Here are the speculations how $1M/BTC might be possible in 2020...

Slow death

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Quote from: jostorres on June 22, 2019, 02:52:16 AM

Now, based on how bitcoin had recovered from the 2018 downfall, it may test $1M levels in less than 18 months given that how intensively mainstream media may keep on inducing FOMO among all types of investors.

look what happened when the price reached $ 13900

it immediately fell a lot, this proves that it will not be so simple to see prices of $ 15000, and as you already know that for the price to increase, there must be many buyers willing to buy . the question you should ask yourself and: who will buy with the price of 1M? Who's going to buy it for $ 100,000? Do you think there will be a lot of demand if the price is 1M or $ 100,000?

Quote from: jostorres on June 22, 2019, 02:52:16 AM

I believe bitcoin may test $100k levels before end of 2019.

it's impossible

Quote from: jostorres on June 22, 2019, 02:52:16 AM

Already LIBRA, BAKKT and various ETFs are doing enough media things to spread words on cryptos and bitcoins.

but this will not be enough for the price to reach $ 100,000 this year

Baofeng

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Quote from: jostorres on June 22, 2019, 02:52:16 AM

I believe bitcoin may test $100k levels before end of 2019. DO NOT ASK me any technical proof. Your FOMO will not obey any mathematical formula. Reach of awareness on the future of bitcoin is purely random hence I am not involving any analysis for this speculation but based on how bitcoin prices had traded in the past and where it is right now.

$100k? Where will be all the money will come to push the price to that level?

Quote from: jostorres on June 22, 2019, 02:52:16 AM

Already LIBRA, BAKKT and various ETFs are doing enough media things to spread words on cryptos and bitcoins. These (and other related positive news like Wall street listing bitcoin futures etc.) will result in RECURSIVE FOMO which is all, we need. By mid of 2020, we are about to experience another halving which will be the finisher-catalyst to test $1M before end of 2020.

Finally, in my speculation bitcoin may value $1 Billion in next few decades but before that get ready for experiencing many roller-coaster rides.

I think we better set our feet on the ground first. Although I believed that halving could be a catalyst, but I don't think it will be enough to push the price to $1m. Yes, institutional money is flowing, but it doesn't mean that they will exit and book their profits. Probably another all-time-high in 2020, but I doubt that we can even see getting to 6 digits, sorry to burst the bubble for you.

el kaka22

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Quote from: Lucius on June 25, 2019, 06:08:00 AM

It take 10 years from 0 to today $11k, how much time will be needed for $1 million?

You sound like linear whereas bitcoin grows in exponential. Another 10 years is not required to scale same amount of growth. Awareness about the future of bitcoin is the thing here which definitely is not happening in any pattern but known to be happening in rapid random sequences.

We are talking about trillions upon trillions in market cap and to reach there we may not need worlds biggest banks all collectively putting all their investments to bitcoin. Yes, the marketcap is just an indicator and there is no actual backup equivalent to marketcap for any market. We all just need funds which will be capable of driving to those peak levels.

Then what will happen after reaching peak levels ? Market may fall down back to 35% to 28 % and then it will start slowly growing back to same peak levels with decent volume as that time obviously more people will join into bitcoin ecosystem for various reasons. This is how bitcoin had reached $1200 and then $19,800 levels and this time may reach $100k or $500k or $1000k based on how wildly FOMO will take off.

Lucius

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Quote from: exstasie on June 24, 2019, 02:56:03 PM

It's inherently unpredictable. I'm not silly enough to say $1 million within a couple years like him. All I know is, it's crazy to be as confident as you are that price won't continue its exponential rise in the next several years. You seem to have little respect for history.

I also see the potential for Bitcoin to experience an adoption curve like major prevalent technologies like refrigerators, telephones, TV, internet. If that happens, the extreme scarcity of the Bitcoin supply will drive prices up even faster than past bubble cycles, due to an exponential increase in users.

So you say it will not happen "within a couple years" because that is "silly", but in the same time you not agree with speculation that it will take perhaps a decade or more to bitcoin reach to value of $1 million?

I have respect to history, and I know how price is go up and then go down every time, and based on that I expect similar events in future. It is possible that some changes will occur, in the sense that volatility will become less then now, and demand for bitcoin will go up. It take 10 years from 0 to today $11k, how much time will be needed for $1 million? I am not prophet to predict future, it would be nice that this happens in next 5-6 years - but personally I think it will take a little longer than that. Although I have no objection to being completely wrong Wink

WinslowIII

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Quote from: Reid on June 24, 2019, 01:45:21 PM

We might want to stop thinking about that large amount of value of bitcoin in a year or 2.

There is this bad trendy thing that is ongoing outside this forum.
One is that bitcoin price is being pushed up so that crypto currencies will be seen by a large amount of people. Why?!
Libra. People will be introduced to bitcoin for starters and then there will be no difficult time to understand Libra afterwards.

Now, if that happens. A big dump will come again. They will take their money back in exchange for investing in another populated token.
That is why it is a scary market now.

Nobody gaf about this libra coin fucking bullshit.

exstasie

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Quote from: Lucius on June 24, 2019, 06:30:48 AM

Quote from: exstasie on June 23, 2019, 04:56:14 PM

Bitcoin is becoming an established trading commodity on Wall Street. JP Morgan says it's going to be a longstanding traditional asset like gold. Meanwhile, price rose from $0.01 to $20K in under a decade.

Why would you think it would take decades to go another 50x given how early we are on any mass adoption trajectory? You must be assuming Bitcoin adoption is going to slow down? On the contrary, I think it will go exponential like an S-curve at some point.

So you think about bitcoin same as John McAfe? What's your speculation, when price of 1 BTC will be $1 million?

It's inherently unpredictable. I'm not silly enough to say $1 million within a couple years like him. All I know is, it's crazy to be as confident as you are that price won't continue its exponential rise in the next several years. You seem to have little respect for history.

I also see the potential for Bitcoin to experience an adoption curve like major prevalent technologies like refrigerators, telephones, TV, internet. If that happens, the extreme scarcity of the Bitcoin supply will drive prices up even faster than past bubble cycles, due to an exponential increase in users.

Reid

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We might want to stop thinking about that large amount of value of bitcoin in a year or 2.

There is this bad trendy thing that is ongoing outside this forum.
One is that bitcoin price is being pushed up so that crypto currencies will be seen by a large amount of people. Why?!
Libra. People will be introduced to bitcoin for starters and then there will be no difficult time to understand Libra afterwards.

Now, if that happens. A big dump will come again. They will take their money back in exchange for investing in another populated token.
That is why it is a scary market now.

Lucius

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Quote from: exstasie on June 23, 2019, 04:56:14 PM

Bitcoin is becoming an established trading commodity on Wall Street. JP Morgan says it's going to be a longstanding traditional asset like gold. Meanwhile, price rose from $0.01 to $20K in under a decade.

Why would you think it would take decades to go another 50x given how early we are on any mass adoption trajectory? You must be assuming Bitcoin adoption is going to slow down? On the contrary, I think it will go exponential like an S-curve at some point.

So you think about bitcoin same as John McAfe? What's your speculation, when price of 1 BTC will be $1 million? Are you talking about those same JPM and Jamie Dimon who say back in 2017 :

Quote from: WinslowIII on June 23, 2019, 06:33:37 PM

You seem pretty clueless.
Ok, maybe you're right - when bitcoin takes off once again, I'm sure that the 36 million millionaires will just sit around again and think to themselves "not touching this stupid shit."

I'm glad that there is someone in the forum who is not clueless about bitcoin future.

I am not say that that I am right, or that you are completely wrong, but only that we can we can not know what will one millionaire or 36 million of them
do when it comes to bitcoin. We all know that bitcoin is pretty volatile, and you also need to consider the issue of security - to be a millionaire, does not necessarily mean to be smart, and cryptocurrency still requires a bit more use of the brain compared to the fiat.

Maybe they will start invest in bitcoin when first ETF gets approval, this would simplify the situation for buying / selling with additional asset security. Most experts say that this can be a trigger for a great price increase, the only problem is that no one can predict when the first ETF will be approved.

FanEagle

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The one thing that is correct in this is the fact that FOMO has no technical analysis. You may check out any chart you want in the whole world but if people are all of a sudden feeling like bitcoin will go up then it will go up because the market works that way and prices do not go up because chart says so, sometimes chart says so and people react to it but that doesn't have to happen, its all deregulated decentralized currency so whatever people think will happen usually ends up as the result.

However, 1 million dollars is way too much for now, we would need a lot more money input and a lot less people selling however the more price goes up the more people end up selling their currencies to get more cash for living, profit realization is the enemy during that road.

WinslowIII

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Quote from: Lucius on June 23, 2019, 07:06:28 AM

Quote from: WinslowIII on June 22, 2019, 12:47:19 PM

-There are 36 million millionaires in the world and over 7 billion people.

Read the above two points over and over and over again, until it registers in your brain that THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO GO AROUND ONCE DEMAND TRULY KICKS IN.

The fact that we have 36 million millionaires in the world today does not mean they will ever invest in bitcoin, how much billionares is today in word, what about them? The assumption that the whole world will turn to bitcoin is wrong, and dreams about $1 million per BTC is the distant future - not few years, but decades.

Quote from: WinslowIII on June 22, 2019, 02:48:37 PM

I didn't see this price happening the first half of this year. The price went from $4k to $11k so quickly and effortlessly, that I can actually see $1m price happening inside of the next 6 years. If it happens within the next 2 years I will honestly be surprised, but I won't be shocked.

You are fascinated by the usual price increase, but this is nothing which has not happened before in first ten years of bitcoin. Where are you in 2017 when price is go from under $1000 to $20 000? Based on that we should already be close to $1 million, but you forget that after each ATH we have corrections which are up to 90%.

All possible factors need to be considered, not just to look at some of the factors that match you at the given time.

You seem pretty clueless.
Ok, maybe you're right - when bitcoin takes off once again, I'm sure that the 36 million millionaires will just sit around again and think to themselves "not touching this stupid shit."
At some point, it will be clear to all but the most dimwitted that owning a whole bitcoin is a big deal. And there isn't enough to go around, there's no way for all of those millionaires to do that - not even remotely close.

Let me help you with another thing - see, YOU see that bitcoin suffered a huge drop from 2017 peak. The only thing I look at is this: Bitcoin went from hundreds to thousands over the last several years. I don't gaf about the peaks and valleys, that's just details. Before that, it went from pennies to dollars.
Guess where it goes next?

hatshepsut93

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On one hand, people though that going from $400 to $20,000 is impossible, and then Bitcoin did exactly that, but on the other hand Bitcoin can't grow forever, and there's an always looming threat of a massive correction and long-term trend reversal (long-term trend has always been bullish, even during bear markets).

I agree that FOMO sounds like a more probable mechanism for reaching $1M than adoption, because adoption will take time. If everyone will get onboard in one crazy rally - Wall Street, banks, hedge funds, millionaires and billionaires, then $1M can be briefly reached, but how likely is that?

exstasie

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Quote from: Lucius on June 23, 2019, 07:06:28 AM

Quote from: WinslowIII on June 22, 2019, 12:47:19 PM

-There are 36 million millionaires in the world and over 7 billion people.

Read the above two points over and over and over again, until it registers in your brain that THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO GO AROUND ONCE DEMAND TRULY KICKS IN.

The fact that we have 36 million millionaires in the world today does not mean they will ever invest in bitcoin, how much billionares is today in word, what about them? The assumption that the whole world will turn to bitcoin is wrong, and dreams about $1 million per BTC is the distant future - not few years, but decades.

Bitcoin is becoming an established trading commodity on Wall Street. JP Morgan says it's going to be a longstanding traditional asset like gold. Meanwhile, price rose from $0.01 to $20K in under a decade.

Why would you think it would take decades to go another 50x given how early we are on any mass adoption trajectory? You must be assuming Bitcoin adoption is going to slow down? On the contrary, I think it will go exponential like an S-curve at some point.

fabiorem

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Quote from: WinslowIII on June 22, 2019, 12:47:19 PM

You naysayers completely miss why the sky is the limit for a bitcoin price:

-There are 36 million millionaires in the world and over 7 billion people.

-After deducting lost coins and those held by huge whales with no need or desire to sell for fiat in the near future, there MIGHT be 10 million bitcoins that are potentially tradeable. The actual amount is probably far lower.

Read the above two points over and over and over again, until it registers in your brain that THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO GO AROUND ONCE DEMAND TRULY KICKS IN.

I agree about the numbers, but remember that from those 7 billion, 90% were brainwashed to remain poor for their entire lives. This still give us 700 million people.

From the 36 million millionaires, I would estimate that 90% of them want the world to stay poor, because they profit from it. This would give us 3.6 million millionaires.

Lucius

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Quote from: WinslowIII on June 22, 2019, 12:47:19 PM

-There are 36 million millionaires in the world and over 7 billion people.

Read the above two points over and over and over again, until it registers in your brain that THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO GO AROUND ONCE DEMAND TRULY KICKS IN.

The fact that we have 36 million millionaires in the world today does not mean they will ever invest in bitcoin, how much billionares is today in word, what about them? The assumption that the whole world will turn to bitcoin is wrong, and dreams about $1 million per BTC is the distant future - not few years, but decades.

Quote from: WinslowIII on June 22, 2019, 02:48:37 PM

I didn't see this price happening the first half of this year. The price went from $4k to $11k so quickly and effortlessly, that I can actually see $1m price happening inside of the next 6 years. If it happens within the next 2 years I will honestly be surprised, but I won't be shocked.

You are fascinated by the usual price increase, but this is nothing which has not happened before in first ten years of bitcoin. Where are you in 2017 when price is go from under $1000 to $20 000? Based on that we should already be close to $1 million, but you forget that after each ATH we have corrections which are up to 90%.

All possible factors need to be considered, not just to look at some of the factors that match you at the given time.

Febo

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Quote from: jostorres on June 22, 2019, 02:52:16 AM

Finally, in my speculation bitcoin may value $1 Billion in next few decades but before that get ready for experiencing many roller-coaster rides.

1 Bitcoin cant be worth $1 Billion of today's value. Ever. Because there would be way to much energy needed to secure such network. For sure many many times more then whole earth use today.

rdluffy

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Quote from: WinslowIII on June 22, 2019, 03:11:49 PM

Quote from: rdluffy on June 22, 2019, 02:58:20 PM

I have to say, it's good to hear such optimistic thoughts, but 1 million for me it's almost impossible, imagine how much money people have to put on BTC to achieve such level?
For me this is the most reason, it's a huge amount of money needed

I think it would take a trillion usd or less incoming spread out over some time for bitcoin to achieve a 17 trillion dollar market cap. If you think it would take $17 trillion incoming to achieve a $17 trillion mkt cap than you have no understanding of how these markets and market caps actually work.

One trillion is about what the US government adds in debt each year. It's about 1/3 of the state of California's GDP. This gives you some perspective on how little this amount actually is in the big picture.

I did not put any numbers, you are the one saying I have no understanding, let's not suppose other people thoughts ok?

As I said, FOR ME it's almost impossible, but I wish I'm wrong Grin

There is a count I wont do now, about how much BTC will be in circulation in 2020 and a possible 1 million price...

BUK2016

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O p, there is no way in which Bitcoin market value will reach $1m in the coming eighteen months as you speculate in your submission above. No miracle of what so ever can make such height happen and not even the main tream news propaganda can make it happen in eighteen months.

exstasie

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Quote from: DustyRah on June 22, 2019, 02:45:55 PM

We need a large mainstream investor group like Fidelity or Meryll Lynch to allow trading on their own platform.

There's no news of official launch yet, but last month Fidelity said they'd be opening their new cryptocurrency platform for institutional investors "in a few weeks." Interestingly, it sounds like they'll be offering spot trading (not futures) although I could be wrong about that. I haven't seen official specs on their markets yet.

WinslowIII

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Quote from: rdluffy on June 22, 2019, 02:58:20 PM

I have to say, it's good to hear such optimistic thoughts, but 1 million for me it's almost impossible, imagine how much money people have to put on BTC to achieve such level?
For me this is the most reason, it's a huge amount of money needed

I think it would take a trillion usd or less incoming spread out over some time for bitcoin to achieve a 17 trillion dollar market cap. If you think it would take $17 trillion incoming to achieve a $17 trillion mkt cap than you have no understanding of how these markets and market caps actually work.

One trillion is about what the US government adds in debt each year. It's about 1/3 of the state of California's GDP. This gives you some perspective on how little this amount actually is in the big picture.

rdluffy

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I have to say, it's good to hear such optimistic thoughts, but 1 million for me it's almost impossible, imagine how much money people have to put on BTC to achieve such level?
For me this is the most reason, it's a huge amount of money needed

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