The other thing we cannot control is Bitcoin's price. If bitcoin's price keeps around USD$500, and network hashrate keeps going up to 200PH/s, by that time we shareholders would receive nothing as dividends. Unless Cryptx starts to deploy better GHs/Watts miners. So it's necessary to start next gen custom boards research/production, using better chips like AM gen3 chips or something else.
At that point though, the network hashrate will stagnate or start dropping in which case our dividends will increase.
I do agree with you though that if the connections and funds are available starting research into 20nm or smaller now will only help us down the road.
The hashrate will stagnate / drop only if BTC remains stagnant/dropping over a prolonged period of time (I would say 12+ months). For any time period less than that, there is still mining equipment already being funded/manufactured.
Once the mining equipment is being manufactured/shipping, someone is going to use to for its one and only purpose. BTC would have to be down and stay down for a long time for the difficulty to actually stagnate. Decreasing is even more unlikely, as all profitable hashpower (with respect to electricity cost) would be kept online since it would be making the same amount of / more BTC compared to its previous difficulty period's outputs.
Just did some math, thanks to thegenesisblock.
Cointerra's terraminer IV becomes an immediate loss at 164090MM with $/kwh at 12c which is what I pay. I live near a nuclear plant.
At 30c/kwh it becomes a net loss at 66570MM. I define loss as not mining enough to pay for its own power.
I don't know what KNC, CEX, or any others actually pay per kwh, but I would bet that if the btc/usd exchange rate flatlines for just another 6 months at most we will start see small to medium miners shutting down their rigs.
We do indeed have a LOT of hardware in research/design and production stages worldwide, but just because they are being built doesn't mean they have to turned on if someone can't afford to at the least pay the powerbill from what they mine.
Some hobby miners might be able to foot the power bill for a few months giving the price time to recover, but it will likely happen faster than you think it will. You can't count out other sha coins as a target for that hashing power. PPC seems to be getting quite the boost as of late, 50% or so increase in the last couple of weeks.
To clarify, I don't believe that the price will stay this low for much longer. We may see another dip testing the 350$ range, but if it holds and rebounds from that for a 4th time all is well. IMO there is too much interest in BTC from both the services IE exchanges/businesses, etc and the BTC as a commodity to invest in angles that there is no good reason for it not to start climbing again.