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Topic: HODL: You have to wait 30 years for your money (Read 543 times)

hero member
Activity: 1330
Merit: 569
December 02, 2017, 06:51:21 AM
#26
For all of those you like to say HODL.

If you wait long enough it will bounce back.

As an example look at the Dow Jones stock index.

If you bought in 1929 just before the downturn you had to HODL for 30 years until the price was back where you bought it

If you bought in 1966 just before the downturn you also had to HODL for 30 years until the price was back where you bought it

Don't believe it? see for yourself: http://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart

Are you willing to HODL when the price goes down and risk having to wait 30 years to get back up?

The rules of the games have changed to what its traditionally obtainable in the finance  world. The reference you made is not applicable to bitcoin or digital currency rather to stocks whose price increase is greatly regulated. The directors of the companies involved would have taken care of their families to generations before thinking of doing activities that could increase the market value of their shares and the cumulative of this to have effect will take the 30years.

But in the case of bitcoin, no one is given that authority so the forces of demand and supply are allowed to play their role to the fullest with individuals being the determinants of the direction with all this, I don't think it's informed to compared the two.
sr. member
Activity: 504
Merit: 251
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I don't quite understand why you would have to wait 30 years just now what you put in is relatively safe bitcoin hasn't completely plummeted. If you mean wait 30 years to see returns that very early adopters have then more than likely yes.
full member
Activity: 224
Merit: 101
i was missing the OP and this kind of topics but let's try to answer properly (and take the bait):
Why you have to wait for 30 years for your money?
What if i got couple of BTC when it was, for example, 5k and sell it now at around 11k? what's your point?
waiting for 30 years might get you a billionaire or with a 0 value wallet, this bait was very low mate.
newbie
Activity: 11
Merit: 0
For all of those you like to say HODL.

If you wait long enough it will bounce back.

As an example look at the Dow Jones stock index.

If you bought in 1929 just before the downturn you had to HODL for 30 years until the price was back where you bought it

If you bought in 1966 just before the downturn you also had to HODL for 30 years until the price was back where you bought it

Don't believe it? see for yourself: http://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart

Are you willing to HODL when the price goes down and risk having to wait 30 years to get back up?


For me investing in Bitcoin is a gamble for almost everyone because it is not a stable way to invest money, because while it is not controlled by governments, it is simply being controlled by someone who's in charge and this is while Bitcoin is a risky way to invest but it's on you if you'll take the risk for the better or worse than you can imagine.
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 251
Why wait 30 years? Invest now in future projects and get profit within 3-5 years and you have enough for a lifetime)
newbie
Activity: 132
Merit: 0
this is hard to estimate, you can not just outperform the past charts of an entirely different industry, apply it to Bitcoin and make some sort of conclusion. It's not even true to take a graph of Bitcoin's past and forecast it into the future by saying that Bitcoin will be worth millions over the years, because it will be less likely that Bitcoin will fall, either whole or just experience low levels.
legendary
Activity: 2912
Merit: 2066
The cryptocurrency market is speculative. Pretty much everyone who dabbles in it is aware that it could boom or crash without warning. People like advocating HODLing, but I'm sure they still acknowledge that there is risk involved.

That being said, there have been plenty of price drops in the past, and I've usually never had to wait more than a month for the price to bounce back. If you're that worried, maybe you shouldn't be involved in cryptocurrencies. Time to sell, bud. If you even have any. Smiley

The most important takeaway here.

If you invest in something -- be it stocks, commodities or cryptocurrencies -- only use an amount that you are comfortable with having invested for a prolonged timeframe. With everything else just stay in cash. Simple as that.
hero member
Activity: 1834
Merit: 759
The cryptocurrency market is speculative. Pretty much everyone who dabbles in it is aware that it could boom or crash without warning. People like advocating HODLing, but I'm sure they still acknowledge that there is risk involved.

That being said, there have been plenty of price drops in the past, and I've usually never had to wait more than a month for the price to bounce back. If you're that worried, maybe you shouldn't be involved in cryptocurrencies. Time to sell, bud. If you even have any. Smiley
legendary
Activity: 2422
Merit: 1451
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
I don't think that this would be easy for everyone. Accidents happen and people need emergency funds sometimes. It's not bad for Bitcoin is someone spends a bit more every now and then. Funds moving within the economy is a good thing so long as there is demand to absorb selling pressure.
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
For all of those you like to say HODL.

If you wait long enough it will bounce back.

As an example look at the Dow Jones stock index.

If you bought in 1929 just before the downturn you had to HODL for 30 years until the price was back where you bought it

If you bought in 1966 just before the downturn you also had to HODL for 30 years until the price was back where you bought it

Don't believe it? see for yourself: http://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart

Are you willing to HODL when the price goes down and risk having to wait 30 years to get back up?


Very bad analogy!

You compared very different industries with different times. "Hodling" for Bitcoiners can mean one or two years, it simply mean to not day trade or make too much activity on exchanges.
member
Activity: 238
Merit: 40
First Payment Gateway using GoldBacked cryptocurre
People who hodling have different concept of money from those holding stock, hodler are not counting how many dollar will be in their pocket they wait for the world where BTC is currency/representation of money that can be use to purchase anything, in the meantime they use small amount of BTC to buy their daily need, if you worried about not getting back your investment in dollar term from BTC you buy then you are not hodler, just another regular BTC investor/speculator
full member
Activity: 588
Merit: 103
As long as you have trust bitcoin it can be a good long term coin and wait a couple of year is worth it.
legendary
Activity: 2912
Merit: 2066
[...]

If you bought in 1929 just before the downturn you had to HODL for 30 years until the price was back where you bought it

If you bought in 1966 just before the downturn you also had to HODL for 30 years until the price was back where you bought it

Don't believe it? see for yourself: http://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart

[...]

You're reading the chart wrong.

1) You used inflation adjusted prices which utterly inflates the recovery time and actually shows how much fiat -- not stocks -- lost in value during your given timeframes. Ignoring inflation you get a recovery times from 1929 - 1954 and 1965 - 1972. Not nearly as dramatic as you make it seem. And the first timeframe included a world war.

2) You're ignoring dividends. Crypto doesn't have them, but you can't assess stock prices without looking at dividends as well. Accounting for dividends aforementioned recovery times shorten even more.

gg

My god you don't understand inflation do you?

Taking inflation into account makes the payback time much longer.

Buying at - for example - 1000$ in 1929 and then getting 1000$ back in 1959 is still a de-facto loss due to inflation as the same 1000$ is worth less in 1959

and much much worse for the period 1966-1996 which includes the period in the 1970s of very high inflation


The loss of purchasing power caused by inflation would have been significantly higher if you weren't invested in stocks -- or  possibly precious metals or bonds -- during that time.

Assuming you are arguing that it's safer to keep your assets in cash the timeframe starting from 1965 goes against your argument. Because all that timeframe shows is the importance of being invested during a time of questionable monetary policies -- ie. most of the time.
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 109
[...]

If you bought in 1929 just before the downturn you had to HODL for 30 years until the price was back where you bought it

If you bought in 1966 just before the downturn you also had to HODL for 30 years until the price was back where you bought it

Don't believe it? see for yourself: http://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart

[...]

You're reading the chart wrong.

1) You used inflation adjusted prices which utterly inflates the recovery time and actually shows how much fiat -- not stocks -- lost in value during your given timeframes. Ignoring inflation you get a recovery times from 1929 - 1954 and 1965 - 1972. Not nearly as dramatic as you make it seem. And the first timeframe included a world war.

2) You're ignoring dividends. Crypto doesn't have them, but you can't assess stock prices without looking at dividends as well. Accounting for dividends aforementioned recovery times shorten even more.

gg

My god you don't understand inflation do you?

Taking inflation into account makes the payback time much longer.

Buying at - for example - 1000$ in 1929 and then getting 1000$ back in 1959 is still a de-facto loss due to inflation as the same 1000$ is worth less in 1959

and much much worse for the period 1966-1996 which includes the period in the 1970s of very high inflation

legendary
Activity: 2912
Merit: 2066
[...]

If you bought in 1929 just before the downturn you had to HODL for 30 years until the price was back where you bought it

If you bought in 1966 just before the downturn you also had to HODL for 30 years until the price was back where you bought it

Don't believe it? see for yourself: http://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart

[...]

You're reading the chart wrong.

1) You used inflation adjusted prices which utterly inflates the recovery time and actually shows how much fiat -- not stocks -- lost in value during your given timeframes. Ignoring inflation you get a recovery times from 1929 - 1954 and 1965 - 1972. Not nearly as dramatic as you make it seem. And the first timeframe included a world war.

2) You're ignoring dividends. Crypto doesn't have them, but you can't assess stock prices without looking at dividends as well. Accounting for dividends aforementioned recovery times shorten even more.

gg
sr. member
Activity: 546
Merit: 255
The way your saying this means that even 30 years is less. No Matter what happens you'll regret one day thinking that you should have waited for some more time to spend btc when the prices will be much higher. That's not how it goes. BTC prices will keep on increasing and you can't just sit and calculate how much you would have saved if you would have used it few months later and stuff.
full member
Activity: 350
Merit: 100
Join FlipNpik Telegram : t.me/flipnpikico
Bitcoin or crypto currency dont controlled by any bank or government so in that case ghis rule will not apply.
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
Bitcoin is not controlled by the bankers, so those rules don't apply in my opinion.
Yes I completely agree even the old laws or old system nothing works with crypto currency or bitcoin now everything changed we can’t even compare the old strategy wher no technology was exists now internet accessible everywhere . Don’t compare old laws with new revolution
legendary
Activity: 1792
Merit: 1283
What's the point of this post? It doesn't take a genius to see that crypto-markets are vastly different to stock indexes.
It clearly wouldn't take as much time to make similar trades with cryptocurrency as it would while trading traditional assets, crypto markets don't even compare to traditional assets in terms of volatility.

Your theory is easily debunked when doing a quick analysis of the Bitcoin historical price charts, even if you had bought just before the worst of Bitcoin price crashes (Mt. Gox fiasco), it would only have taken 4 years to get in profit again.
sr. member
Activity: 700
Merit: 300
Bitcoin is not controlled by the bankers, so those rules don't apply in my opinion.

Make sense. The bitcoin is art work of decentraslied blockchain where nothing is controlled by any one person or institution. Here everyone is contributing to the value of bitcoin, even your $100 can move the market by some tiny percentage and thats what defines the real value for it. So I don't think my investment will turn down and I will have to wait for the bitcoin to rise agin for next 30 years.

I mean the average time for the bitcoin to recover from the downturn is about two to three week, lolz so that makes sense why bitcoin is safer place to invest your money no matter what how many pas theories are proven here.
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