Topic: HoboNickels - HBN - High Fast Stake - Version 2.0! More Secure, Less Intensive - page 192. (Read 478852 times)

The effect of 100% POS on the monthly inflation of Hobonickels

One of the reasons I like HBN is the fact that you can mint the coin without using mining rigs. Mining rigs consume a lot of energy, need a lot of attention, need to be bought and usually generate less coins every month where as minting hardly uses any energy and doesn't need much attention. Ok, you also need to invest but your investment generates more coins every month in stead of less.

But what about inflation? Granting 100% yearly interest on POS surely will sent the inflation through the roof, rendering your HBN-stash worthless over time. Or doesn't it?
Being almost a year into the HBN adventure I decided to do some math on the matter. To see what actually happens, what inflation is to be expected and how it's affected by the 100% POS rate.

First, I would like to know what inflation would be if there was no POS at all. Just the regular POW. Since the block chain tries to aim for a 30 second block interval, this isn't too hard to work out. 1 block every 30 seconds equals 2880 blocks a day. Since a POW block contains 5 HBN, the HBN money supply rises every day with 2880 * 5 = 14400 HBN. Let's put this together using excel:


Theoretical growth of supply without POS

                  block     supply   infl/mth
24-7-2013   0           0   
1-8-2013    22646     113230   
1-9-2013    111926   559630   394,2%
1-10-2013   198326   991630   77,2%
1-11-2013   287606   1438030   45,0%
1-12-2013   374006   1870030   30,0%
1-1-2014    463286   2316430   23,9%
1-2-2014    552566   2762830   19,3%
1-3-2014    633206   3166030   14,6%
1-4-2014    722486   3612430   14,1%
1-5-2014    808886   4044430   12,0%
1-6-2014    898166   4490830   11,0%
1-7-2014    984566   4922830   9,6%
 
So this is what we could expect without POS. 14400 HBN daily added to the supply. As you can see, the monthly inflation is decreasing. It makes sense when you think of it. For example in Oct. 2013 the supply goes in 31 days from 991630 to 1438030. An inflation (= increase of the supply) of 45%. A month later the same daily amount is added but since the supply is bigger than before, it's a smaller percentage. So in time the inflation will automatically decrease. Bear in mind: this is to be expected without POS!
 
Now it gets interesting. The theory is clear about inflation without POS but HBN has POS. a nice 100% of it. How did the supply evolve in reality? Did POS sent inflation through the roof? Let's see what happened. What's actually in the block chain. Check the above data to see the differences.


Observed growth of supply with POS
      
                  block     supply   infl/mth
24-7-2013    0           0   
1-8-2013    24075   120372   
1-9-2013    113060   541767   369,6%
1-10-2013   199014   960995   76,0%
1-11-2013   286219   1385908   43,8%
1-12-2013   372264   1849933   30,1%
1-1-2014    461136   2330766   23,9%
1-2-2014    550116   2778403   19,3%
1-3-2014    630790   3206341   14,7%
1-4-2014    719789   3671800   14,1%
1-5-2014    806508   4106540   12,0%
1-6-2014    898413   4629448   11,4%
1-7-2014    988559   5068546   10,0%


Indeed. What differences? In the first year of HBN, the 100% POS rate hasn't hardly changed the monthly inflation of HBN. On the first of July, the non-POS prediction of monthly inflation is 9,6%, the actual inflation with POS is only 0,4pp higher. That's hardly any effect at all! How is that possible?

I think the 30 second block time is key in understanding this. Whatever block is generated, the block chain will try to keep the block time at 30 sec, and thereby the amount of POS and POW blocks together as close as possible to 2880 a day.

So the possible difference in monthly inflation comes down to the difference in yield of POW and POS blocks. POW is fixed at 5 HBN. POS is not, so a high yield POS block (>5) raises inflation a bit but, and this is important, a low yield POS block (<5) lowers inflation as compared to POW only supply growth.

So if the mean POS yield is close to the fixed POW yield, POS adds no extra inflation. And this is the case with Hobonickels when considering the last year: 100% POS adds hardly any extra inflation. Funny isn't it? And the proposed max POS yield of 500 will drive it even further back.



Just let me know if you agree with my line of reasoning.

True. Wo got only 28 votes more right now:/

It was the other imperial coin IPC.  There were 2 imperial coins that were making ground on HBN with IPC winning out in the final minutes.  IMP is currently making ground and could easily take over the lead within the next few hours.  It should be another close race to the end.  Just under 2 days with HBN holding a 30 vote lead.

Yep I started off by asking so many questions, and if you look back over the HBN btctalk thread and HBN hosted forum you will see Tranz graciously answering my noobish questions. But it starts with curiosity, and then eventually you realize that Tranz can't do everything for you ha ha. So I started looking through the code, figuring out how the files were organized, what functions were where.  You don't have to be a coder to figure it out either, I know because I am not a coder by training, I just follow the code and then change a thing or two and see how it compiles.

A good place to start is main.cpp. Most of the important functions are on main.cpp, such as getproofofworkreward() getproofofstakereward() and even the mining functions, except for on Tranz' coins he has separated the mining functions into a new file called miner.cpp.

I would recommend getting a good text editor like notepad++ that has powerful search functions.  Doing this combined with reading a teach yourself c++ book, and having a brother that is in school for video game engineering has been enough to launch me in the right direction. But I am still learning so many new things everyday.

One other thing I would suggest is checking out the hobonickels hosted forum at cryptocointalk, you don't get lost in the mumbo jumbo that is in the btctalk threads https://cryptocointalk.com/forum/300-hobonickels-hbn/

This.

I can't code, and this is endlessly frustrating to me. I'm going to learn, because I have many ideas for cryptos that I am certain can be done. I don't often put them out, because the correct answer is the one you just gave. Help. Write some code to do the thing you desire to happen. But I can't right now, so I keep my mouth shut. Somewhat.

There are a lot of people on here that DO have the skills. Put your skills to use if you can. I'm a writer and a manager, not a programmer. I do what I can, and m trying to fix the lack.

I frequently ask you for lines of code, and try to figure them out. I'm learning from this, and I will eventually be able to modify other's code. But I need a much more basic understanding of programming, particularly in C++. I'm considering going back to school for that very purpose. At my age, that's something of a daunting endeavour, but not beyond reality

Often times these types of things are easier said than done. We all have to take a step back and realize Tranz's priorities, from what I understand they are:

1 - to ensure the wallets and network are safe from attack and abuse and that value can be stored without risk of losing the coins
2 - fix any bugs or problems with the existing wallet that causes users to be confused or client to crash
3 - charity work (may be higher on the list, this is just a guess)
4 - helping others learn
5 - GUI
6 - marketing

With suggestions like "create a trading platform that is inside the wallet", it might be easiest to help Tranz to do this by building the framework and submitting a pull request when it is ready. I am sure Tranz is a real person with a family and full time job and that HBN is an almost full time hobby.  So maybe the best thing would be to create some code for Tranz to look at?

Hi tranz, thanks for your ongoing input into Nickels, we are glad that Nickels has a dev like you.
Going forward we need to think of Nickels as an early competitor like the way websites were in the 90's when the internet was born.
Who won and who lost were the guys that came up with the best ideas to get traffic and today the end result is GOOGLE.

As we can see that all the other alts are trying different ideas to capture the crowd. Anybody here or outside this forum is helping if they are positively promoting Nickels. That for starters is what we need. Positive promotion.

We need to look at what features that a wallet needs to have to make it easy to intergrate with websites.

The wallet could have a chat/social platform were users can tip

I have seen cloakcoin with its own trading platform in the wallet

The key to any coins success right now is the ability to create a killer wallet and market the coin like storm.

I think I have said this somewhere. Marketing can make or break.

Hobo is not added but IMP also not?So which coin was?

Well they paid 400 for it, so I hope they enjoy it. :-)

IMP just took the lead with 3 mins left.  No last minute drive for HBN in this game.

Throw in a few votes right quick at https://www.allcoin.com/vote . IMP trying a last minute surge.

Agree mate:)

The trick is not to pump it. You just need to give people a reason to invest and make the coin known. At 1.2 btc daily volume, no wonder the coin is so cheap, increase the volume in a healthy way and you'll inevitably get a higher price.

Since tokyoghetto's thread was closed and Tranz started working on CAPS, HBN isn't getting as much attention, nor is it as unique as it once was. HBN is personally my favourite coin, plus I like the 2%.

Agreed.

Although if you were wanting to buy a lot quickly. I think the later can fill a big order quickly and help keep the price inflated for a while. Perhaps bringing in other investors or talent, which also yields further increases.

Or not.. 

I would recommend not trying to manipulate the market because if it goes wrong you can lose big with that type of money. Just buy some if you need it and maybe have some decent buy orders that will catch dumpers.

What would a good number for a pump be. 2 BTC to buy out the board up to 10k Satoshi or like 10 BTC to just constantly eat up whatever gets on the order as a reasonable price over time slowly buying upwards?

I`m constantly buying, but don`t have much BTC now (

And who is stopping you?

hobo losing price... we need a pump )

Just wanted to share, if you use the Mac client and seem to have issues with high orphan rate, please read this post, it maybe of help to you.

https://cryptocointalk.com/topic/13253-07-on-the-stake-conformations/?p=111836