Every single other device out there bought today is already unprofitable and will be so until ASIC makers cut their prices at least in half.
So true... I feel sorry for peoples who still buy 50GH/s miners at twice the price you could get a 60GH/s miner a few months ago... I would definitely wait for prices to drop before buying another ASIC now. Being at the end of the line, when you receive your order, you won't make ROI.
The only one thing is that to still be "part of the game" in a few months, you'll need an ASIC. All the rest will be like having a very power-hungry CPU today. And I think it's safe to assume that once the difficulty goes up, and people calculate the ROI, then ASIC will just stop selling at the ridiculous prices they are now. The prices will drop, and ASIC will get faster too. Until then, as said, the high prices are sustained only because peoples are bad in math and basing their ROI based on today's difficulty, in an dream world where they would get their ASIC tomorrow, with current difficulty.
Aye. Also, think about the fact that ASICs are mostly (or entirely?) sold in usd, so if and while btc/usd goes down they become even more unprofitable at current prices.
So you got difficulty AND btc/usd both directly affecting ROI: diff quickly going up, and btc/usd trending down.
Looking bleak.
ASICMiner is the only one shipping with reasonable lead times. They sell for BTC. Anyone selling for USD is only selling you a preorder.
Yeah but they are not exempt from the crime. Take for example the usb miners they are selling right now. Approximately 1btc according to the groupbuy currently ongoing.
1btc = 330mh
That's absolutely ridiculous. That much hashing power with the current (somewhat slowed down) diff rate growth will never generate 1 btc, never ever.
Let's walk through this: http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/
Let's do it in BTC terms, so set USD/BTC to 1 and price to 1. Set electrical rate to 0.0009 (about $0.09/KWh). Set hashrate to advertised 334. Power Consumption: 2.5 W
Now, let's set profitability decline to 0.05, which is an assumption that we will have a 20x increase in difficulty over the next year.
Hardware break even 1 year, 1 day
Oh, and the ones I have in hand are hashing at 400MH/s, but shhhh.
at 10% every 11days
@ 1btc cost
you break even in a year. -2% for pool fee
keep in mind, last 12 cycles, average 17% increase
10% increase every 11days is optimistic.
I think that whatever the BTC price does, at this point, just filling the pre-orders, the hashrate will rise. And now, ASIC is a lot more profitable, power consumption vs return income. So, even if price goes to 50$, or even 10$, ASIC will come!
or LTC and other scrypt coins raise relative to BTC (in which case we'll see GPU migration). But until now, it's pretty staying near 1 to 1.
+1 on that last sentence!
