Topic: Halving is Going to Cause a General Effect on all in the Ecosystem (Read 467 times)

As the percentage of bitcoin mined gets closer to 100% and the miners get less bitcoin due to the halving, then the halving will begin to lose its influence on the market, and we may get to a point in which the halving does not produce bull runs anymore and bitcoin begins to move in a more stable way, still I do not think we are at that point yet and we are bound to see another bull run, even if I think it is going to take some time to materialize.

After each dipping there is always a pumping mechanism through which bitcoin elevates. As some months are remaining so we don't know that will there be dip or pump but we are sure that next year will make all of us happy.

Those who have collected bitcoin and also those who are still collecting will be thankful for their achievements due to their accurate choice so if someone have not choose bitcoin yet should must buy it before it gets too late.

People often don't take benefit from the opportunities and when the time passes then they saying crying that they were not familiar that the opportunity was such a great.
Always try to search about new technologies that can make you rich because in such condition spending your freely is not possible therefore select bitcoin if you want to take advantage of coming great opportunity.

For sometime I have been thinking about halving and whether the mining market is ready for it or not, because after all the direct and immediate effect of halving is reflected on miners, they are the ones getting hit with the first shockwave.

Saying the price will pump because of less supply is wrong, millions of bitcoins are in daily circulation, at least 50 times of what miners could offer to the market is being offered already by traders, so no shortage of supply, the price will pump after a while because this is said from the beginning whenever there was conversations about halving, so the psychological  auto response to this situation is believing that bitcoins now worth more, therefore you'd willingly pay more for it, the other reason for the pump is caused by another mentality which is FOMO before the PUMP.

What happened before is a sort of learning, especially for those who experienced that time like me.
As more people believe in the huge impact that the halving, they also think that it gives them a reason to stay in crypto and take the benefits it gives to us like a chance of earning more. Because what we think after halving is Bullrun and this is the time when holders got their reward from being patient. If we take the chance to accumulate more on the bearish moment of the market, we also have the chance to earn more when halving is done.

I would say this is just a reminder for every one of us and new thing for the newbies. It’s most awaited event by bitcoin hodler since there is high chance it will pump Bitcoin economy to next level. The previous mapping suggests we get a big dip first, then we end up in high pumping zone once FOMO is out. This is big event for the millionaires, institutional investors, and most of the big companies to get lot of Bitcoins in their bags. They know very well when rest of the word is fearing out their sells, it’s time to buy and hodl.

Hope so most of the forum members have learned the lesson in previous 1 or 2 halving events if they had been around for that much time and hodl by not freaking out. Good times coming boys, hope so we get good bag of bitcoin soon.

I must specially thank you for this comprehensive reply.

The halving has a minor effect on miners who actually want more bitcoin and a major effect on miners who sell it for fiat.

When the supply of newly mined bitcoin is cut in half from 6.25 bitcoin to 3.125 bitcoin, obviously all bitcoin miners will receive fewer sats for each block that they mine. This will obviously make it more difficult for some miners to mine at a profit so they will have to shut down because they will be spending more money on electricity than they receive from the block reward. Imagine a miner spending $10 worth of electricity to mine $11 worth of bitcoin before the halving but spending $10 to mine $5.50 worth of bitcoin after the halving. They would simply get more bitcoin if they just bought it rather than mining it.

Any rational miner who actually wants more bitcoin would simply shut down their miner and spend the $10 to just buy $10 worth of bitcoin instead of buying $10 worth of electricity to mine $5.50 worth of bitcoin. This does 2 things.
1. It puts downward pressure on the hashrate when they shut down their mining hardware- https://www.whatisbitcoin.com/learn/what-is-the-hashrate
2. It puts upward pressure on the price of bitcoin when they buy- https://www.whatisbitcoin.com/economics/the-price-of-bitcoin

If enough miners shut down and divert their resources to buying bitcoin instead of buying electricity to mine bitcoin, then the difficulty of mining will adjust downward and the price will adjust upward until it becomes profitable enough for some of them to mine again.

Miners who only mine bitcoin to sell for fiat will be hurt much more because they don't actually want the bitcoin. They only want more fiat. What they are actually doing is just speculating on the price of bitcoin but they are using bitcoin mining to do so. They spend fiat to buy mining hardware and then they spend fiat to buy electricity to mine bitcoin and then they sell their bitcoin to hopefully get more fiat revenue than they initially invested. The halving will likely put a lot of hurt on these miners because they are ultimately speculating on the price of bitcoin with some extra steps.

this is a solid question.

I would argue the 2012 December ½ ing was too early in BTC to use as an example of what to look for.

This leaves the 2016 July  and 2020 May ½ ing dates.

Covid fucked up all of 2020 so I would toss out the 2020 info.


we would then be left with only 2016 July ½ ing patterns as valid

and are trying to match it up with 2024 ½ ing


https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/BTC-USD

2015 and 2016 monthly closings 19 months time

January >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  $226.97
February >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>   $260.20
March >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  $247.27
April >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  $232.07
May >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  $222.92
June >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  $258.62
July >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> $281.60
August >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> $228.12
September >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> $237.54


October >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> $325.43
November >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  $362.48. we kind of match this time right now
December >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  $343.33


January >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> $373.05
February >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> $435.12
March >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> $417.96
April >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> $451.87
May >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> $536.92
June >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> $676.29
July the ½ ing for 2016 >>>>>>>> $606.27 July close about 20 days after closing










2022-2024 19 months time






October >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> $20,485
November >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  $16,967
December
January
February >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
March >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> $28,411
April >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  $28,091
May >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> $26,819

June >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  $30,590
July >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>    $29,675. this time matches up with bold above
August >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  $25,800

Sept
October
November
December
January
February
March
April the ½ ing for 2024.  So I double 25,800 to 51600 and double 30,590 to 61800


my pre  ½ range in early April 2024  is 51.600 to 61,800

Hashrate increases a lot, difficulty increases consequently and their increases are sustainable. Bitcoin price grows too to support miner revenues from mining. If miners don't have profit from mining after past halvings, they will shut down their ASICs and hashrate will drop.

It is not what actually happened after past halvings with miners. They continued mining because they still got good profit from mining.

Halvings are chances for whales to manipulate market so they will create lot of fud and hype to force the market to dive or boost it to rise. Generally I see from past halvings, if you can hold, you will get profit.

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Newbies shouldn't trade with leverages and lost bitcoins by liquidations. I learned it and want newbies to understand it if they think they can get rich from trading.

If you want to know the effects of halving on miners, all you have to do is to look at the past 14 years and the past 3 halvings. In other words people who claim it will have a "backlash" because miners make less money have not checked the history where hashrate keeps on growing after the halving even though the income is 50% less in terms of bitcoin.

As for the price, again the history suggests that there will be a hype during the months leading to halving which could cause a rise which will disappear after the halving and price can come down a little. But in long run the decreased rate of supply creation will reduce the sell pressure and price will go up.

Someone I knee is worried about the future of Bitcoin mining, that if the value of Bitcoin when the halving is halved into 1.5BTC per block isn't good enough it can kill Bitcoin, I told him I disagree, because if the value of Bitcoin drops even more, let's say back to 10k in 8 years it will still looks attractive to holders, also new Asic miners will be created, which will wager things between rewards and electricity consumption, I am not worried about this a bit, Bitcoin always finds it's way out of the impossible, it's going to be fun watching everything unfold in a few years later, I am excited.

If you are already warning others that they need to learn something, how about starting from yourself? The rules of good behavior say that you should not use capital letters (and you still use them in title), and also that when you open a topic, you should participate in it.

I think the right time to invest in bitcoin is a few months before the halving. Bitcoin halving will occur in 2024.

Why is it called halving? Now when people mine 1 block of Bitcoin the reward is 6.25 BTC, after the halving it becomes 3.125 BTC. Before the first halving, 1 block was 50 BTC, then 25 then 12 BTC and so on.
Now we are in our 4th halving.

So the right time to buy BTC is when the price rises and then falls sharply, we immediately buy it. My suggestion is to buy it 6 months before the halving and sell it 1 or 1.5 years after the halving.

Halving strategy is a mess, non thought through IMHO.
In the end what will be the role miners will play? They retire?

Quite frankly true, about the general effect. It has only to do with all ecosystems that use BTC or have it in investment form.
It is also an inevitable phenomenon in the actualization of its vision of 21million BTC . 
I wouldn't stress about it much if I were you OP.
Just make your plans to either HODL, trade till then and pause, stay away from BTC till after the halving, trade and HoDL altcoins.

The halving is going to happen, the aim is at the bull run expected to happen after the halving. It is an opportunity to make gains if you are equipped with the right knowledge of trading and BTC investments of course.

Yeah, I thought about that before making my post, if you check normally plagiarism report has a dedicated thread for it but since we’re dealing with dates of an event (like I stated in my previous post ) it’s very easy to see similar post like that online this why I just gave him a link to include in his post so as to avoid any drama… Assuming his post was reported as plagiarised or paraphrased post we would have been discussing a different issue now.

And if you check his response to my post he didn’t sound like someone who made a post that turned out to be similar to one that already existed.

I don't think you can categorically say the OP's post you quoted was plagiarized. What I read from it is someone who read something somewhere for a long time and internalized it to reproduce later.

It's their fault and they should bear the brunt. They got themselves where they're because of greed. According to Warren Buffett, I repeat in paraphrase, we should buy when others are scared of buying and sell off once we start seeing people rush into the market. Those investors you so referred to bought when people rushed in. They waited too long to buy in. It's the same way we've been chorusing that now is the right time to buy in because of the incoming Bitcoin halving next year. Sadly, many people are reluctant to do that now. Wait till 2024, you will see them chase the market. But of course, they will buy high then and discover that the market has dumped on them.

I think that it would affect the price of BTC, since mining process becomes longer and more difficult. Moreover, the quality of mining hardware improves after or immediately before halving, so that mining process changes. So, in general, every halving is the chance to improve technical abilities of the network. Price of BTC usually goes up for a bit.

Miners have the option to switch to mining other coins and tokens if this process is not beneficial for mining Bitcoin. Why are people so confident that the price will go up after the halving? For some reason, I don't have that feeling at all. It seems to me that all players will again be deceived and heated for money. Big whales need to make money from smaller whales, right?
To be convinced of this, it is enough to look at the experience of previous years. Something not very many positive moments on the chart.
Therefore, I would not build any illusions about the price increase. It only misleads and gives false hope.

Looking at the past halvenings, there's no immediate hashrate drop due to miners switching off after becoming unprofitable because of the halvening. This is probably because a lot of miners have high enough profit margins that even after halvening they are making profits. Plus the price growth will help to compensate for halvening.

The problems might start arise when the price will become more stable and there will be no more post-halvening bull runs. If mining will become more saturated and profit margins will become lower, then halvenings could have big effects, although at that point transaction fees might start playing bigger role.