Happy halving day - page 19. | Bitcointalksearch.org

marcus_of_augustus

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Eadem mutata resurgo

Quote from: kwoody on November 27, 2012, 03:17:23 PM

Less than 24 hours till halving...value better go up, i'm feeling particularly lazy this week and don't want to dismantle rigs quite yet..

I'm betting it will actually drop, quite markedly too. Reasoning being a "buy the rumour, sell the news" effect. With so much speculative money in bitcoin a good portion has come in to profit from the "halving" phenomena. This money will take profits after the halving (I think they are already doing this for the last few days) .... I'm expecting to drop more and probably it will be a while before the long term effect of the decreased inflation works its way through to the supply/demand equation.

kwoody

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Technology and Women. Amazing.

Less than 24 hours till halving...value better go up, i'm feeling particularly lazy this week and don't want to dismantle rigs quite yet..

kano

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Quote from: kano on November 18, 2012, 04:05:21 PM

Quote from: kano on November 08, 2012, 12:30:10 AM

Yeah try UTC or write GMT+/-N

As for when ... 3 weeks ...

This diff is currently only running 1.9% fast. (with very close to 4.5days to go at 1.9%)

Then 2 weeks with anywhere from -2% to 10% adjustment on that
(well that's what I guess - and in that range my guess is 4%) or between 342.7 hrs and 302.4 hrs or 4% = 322.6 hrs

Then another 337 blocks after that ... I'll go the same range -2% to 10% (and guess 4%) so between 57.3 and 56.6 hrs or 4% = 53.9 hrs

So on those figures - with it now 8-Nov 05:15 UTC (oh another block just came in I'll ignore it Tongue

)

I get my guess of: between 29 Nov 9:15 UTC (-2%) and 27 Nov 16:15 UTC (10%)
Or my 4% guess = 28 Nov 9:45 UTC (4%)

With about 10 days to go

Amusing that the last diff did actually finish on 1.9%

So based on it now being 18-Nov 21:00 UTC (though it's tomorrow here

)

Current Difficulty of the 870 blocks so far in this last difficulty change before halving is -1.4% ... still JUST inside my rather large -2% to 10% range
(Yeah looks like it won't be anywhere near 10% but I'll leave that as the top value anyway)

However, I'll drop my 4% guess now down to 2% for the remainder of this difficulty + the 337 blocks until halving.

So again with the range -2% to 10% and 1146 blocks until the last diff change:
Between 194.8 and 171.9 hours (or 2% = 187.2 hrs)

Then another 337 blocks after that ... -2% to 10% (and now guess 2%):
so between 57.3 and 50.6 hrs (or 2% = 55.0 hrs)

So again based on it being 18-Nov 21:00 UTC and block 208517
So between 29-Nov 09:06 UTC (-2%) and 28-Nov 03:30 UTC (10%)
Or my new 2% guess 28-Nov 23:12 UTC

Edit: hmm - that 337 range is wrong, 10% is 50.6 (I typed 56.6) - never noticed the mistake before either - corrected now.
That meant the 10% is 28-Nov 03:30 UTC (not 28-Nov 09:30 UTC)

Time to do one last guess?

With 127 blocks to go until the last diff change - difficulkty is showing 1.16% - not majorly different to my 2% guess - but still a bit lower.

Now lets say it is 25-Nov 17:45 now

At 1.2% that will put the last difficulty change (before halving) at 20.9 hours from now or roughly 20hrs 55 minutes.

Or 26-Nov 14:40 for the next diff change

Then add another 337 blocks at between -2% and 10% (or using the current diff value of 1.2%)

That gives between 50.6 and 57.3 hours after that - or between 28-Nov 17:16 and 28-Nov 23:58

But using the 1.2% number we get: 28-Nov 22:10

Hmm all my numbers are on the 28th now (UTC)

justusranvier

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This is a chart of my naive, semi-random sampling of blockchain info:

justusranvier

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Quote from: marcus_of_augustus on November 21, 2012, 11:43:26 PM

umm, simple approx. says about 6 days, 16.6 hours from nowish ... so 2100 28.11.12 UTC ... roughly speaking?

That's a reflection of how much noise is in the data, that it changed that much between when I posted and when you posted.

marcus_of_augustus

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Eadem mutata resurgo

Quote from: justusranvier on November 21, 2012, 11:31:18 PM

I've just started keeping track so I don't have many data points yet but I have a simple approximation based on current block and time between blocks as reported on blockchain.info.

So far my estimate falls in a six hour window on the 28th between 14:30 and 20:30 UTC.

umm, simple approx. says about 6 days, 16.6 hours from nowish ... so 2100 28.11.12 UTC ... roughly speaking?

justusranvier

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I've just started keeping track so I don't have many data points yet but I have a simple approximation based on current block and time between blocks as reported on blockchain.info.

So far my estimate falls in a six hour window on the 28th between 14:30 and 20:30 UTC.

marcus_of_augustus

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Eadem mutata resurgo

So anyone know why bitcoinwatch and bitcoincharts are saying next difficulty change at 209,664 blocks ... I thought the halving and next difficulty change co-incided, i.e. 210,000?

http://www.bitcoinwatch.com/

http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/

EDIT: evidently they don't coincide ... my mistake, just had always assumed they would ... the next difficulty change will be the 104th and the block reward halving will occur 336 blocks after that change and 1680 blocks before the 105th difficulty change ... as you were, no need to panic. Wink

goldlyre

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Can I?

kano

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Quote from: kano on November 08, 2012, 12:30:10 AM

Yeah try UTC or write GMT+/-N

As for when ... 3 weeks ...

This diff is currently only running 1.9% fast. (with very close to 4.5days to go at 1.9%)

Then 2 weeks with anywhere from -2% to 10% adjustment on that
(well that's what I guess - and in that range my guess is 4%) or between 342.7 hrs and 302.4 hrs or 4% = 322.6 hrs

Then another 337 blocks after that ... I'll go the same range -2% to 10% (and guess 4%) so between 57.3 and 56.6 hrs or 4% = 53.9 hrs

So on those figures - with it now 8-Nov 05:15 UTC (oh another block just came in I'll ignore it Tongue

)

I get my guess of: between 29 Nov 9:15 UTC (-2%) and 27 Nov 16:15 UTC (10%)
Or my 4% guess = 28 Nov 9:45 UTC (4%)

With about 10 days to go

Amusing that the last diff did actually finish on 1.9%

So based on it now being 18-Nov 21:00 UTC (though it's tomorrow here

)

Current Difficulty of the 870 blocks so far in this last difficulty change before halving is -1.4% ... still JUST inside my rather large -2% to 10% range
(Yeah looks like it won't be anywhere near 10% but I'll leave that as the top value anyway)

However, I'll drop my 4% guess now down to 2% for the remainder of this difficulty + the 337 blocks until halving.

So again with the range -2% to 10% and 1146 blocks until the last diff change:
Between 194.8 and 171.9 hours (or 2% = 187.2 hrs)

Then another 337 blocks after that ... -2% to 10% (and now guess 2%):
so between 57.3 and 50.6 hrs (or 2% = 55.0 hrs)

So again based on it being 18-Nov 21:00 UTC and block 208517
So between 29-Nov 09:06 UTC (-2%) and 28-Nov 03:30 UTC (10%)
Or my new 2% guess 28-Nov 23:12 UTC

Edit: hmm - that 337 range is wrong, 10% is 50.6 (I typed 56.6) - never noticed the mistake before either - corrected now.
That meant the 10% is 28-Nov 03:30 UTC (not 28-Nov 09:30 UTC)

Ente

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Quote from: ildubbioso on November 10, 2012, 07:56:47 AM

the countdown will be interesting

ten blocks . . . . . . . . .
nine blocks . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
one block . . . .

Happy Halving Day!!

..with totally random waiting times in between!
Will you be able to have a beer in between each block? How will you divide the "10 minutes", drink it all as fast as possible, or be slow and hope you have those 10 mins? I see some fun block-games coming! :-)

Ente

ildubbioso

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the countdown will be interesting

ten blocks . . . . . . . . .
nine blocks . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . .
one block . . . .

Happy Halving Day!!

BitCoiner2012

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Will definitely try to celebrate this locally, like the idea!

Frequency

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COINDER

Quote from: strideynet on November 10, 2012, 03:08:30 AM

Make sure it's near a cliff. If value drops we all jump

if value drops i put al my money into buying knowing almost for sure it will go up again soon...hahaa cheerzz Cheesy

strideynet

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Make sure it's near a cliff. If value drops we all jump

odolvlobo

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Quote from: Herodes on November 09, 2012, 10:11:17 AM

Sorry about my ignorance, but how exactly do we determine when it happens ?

I take it is on a set block number ? So if it's block n that's the deal, then we sit with the champagne glasses at n-1 and just wait for n, and once n comes we can all say cheers and start jumping, is that right ?

Yes. Block 210,000 is the first block of the halved reward. The time it will be produced looks like 11/28, or possibly 11/27. Since the time to produce a block is random (but is usually close to 10 minutes), a more exact time cannot be predicted at this point.

crazy_rabbit

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RUM AND CARROTS: A PIRATE LIFE FOR ME

Quote from: helloworld on November 08, 2012, 09:34:13 PM

Quote from: kano on November 08, 2012, 12:30:10 AM

Yeah try UTC or write GMT+/-N

As for when ... 3 weeks ...

2 weeks, 5 days, 23 hours, 30 minutes

already?!?! So soon!

Herodes

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Sorry about my ignorance, but how exactly do we determine when it happens ?

I take it is on a set block number ? So if it's block n that's the deal, then we sit with the champagne glasses at n-1 and just wait for n, and once n comes we can all say cheers and start jumping, is that right ?

Frequency

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COINDER