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Topic: Here's why BTCST won't last for one year - page 2. (Read 3095 times)

legendary
Activity: 1554
Merit: 1222
brb keeping up with the Kardashians
August 10, 2012, 11:58:09 AM
#18
7% interest a week equals about 3300% a year.

Currently, there seems to be about 400K BTC invested in BTCST 1.

In one year from now, this would be 400K x 34 = 13.6 million BTC 2.

In one year from now, there will be a total of approximately 11.2 million BTC in existence 3.

Does not compute.


Explanation of figures:

(1) The 400K is a rough estimation extrapolated from the 26K~28K BTC weekly interest, then again, that pretty much evens out vs the assumption that eventually 100% of all BTC in existence would be invested in BTCST.

(2) 1.07365/7 > 34

(3) 365*24*6*(50*4+25*½)
LOL 1 YEAR?!?  Something like that wouldn't last 3 MONTHS hahah
legendary
Activity: 1145
Merit: 1001
August 10, 2012, 10:58:47 AM
#17
It's obvious it won't carry on like it is now for another year.

As the amout of Bitcoin that Pirate controls becomes larger we would expect the price to rise. Eventually it would rise faster than Pirate can expand his business. He has said himself the only thing that could stop him would be a sharp rise in the Bitcoin price.

But that does not mean it must end in a catastrope or a default.

Pirate could simply pay a lower yield or stop accepting new deposits and alway pay out the interests.
legendary
Activity: 1274
Merit: 1004
August 10, 2012, 10:34:23 AM
#16
Its  pretty incredible that people are STILL investing when the numbers indicate that in 18 months or so Pirate
will have paid out all the bitcoins in existence ............including the ones that havent even been mined yet  Grin

Assuming that everyone reinvests all the interest and don't use it for other purposes.
vip
Activity: 574
Merit: 500
Don't send me a pm unless you gpg encrypt it.
August 10, 2012, 10:10:47 AM
#15
Its  pretty incredible that people are STILL investing when the numbers indicate that in 18 months or so Pirate
will have paid out all the bitcoins in existence ............including the ones that havent even been mined yet  Grin
Are you aware that interest rates are flexible?

Are you aware hes also throwing out ADDITIONAL % bonus "incentives"  for people who keep their balance at a high level  and dont withdraw it ?

Yeah, he's offering bonuses for people that don't deposit more money.. totally ponzi!  Roll Eyes
legendary
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1000
Si vis pacem, para bellum
August 10, 2012, 10:08:09 AM
#14
Its  pretty incredible that people are STILL investing when the numbers indicate that in 18 months or so Pirate
will have paid out all the bitcoins in existence ............including the ones that havent even been mined yet  Grin
Are you aware that interest rates are flexible?

Are you aware hes also throwing out ADDITIONAL % bonus "incentives"  for people who keep their balance at a high level  and dont withdraw it ?
rjk
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
1ngldh
August 10, 2012, 09:54:32 AM
#13
Basically - by 2050, the interest rate on your mortgage will be -30.5% APY.
Woot
donator
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1015
August 10, 2012, 09:43:29 AM
#12
SGI posted a quarterly %RoE of -61.72%. In less than a century, they will have consumed all of the financial world with losses! It'll be even BIGGER than the persistently-looming derivatives nightmare!

Over the past decade, the prime rate has decreased at a relative rate of around 10% per year, so pretty soon, we're going to start seeing negative interest rates for the common man, followed by a devastating deflationary spiral to collapse. Basically - by 2050, the interest rate on your mortgage will be -30.5% APY.
legendary
Activity: 1792
Merit: 1000
August 10, 2012, 09:25:06 AM
#11
Its  pretty incredible that people are STILL investing when the numbers indicate that in 18 months or so Pirate
will have paid out all the bitcoins in existence ............including the ones that havent even been mined yet  Grin
Are you aware that interest rates are flexible?
legendary
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1000
Si vis pacem, para bellum
August 10, 2012, 09:21:52 AM
#10
Its  pretty incredible that people are STILL investing when the numbers indicate that in 18 months or so Pirate
will have paid out all the bitcoins in existence ............including the ones that havent even been mined yet  Grin
hero member
Activity: 938
Merit: 1002
August 10, 2012, 09:08:17 AM
#9
I'm seriously hoping the sarcasm generator on kluge's machine is malfunctioning.

I think it's functioning just fine. Smiley

In one year from now, there will be a total of approximately 11.2 million BTC in existence 3.

Does not compute.

Any ordinary investor already knows that before investing. Even if some small number of them might have missed it, this "maths education" has been given so many times in so many related and unrelated threads that I want to rip my eyes out. No offense, I wish everyone shared your humble style.
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
August 10, 2012, 08:40:38 AM
#8
I'm seriously hoping the sarcasm generator on kluge's machine is malfunctioning. The comment was that he's gonna put 15-20% back into pirate after vegas happened.
donator
Activity: 1616
Merit: 1003
August 10, 2012, 08:31:07 AM
#7
Im confused kludge.

Arent you invested with pirate ?
I was a bit confused too - I'm sure he's expressing the view of the sceptics, though it could have been clearer Grin
"I'm thinking this scheme only has -1 or 1 week left"

I guess the sarcasm was buried in 2 characters?
legendary
Activity: 1792
Merit: 1000
August 10, 2012, 07:34:33 AM
#6
Im confused kludge.

Arent you invested with pirate ?
I was a bit confused too - I'm sure he's expressing the view of the sceptics, though it could have been clearer Grin
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1001
August 10, 2012, 07:29:58 AM
#5
Just to be clear: I'm NOT accusing pirate of running a scam or anything. So far he's done a great job on earning people lots of money. Kudos!

I just wanna emphasize that 7%/wk is not just extremely unlikely, it's simply NOT POSSIBLE to go on much longer.

Now, I hate to see lotsa people losing tons of money. Even if it's just the idiot know-nothings at the bottom. Perhaps they need to learn their lesson the hard way, sure, but 400K going BOOM may hurt the overall trust in Bitcoin. That would suck. Even though it makes no sense at all, a bunch of greedy fucktards trusting one anonymous guy obviously has nothing to do with the trustworthiness of Bitcoin itself. But that's how shit works, the overall trust in Bitcoin will be damaged.

People, please get your heads out of the sand. By all means, keep putting your savings in BTCST or any of the pass through constructions, trusts, bonds, whatever. Enjoy the ride (and the profits) but please keep in mind that it could be over any time. So be prepared, and don't whine or blame anyone but yourself when it happens.

Now, in the mean time I'm off buying some more pirate bonds, since this is just spare money that I can afford to take a risk with.
member
Activity: 106
Merit: 12
August 10, 2012, 07:25:43 AM
#4
Im confused kludge.

Arent you invested with pirate ?
donator
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1015
August 10, 2012, 06:50:39 AM
#3
Within three months, I bet the screamers of "PONZI!" will claim their education of the masses, that 7%/wk is unsustainable, is what led Pirate to lower rates.

Clearly, people are on to Pirate's scam, and so he's going to lower rates to build confidence... but then it's going to go BOOM, and all the idiots who invested in his scheme will have nothing, and I'll laugh. I'm thinking this scheme only has -1 or 1 week left, anyway. All the scammers in collusion probably left, so there're just the idiot know-nothings at the bottom left, waiting to have their savings ripped away from them.
legendary
Activity: 1792
Merit: 1000
August 10, 2012, 06:38:29 AM
#2
Edit: Here's why BTCST won't last for one year at 7%.
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1001
August 10, 2012, 06:35:27 AM
#1
7% interest a week equals about 3300% a year.

Currently, there seems to be about 400K BTC invested in BTCST 1.

In one year from now, this would be 400K x 34 = 13.6 million BTC 2.

In one year from now, there will be a total of approximately 11.2 million BTC in existence 3.

Does not compute.


Explanation of figures:

(1) The 400K is a rough estimation extrapolated from the 26K~28K BTC weekly interest, then again, that pretty much evens out vs the assumption that eventually 100% of all BTC in existence would be invested in BTCST.

(2) 1.07365/7 > 34

(3) 365*24*6*(50*4+25*½)
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