(read the whole story before commenting)
So you've been looking at the chart for a while and you're pretty sure a drop is in the cards. However, you're pretty confident that the drop wont be that bad because bitcoin is bigger, has grown, is much more mature, is the future, and wall street is eyeing it, etc. So, come the day the drop begins: Here's how it will go down.
You're going to be looking for a slow drop with lots of bounces at key levels with high volume. It's not going to happen the way you expected. There is going to be less volume than you expected, or the seller is going to be more aggressive than you expected, or the exchanges will be failing. There's going to be lots of fresh FUD too. It's going to go down a lot harder or longer than you expected. Perhaps it even passes the obvious 8K level and goes down to 5.5K or below. Maybe it wont. Either way, you are going to PANIC.
You are going to look at the chart, and think: 'Oh my god, look at all that black space below the chart that isn't filled in, we've broken this curve, is THAT where we're going?? When is this going to stop? What if it doesn't? What is guaranteeing that someone is really going to stop it? What if 10,000,000 coins are left to be dumped?' Everything you think you knew about bitcoin will fall apart. Your confidence will be shot. At this point you're frantically counting the money you have left and just want to get out. You offer a god a sacrifice if he allows just one little bounce for you to get out or make your last trade and keeps the exchanges open for your withdrawal.
You start making some shitty trades. Maybe you make one good trade with a 10% gain. That's it. Then you buy and then immediately sell for a 2% gain, no gain, or even a loss. Finally you sell somewhere within 10% of the bottom, and then immediately it bounces. The bounce is huge.
It bounces 20-50% in the first 15 minutes. It bounces so hard and fast you never have a chance to get in. You pray to the aforementioned god for any kind of aftershock for you to get back in. The god is sitting there confused now. The aftershock either doesn't happen or you miss it. You never get in. You sit there full fiat as it goes up and up and up. You're thinking 'No idiots! What are you doing? How can you buy at such a ridiculous price? Dont you know bitcoin is dead now? Didnt you just see it die???'. Soon it's back up all the way within the vicinity of ATH, and you're still full fiat. Your last hope is resistance from ATH levels.
If you want, you can rebuy 1/3 of the coins you sold, but this is not acceptable. So you become a hardcore permabear and join a bear club with Proudhon and roach. Every day you remind the forum of how bitcoin is a ponzi scam and is going to die at any minute.
I think bitcoin never down So you've been looking at the chart for a while and you're pretty sure a drop is in the cards. However, you're pretty confident that the drop wont be that bad because bitcoin is bigger, has grown, is much more mature, is the future, and wall street is eyeing it, etc. So, come the day the drop begins: Here's how it will go down.
You're going to be looking for a slow drop with lots of bounces at key levels with high volume. It's not going to happen the way you expected. There is going to be less volume than you expected, or the seller is going to be more aggressive than you expected, or the exchanges will be failing. There's going to be lots of fresh FUD too. It's going to go down a lot harder or longer than you expected. Perhaps it even passes the obvious 8K level and goes down to 5.5K or below. Maybe it wont. Either way, you are going to PANIC.
You are going to look at the chart, and think: 'Oh my god, look at all that black space below the chart that isn't filled in, we've broken this curve, is THAT where we're going?? When is this going to stop? What if it doesn't? What is guaranteeing that someone is really going to stop it? What if 10,000,000 coins are left to be dumped?' Everything you think you knew about bitcoin will fall apart. Your confidence will be shot. At this point you're frantically counting the money you have left and just want to get out. You offer a god a sacrifice if he allows just one little bounce for you to get out or make your last trade and keeps the exchanges open for your withdrawal.
You start making some shitty trades. Maybe you make one good trade with a 10% gain. That's it. Then you buy and then immediately sell for a 2% gain, no gain, or even a loss. Finally you sell somewhere within 10% of the bottom, and then immediately it bounces. The bounce is huge.
It bounces 20-50% in the first 15 minutes. It bounces so hard and fast you never have a chance to get in. You pray to the aforementioned god for any kind of aftershock for you to get back in. The god is sitting there confused now. The aftershock either doesn't happen or you miss it. You never get in. You sit there full fiat as it goes up and up and up. You're thinking 'No idiots! What are you doing? How can you buy at such a ridiculous price? Dont you know bitcoin is dead now? Didnt you just see it die???'. Soon it's back up all the way within the vicinity of ATH, and you're still full fiat. Your last hope is resistance from ATH levels.
If you want, you can rebuy 1/3 of the coins you sold, but this is not acceptable. So you become a hardcore permabear and join a bear club with Proudhon and roach. Every day you remind the forum of how bitcoin is a ponzi scam and is going to die at any minute.
