Topic: Has technical analysis been thoroughly debunked in the bitcoin community yet? - page 4. (Read 5055 times)
July 05, 2014, 11:11:01 PM
Just look for high volume candles and draw lines.
July 05, 2014, 10:04:31 PM
Has technical analysis been thoroughly debunked in the bitcoin community yet?
Or are there a lot of people still following technical indicators and such.
Of the people who still choose to follow technical analysis, what's popular in bitcoin? What are people using?
Or are there a lot of people still following technical indicators and such.
Of the people who still choose to follow technical analysis, what's popular in bitcoin? What are people using?
Has technical analysis been thoroughly debunked in the bitcoin community yet?
Yes.
Or are there a lot of people still following technical indicators and such.
Yes.
Of the people who still choose to follow technical analysis, what's popular in bitcoin? What are people using?
The usual stuff- MACD, Elliot waves, etc.
So are people actually trading on these things thinking that they have some predictive power over the price of bitcoin? It doesn't really make any sense that these things would have any sort of predictive power over a random indicator based on dice or something.
If these things ever did have any predictive power it is essentially a self-fulfilling prophecy that they no longer do. Today, it is merely a means of holding oneself out to have their eyeballs robbed out of their head. In essence, it is like giving the playbook to the other team -- you telegraph when and how you (and a large group of people) will trade. From there, they can backsolve or recreate what the likely movements are and manipulate appropriately. It seems terribly stupid to me.
July 05, 2014, 09:39:20 PM
A better question is has TA ever been shown to have any value?
Google: park irwin technical
July 05, 2014, 08:24:11 PM
There's always the self profiling prophecy aspect of it. That might have some validity.
This. TA works because there's people out there that actually believe in it. Alternatively, you can buy and hold for 1+ years, not worry about trying to time the market, and enjoy a lower tax rate (long term capital gains) when you decide you're feeling too rich and sell.
July 05, 2014, 05:04:54 PM
From what I see around, all kinds of TA are use by many people.
If what I read around is true, the most successful are those doing trading with large timeframes (so no daytrading).
If what I read around is true, the most successful are those doing trading with large timeframes (so no daytrading).
July 05, 2014, 04:27:15 PM
Thanks for you input! Very enlightening. I will stop using TA now, it clearly is the devil!
TA is stupid all the way when you just can buy and buy and buy and hold and buy and buy and hold!
Who needs TA for that!
TA is stupid all the way when you just can buy and buy and buy and hold and buy and buy and hold!
Who needs TA for that!
Oh! Finally the redeemer came to us.
This board offers as much geniuses as completely non-trolling-retards.
This board offers as much geniuses as completely non-trolling-retards.
I'm not trying to troll people. But I've seen online communities and people go through infatuations with TA and then slowly come to realise that all of this information that's being analyzed is just descriptive rather than predictive.
I'm just wondering what the status of TA is in the bitcoin community. The supply and demand of bitcoin is of course what determines the price. I'm not here to 'redeem' anyone or convince anyone. I don't mean to come off in an offensive way either, humans are naturally drawn to see patterns in data.
Sorry for my cynicism, but these debates about the value of TA are really exhausting.
I appreciate a good TA, but I refuse to see or accept it as a prediction. For me TA is analyzing possibilities and estamite their likelyhood. Based on this and in awereness that there is almost ever more than one possible scenario I develop buying/selling strategies for myself.
July 05, 2014, 04:23:35 PM
The problem is the complete lack of reliable data to test TA in a bitcoin context. It could be done. If you took say 100 TA bitcoin traders over a sufficient period and compared their results to a notional buy and hold, then there might be a basis for comparison.
But none of the TA traders on the forum seem to be particularly keen on opening their trade books for us Buy and Hold folk to look at
But none of the TA traders on the forum seem to be particularly keen on opening their trade books for us Buy and Hold folk to look at
July 05, 2014, 04:07:55 PM
Or are there a lot of people still following technical indicators and such.
Of the people who still choose to follow technical analysis, what's popular in bitcoin? What are people using?
Of the people who still choose to follow technical analysis, what's popular in bitcoin? What are people using?
Im still following some technical analysis, for day trade i think is still good you can predict some trend when it just jumped . for example price: 650 - 630 - 620 -500 -640 - 630.. it has been like a roller coaster for days.
I can't comment on the validity of your specific idea but I think that's a little different than what I consider standard 'TA'. I would say you're more trying to trade off of market psychology and specific anchor prices.
Some people try to claim that the popular TA indicators are representative of underlying market psychology but without being able to explain the logic behind them, I don't consider them on the same level.
What you're trying to do falls closer to behavioral economics. Since you're basing your idea on predicting people's(the market) reactions to different price points.
July 05, 2014, 03:31:04 PM
Or are there a lot of people still following technical indicators and such.
Of the people who still choose to follow technical analysis, what's popular in bitcoin? What are people using?
Of the people who still choose to follow technical analysis, what's popular in bitcoin? What are people using?
Im still following some technical analysis, for day trade i think is still good you can predict some trend when it just jumped . for example price: 650 - 630 - 620 -500 -640 - 630.. it has been like a roller coaster for days.
July 05, 2014, 03:04:47 PM
A better question is has TA ever been shown to have any value?
There's always the self profiling prophecy aspect of it. That might have some validity.
July 05, 2014, 02:15:18 PM
I'm just wondering what the status of TA is in the bitcoin community.
The Bitcoin community is far from any consensus on TA or much else for that matter.
In fact there seems to be a major dichotomy between holders and traders.
Traders often look upon holders as Koolade-drinking Bitcoin cultists, libertarian "true believers" who see it as disruptive technology.
Holders on the other hand often view daytraders as technology-impaired get-rich-quick wannabes who treat bitcoins as if they were shares in corporations, drinking the TA Koolade and failing to see the bigger picture.
This split is a great source of amusement for many of us.
July 05, 2014, 01:34:22 PM
Thanks for you input! Very enlightening. I will stop using TA now, it clearly is the devil!
TA is stupid all the way when you just can buy and buy and buy and hold and buy and buy and hold!
Who needs TA for that!
TA is stupid all the way when you just can buy and buy and buy and hold and buy and buy and hold!
Who needs TA for that!
Oh! Finally the redeemer came to us.
This board offers as much geniuses as completely non-trolling-retards.
This board offers as much geniuses as completely non-trolling-retards.
I'm not trying to troll people. But I've seen online communities and people go through infatuations with TA and then slowly come to realise that all of this information that's being analyzed is just descriptive rather than predictive.
I'm just wondering what the status of TA is in the bitcoin community. The supply and demand of bitcoin is of course what determines the price. I'm not here to 'redeem' anyone or convince anyone. I don't mean to come off in an offensive way either, humans are naturally drawn to see patterns in data.
July 05, 2014, 01:15:00 PM
A better question is has TA ever been shown to have any value?
July 05, 2014, 01:08:32 PM
Oh! Finally the redeemer came to us.
This board offers as much geniuses as completely non-trolling-retards.
This board offers as much geniuses as completely non-trolling-retards.
July 05, 2014, 01:07:18 PM
I'm not much of TA user. With most of my investments, in fact, I never even look at it.
In fact, with bitcoin, I don't trade on it at all. However, one could probably make a case that with bitcoin, the analysis of underlying fundamentals is quite a bit more murky than with, say, a stock with earnings.
TA can surely never predict underlying fundamentals, for example, when 5 years of earnings are re-stated due to accounting shenanigans, or a merger offer. But with bitcoin, one could argue that psychology makes up a huge element of the price in the absence of other fundamentals. TA might give some kind of insight into price behaviors that result from psychological factors.
That said, I sure see plenty of TA claims on this forum that turn out to be pretty wildly wrong. YMMV.
In fact, with bitcoin, I don't trade on it at all. However, one could probably make a case that with bitcoin, the analysis of underlying fundamentals is quite a bit more murky than with, say, a stock with earnings.
TA can surely never predict underlying fundamentals, for example, when 5 years of earnings are re-stated due to accounting shenanigans, or a merger offer. But with bitcoin, one could argue that psychology makes up a huge element of the price in the absence of other fundamentals. TA might give some kind of insight into price behaviors that result from psychological factors.
That said, I sure see plenty of TA claims on this forum that turn out to be pretty wildly wrong. YMMV.
July 05, 2014, 12:37:48 PM
Thanks for you input! Very enlightening. I will stop using TA now, it clearly is the devil!
TA is stupid all the way when you just can buy and buy and buy and hold and buy and buy and hold!
Who needs TA for that!
TA is stupid all the way when you just can buy and buy and buy and hold and buy and buy and hold!
Who needs TA for that!
July 05, 2014, 12:11:34 PM
Has technical analysis been thoroughly debunked in the bitcoin community yet?
Or are there a lot of people still following technical indicators and such.
Of the people who still choose to follow technical analysis, what's popular in bitcoin? What are people using?
Or are there a lot of people still following technical indicators and such.
Of the people who still choose to follow technical analysis, what's popular in bitcoin? What are people using?
Has technical analysis been thoroughly debunked in the bitcoin community yet?
Yes.
Or are there a lot of people still following technical indicators and such.
Yes.
Of the people who still choose to follow technical analysis, what's popular in bitcoin? What are people using?
The usual stuff- MACD, Elliot waves, etc.
So are people actually trading on these things thinking that they have some predictive power over the price of bitcoin? It doesn't really make any sense that these things would have any sort of predictive power over a random indicator based on dice or something.
July 05, 2014, 11:51:48 AM
Has technical analysis been thoroughly debunked in the bitcoin community yet?
Or are there a lot of people still following technical indicators and such.
Of the people who still choose to follow technical analysis, what's popular in bitcoin? What are people using?
Or are there a lot of people still following technical indicators and such.
Of the people who still choose to follow technical analysis, what's popular in bitcoin? What are people using?
Has technical analysis been thoroughly debunked in the bitcoin community yet?
Yes.
Or are there a lot of people still following technical indicators and such.
Yes.
Of the people who still choose to follow technical analysis, what's popular in bitcoin? What are people using?
The usual stuff- MACD, Elliot waves, etc.
July 05, 2014, 11:46:39 AM
Or are there a lot of people still following technical indicators and such.
Of the people who still choose to follow technical analysis, what's popular in bitcoin? What are people using?
Of the people who still choose to follow technical analysis, what's popular in bitcoin? What are people using?
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