b/c HF is going to be getting 400gh/s out of 1 chip vs. KNC needing 4 chips, right there, HF is going to have a significant production cost advantage. so even if KNC does offer a MPP, the cost advantage will eventually grind them down.
That's not true. All that really matters is die size. Whether you have 1 12x12mm chip, or 4 6x6mm chips, or 8 3x3mm chips, the amount of silicon used is the same. In fact, it's actually slightly cheaper because you have less 'white space' around the edge of the wafer (remember, a wafer is a circular shape. If you have a smaller chip, you use less of the wafer)
The other thing is the power draw. More power in a die means more cooling and it becomes more difficult/complex. Since KnC's chips are going to use less power per chip you can use a cheaper cooling system (in this case fans v.s. water cooling.)
It's possible HF's chip is actually more space efficient if they did a 'hand routed' design over a "standard cell" (which KnC used). If that's the case then production costs per chip may be lower.
However, all this talk about how HF's chip is soooo much more efficient then KnC's is a bit ridiculous. The package size doesn't tell you anything about the size of the chip. Unless you have insider information you have no way of knowing how efficient their chips are.
To be honest, it sounds kind of insane, total certainty about something you can't possibly know. No one will know how big their die is until chips are released and someone actually cracks one open to get a look at the actual silicon.
Anyway, it doesn't even matter. All that matters is what they
charge for the chip. If it costs HF $1/Gh/s and they sell it for $14, and it costs KnC $2/Gh/s and they sell it for $10,
then KnC is a better deal .
Given HF's "miner protection plan" the chips must cost less then $2.8/Gh/s.
A lot of people seem really confused about the difference between the profits of the company making the chip and the profits of the actual customer. Production cost won't make any difference at all until all the profits are wrung out and people are selling chips close to their production cost. (And by that time they'll be able to refine their design a couple of times as well)
Well staying back on topic, I just made an order for 12 Baby Jets with next day air. I hope to get them on time. I also have two ASIC SC Single pre-orders from 13 months ago from BFL. I hope to get them in 2 more weeks ™
Could end up like BFL 13 months later
no way.
I think it's possible they might be on time, it really depends on the company that's putting together the actual boxes. It's going to be much more of a challenge for them then KnC. With the Miner protection plan it's an OK deal I guess. At this point I still think LABCOIN shares are the best deal at the moment.