Topic: Have we peaked for this cycle? (Read 205 times)

Not really, but this is one of the moments in which the whales are going to do anything they can to make you believe so, I will say that this is one of the most dangerous times as people are thinking on the fact they already got profits and maybe it is time to get out of the market only to sell their coins to a few whales which then pump the price many times higher, this is natural and if I were you I would not be worried at all, even if I consider the current drop to be of a considerable size.

I'd say this is the major short term problem. People who don't understand bitcoin (including Musk, though in his case I think it's more that he bent to the will of the bad press which is written by people who don't understand bitcoin...though also he is so focused on pumping dogecoin and manipulating markets I don't think he really cares one way or the other), are pumping this anti-bitcoin energy FUD. Now, there are PLENTY of rich people and business executives who understand all this energy FUD is nonsense. Many of them probably personally own Bitcoin but haven't bought it through their companies yet. These people won't be turned off and will probably be more likely to buy bitcoin on the cheap the next few months once they feel safe it has bottomed (which it seems to be doing this Spring). But of course the energy FUD will keep people who just don't know the first thing about Bitcoin away from buying in for the first time (both retail and institutional) because they simply don't know any better so they will fall for what they are hearing in the anti-bitcoin media.

In the end, of course the energy FUD will weaken or just become long term noise as all the other rounds of anti-bitcoin FUD have become, and Bitcoin prevail. But it could be a few more months yet before momentum picks up again and we see Bitcoin pushing new ATHs.

Most likely scenario (as I've been saying for months now), is a long term bull market for YEARS rather than a single huge bull run this year - seems pretty obvious now the one year huge bull run to like $200k isn't happening, and I don't see any reason to think a bear market is coming, so my prediction of a long term bull market, a supercycle, seems more likely than ever. Expect gradual growth for years to come without the big crypto winters we're used to. This is just the first cooling off period of the perhaps 5-10 year bull super cycle. Which ain't bad considering bitcoin 6x'd in like 4-5 months. I could see Bitcoin moving to/above $100k this Fall before cooling off again for a bit.

Nah not even close. Still early staged of a long term bull market.

I would say we have peaked for the first stage of the bull market. Past few months dumb money has been flowing into shitcoins (look at all the failed "money" coins that have pumped past few months: xrp, bch, nano, etc not to mention the joke coins like doge, shiba, and safemoon), combined with massive anti-bitcoin FUD even from those who do invest in crypto (obviously most recently Musk). This has caused the initial stage of the bull run to come to an end as we've seen bitcoin go sideways the past 3 months. Pretty much we just need a catalyst to start things up again. Could be a big company announcing they bought bitcoin, could be US ETFs get approved, could just be a few smaller announcements and maybe the FUD quiets down for a bit, hell could even just be people dumping all the shitcoins they've pumped recently in order to buy cheap bitcoin.

Looks like Bitcoin is bottoming in the 40,000s and it could be another 3 months or so before it starts moving up again passed $60k and to new ATHs, starting the second stage of this multi/many-year bull market.

Right now the anti-bitcoin energy FUD is very strong with Musk buying into the nonsense now. Nothing about the market or the macro environment has changed, but lots of anti-bitcoin propaganda going around right now. Give it a few more months to clear out, and just be buying cheap bitcoin in the meantime.

For those worried about "we hit the top we're in a bear market now". Stop worrying. Look at the charts. There was no big peak, no blow off top, no insane run. Things just gradually cooled off and now the FUDsters are having their day as bitcoin is bottoming, just like in late 2018/early 2019 and every other bottom when the bitcoin haters take charge for a bit. But I'd say don't expect to be making a bunch of money the next few months. But do expect >$100k to be the norm by next year.

It is 100% confirmed that we are now in a bear market -- the last bitcoin bear market. This is the bear market that'll just continue on forever, because it's the death-of-bitcoin bear market. There will never be another ATH, and, yes, we have peaked; but not merely for a cycle. The price has peaked for good. There will be no more peaks. Bitcoin is overdone.

There's certainly a big possibility that we are indeed in a bear market already, the price has lost its momentum a long time ago and when a huge momentum disappears, it usually leads to a trend reversal.


Elon's FUD would probably discourage quite a lot of companies from publicly owning Bitcoin, as tech companies wouldn't want to be labeled as polluters.

It’s not looking good atm.  But like 2017 in my ‘critique my analysis’ thread, there were a few times when I said ‘this is it, sell’ but then BTC goes on higher.  Lol.  Could you say maybe this time it’s different?  Maybe...  I mean who could really tell.  But one thing I’d like to ask you:  If you’re being honest, what’s your first impression with this chart?  Is it bullish or bearish?



Edit:  Tbh I wouldn’t blame anybody who has already tethered up a bit.

Yeah, I also don't see it as "sideways" movement, actually if you extend it to January to May, there's no such pattern, bitcoin will go down and then go back up again, rinse and repeat. So we can't say if we have peaked already as we all know that the price is very volatile. Right now we can say that we are in bearish scenario, but what if the price bounce back in the next three months? Their is no really an answer until we see what will be the price at the end of the year.

I believe there is much more bullish potential than bearish; as the economy, utilities, mining and crypto all rise. It's been hard to tell what the market thinks, which makes it hard to position your investments. However, with so much potential for rapid growth, I'm sure it'll show up on the charts any day now.

3 months of sideways movement means that people are not willing to sell and they are keep on accumulating bitcoin.  I am sure that we will pump very high again in the near future.
Being a noob, you should not get panic and try to look on the big picture. Bitcoin is bullish fundamentally.

Definitely close to the bottom from the last 3 months though. I'd reckon we wouldn't go up much from now, only sideways of around $40 to maybe $55k or so. That, or we're going down to below $40 before doing more sideway, though it's unlikely since there are still a lot more other investors waiting to enter the market and I highly doubt they wouldn't enter the market at the sight of an opportunity. Ofc, if the price keeps going down to below even $30k, a dump may be quite apparent.

I believe so.

Institutional interest is still going strong, but price action has stalled substantially and retail interest is fatiguing.

People also recognise that we are nearing the tail-end of the timeframe in which bull markets generally occur in the cryptospace (just about 1 year after halving), which becomes almost like a self fulfilling prophecy.

Although there is always a possibility that we'll see further hikes before a sharp decline. With the mania at such depths, there is virtually no rationality in pricing anymore and any arbitrary piece of news/update could swing prices by double digits per day.

We don't know the answer to that as the market is continuously doing what it naturally does which is going up and down as usual, if there is a big dump and it was down for a year then we could safely say that bitcoin have already peaked.

Those 3 months were not a "sideways" movement. From March up to May, Bitcoin has been gradually increasing. Though there are always a market correction from time to time after a good bounce, which is more likely what's happening with Btc's price today.
Nobody could really give you a definite answer, because nobody knows what figure Bitcoin would peak before the bear takes over the market.

I don't think we have peaked. There is still institutional demand and I don't think companies are going to blindly follow Musk, as I said in another thread. Bitcoin is the best asset to hedge against the massive printing we are witnessing and there is reduced offer because of the halving and people withdrawing from exchanges, so the price has to go up. I think we are going to reach (and surpass) $100k this year.

We haven't peaked yet. We might have already bottomed though. We are actually still in a bull season but the interruption caused by the attention-seeking Elon Musk has made the price shaken a bit. This has effectively caused some panic selling among weaker hands and FUD believers. But then this is very temporary. As soon as the effect of a mere tweet from Elon would settle down, the rise would resume. I am still bullish of Bitcoin within the whole year.

Nope, we haven't yet because if BTC had already peaked, it could have plummet sharply down with the news like IRS asking the data from Kraken and Binance but it's not really going down as the chart only run sideways. Elon may have contributed some traders to sell but it's not going to be enough when in the market n the institutional level are buying.

Forget about Elon Musk now, there could be another next big company that will invest into bitcoin. And this might cover what Elon musk is doing. We might be in a struggle to keep up with that $50k range, but we might see another break out run.


And with that said, we haven't reach the top price for 2021. There could be some unexpected upside cycle in the next quarter that will push the price to the next level again.

There really isn't any major news right now that could be the catalyst to another big rally. Most of the sentiment in the mainstream media is negative towards bitcoin and that could make companies hesitant to invest right now.

Every month we have seen Bitcoin hitting all time high, maybe this is the first time that we won't see the pattern not repeating. However, I'm still not convinced that we have hit the peaked price. We still have a long way to go, 2021 is not over yet and so many thing can happen in a blink of an eye and go on full bull run again.

So I would say no, we might be trading sideways, so take advantage of it and continue to accumulate. Bitcoin should be seen as long term investments or at least wait for the end of the year price.

3 months already. I don't see any three months of sideway. If there is a side way and last up to three months it only began since May. I will meet you again in August or September.

3 months will not be exact end time of this sideway, it can be sooner or later than 3 months. Who knows the Bitcoin market will have another big institute to join or another big influential person to join and shill it?

If another Elon Musk appear in next one month, the side way will finish in June.