Topic: Have we seen the lowest low of this bear market? - page 3. (Read 542 times)

But as things stand, I don't see any impact from the war between Palestine and Israel on bitcoin. Bitcoin grew in the last week of October and we are still trading above $34K. I think not every war will affect bitcoin and the world economy, big wars will have an impact but small wars I doubt it.


And if the ETF is not approved, what will happen to bitcoin? I also saw a thread about this and I also want to emphasize again that bitcoin has grown millions of times over the years without an ETF. So whether the ETF is approved or not, bitcoin will still reach $150k, not just $50k.

That is the halving price , in the day of halving itself but the total effect in the coming months are far different because the price even go almost x10 from that very day.

Which means we must talk about what is the value after the halving and how much did it take to record each ATH.


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Going back to OP , we have gone long time from that 10k below price so sorry if you did not manage to accumulate from those days because surely you are facing a high value purchase now.

I have never heard and never want to hear any experts or celebrities analyze bitcoin. In my prediction, I think we have hit the bottom in this bear season and it happens in 2021. Those who continue to wait and believe that we will see more drops while the halving approaches should review their plans and change accordingly. I think it is unlikely that bitcoin will drop to $10k even if there are more widespread wars or any black swans.

In the current state of chaos, the impact on the price of Bitcoin can be seen because, if seen, the Palestine and Israel conflict has already impacted the price, even though both of them are small countries. But in war situations, every bitcoin holder sold their bitcoin to meet their needs. Taking this topic, if WW3 starts, I think it can have an impact on the price of Bitcoin, which has never happened in the history of Bitcoin, because a small piece of bad news can have an impact on the price of Bitcoin (Covid). Why can't war definitely have an impact?


Of course, I agree with you that if ETF approval is seen as positive, then surely there can be a huge gain in the price of Bitcoin because, if seen from a technical perspective, currently the United States is making 97.7% of global trading volume for crypto-related ETFs. So as ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said, "If spot bitcoin is approved, then demand will be greater than daily supply of bitcoin,", so it can be concluded that bitcoin can go up to 50k, 150k, and even 180k. You can see the rest of the details in this post.

Yeah I was around in November when we’re had that dead cat and we’re about to break the lows, almost seemed like a given, but I think we double bottomed and rallied from there.

There was lots and lots of fear. Basically everyone was freaking out about the exchange they use and whether they were another Ftx. Took months to calm everyone down. So since we couldn’t break $15K then I would say the low is in unless there is a massive recession or something similar.

Black swan events like Terra and FTX don't usually occur and it's bad to have FTX fiasco only a few months after Terra fiasco. These two fiascos mostly dump Bitcoin to its bottom of the long lasting bear market. I agree with you that low price after FTX fiasco is like a bottom of this bear market already.

I still open with scenario of at least one black swan event or just massive fud to dump Bitcoin market like in 2020 we had it before the halving. I don't know what will be a next tool for market maker to dump the market in first quarter of 2024 before the halving. Because black swan event like Covid-19 which was announced in March 2020 by WHO is very barely seen.

Most likely yes, and although some people like to speculate on extraordinary events affecting the price, I prefer to go on the basis of what is most likely. At the point of the cycle we are at and the recent price trend the most normal thing is that we do not return to sub $20K levels, but rather the opposite. Could some event as happened in its day with COVID-19 cause such a fall? Yes, but I do not rely on what I cannot predict. And in the case of wars, there is no direct relationship that indicates that they necessarily affect the market up or down.

What we've seen after FTX, for me, was the bottom. I know bitcoin is always unpredictable and it does exactly the same opposite of what everybody is expecting but right now, between the ETFs and the halving, I really struggle to see how it could go below $15-16k again, we're talking about losing more than 50% from the current value. Maybe we'll go down again to $25-28k, maybe even a little lower, but below $20k I don't know, I don't want to say it's impossible but almost.

Well if you waited for 9.9k to buy you fucked up 🆙.

The 9.9k ship is gone by by .

Do a dca and set a few dip buys. say

25250
23230
21210
19190

good luck and next time think dca and some dip step ladders down.

You are right there. I also believe that a few days or weeks from now it is possible to have an exit liquidation, but even so, I still don't want to lead the market chart. In my opinion, that's what I read on the chart, and if we check or take a look at the movement of Dxy and others, we will see that there will really be changes in the price value of Bitcoin.

Although the market is very unpredictable because it is volatile, it will still remain that no one really knows what will happen in the future. Right now, all we can do is make predictions and speculate.

In 2020 the lowest low of a bear market happened just months before the halvening, which was highly unusual, because the price should be expected to grow at that point. This happened because of the panic from governments announcing lockdowns due to covid, and the crash was very short-lived and Bitcoin quickly returned to its expected trajectory.

So, if there won't be any black swan events, there will be no reason for Bitcoin price to go down too much, because we're supposed to be leaving the bear market at this stage.

In my own instinct, we cannot be sure if we already saw the bottom of the current market situation today.

There are guys who are like "$30k, $25k, $20k, etc. is the new bottom", but eventually surpassed their expectations and got even lower than that.

I believe that there would be unexpected happenings along the way without us knowing that the market may tumble anytime after successfully staying at a specific range for so long.

Just like today since the listing of IBTC in the DTCC, the price is just steady within the $33.8k to $34.2k as of this time of writing. Although that the bulls are doing their best to maintain a key support level, that doesn't mean we are out of the woods yet.

Probably the next big black swan who might have the "FTX-level" impact would be a challenge for the Bitcoin bulls to hold on as much as possible making sure that the support level wouldn't break to avoid further retracement going south.

So for me, there's still a possibility that we could still revisit the lowest of the lows in the current crypto market if ever the bulls would lose momentum in keeping the support level steady and strong.

You can predict what you want but there is no way you can outsmart the unpredictable market conditions whether if it's on a bearish or bullish trend.

I can say that 30k level is a strong one for now, unless, as you said, there will be worst events that will happen in the months to come.
So for now, I don't think we will go back to 20k and below, but who knows, we can't be very sure in this market as one hard blow can make the market go down fast.

15k would be the lowest low because the price is now at 34k and it's still needs to break the multiple support levels to make another lowest low which is very impossible to happen in just a couple of weeks since I'm basing in the weekly time frame. So franky1 is right in saying that it only happens when there is underlying fault in the code. For me, I consider that 30k is a very strong support which is if there is a drastic drop in price, that's the only price it will go down.

Aside from that, World War III is impossible to happen because government will never benefit the war because no matter the result will only a waste of resources.

I learned that you don't listen to people's opinions as they are just personal thoughts and speculation, and I learned it the hard way when I once invested based on what I heard. In as much as people will reply to you, keep in mind that people will always have opinions and opinions can't be wrong as everyone has the right to one. Good luck!

This is all I can tell you; the others who think that each bitcoin will go back to 15k-20k are now vague based on my analysis. Even if we say that everything the experts are saying is just prediction and speculation, if we look at history, you will see that the chart of Bitcoin from then until now is all up, and I have not seen anything all down. Can't you see anything?

That means that whatever he said before will fall to this value, and if he sees that it is impossible to happen, he can take back or change what he said, and whatever the reason is, for sure he will not say that. It seems that many people gave negative thoughts to bitcoin, but in the end they were just embarrassed. You know my point.

The crystal ball works by aligning it with historical data from bitcoin charts, past events, etc. You mention something interesting, War to come and the one that is ongoing, and there is such a disconcerting variable, that perhaps the closest thing we can see is the pandemic, it was not a conventional war, it was a pandemic, but you remember the behavior of bitcoin for those years, no, review, the point is that there is nothing new, just take all the existing resources, technical analysis, opinions and decipher your actions, then give monetary value to those decisions by taking positions in the market, because if some They want the answer as to whether the +30k will be maintained with a current bonus of +4k,(actual price +$34k, today) the answer is create an action plan; DCA, sell, hodl, sell-buy, leverages, or simply wait for the before-halving-later, or Don't even do anything until 2030, the year in which we will surely have 6 base figures.  

For me yes, it seems that we have weathered the storm for this month. And no longer gonna see lowest lows, or at least a crash to $20k as the sentiments turns into bullish this month and most like will continue pre-halving.


Did you see the geo-political events in the background affecting the price negatively? No, so I do not think it will put a a dent in the market. Even last year, with the Ukraine vs Russia war, the price was not affected by it. It was the Terra Luna and the FTX collapse that has shaken the market to bring it to it's lowest low.

I recently made a thread regarding the $50,000 mark and the possibilities of surpassing it. In my opinion, Bitcoin won't face any major difficulties surpassing it within the upcoming year, certainly not for 2023, unless it's approved by Blackrock, but even then, it looks too optimistic for the two months that are left.

Personally, I don't think we'll see any major crashes below $25,000 in the upcoming period unless a major event occurs. Being denied the right to be listed as an ETF by Blackrock is certainly one of them, but I don't believe that its effects will last forever, even though it's unlikely to. Who knows, a new ATH might be closer than we think.

You shouldn't listen too much those so-called forecasters when you trade, because if you lose money, you will just accuse them and you won't learn from your mistakes.
Regarding ETF approval I don't think it will have a significant impact on the price, as it is already priced in by the market IMO and because CME and CBOE futures listings along with Bakkt carried high expectations towards the community but didn't really pull up the price sustainably at the end.