Here's why BTCST won't last for one year - page 2.

Tomatocage

legendary

Activity: 1554

Merit: 1222

brb keeping up with the Kardashians

Quote from: Kazimir on August 10, 2012, 05:35:27 AM

7% interest a week equals about 3300% a year.

Currently, there seems to be about 400K BTC invested in BTCST ¹.

In one year from now, this would be 400K x 34 = 13.6 million BTC ².

In one year from now, there will be a total of approximately 11.2 million BTC in existence ³.

Does not compute.

Explanation of figures:

(1) The 400K is a rough estimation extrapolated from the 26K~28K BTC weekly interest, then again, that pretty much evens out vs the assumption that eventually 100% of all BTC in existence would be invested in BTCST.

(2) 1.07^365/7 > 34

(3) 365*24*6*(50*4+25*½)

LOL 1 YEAR?!? Something like that wouldn't last 3 MONTHS hahah

Mageant

legendary

Activity: 1145

Merit: 1001

It's obvious it won't carry on like it is now for another year.

As the amout of Bitcoin that Pirate controls becomes larger we would expect the price to rise. Eventually it would rise faster than Pirate can expand his business. He has said himself the only thing that could stop him would be a sharp rise in the Bitcoin price.

But that does not mean it must end in a catastrope or a default.

Pirate could simply pay a lower yield or stop accepting new deposits and alway pay out the interests.

MrTeal

legendary

Activity: 1274

Merit: 1004

Quote from: CoinCidental on August 10, 2012, 08:21:52 AM

Its pretty incredible that people are STILL investing when the numbers indicate that in 18 months or so Pirate
will have paid out all the bitcoins in existence ............including the ones that havent even been mined yet Grin

Assuming that everyone reinvests all the interest and don't use it for other purposes.

imsaguy

vip

Activity: 574

Merit: 500

Don't send me a pm unless you gpg encrypt it.

Quote from: CoinCidental on August 10, 2012, 09:08:09 AM

Quote from: Scott J on August 10, 2012, 08:25:06 AM

Quote from: CoinCidental on August 10, 2012, 08:21:52 AM

Its pretty incredible that people are STILL investing when the numbers indicate that in 18 months or so Pirate
will have paid out all the bitcoins in existence ............including the ones that havent even been mined yet Grin

Are you aware that interest rates are flexible?

Are you aware hes also throwing out ADDITIONAL % bonus "incentives" for people who keep their balance at a high level and dont withdraw it ?

Yeah, he's offering bonuses for people that don't deposit more money.. totally ponzi! Roll Eyes

CoinCidental

legendary

Activity: 1316

Merit: 1000

Si vis pacem, para bellum

Quote from: Scott J on August 10, 2012, 08:25:06 AM

Quote from: CoinCidental on August 10, 2012, 08:21:52 AM

Its pretty incredible that people are STILL investing when the numbers indicate that in 18 months or so Pirate
will have paid out all the bitcoins in existence ............including the ones that havent even been mined yet Grin

Are you aware that interest rates are flexible?

Are you aware hes also throwing out ADDITIONAL % bonus "incentives" for people who keep their balance at a high level and dont withdraw it ?

rjk

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

1ngldh

Quote from: Kluge on August 10, 2012, 08:43:29 AM

Basically - by 2050, the interest rate on your mortgage will be -30.5% APY.

Woot

Kluge

donator

Activity: 1218

Merit: 1015

SGI posted a quarterly %RoE of -61.72%. In less than a century, they will have consumed all of the financial world with losses! It'll be even BIGGER than the persistently-looming derivatives nightmare!

Over the past decade, the prime rate has decreased at a relative rate of around 10% per year, so pretty soon, we're going to start seeing negative interest rates for the common man, followed by a devastating deflationary spiral to collapse. Basically - by 2050, the interest rate on your mortgage will be -30.5% APY.

Scott J

legendary

Activity: 1792

Merit: 1000

Quote from: CoinCidental on August 10, 2012, 08:21:52 AM

Its pretty incredible that people are STILL investing when the numbers indicate that in 18 months or so Pirate
will have paid out all the bitcoins in existence ............including the ones that havent even been mined yet Grin

Are you aware that interest rates are flexible?

CoinCidental

legendary

Activity: 1316

Merit: 1000

Si vis pacem, para bellum

Its pretty incredible that people are STILL investing when the numbers indicate that in 18 months or so Pirate
will have paid out all the bitcoins in existence ............including the ones that havent even been mined yet Grin

memvola

hero member

Activity: 938

Merit: 1002

Quote from: guruvan on August 10, 2012, 07:40:38 AM

I'm seriously hoping the sarcasm generator on kluge's machine is malfunctioning.

I think it's functioning just fine.

Quote from: Kazimir on August 10, 2012, 05:35:27 AM

In one year from now, there will be a total of approximately 11.2 million BTC in existence ³.

Does not compute.

Any ordinary investor already knows that before investing. Even if some small number of them might have missed it, this "maths education" has been given so many times in so many related and unrelated threads that I want to rip my eyes out. No offense, I wish everyone shared your humble style.

guruvan

hero member

Activity: 532

Merit: 500

I'm seriously hoping the sarcasm generator on kluge's machine is malfunctioning. The comment was that he's gonna put 15-20% back into pirate after vegas happened.

Soros Shorts

donator

Activity: 1617

Merit: 1012

Quote from: Scott J on August 10, 2012, 06:34:33 AM

Quote from: Willowbitcoin on August 10, 2012, 06:25:43 AM

Im confused kludge.

Arent you invested with pirate ?

I was a bit confused too - I'm sure he's expressing the view of the sceptics, though it could have been clearer Grin

"I'm thinking this scheme only has -1 or 1 week left"

I guess the sarcasm was buried in 2 characters?

Scott J

legendary

Activity: 1792

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Willowbitcoin on August 10, 2012, 06:25:43 AM

Im confused kludge.

Arent you invested with pirate ?

I was a bit confused too - I'm sure he's expressing the view of the sceptics, though it could have been clearer Grin

Kazimir

legendary

Activity: 1176

Merit: 1011

Just to be clear: I'm NOT accusing pirate of running a scam or anything. So far he's done a great job on earning people lots of money. Kudos!

I just wanna emphasize that 7%/wk is not just extremely unlikely, it's simply NOT POSSIBLE to go on much longer.

Now, I hate to see lotsa people losing tons of money. Even if it's just the idiot know-nothings at the bottom. Perhaps they need to learn their lesson the hard way, sure, but 400K going BOOM may hurt the overall trust in Bitcoin. That would suck. Even though it makes no sense at all, a bunch of greedy fucktards trusting one anonymous guy obviously has nothing to do with the trustworthiness of Bitcoin itself. But that's how shit works, the overall trust in Bitcoin will be damaged.

People, please get your heads out of the sand. By all means, keep putting your savings in BTCST or any of the pass through constructions, trusts, bonds, whatever. Enjoy the ride (and the profits) but please keep in mind that it could be over any time. So be prepared, and don't whine or blame anyone but yourself when it happens.

Now, in the mean time I'm off buying some more pirate bonds, since this is just spare money that I can afford to take a risk with.

Willowbitcoin

member

Activity: 114

Merit: 12

Im confused kludge.

Arent you invested with pirate ?

Kluge

donator

Activity: 1218

Merit: 1015

Within three months, I bet the screamers of "PONZI!" will claim their education of the masses, that 7%/wk is unsustainable, is what led Pirate to lower rates.

Clearly, people are on to Pirate's scam, and so he's going to lower rates to build confidence... but then it's going to go BOOM, and all the idiots who invested in his scheme will have nothing, and I'll laugh. I'm thinking this scheme only has -1 or 1 week left, anyway. All the scammers in collusion probably left, so there're just the idiot know-nothings at the bottom left, waiting to have their savings ripped away from them.

Scott J

legendary

Activity: 1792

Merit: 1000

Edit: Here's why BTCST won't last for one year at 7%.

Kazimir

legendary

Activity: 1176

Merit: 1011

7% interest a week equals about 3300% a year.

Currently, there seems to be about 400K BTC invested in BTCST ¹.

In one year from now, this would be 400K x 34 = 13.6 million BTC ².

In one year from now, there will be a total of approximately 11.2 million BTC in existence ³.

Does not compute.

Explanation of figures:

(1) The 400K is a rough estimation extrapolated from the 26K~28K BTC weekly interest, then again, that pretty much evens out vs the assumption that eventually 100% of all BTC in existence would be invested in BTCST.

(2) 1.07^365/7 > 34

(3) 365*24*6*(50*4+25*½)

Topic: Here's why BTCST won't last for one year - page 2. (Read 3134 times)