Low: 15.0011 (lol - it's trying hard not to fall below $15)! 
Like a hot knife through butter.
Like King Kong off the Empire State Building.
Like the Titanic on the way to the bottom of the Atlantic.
lol
Topic: Here comes the bitcoin crash! - page 2. (Read 7465 times)
Like a hot knife through butter.
Like King Kong off the Empire State Building.
Like the Titanic on the way to the bottom of the Atlantic.
lol
Low: 15.0011 (lol - it's trying hard not to fall below $15)!
Like a hot knife through butter.
Like King Kong off the Empire State Building.
Like the Titanic on the way to the bottom of the Atlantic.
$15 is gone, $10 here we come?
Looking at the market depth, there seems to be a prop at $15 that should hold the market there unless a lot of people decide to dump BTC.
The media attention causes people to sign up and get into bitcoin, the falling prices indicate a crash.
Just wait until the local news starts doing stories on the "latest craze" of BC about 6 months from now. Then you'll really see the price go up, and mining become impossible.
But saying Bitcoin is like the internet is just silly. About as silly as using the internet or paypal (which cant really fail due to who their backers are) as an example of "why bitcoin cant/wont crash".
I dont quite get how the argument of "its like the internet" somehow gives it this unstoppable force quality to all fanatics.
Until bitcoin gets mainstream attention - which it is far far far from having - it will be at risk of failure.
I dont quite get how the argument of "its like the internet" somehow gives it this unstoppable force quality to all fanatics.
Until bitcoin gets mainstream attention - which it is far far far from having - it will be at risk of failure.
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Like the internet itself? Or Paypal?
I think the Internet is just a fad.
Anything with a 300,000% uptick has to stabilize. Hopefully though bitcoin doesn't fade away like so many other internet trends in the past.
Like the internet itself? Or Paypal?
drknark, you are wrong in what you are saying. Your assumption that higher price will get more people to mine is somewhat true but only in the minimal, basically non important, very short term way.
I'll explain why.
Difficulty is changing so rapidly every month, that the ratio between mining vs price will only increase on the long term basis. Even when difficulty will slow down a lot, which I'm sure it will in the near future, it will still keep on going higher at an alarming pace vs bitcoin price. You have to understand that difficulty will change 10x in the span of 60 days.
2011-04-30 difficulty was 109.670
2011-06-30 estimate 1.095.512
Fact that price also moved a lot in the same time is just a coincidence.
I'll explain why.
Difficulty is changing so rapidly every month, that the ratio between mining vs price will only increase on the long term basis. Even when difficulty will slow down a lot, which I'm sure it will in the near future, it will still keep on going higher at an alarming pace vs bitcoin price. You have to understand that difficulty will change 10x in the span of 60 days.
2011-04-30 difficulty was 109.670
2011-06-30 estimate 1.095.512
Fact that price also moved a lot in the same time is just a coincidence.
The bitcoin market is a very strange beast in that it has tons of artificial restrictions that other markets in recent history have not had. When the dotcom bubble occurred (and I was there working in a startup at the time and I really hated the fact that so many instant millionnaires were being created with no real value, and my prediction that it would lead to a depression in the economy for as many years as it would take to bring the market value back down to where it should have been without the bubble did come true) there were already tons and tons of financial institutions set up with decades (centuries?) of infrastructure in place to handle it.
In the bitcoin market, there are all kinds of weird restrictions like the monthy withdrawal limit of Mt. Gox, the difficulty of buying into the market (I'd probably have traded for some bitcoin on Mt. Gox already but I can't be bothered to shuttle my dollars through whatever circuitous route is required to get money into Mt. Gox), the difficulty of using the client (having to download hundreds of megabytes of data to use bitcoin at all must have some kind of dampening effect on its uptake), the lack of understanding that people have about how it works, etc.
I feel like what we're seeing is a boom/bust cycle that is being held back in strange and artificial ways. It's like a bubble made of bubble gum being blown up in a mesh of wire. It expands but then it gets distorted and ends up oddly shaped and strange because its natural expansion is impeded at odd angles and in odd ways.
In the bitcoin market, there are all kinds of weird restrictions like the monthy withdrawal limit of Mt. Gox, the difficulty of buying into the market (I'd probably have traded for some bitcoin on Mt. Gox already but I can't be bothered to shuttle my dollars through whatever circuitous route is required to get money into Mt. Gox), the difficulty of using the client (having to download hundreds of megabytes of data to use bitcoin at all must have some kind of dampening effect on its uptake), the lack of understanding that people have about how it works, etc.
I feel like what we're seeing is a boom/bust cycle that is being held back in strange and artificial ways. It's like a bubble made of bubble gum being blown up in a mesh of wire. It expands but then it gets distorted and ends up oddly shaped and strange because its natural expansion is impeded at odd angles and in odd ways.
Anything with a 300,000% uptick has to stabilize. Hopefully though bitcoin doesn't fade away like so many other internet trends in the past.
lol 15.35
I've thought the resistance levels were really going to be $15 and $20
Although I do hate to say, if it goes below 15, then it probably wont stop till $13, below $13 and we would be in a new $10-$15 bracket
I don't see things going above $20 until this whole threat with the mtgox is resolved, if i was consulting I'd try to get everything priced to a conservative $15-16 exchange rate for now
I've thought the resistance levels were really going to be $15 and $20
Although I do hate to say, if it goes below 15, then it probably wont stop till $13, below $13 and we would be in a new $10-$15 bracket
I don't see things going above $20 until this whole threat with the mtgox is resolved, if i was consulting I'd try to get everything priced to a conservative $15-16 exchange rate for now
When will Yahoo or Google Finance track this? I would like to add it to my standard portfolio page.
Low: 15.0011 (lol - it's trying hard not to fall below $15)!
Heh, if it crashes, I will be getting rich 
I think that Bitcoins will continue to rise until the amount you get for completing a batch goes from 50 to 25 in 18 months or so.
I DO NOT think that the media attention is all you believe it to be. I am and have studied economics, outside of an academic environment, and have been a trader and speculator (accurately) for years.
There were a few news articles on it. Your VERY sensitive to bitcoin news, for the simple reason your on this forum.
For every person that saw something on bitcoins in the media, 10,000 people continues to live in ignorance of its existence.
For Every person that saw something, 1000 of the people that saw it barely looked it over,
Out of those few select people, maybe a couple of people looked into it for 15 minutes
And maybe 1 out of 1000 got here
Bitcoins lack something that's always indicative of a bubble. "The housewife factor"
During the dotcom bubble you had soccer moms talking about owning yahoo and other dotcom stocks.
During the housing bubble you had lower income single mothers dying to own an investment in their future
Go ask your friends mother what a bitcoin is.
And while your at it, ask them how much an ounce of silver or gold goes for. That's how you gauge your bubbles
I DO NOT think that the media attention is all you believe it to be. I am and have studied economics, outside of an academic environment, and have been a trader and speculator (accurately) for years.
There were a few news articles on it. Your VERY sensitive to bitcoin news, for the simple reason your on this forum.
For every person that saw something on bitcoins in the media, 10,000 people continues to live in ignorance of its existence.
For Every person that saw something, 1000 of the people that saw it barely looked it over,
Out of those few select people, maybe a couple of people looked into it for 15 minutes
And maybe 1 out of 1000 got here
Bitcoins lack something that's always indicative of a bubble. "The housewife factor"
During the dotcom bubble you had soccer moms talking about owning yahoo and other dotcom stocks.
During the housing bubble you had lower income single mothers dying to own an investment in their future
Go ask your friends mother what a bitcoin is.
And while your at it, ask them how much an ounce of silver or gold goes for. That's how you gauge your bubbles
It just hit $15.01!! If it goes in the $14's I think things are going to get ugly!
There has to be a reason for price to move
Weekend vs weekdays.
Of course BTC will be volatile, fluctuate a lot, but overall trend is only UP.
yeah would be great. I think higher Difficulty results in higher Prices
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MINING DIFFICULTY HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH BITCOIN PRICE.
Personally I have a third viewpoint. I don't think higher difficulty can result in higher prices, supply will be the same no matter what the difficulty. Therefore only increased demand can result in higher prices.
But saying difficulty has nothing to do with the price cannot, in my mind, be correct either. The most logical connection is that increased price leads to higher difficulty. This is because high prices will make more people buy mining hardware.
Decreasing price would however probably not lead to decreasing difficulty, since most people who already have the hardware will keep running it until the electricity cost is say more than half the income they get.
Well this whole bubble we had last 30 or whatever days was not really unexpected. I'm not saying anyone could see it coming, what I'm saying is when it all started moving it was pretty obvious it has some legs and the run up $33 was the result. Now it certainly needs time to adjust and take out every weak hand that wants out for whatever reason, mostly fear of the unknown by the newbies who bought too high simply hoping for the greater fool effect taking place. This is all great news for early investors and miners who can hold in this shaky times, because now the real trading is starting to evolve.
Where to next?
In the near future, next 10 days, it will be very important if $15 will hold or not, and the total volume we will get in the meantime. As long as there are more and more people coming in this game, more are total number of bitcoins spread around, less are concentrated to a small group of people who could control it to a point. Everything is still so early and all this things will/could change drastically in a year based on the fact that for example right now there's only lets say 50k people trading/mining and in a year there will be 500k people doing the same thing. There is no reason right now for bitcoin to fail at this stage so whoever bought in cheap is pretty safe to hold for long term. That said it doesn't mean they will get rich from it, it only means they are well set for possible gains if things will go the right way.
Let me give you a simple example..
Lets say that right now the only real use for bitcoins is SilkRoad (SR) and float of bitcoins is 3mill (which I doubt, but OK for the explanation it will do). Since SR is the only real consumer of coins their users need to eat up this float for bitcoins to get rare, so when the new group of SR members will want to buy goods there won't be able to because they wont be able to get any new coins. BUT here is a catch. SR sellers, guys who are offering this goods, they don't want to hold bitcoins, they want to exchange them back to $$ ASAP. I'm sure that right now there is a big group of bitcoins owners who are selling goods on SR, who WOULD LOVE to have someone buying all those bitcoin off them on a regular day to day basis, because right now they can only use mtgox, with $10k monthly withdraw limit. If you know what is mainly sold on SR you could have an idea how quickly sellers are turning around $10k worth of goods.
For price to have another real run up like we saw in the last 30 days from $5 to $30 we will need tons of SR buyers wanting to buy 3mill bitcoins which at current trading price would mean $45mill of buying power or more similar services like SR in the very near future.
I don't think we will get one or the other in the very near future, 3mo period, the only way for bitcoin price is to correct itself down. I think $15 will get tested and it will fail based on the fact that it went up way too quick in a super short period of time and the whole move was based on thin hot air. $10 looks very solid for a bottom right now. If we ever get there or not is another question. There has to be a reason for price to move, it can't be based on nothing.
MINING DIFFICULTY HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH BITCOIN PRICE.
Where to next?
In the near future, next 10 days, it will be very important if $15 will hold or not, and the total volume we will get in the meantime. As long as there are more and more people coming in this game, more are total number of bitcoins spread around, less are concentrated to a small group of people who could control it to a point. Everything is still so early and all this things will/could change drastically in a year based on the fact that for example right now there's only lets say 50k people trading/mining and in a year there will be 500k people doing the same thing. There is no reason right now for bitcoin to fail at this stage so whoever bought in cheap is pretty safe to hold for long term. That said it doesn't mean they will get rich from it, it only means they are well set for possible gains if things will go the right way.
Let me give you a simple example..
Lets say that right now the only real use for bitcoins is SilkRoad (SR) and float of bitcoins is 3mill (which I doubt, but OK for the explanation it will do). Since SR is the only real consumer of coins their users need to eat up this float for bitcoins to get rare, so when the new group of SR members will want to buy goods there won't be able to because they wont be able to get any new coins. BUT here is a catch. SR sellers, guys who are offering this goods, they don't want to hold bitcoins, they want to exchange them back to $$ ASAP. I'm sure that right now there is a big group of bitcoins owners who are selling goods on SR, who WOULD LOVE to have someone buying all those bitcoin off them on a regular day to day basis, because right now they can only use mtgox, with $10k monthly withdraw limit. If you know what is mainly sold on SR you could have an idea how quickly sellers are turning around $10k worth of goods.
For price to have another real run up like we saw in the last 30 days from $5 to $30 we will need tons of SR buyers wanting to buy 3mill bitcoins which at current trading price would mean $45mill of buying power or more similar services like SR in the very near future.
I don't think we will get one or the other in the very near future, 3mo period, the only way for bitcoin price is to correct itself down. I think $15 will get tested and it will fail based on the fact that it went up way too quick in a super short period of time and the whole move was based on thin hot air. $10 looks very solid for a bottom right now. If we ever get there or not is another question. There has to be a reason for price to move, it can't be based on nothing.
MINING DIFFICULTY HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH BITCOIN PRICE.
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