Topic: Has anyone heard of the 10$ Million Buy over 6 months? (Read 1739 times)

Havent heard of it, but if true, $10 million would easily push us up. A lot. Even when spread over 6 mths.

Yeah this pretty much sums it up.

Yeah, poor millionaire ! 

too bad for him 

I know this early adopter who used to mine like crazy and hoarded all the bitcoins.  He has bitcoins in the high 5 figures.
He recently told me he didn't believe in bitcoin anymore with all the regulations and he is going to dump them in the market over the next few months.
Just warning you people so you can get out early before he dumps.


...

 

I hope a bunch of hedge funds decide to buy. 

I think rumors have gone around like this before.  I don't personally know anyone that could verify it.  It could happen though.

My reasoning applies to 500 BTC / day as well. Yes 4k trades are not infrequent occurrences. A 4K buy with no sell of the 4k at a later point (because it's a trader who does this he will take profit at some point and sell) however, is a seldom ocurrence. How can I prove this? Well, right off the hat I can't. I tried by arguing that 500 BTC/day is 14% of mining output, but this doesnt seem to bear fruit.

If they want to buy 10 million worth of BTC, they'll probably do it off-exchange buying from people who wont re-buy next hour, therefore not moving price much.

EDIT: here's an attempt:

buying 500 BTC would currently move price about 2 bucks. Orderbook is pretty much flat so close to current price, so let's say buying 5000 BTC moves price from 94$ to 99$. That's 0.5$ per 500 BTC. Ok so far?

Since it's "pure buying" we're talking about, that price move will stick, so we can add it up and get an additional 15$ increase per month without considering any network effect.

Still think it's "actually nothing"?

I think it has the potential to fuel the next bubble. See how close we are to desaster, bears?

molecular quite valid points but only under few conditions. This is approx. 500 BTC per day, actually nothing. So if market is really non volatile, this might be seen as someone is buying, otherwise in volatile market 500 BTC is nothing. In this case, they should have a strategy and show that someone is buying - sunday morning 4k buys for example (but that would also increase their price what they do not want).

The hypothesis is that Kartoff is underestimating the effect of 10 million USD worth of "real buying" (w/o selling back) would have on the market.

The assumption is that he's probably looking at a chart and seeing daily volume on mtGox regularly exceeding 10 million USD, so he figures 1E7 USD over 6 months is a drop in the bucket.

My reasoning now is that 10 million is not a drop in the bucket, because: the volume on mtGox is people and bots buying and selling the same coins back and forth frequently trying to squeeze some profit. It is also (to a lesser extent) buyers of merchandise acquiring bitcoins to buy stuff online and merchants (or bitpay) swapping them back in equal amount  to USD after transfer. What trade volume on mtGox does currently not represent to any substantial degree is Joe Schmoe or whoever actually acquiring bitcoins as a store of wealth. The uncertainty about price is way too high currently for new people to come in. I may be wrong, but my reasoning is that a month worth of mining output (100,000 BTC) being bought over the course of 6 months would substantially alter the market from whatever it is now to a bull market, dragging along everyone. That's 17% of the mining output being bought right off the market each day (or whatever the buying frequency would be). That's considerable, I would say, and through network effect (no better advertisement than an ever-rising price) would make a huge difference.

I may be wrong, but that's the reasoning for not simply dismissing 10 million USD as "not a factor".

This is a very convincing story. Please tell us more.

Could you elaborate on this molecular? I don't understand your reasoning.

exactly, like here in late 2011:



those was some successful buying not long after the Prague conference. Probably Max Keiser and others ;-)

A good entry point would be when the bubble has completely deflated and Bitcoins cost between $15-20 which should be at some point in the next few months.

However if someone buys too many too quickly another bubble will form and we get to repeat this whole thing again.

I don't agree. 10 million, even dispersed over 6 months would have an immense impact (if held, of course). In fact I think this could ignite and then persistently fuel a rocket for the whole 6 month period.

Don't mix up trading volume with pure buying volume.

heyhey now. Why so pissed off? You uttered some speculative nonsense and Wagner was nice enough to play along. You should thank him.

You know what?

You piss off, I'm sick of people making up "rumors", proof or get the fuck out.

He he 10 mil. I think that 10 milion are not a factor in this market anymore... Maybe 100 or more can catch attention but...

This is old news....welcome to two weeks ago.

Nice! But, it will not work. This is 100% real. If you have heard about it, please mention something here. If not, piss off!
BTW, if it's not real, then something major happened. The person who mentioned this to me, had no idea I knew about bitcoin.
I did not want to mention how Much I knew.

OK, I'll play along. I also heard from someone that they were going to short the heck out of it first so they can buy dirt cheap. That's all I know. Did anyone else hear about that? If so, the price might decline a lot I suppose.