hodlmybtc speculation thread | Bitcointalksearch.org

hodlmybtc

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Quote from: hodlmybtc on August 18, 2015, 08:54:11 PM

Long, small stop loss at ~233

Closed at breakeven, was moving to a new home today, just went short when Finex broke 230 will close a little above 220.

If 220 doesn't hold we might see some margin call cascade action again, if it happens just open a decent sized short and make some good BTC, remember to close the short before it shoots up again!

Also it's important to watch if Bitfinex prices diverge from other exchanges again or not as this will ofcourse limits the price fall on futures.

If you're on Bitfinex you can make a big profit if this happens but you can also get owned by the lag/system/bugs whatever, I read a lot of people had bids yesterday which didn't get filled and they were quite a bit above the low of 162 on Finex, so watch out.

GL

hodlmybtc

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Long, small stop loss at ~233

hodlmybtc

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Quote from: kingscrown on August 18, 2015, 07:21:47 PM

first flashcrash i didnt make too big money at..

i had not much USD on bitfinex ;(

Same here, trade only on quaterly futures, made a big profit first short, ok profit second short, got rekt 3rd one because futures premium was behaving pretty weird.

All in all I'm up a tiny bit, will hold off trading this mad beast for a while until things cool down.

kingscrown

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http://fuk.io - check it out!

first flashcrash i didnt make too big money at..

i had not much USD on bitfinex ;(

hodlmybtc

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hodlmybtc

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Quite a bit of volatility today, made a decent profit on BTC short, closed it a bit too early, then made a small profit on a long, now in short again.

I didn't enter the long at my target I posted earlier because there was just too much downward pressure.

Now selling off starting again...

Not going long on BTC unless we form a clear bottom, short the hell out of it if we break 240.

ETH I had 1 good short and 1 bad, I'll hold off trading ETH for a while.

Quote from: kingscrown on August 17, 2015, 10:06:10 PM

nice thread Wink

not so easy to predict

Thanks, I try my best, although I'm wrong quite often.

Quote from: gotmilk_ on August 18, 2015, 04:03:33 AM

I'm long from 259.2$... I have a stop loss lower but I think this won't go much lower.

Hope your stop helped you!

gotmilk_

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I'm long from 259.2$... I have a stop loss lower but I think this won't go much lower.

kingscrown

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http://fuk.io - check it out!

nice thread Wink

not so easy to predict

hodlmybtc

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Closed long and went short when Huobi wall broke, 1k bid on Finex though so I'll monitor it closely.

Also closed ETH short, will reshort a little under 500k as there might be a short squeeze incoming.

hodlmybtc

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Quote from: gotmilk_ on August 17, 2015, 04:48:34 PM

Despite those buy wall on Huobi someone is setting some ask walls on Stamp and Finex...

It seems it's going down, 1k left, will close my long when it's below 500 coins.

gotmilk_

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Despite those buy wall on Huobi someone is setting some ask walls on Stamp and Finex...

hodlmybtc

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Didn't see the buywall on Huobi, apparantly it's there for a couple hours already and isn't fake. I think it was 3000 coins but I don't know if that's the exact amount.

Small long here, will close when that wall is gone.

hodlmybtc

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Was away for a couple days, did only a few trades:

BTC 261 long, closed when finex dump happened and went short on quaterlies while they were still pretty high, closed short when everything seemed over.
ETH short since 750k, went in and out of shorts until now, it seems it will go further but for now I only have a somewhat small short since 600k.
XMR long between 225k and 230k, sold some in the spikes at 250k and 260k, have buy orders again between 220k and 225k because dumpers will just market dump everytime, the price is still at the top of the rising channel/a little above it, if ETH dumps lower I expect more money to flow in XMR, the spikes to 250k and 260k was when ETH dumped hard.

I'm going long now on BTC between 255 and 252, stop loss 249, bullish divergence forming on the daily, ask side is very thin and the 10k sell was a good sign of capitulation but there might be a few more dumps.

We're at the 61.8% fib from 219 to 316, the lowest I can see BTC go that's still bullish is 240, if it goes below probably short the hell out of it.

ETH bounced on the 61.8% fib and is going down again now, I suspect it will keep going down because presale holders can still get 10x BTC profit from it, if it doesn't go lower I'll close my short. I will start buying some if all the presale holders that want to sell have sold, but this can take a couple weeks as a lot of people still don't know how get their coins to exchanges. Current ETH support 400k, lower trendline ~350K, if that breaks we might see some panic from presale holders.

Daily BTC, buying blue box:

Daily XMR (ignore the big candle down, it's a bug):

Daily ETH:

hodlmybtc

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So China's currency dropped 1.9%.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-10/china-devalues-yuan-fix-most-record-plunges-28-month-lows-against-dollar

I'm going long on futures because the index is pretty heavily influenced by the Chinese exchanges and it seems this hasn't influenced the difference between BTC/CNY and BTC/USD by that much yet.

It's probable that BTC/CNY will still rise quite a bit because of this and maybe this causes other BTC pairs to rise too, causing a positive feedback loop.

I could be wrong with everything so I have a small stop loss.

hodlmybtc

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Fell asleep while long, had stop loss set so wasn't a big deal. Closed around 267, small profit because the quarterly premium is still a little over $2 over the index, would've thought it would be higher by now. Anyways now doing a small short, hidden bearish divergences (red arrows) on multiple indicators, will close again at the first sign of strength.

1H chart which I forgot to post yesterday, went long when Finex held and when I saw the bullish divs:

Quote from: snowdropfore on August 09, 2015, 06:51:25 AM

Quote from: hodlmybtc on August 08, 2015, 08:33:29 PM

Quote from: snowdropfore on August 08, 2015, 06:59:33 PM

Why so many peoples say XMR is better ?

I'm in XMR since almost the beginning, you should do your own research before buying into anything, do the same with XMR.

And ETH was way overpiced at the start of trading, IMO it's still overpriced.

ok, thank you ! i think XMR is the only altcoin that chinese do not play ,this is a good sign.

Probably not for long, from what I've seen/read there are more and more Chinese people interested in XMR, also currently there are people translating pages to Chinese and helping Chinese people setting up wallets etc.

snowdropfore

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Quote from: hodlmybtc on August 08, 2015, 08:33:29 PM

Quote from: snowdropfore on August 08, 2015, 06:59:33 PM

Why so many peoples say XMR is better ?

I'm in XMR since almost the beginning, you should do your own research before buying into anything, do the same with XMR.

And ETH was way overpiced at the start of trading, IMO it's still overpriced.

ok, thank you ! i think XMR is the only altcoin that chinese do not play ,this is a good sign.

hodlmybtc

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Quote from: snowdropfore on August 08, 2015, 06:59:33 PM

Why so many peoples say XMR is better ?

I'm in XMR since almost the beginning, you should do your own research before buying into anything, do the same with XMR.

And ETH was way overpiced at the start of trading, IMO it's still overpriced.

OT:

Lost a bit on long, made back with short, qtr dropped below spot for a while lol.

Closed short around 261 and went long when Finex held up, bullish divergences on multiple indicators at the 1H chart, also some other smaller divergences on other timeframes.

Will close long at the first sign of weakness tho and go to sleep, will probably do some small trades tomorrow if there is action.

Good luck everyone!

snowdropfore

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Why so many peoples say XMR is better ?

hodlmybtc

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It seems the devs of Ethereum created themselves another 12 million coins...

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/ethereum-ico-premine-an-additional-premine-of-12m-eth-or-17-of-current-supply-1147063

It's still trading at way overinflated/overhyped prices, Poloniex is still trading at 0.02989 as we speak.

My advise: sell ETH (preferably at Polo because prices are higher) buy XMR

I thought of buying ETH near IPO prices but since the devs created another 12 million at a whim I might not even buy at IPO prices, let's see what happens.

hodlmybtc

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Small long 268, stop loss 265, target 274 (38.4% retrace). After that I will probably take a small break from trading BTC until the market paints a clearer picture where it wants to go.

15 min bull divs in heavily oversold territory on multiple timeframes.

If we break 265 then I'll open a short to around 255.

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