Topic: Hmmm....No way! - page 2. (Read 423 times)
Don’t underestimate the power of fractals. While different market factors have made things not as clear cut as they’ve been in the past, I think the future will still rhyme with history. You can’t deny the block reward’s effect on the exchange rate over time and so far things are performing about as expected if you are a believer of the fractal pattern. I would feel better buying here than at $50K. Unless the crypto experiment is over, now is a time to be a buyer and not a seller.
Every time there is a high pile of ice it will melt. We small traders are just waiting for the time. There is nothing wrong on the chart. Every increase must be started with a mature plan, and so is the decrease in price must be started with a well-thought-out plan. They are shareholders just waiting for the right moment, and the right issue to make a change.
So how we react to this first resistance/support is probably the best judge of how BTC will proceed. At first the Binance bailout meant a daily close above here which was bullish conclusion to weakness but it failed as the event developed. Hence now this is probably the most familiar price point to judge it from. In regards to previous years and the old peak thats a weekly bar discussion and 12781 is about where I think we have that preestablished range but whether we repeat or how varied we are is yet to be known.
I don't think that it's as simple as you portray it in a market with no liquidity, driven by fear and emotion and a very small amount of bitcoins traded. On most exchanges it was a drop of about 4k BTC that made us go all the way from 19k to 17k. 4k is nothing when you compare it to the total supply which means the circulating supply worldwide is less than 10% of the total supply.
People who had money frozen on FTX sold in panic but their money remained frozen - they gained nothing.
Possible scenarios?
Their money gets unfrozen and they move to another exchange and buy back. If only half of them buys we'll be above 19k in an instant because we went from 16 to 18 on money from other sources than the dying exchange so other people bought the panic. If the panic calms down and get back on the market the situation will return to what it was before the drama.
Levered longs got liquidated so most people are now either shorting or out of the market. A short squeeze to 20k is possible.
It looked like BTC was bottoming at 17k and recovering. This situation is not a normal macro trend but rather a black swan event. I wouldn't look for macro lower lows here. If we get lows these are going to be a result of further drama with exchanges.
This is not like the 200WMA or the S2F which can overshoot. This was correct to the exact week.
Look how bad the sentiment is right now. People are abandoning crypto and retail adoption will be completely dead. Why wouldn't this be the bottom?
I don't know how many of you were around in bottom of 2015 or bottom of late 2018, but nobody was getting into crypto then. And since nobody was getting in, it was the perfect time to get in.
Look how bad the sentiment is right now. People are abandoning crypto and retail adoption will be completely dead. Why wouldn't this be the bottom?
I don't know how many of you were around in bottom of 2015 or bottom of late 2018, but nobody was getting into crypto then. And since nobody was getting in, it was the perfect time to get in.
Doesnt have to repeat, its a case of observation and contrast. I do expect us to repeat this whole range from 20k possibly down to 10k as an extreme, simple reason being we lack volume in this area. Theres little resistance when we previously briefly passed through every price in the teens. As we move below 14k there are more prior BTC price points to slow us down but Im going to be surprised if we bounce right back up without any hesitation.
So how we react to this first resistance/support is probably the best judge of how BTC will proceed. At first the Binance bailout meant a daily close above here which was bullish conclusion to weakness but it failed as the event developed. Hence now this is probably the most familiar price point to judge it from. In regards to previous years and the old peak thats a weekly bar discussion and 12781 is about where I think we have that preestablished range but whether we repeat or how varied we are is yet to be known.
So how we react to this first resistance/support is probably the best judge of how BTC will proceed. At first the Binance bailout meant a daily close above here which was bullish conclusion to weakness but it failed as the event developed. Hence now this is probably the most familiar price point to judge it from. In regards to previous years and the old peak thats a weekly bar discussion and 12781 is about where I think we have that preestablished range but whether we repeat or how varied we are is yet to be known.
Just a quick reminder that patterns can break; a perfect example being the infamous Bitcoin stock-to-flow(S2F) model — whereas a lot of people were banking on the fact that the historical trend will continue.
..it didn't
..it didn't
Patterns mean nothing. S2F is a good example but not the only one.
Benjamin Cowen, one of the most popular and respected cryptocurrency market analysts, has admitted that his flagship market model “is dead.” He did so in the context of Bitcoin’s falling price, while also falsifying the hypothesis he has been arguing for since 2019.
https://beincrypto.com/benjamin-cowen-lengthening-cycles-are-dead-end-of-a-great-narrative/
I like charts that you can find on https://www.lookintobitcoin.com They can give you a perspective of where we currently are compared to other years.
Saw a video stating two times bottom reached the day after midterm elections. In 2014 and 2018.
I think it is just an interesting coincidence, nothing more. Unless CZ timed his tweet based on this. 
Lots had been speculating and anticipating that it was all part of the plan or simply in talks about being manipulation situation which i could not blame off for people to say so.When we do tend to look back into those past years which people cant really that able to ignore nor avoid not to see these kind of patterns.I do agree on some explaination above about
bubble and incidents which it could be attached up with some events on some point and some which had totally that random movement.
Patterns could be formed but it wont really be assuring that it would be happening again in the future.
I think it is just an interesting coincidence, nothing more. Unless CZ timed his tweet based on this.
Though the crashes look almost identical, the reasons behind both crashes are completely different.
In 2018 it seems that there was just a natural bubble and an RSI smashed up against 70%. I wasn't around when this happened, so I cannot give an exact explanation beyond this.
In 2022 we had a series of unfortunate events (TM) instead of a natural bubble. Yes, $69,420 Bitcoin price was a bubble, so was $60K earlier before Tesla with Elon Musk popped it, but everything else was a completely artificial crash - from $40K or $30somthingK, some shitcoiner managed to indirectly bring the entire market at its knees.
In 2018 it seems that there was just a natural bubble and an RSI smashed up against 70%. I wasn't around when this happened, so I cannot give an exact explanation beyond this.
In 2022 we had a series of unfortunate events (TM) instead of a natural bubble. Yes, $69,420 Bitcoin price was a bubble, so was $60K earlier before Tesla with Elon Musk popped it, but everything else was a completely artificial crash - from $40K or $30somthingK, some shitcoiner managed to indirectly bring the entire market at its knees.
Just a quick reminder that patterns can break; a perfect example being the infamous Bitcoin stock-to-flow(S2F) model — whereas a lot of people were banking on the fact that the historical trend will continue.
..it didn't
..it didn't
Discuss the events from the photos below.
It couldn't of been this easy? Could it?
It couldn't of been this easy? Could it?
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