Well there's a speculation thread here about diff, so I'll close this one now.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/--5307087
Topic: Hash rate crash today? [2021-06-11] (Read 336 times)
Firstly, as usual, luck is a major factor in any short calculations (e.g. 100-200 blocks or less)
My last post we were at "158 blocks to go" and now at 92 to go.
The calculated diff on the incomplete range has gone from -5% to -5.66% which is actually a pretty radical change
since it's only a 66/1924 effect.
Basically, it's saying that it is quite possible that the overall hash rate has dropped quite a bit in the last few days.
BTC.com seems to have lost about 5EH (which is thus about 3.3% of the network) but there is probably more.
As mentioned before, this does look quite likely to affect the next diff change in 2 weeks also, unless the missing hardware comes back online soon.
Yes a diff drop means it's a little easier to find a block - this time probably about 6%? easier since there's fewer miners.
i.e. it's only around -6% so far, so pretty minor compared to say even the last diff change that was -15.97%
My last post we were at "158 blocks to go" and now at 92 to go.
The calculated diff on the incomplete range has gone from -5% to -5.66% which is actually a pretty radical change
since it's only a 66/1924 effect.
Basically, it's saying that it is quite possible that the overall hash rate has dropped quite a bit in the last few days.
BTC.com seems to have lost about 5EH (which is thus about 3.3% of the network) but there is probably more.
As mentioned before, this does look quite likely to affect the next diff change in 2 weeks also, unless the missing hardware comes back online soon.
Does it mean the small firms even solo miners will have advantage if the big firms shuts down for any reason? Bitcoin will be more decentralised. We may have a good panic in the market if something like this really happens but eventually things will get settled.
Please correct me if I am wrong and please do not delete my post because I am genuinely interested to know if I am making sense.
Thanks
Really nothing to do with decentralisation.Please correct me if I am wrong and please do not delete my post because I am genuinely interested to know if I am making sense.
Thanks
Yes a diff drop means it's a little easier to find a block - this time probably about 6%? easier since there's fewer miners.
i.e. it's only around -6% so far, so pretty minor compared to say even the last diff change that was -15.97%
Have to agree with you. I wonder if it is a critical psu component shortage.
Since
Bitmain
Cannan
Innosilicson
Mircrobt
all use bespoke psu's in the newer gear.
I wonder if they are failing and parts are not available for replacement.
If that is the case we could see hash rates to keep on dropping.
Firstly, as usual, luck is a major factor in any short calculations (e.g. 100-200 blocks or less)
My last post we were at "158 blocks to go" and now at 92 to go.
The calculated diff on the incomplete range has gone from -5% to -5.66% which is actually a pretty radical change
since it's only a 66/1924 effect.
Basically, it's saying that it is quite possible that the overall hash rate has dropped quite a bit in the last few days.
BTC.com seems to have lost about 5EH (which is thus about 3.3% of the network) but there is probably more.
As mentioned before, this does look quite likely to affect the next diff change in 2 weeks also, unless the missing hardware comes back online soon.
Yes a diff drop means it's a little easier to find a block - this time probably about 6%? easier since there's fewer miners.
i.e. it's only around -6% so far, so pretty minor compared to say even the last diff change that was -15.97%
My last post we were at "158 blocks to go" and now at 92 to go.
The calculated diff on the incomplete range has gone from -5% to -5.66% which is actually a pretty radical change
since it's only a 66/1924 effect.
Basically, it's saying that it is quite possible that the overall hash rate has dropped quite a bit in the last few days.
BTC.com seems to have lost about 5EH (which is thus about 3.3% of the network) but there is probably more.
As mentioned before, this does look quite likely to affect the next diff change in 2 weeks also, unless the missing hardware comes back online soon.
Does it mean the small firms even solo miners will have advantage if the big firms shuts down for any reason? Bitcoin will be more decentralised. We may have a good panic in the market if something like this really happens but eventually things will get settled.
Please correct me if I am wrong and please do not delete my post because I am genuinely interested to know if I am making sense.
Thanks
Really nothing to do with decentralisation.Please correct me if I am wrong and please do not delete my post because I am genuinely interested to know if I am making sense.
Thanks
Yes a diff drop means it's a little easier to find a block - this time probably about 6%? easier since there's fewer miners.
i.e. it's only around -6% so far, so pretty minor compared to say even the last diff change that was -15.97%
Does it mean the small firms even solo miners will have advantage if the big firms shuts down for any reason? Bitcoin will be more decentralised. We may have a good panic in the market if something like this really happens but eventually things will get settled.
Please correct me if I am wrong and please do not delete my post because I am genuinely interested to know if I am making sense.
Thanks
Please correct me if I am wrong and please do not delete my post because I am genuinely interested to know if I am making sense.
Thanks
Yeah we were 78 (edit from 82) blocks off the pace yesterday and we are now 98 off pace
we have 156 blocks to go which should be 26 hours from now.
I am guessing we will take more like 28-30 hours
and end up 115-125 blocks off pace
more gear is getting shut down.
I clocked the off pace 26 hours ago
so 78 off to 98 off in 26 hours means 136 vs 156
that is down to 87.1 % of normal for that 26 hour time slot
should be interesting to see the close out for the next jump do we drop 20 more blocks and go to 118 off pace.
price is dropping a bit 35.4k
we have 156 blocks to go which should be 26 hours from now.
I am guessing we will take more like 28-30 hours
and end up 115-125 blocks off pace
more gear is getting shut down.
I clocked the off pace 26 hours ago
so 78 off to 98 off in 26 hours means 136 vs 156
that is down to 87.1 % of normal for that 26 hour time slot
Updates.. we are now at block
1725 and down 4.3% for BTC about 78 blocks down
here is a reason other than obvious China crackdown
"Bulk Used Antminer S17 Lot for Sale Immediately
1798 units of various S17 model miners freshly repaired by Bitmain are available right now for purchase. They are under warranty by Bitmain for 30 days from the date of shipping.
The entire lot must be purchased. The price is $40/TH, not including shipping.
Total of 124,943TH/s for $4,997,720.00.
Batches like this don't come around often. Secure this batch before it's gone!
~ Scott" Note part of a email pitch to buy gear
124 ph off line is about 1/10 of 1% as the network is around 124-135eh
yet we are down 4.3% not .1%
If bitmain has to shut down farms why not list more then the list above?
If it possible they are short repair parts and have a lot of broken gear they can not fix.
We know
s11
s15
s17
s17+
s17e
s17pro
s19pro
t15
t17
t17e
t17+
t19
all use custom psu's
maybe just maybe even Bitmain can't get parts for the psu's it would be funny
oh at 40 bucks th
100th is 4000 usd
100 th makes 23.30 a day it burns around 84kwatts so 5 cent power is 4.20
23.30-4.20 = 19.10 profit
4000/19.10 = 209 day payoff.
... note I cut out shit coin info
1725 and down 4.3% for BTC about 78 blocks down
here is a reason other than obvious China crackdown
"Bulk Used Antminer S17 Lot for Sale Immediately
1798 units of various S17 model miners freshly repaired by Bitmain are available right now for purchase. They are under warranty by Bitmain for 30 days from the date of shipping.
The entire lot must be purchased. The price is $40/TH, not including shipping.
Total of 124,943TH/s for $4,997,720.00.
Batches like this don't come around often. Secure this batch before it's gone!
~ Scott" Note part of a email pitch to buy gear
124 ph off line is about 1/10 of 1% as the network is around 124-135eh
yet we are down 4.3% not .1%
If bitmain has to shut down farms why not list more then the list above?
If it possible they are short repair parts and have a lot of broken gear they can not fix.
We know
s11
s15
s17
s17+
s17e
s17pro
s19pro
t15
t17
t17e
t17+
t19
all use custom psu's
maybe just maybe even Bitmain can't get parts for the psu's it would be funny
oh at 40 bucks th
100th is 4000 usd
100 th makes 23.30 a day it burns around 84kwatts so 5 cent power is 4.20
23.30-4.20 = 19.10 profit
4000/19.10 = 209 day payoff.
... note I cut out shit coin info
should be interesting to see the close out for the next jump do we drop 20 more blocks and go to 118 off pace.
price is dropping a bit 35.4k
And the calculated (up to now) diff change would now be -5%
So the diff change value is still dropping even though there's now only 158 blocks to go, or a little over 1.1 days to go to the next diff change.
I noticed earlier in the 2016 blocks that it was actually very close to 0%, so this is looking like a drop larger than the diff change will show, so might also follow on into the next diff change, causing another drop.
So the diff change value is still dropping even though there's now only 158 blocks to go, or a little over 1.1 days to go to the next diff change.
I noticed earlier in the 2016 blocks that it was actually very close to 0%, so this is looking like a drop larger than the diff change will show, so might also follow on into the next diff change, causing another drop.
one rumor suggests chinese miners are being welcomed to Iran.
which would probably balance out in the end; iranians want to trade with the world, not just chinese companies, and the chinese don't really want their currency in foreigners hands anyway (hence the onshore/offshore version of the yuan)
still, there'll be plenty of drama till it settles down though
which would probably balance out in the end; iranians want to trade with the world, not just chinese companies, and the chinese don't really want their currency in foreigners hands anyway (hence the onshore/offshore version of the yuan)
still, there'll be plenty of drama till it settles down though
I believe Kazakhstan is another expected destination. I heard that one of the largest Chinese mining farms have already started sending their mining rigs there, and that it will take 2 to 3 months, or more, before it can be fully operational again.
Plus why wouldn’t the Chinese not want the Yuan to be held by foreigners? They want to replace the U.S. Dollar as the world reserve currency, don’t they?
This post in the Speculation thread has links that may well give at least part of the reason for has drop: in at least 1 province of China (Xinjiang) power to ALL mining farms was cut off as of June 9 2p local time.
Well the inaccurate estimate for the next diff is still going down also.
Last night it was around -4.4% now it's around -4.7% with 246 blocks to go.
An adjustment change of that much in 10 hours this close to the end might also imply a lot going offline.
The previous -12.61% then 21.53% (early may) was clearly outage related that corrected itself.
The last diff change of -15.97% was most likely due to the price drop.
But another 'probable' drop in about 43 hours suggests more hardware going offline for other reasons since the price hasn't had another clear drop.
Anyone know what that 'unknown' bc1qf274x7... pool is?
Like most every large pool, they've joined the Taproot risk, empty block, SPV cartel (their last block was empty)
Last night it was around -4.4% now it's around -4.7% with 246 blocks to go.
An adjustment change of that much in 10 hours this close to the end might also imply a lot going offline.
The previous -12.61% then 21.53% (early may) was clearly outage related that corrected itself.
The last diff change of -15.97% was most likely due to the price drop.
But another 'probable' drop in about 43 hours suggests more hardware going offline for other reasons since the price hasn't had another clear drop.
Anyone know what that 'unknown' bc1qf274x7... pool is?
Like most every large pool, they've joined the Taproot risk, empty block, SPV cartel (their last block was empty)
this is a hast that happened a few days ago but after that, I assume it will recover. due to several factors, maybe China or Iran itself only prohibits mining and there are several other policies regarding blockchain
There was a news two days ago that China’s Qinghai Province issued a document to stop virtual currency mining operations, now they are not major mining zone but it could still affect Sichuan and Yunnan provinces that have no clear rules and regulations yet.
Meanwhile Sichuan, a much bigger mining region, wants miners to keep mining there (source), so it can't possibly be a hashrate crash.
Temporary hardware faults are also a thing. This has been going on since at least yesterday, possibly earlier. It's probably just F2pool having a glitch, I haven't seen many blocks from them lately which is strange considering they're the biggest pool.
one rumor suggests chinese miners are being welcomed to Iran.
which would probably balance out in the end; iranians want to trade with the world, not just chinese companies, and the chinese don't really want their currency in foreigners hands anyway (hence the onshore/offshore version of the yuan)
still, there'll be plenty of drama till it settles down though
which would probably balance out in the end; iranians want to trade with the world, not just chinese companies, and the chinese don't really want their currency in foreigners hands anyway (hence the onshore/offshore version of the yuan)
still, there'll be plenty of drama till it settles down though
Funny though, since I'm the one who spends so much time explaining about block probabilities to people, that a 2 hour and a 1hr one shortly after surprised me 
First I thought you were trolling with it, I was really surprised seeing you posting this.
Then according to Sino Global Capital, Xinjiang region has shut down mining because of a “rectification policy”, and that there are also currently other regions, Shihezi, Changji, and Korlam.
https://twitter.com/sinoglobalcap/status/1402669487988514816
Although it also gave some hopium, “ It is unclear whether all of these restrictions will remain in place after the upcoming CCP anniversary this month”.
https://twitter.com/sinoglobalcap/status/1402669487988514816
Although it also gave some hopium, “ It is unclear whether all of these restrictions will remain in place after the upcoming CCP anniversary this month”.
This actually matches the previous situation, we had a 25%-30% drop at that time, now we're seeing around 100 blocks per day, 102 currently in the last 24, if indeed they're shutting down and we're just entering a new period by Sunday with a 25% higher difficulty that it should be it's a deja-vu alright.
Can't we have at least two weeks period with not some crap happening?
Or they decided to mine the crap out of another coin for some reason.
Bcash has barely 2Exa, Sv has around 0.7, there is simply no coin there to point 5Exash and not lose a ton of money.
Yeah, something is definitely up with BTC.com they had 12 or so blocks on June 10th.
They had a block a few seconds before midnight EST on the 10th (UTC -4)
And none in the last 10+ hours.
Even dropping from 17 to 12 EH/s they should have had some.
Either as I said before they broke something really badly, or they forked off into their own world. [Yes that's the same as broke it badly] Or they decided to mine the crap out of another coin for some reason.
Makes you wonder, did the mining ban say "Bitcoin" and not "Cryptocurrency" so they are testing the ban....
Edit: About 45 minutes after I made this post they found a block.
-Dave
They had a block a few seconds before midnight EST on the 10th (UTC -4)
And none in the last 10+ hours.
Even dropping from 17 to 12 EH/s they should have had some.
Either as I said before they broke something really badly, or they forked off into their own world. [Yes that's the same as broke it badly] Or they decided to mine the crap out of another coin for some reason.
Makes you wonder, did the mining ban say "Bitcoin" and not "Cryptocurrency" so they are testing the ban....
Edit: About 45 minutes after I made this post they found a block.
-Dave
Interesting!
Does anyone know where the declining hashrate is coming from? Could it be related to the Chinese authorities cracking down on mining farms in China and closing a few overnight? That would be the only explanation for me at the moment!
Does anyone know where the declining hashrate is coming from? Could it be related to the Chinese authorities cracking down on mining farms in China and closing a few overnight? That would be the only explanation for me at the moment!
Seems like this is the case, it coincide with the news that the Chinese government is cracking down on bitcoin mining. And there could be farms voluntarily shutting their services and then Chinese media putting some spin on it.
Short term it can effect the price, but there's no need to panic. Maybe this "news" is already price-in as ber bitcoin is just hovering to $36k-$37k.
Interesting!
Does anyone know where the declining hashrate is coming from? Could it be related to the Chinese authorities cracking down on mining farms in China and closing a few overnight? That would be the only explanation for me at the moment!
Does anyone know where the declining hashrate is coming from? Could it be related to the Chinese authorities cracking down on mining farms in China and closing a few overnight? That would be the only explanation for me at the moment!
Yeah, it is starting to look like it was just luck and coincidence after all.
Of course since the hash rate looks like it is already down some, over the past few days as Stompix mentioned, the probabilities of longer blocks gets more likely.
So that may be all the cause was.
Funny though, since I'm the one who spends so much time explaining about block probabilities to people, that a 2 hour and a 1hr one shortly after surprised me
Since the list I mentioned, there's been poolin, viabtc and the unknown bc1qf274x7... pool.
Seems to already cover all the 10+EH pools (and few smaller) except BTC.com
Of course since the hash rate looks like it is already down some, over the past few days as Stompix mentioned, the probabilities of longer blocks gets more likely.
So that may be all the cause was.
Funny though, since I'm the one who spends so much time explaining about block probabilities to people, that a 2 hour and a 1hr one shortly after surprised me
Since the list I mentioned, there's been poolin, viabtc and the unknown bc1qf274x7... pool.
Seems to already cover all the 10+EH pools (and few smaller) except BTC.com
And since BTC.com is not just their own internal miners not finding blocks it could be something else within their network went really wrong.
Looks like they lost about 5 EH/s of hash over the last day. No idea if it was their own miners or external ones.
https://imgur.com/PGniyTl
From here: https://pool.btc.com/?_ga=2.197132335.1206610082.1623367381-1275819641.1573002512
On mobile, so I can't insert the image for some reason.
-Dave
There was a news two days ago that China’s Qinghai Province issued a document to stop virtual currency mining operations, now they are not major mining zone but it could still affect Sichuan and Yunnan provinces that have no clear rules and regulations yet.
Like I said before, there should be redistribution of Bitcoin mining to other countries, better sooner than later and South America looks very interesting now.
Bitmain is already working on this and they had a meeting for mining industry moving abroad, and exporting to North America and Kazakhstan.
https://twitter.com/btcinchina/status/1402629163387744256
Like I said before, there should be redistribution of Bitcoin mining to other countries, better sooner than later and South America looks very interesting now.
Bitmain is already working on this and they had a meeting for mining industry moving abroad, and exporting to North America and Kazakhstan.
https://twitter.com/btcinchina/status/1402629163387744256
Quote
According to the @btccom_official, the interval between two Bitcoin blocks recently was as long as 2 hours, the delay may be related to the recent two days of the major mining pool computing power dropped significantly.
https://twitter.com/btcinchina/status/1403271861589348357Then according to Sino Global Capital, Xinjiang region has shut down mining because of a “rectification policy”, and that there are also currently other regions, Shihezi, Changji, and Korlam.
https://twitter.com/sinoglobalcap/status/1402669487988514816
Although it also gave some hopium, “ It is unclear whether all of these restrictions will remain in place after the upcoming CCP anniversary this month”.
Yeah, it is starting to look like it was just luck and coincidence after all.
Of course since the hash rate looks like it is already down some, over the past few days as Stompix mentioned, the probabilities of longer blocks gets more likely.
So that may be all the cause was.
Funny though, since I'm the one who spends so much time explaining about block probabilities to people, that a 2 hour and a 1hr one shortly after surprised me
Since the list I mentioned, there's been poolin, viabtc and the unknown bc1qf274x7... pool.
Seems to already cover all the 10+EH pools (and few smaller) except BTC.com
Of course since the hash rate looks like it is already down some, over the past few days as Stompix mentioned, the probabilities of longer blocks gets more likely.
So that may be all the cause was.
Funny though, since I'm the one who spends so much time explaining about block probabilities to people, that a 2 hour and a 1hr one shortly after surprised me
Since the list I mentioned, there's been poolin, viabtc and the unknown bc1qf274x7... pool.
Seems to already cover all the 10+EH pools (and few smaller) except BTC.com
Since BTC does not know the "human clock" but it's easy for us to see:
In the last hour there were 6 blocks. 6AM to 7AM EST so things might be getting back to normal.
From 4AM to 5AM there were 5 blocks.
But then as the OP pointed out there were some really long stretches in there.
Going to have to see what happens over a longer time period.
-Dave
In the last hour there were 6 blocks. 6AM to 7AM EST so things might be getting back to normal.
From 4AM to 5AM there were 5 blocks.
But then as the OP pointed out there were some really long stretches in there.
Going to have to see what happens over a longer time period.
-Dave
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