Have you made money by gambling on satoshi dice?

odolvlobo

legendary

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Quote from: dooglus on September 16, 2013, 08:36:44 PM

Quote from: odolvlobo on September 16, 2013, 07:58:33 PM

A truly representative poll will show that, of the people that have played, slightly more than 50% have lost and slightly less then 50% have won.

I don't think so. Most people who have played have played more than once. The longer you play, the greater the chance that you're down not up.
A month or so ago I looked at the stats for Just-Dice.com. There were about twice as many losers as winners, and the house edge there is about half that of SatoshiDice at just 1% compared to SD's 1.9%, so I imagine the ratio of winners to losers is even lower at SD.

Hmm, I think you are right. The more someone plays, the closer they get to the expected value. That will narrow the distribution, putting more people on the losing side.

dooglus

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Quote from: odolvlobo on September 16, 2013, 07:58:33 PM

A truly representative poll will show that, of the people that have played, slightly more than 50% have lost and slightly less then 50% have won.

I don't think so. Most people who have played have played more than once. The longer you play, the greater the chance that you're down not up.

A month or so ago I looked at the stats for Just-Dice.com. There were about twice as many losers as winners, and the house edge there is about half that of SatoshiDice at just 1% compared to SD's 1.9%, so I imagine the ratio of winners to losers is even lower at SD.

odolvlobo

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Activity: 4466

Merit: 3391

~~A truly representative poll will show that, of the people that have played, slightly more than 50% have lost and slightly less then 50% have won.~~
There is no such thing as a "winning strategy", and you can only "stop while you are ahead" if you stop gambling forever.

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: gabu69 on June 24, 2013, 01:54:09 PM

the expected value ranges from -1.938 up to -4%

so at the end if you really want to bet go for the one with .91 prob to win and retire while you are ahead

The house edge is clearly listed on the site. You've forgotten to take into account the fact that losing bets pay out a little as well.

If you adjust your calculations to take that into account, and use the actual payouts not the rounded ones, you'll see the house edge is 1.9% as advertised.

aksplace

sr. member

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great dice company highly endorsed

btcton

legendary

Activity: 1302

Merit: 1007

Personally, I've never played there Tongue

.

b!z

legendary

Activity: 1582

Merit: 1010

Quote from: gabu69 on June 24, 2013, 01:54:09 PM

DON'T PLAY THIS GAME ffs

it's pure negative EXPECTED VALUE

the expected value ranges from -1.938 up to -4%

so at the end if you really want to bet go for the one with .91 prob to win and retire while you are ahead

either way house will always win in the long run, no matter if you win, the repeated experiment considering thousands of people playing the game, house will win !!!

GENIUS SATOSHIDICE Grin

show me which gambling games have positive ev? lol

kmtan

full member

Activity: 196

Merit: 100

I love Bitcoin

i had tried..play for fun only

roflmao129

full member

Activity: 266

Merit: 100

Didnt play satoshi dice but only won on other sites. Im very lucky.

smitelrh

jr. member

Activity: 59

Merit: 10

lost more than 1 btc.

b!z

legendary

Activity: 1582

Merit: 1010

satoshi dice is boring + slow, i only tried it once or twice (and won)

monbux

legendary

Activity: 1736

Merit: 1029

Quote from: RogerK on September 13, 2013, 09:41:33 PM

If the house wouldnt win in the long run it would loose money. Every Casino game is -EV. Always. Else the Casino would go Bankrupt. The only thing that CAN happen is that the house will have a really bad streak, that CAN happen if the investments get really big...

When that happens, they hire the mafia to take you out Roll Eyes

RogerK

newbie

Activity: 10

Merit: 0

If the house wouldnt win in the long run it would loose money. Every Casino game is -EV. Always. Else the Casino would go Bankrupt. The only thing that CAN happen is that the house will have a really bad streak, that CAN happen if the investments get really big...

If someone would bet insane amounts on low Probability bets and wins, Satoshi could go broke by that

Nvm i just see that there are maximum amounts on the low probability ones..

gabu69

newbie

Activity: 2

Merit: 0

DON'T PLAY THIS GAME ffs

it's pure negative EXPECTED VALUE

the expected value ranges from -1.938 up to -4%

http://anonymouse.org/cgi-bin/anon-www.cgi/http://img33.imageshack.us/img33/3852/9e7v.jpg

so at the end if you really want to bet go for the one with .91 prob to win and retire while you are ahead

either way house will always win in the long run, no matter if you win, the repeated experiment considering thousands of people playing the game, house will win !!!

GENIUS SATOSHIDICE Grin

b!z

legendary

Activity: 1582

Merit: 1010

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: Bitcoinm on April 25, 2013, 12:08:48 AM

Made money and then lost it all. The trick is to play, win, and STOP lol

Exactly!

i lost 4 BTC a six months ago on satoshi dice (that time all i had was 5 BTC - serious loss Sad

)
These days a played a bit on primedice.com (very nice service btw) and won some BTC Tongue

But seriously about gambling:
you can win on such sites only with strategy Bitcoinm was talking about. If you will keep playing for too long, eventually you will lose everything (and yes 12 losses with 50% probability looks almost impossible, but more you play, the closer this situation is Cheesy

)

GAMBLE ONLY AS MUCH COINS AS YOU CAN LOSE WITHOUT ACCUSATIONS.

I don't like primedice, I've never won anything, ever.
I know it's supposed to be "provably fair", but I've lost their free rolls during the promotion (50% game, even 75% games) maybe 25+ times and lost my own coins 10+ times too without ever winning.

Zaih

hero member

Activity: 504

Merit: 500

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: Bitcoinm on April 25, 2013, 12:08:48 AM

Made money and then lost it all. The trick is to play, win, and STOP lol

Exactly!

i lost 4 BTC a six months ago on satoshi dice (that time all i had was 5 BTC - serious loss Sad

)
These days a played a bit on primedice.com (very nice service btw) and won some BTC Tongue

But seriously about gambling:
you can win on such sites only with strategy Bitcoinm was talking about. If you will keep playing for too long, eventually you will lose everything (and yes 12 losses with 50% probability looks almost impossible, but more you play, the closer this situation is Cheesy

)

GAMBLE ONLY AS MUCH COINS AS YOU CAN LOSE WITHOUT ACCUSATIONS.

Gambling should always be for fun

And fun should never lead to you losing more than will make you upset. And yup, when your upset you make accusations Cheesy

luv2drnkbr

hero member

Activity: 793

Merit: 1026

Quote from: dooglus on May 02, 2013, 01:58:02 PM

Quote from: keatonatron on April 30, 2013, 10:09:28 PM

How do your profits go back in time???

How do you win at satoshidice if you don't have a time machine?

But seriously, since Bitcoin is distributed, and trusts in no central authority at all, the network doesn't know what time it is. We can't rely on a central time server to tell us. So the nodes tell each other what time they think it is, and each node works out how 'wrong' its own clock is based on how different it if from the times as reported by the nodes it talks to.

When a new block is received, we don't throw it away if its timestamp is earlier than the timestamp of the previous block. Maybe the previous block's timestamp was wrong, and the new block's is right. So what happens is we look back about 11 blocks, and look back 1 block, and take the average of those two timestamps. If the new block's timestamp is later than that average, it's accepted. This means that sometimes a block's timestamp is older than the previous block's timestamp, which is probably what you're seeing in the graph.

there is a logical clock protocol to fix this

CasinoBit

sr. member

Activity: 364

Merit: 250

I have bet about 2BTC back at their early days, they deserve their success despite their downsides. Wink

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: keatonatron on April 30, 2013, 10:09:28 PM

How do your profits go back in time???

How do you win at satoshidice if you don't have a time machine?

But seriously, since Bitcoin is distributed, and trusts in no central authority at all, the network doesn't know what time it is. We can't rely on a central time server to tell us. So the nodes tell each other what time they think it is, and each node works out how 'wrong' its own clock is based on how different it if from the times as reported by the nodes it talks to.

When a new block is received, we don't throw it away if its timestamp is earlier than the timestamp of the previous block. Maybe the previous block's timestamp was wrong, and the new block's is right. So what happens is we look back about 11 blocks, and look back 1 block, and take the average of those two timestamps. If the new block's timestamp is later than that average, it's accepted. This means that sometimes a block's timestamp is older than the previous block's timestamp, which is probably what you're seeing in the graph.

bennybong

hero member

Activity: 682

Merit: 500

Quote from: Bitcoinm on April 25, 2013, 12:08:48 AM

Made money and then lost it all. The trick is to play, win, and STOP lol

If only I knew lol Wink

Yeah I've won quite a bit, lost quite a bit. I was stupid to be 'playing' during the massive spike recently... 0.1 BTC was lot to bet at the time, over and over. However I'm about break even at the end of the day...

Topic: Have you made money by gambling on satoshi dice? (Read 4246 times)