halving is due to people focused on Christmas. LOL. Good luck supporting that claim.

Here is evidence against your claim of the existence of a "december lull".

12/2010 - Price falls from $0.25 to $0.20, then rises to $0.30: +50% (preceded by -20%)
12/2011 - Price rises from $3.20 to $5.00: +56%
12/2012 - Price rises from $12.40 to $13.20: +6%  (post-halving) <---
12/2013 - Price drops from $1150 to $750: -35%
12/2014 - Price drops from $380 to $310: -18%
12/2015 - Price rises from $360 to $470, then falls to $430: +31% (followed by -9% )

There is no "december lull". If anything, the halving appears to have prevented a change in price instead of causing one.

The price rise is guaranteed... maybe. A price surge, up to the levels of doubling the price is unlikely to happen. Though the halving will affect day-to-day mining, let us remember that even halving the intake every day would not double the price instantly. That's not necessarily how coins are circulated. They aren't circulated directly from the blocks mined directly the day of.

Well, maybe it is. Past Halving caused the price increase, but because of panic future Halving the price of Bitcoin is growing right now. I think it all depends on the interest of people in Bitcoins.

$800k(1600, 1800 actually x 450) less dumping each day is not to underestimate either, it mean less pressure on the market, every 30 days $24M in bitcoin will not be dumped to pay electricity and new equipment for mining...

It is not a huge difference. Before the halving, the number of bitcoins increases by 0.024% each day. After the halving, the number of bitcoins will increase by 0.012% per day. A difference of 0.012% cannot be considered huge.

People that believe that the supply will decrease as a result of the halving are confusing supply with production. Supply and demand is a thing. Production and demand is not.

So it means price will increase more as less  Coins can be mined

You like good pictures, kid?  See the little red box at the bottom left?



yeah, that's where your Halvening pitcha below fits, that's the scale. Weird when you zoom out, huh?



Hope (against hope) I've helped you put things into perspective

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To reasonable people: Bitcoin is a purely speculative commodity. It's not like oil, which is consumed at a roughly predictable rate, so that cutting supply sends prices skyrocketing.

Bitcoin is different. Bitcoin demand is like demand for potato in a game of hot potato, or for seats in a musical chairs game, or for an ace in a game of Black Jack: People don't need to buy btc like they do oil and food -- they can simply *not buy* BTC & walk away when the game stops being fun. And move on to Ether, or BBQ coin, or whatever looks fun at the moment

^ i think you need to go sober up.. come back to this debate after a good 12 hours rest and relaxation. and stay away from the alcohol or drugs.

then tomorrow try again using rational thought.

have a nice peaceful day

^^TL;DR: ♫ Here is my handle/here is my spout ♫

I can't possibly convince you, that's the very essence of idee fixe: everything else must be reconciled with it, and everything appears to you as proof of your correctness re. you being a short & stout teapot.

If reality fails to comply, it won't be due to your *not* being a teapot, but the willful blindness/ignorance of others, and possibly nefarious forces (see: banksters & their lapdogs, the statist jackboots) brainwashing the sheeple into not accepting your teapotty essence.

it is obvious..

when you solve a block. you cannot spend it instantly.. firstly there is the 100 confirmation period for coins that are freshly minted. so thats 1 day (november 29th).
then people dont withdraw their costs by the minute. most farms pay salaries/bills monthly.. not the hour. so ofcourse you are not going to see a sudden rise the very minute the reward halved in 2012.(though there was a small rise)

but there are alot of correlations and relationships..

unlike your hitler analogy where one event has no connection to the other (i know thats the subtle point you were making)

but if you think about the fact that the funds were not spendable until nearly december.. we didnt see a price drop due to a sudden scare of needing to grab fiat .. so the price did not tank on the first says of december..

what did happen was when their bills were due the following month(after christmas). they realised they needed to push the market value up.. and so thats what happened.

here ill show u a chart and colour it in


blue block: december lull.. people concentrating more on christmas and new year. with funds they already cashed out in november
green block: bills have arrived and its time to pay them.. now they start to act

once you see that there are many factors to think about. such as salaries paid early in november to cover the christmas newyear period so people dont need to worry about loss of earnings/bonus over christmas..

knowing that bills wont start coming in until after christmas,

you will start to see the correlation. of why there was a Lull (stangnant delay) in december.

but hey, lets hear another analogy of yours that has no correlation and no background information that makes common sense..

It's difficult for me to relate to your mindset, so it's hard for me to offer you analogies you'd find compelling.

You seem to think that correlation is causation, and that "if A happened after B (price went up sometime after the halvening), A is causally linked to B (the price went up because of the halvening).

This is not the case, just like it is not the case that Mashka Kobilova started the Great Patriotic War by getting drunk.

Even though she did get drunk, as you can see above. And right before the war started .
Yeah, blind drunk on samagon, and BLAMO! War starts the next day.
Teh Halvening, tho, the causal link is nowhere as obvious. Can't even be seen on the price chart without someone drawing a line


So yeah, my Mashka Kobilova analogy works just fine for many, though not for everyone.
Not for my cat, who feels he's transcended mundane logic, and not for you, with your nutty idee fixe that you're "a little teapot/short and stout"  BTC price is guaranteed to go up after Teh Halvening

Well... im pretty sure of one thing. Bitcoin wont stay the same.
Or it will double the price, or it will die...

The scenario, in my opinion, will be like that:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_NgFIj9dBkQ

Im not promoting this, i just have the same opinion as said in there.