Holders should get out if bitcoin falls under $3200 says bear trader

exstasie

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Quote from: pooya87 on December 30, 2018, 12:28:45 AM

the real question is whether you are day trading or investing. and also about whether you think bitcoin is going to continue to rise or stop here.
for most people it is investing long term and they know bitcoin is going to rise so $5800 was the bottom where they bought and are happy about it and they are also happy that they can buy more at at lower price.

look at it this way: $240 was also the bottom in 2015 and the support was holding for months then some FUD came along and manipulation got severe enough to cause a 40% drop. do you think those who were accumulating at $240 care today?!

Agreed, long term investors obviously care less because their price targets are set years out. There's a pretty wide spectrum of Bitcoin investors between day traders and long term investors though. I'm sure many investors who bought above $6,000 are sour knowing they could have doubled their coins by waiting and some of them will sell into a larger rally so they can buy back lower. (Or they might sell if $3K breaks for the same reason)

A lot of investors are trying to maximize their coins long term and so they'll swing trade here and there. I've found this is especially true of smaller retail investors who can't afford to buy much initially.

Crypdon

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It is unlikely to hit that low note, lots of demand from whales looking to snap up a bargain. Right now it is frequently testing $4000 so an $800 drop will only happen if a massive whale does a huge dump

pooya87

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Quote from: figmentofmyass on December 29, 2018, 04:57:30 AM

Quote from: gentlemand on December 28, 2018, 07:17:51 AM

So this guy is telling people to sell at an absolute low. If I were employing him in my family office I would double check he was busy screwing with the minds of others.

only in the sense that $5800 was an absolute low. it was "support" for many months, so most of us assumed it would hold. but obviously it eventually broke and here we are, $2000 lower.

the OP is just pointing out the same possibility here. i'll agree it's risky selling after the market's already crashed 85% though.

the real question is whether you are day trading or investing. and also about whether you think bitcoin is going to continue to rise or stop here.
for most people it is investing long term and they know bitcoin is going to rise so $5800 was the bottom where they bought and are happy about it and they are also happy that they can buy more at at lower price.

look at it this way: $240 was also the bottom in 2015 and the support was holding for months then some FUD came along and manipulation got severe enough to cause a 40% drop. do you think those who were accumulating at $240 care today?!

vit05

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A hodl probably still has an average prize below the 1k. It does not have the slightest sense to sell while still having 100% profit with the possibility of re-earning a profit of 1000%.

If you are not a trader, your calculation should always take in consideration your average price, not the market price.

figmentofmyass

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on December 28, 2018, 11:48:09 PM

Quote from: figmentofmyass on December 28, 2018, 01:18:50 AM

"overbought" and "oversold" aren't as intuitive as they sound. in a downtrend, an oversold condition mostly just indicates that bearish momentum is really strong. on higher time frames, i've seen momentum and stochastic indicators oversold for weeks and months at a time. so taken alone, they're not buy signals.

i disagree with the trader though. we can stab below $3200 or $3k. the important thing is that buyers step in strongly and reject it. like we saw in january 2015. if i see a move like that again, i'll be confident the bear market is over.

If it is not a buy signal and you also disagree with the trader's opinion, therefore what is it? A signal for everyone to start looking for a buy signal? hehehe

sort of, actually. the $3k zone = "time to pay attention". if you see a strong reaction after a selloff into or below $3k (like the bottom in january 2015) then that's a buy signal. being oversold is not.

if price is just bleeding near $3k while oversold, bearish momentum is strong = buying is dangerous. that's why i don't catch knives---you can easily catch one in the neck! but shorting at or below the weekly 200ma is also dangerous. just look at what happened both times price stabbed below there in 2015. bears may become trapped very quickly.

if you're buying spot, just be prepared for lower prices. if you're longing or shorting, be prepared for a margin call. Wink

El duderino_

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Quote from: o_e_l_e_o on December 29, 2018, 07:46:35 AM

Quote from: St4yInTh3D4rk on December 29, 2018, 03:18:45 AM

Those are the people who never going to make any money if they care about these few hundred bucks,when someone interested in money making just buy now itself the prices may increase in the future to the new all time high when these hundreds will sound like nothing.

Yes, if you are looking long term. If you think 5 years down the line bitcoin will be worth $100k, then buying at $3k or $4k won't make that much difference to you. However, if you are planning to trade all the way along the rises and dips, then entering at $3k or $4k could make a much bigger difference.

However, regardless of how you look at it,telling people to sell at an 18 month low isn't excatly the best advice.

The f***ing worst only a nocoiner can give that kind of advice... if Someone would have Said @the rise towards 10-12-15-18-20k etc sell some Maybe its dipping back
Then i would say ok but @this time??
What an idiot

o_e_l_e_o

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Quote from: St4yInTh3D4rk on December 29, 2018, 03:18:45 AM

Those are the people who never going to make any money if they care about these few hundred bucks,when someone interested in money making just buy now itself the prices may increase in the future to the new all time high when these hundreds will sound like nothing.

Yes, if you are looking long term. If you think 5 years down the line bitcoin will be worth $100k, then buying at $3k or $4k won't make that much difference to you. However, if you are planning to trade all the way along the rises and dips, then entering at $3k or $4k could make a much bigger difference.

However, regardless of how you look at it, telling people to sell at an 18 month low isn't excatly the best advice.

El duderino_

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Quote from: St4yInTh3D4rk on December 29, 2018, 03:18:45 AM

Quote from: El duderino_ on December 28, 2018, 06:27:33 PM

Quote from: bitmover on December 28, 2018, 06:15:57 PM

Quote from: El duderino_ on December 28, 2018, 04:48:56 PM

when someone advice is to sell when the price is on its lowest point.... then i just think some FUDcoolaid is being brew right there
for hodlers and buyers @these prices DON'T DRINK IT !!!! Grin

Really makes no sense
If it goes below 3200, buy do not sell.

even from these prices already what does it matter 3K-4K longterm ?

doesn't change a F***

Those are the people who never going to make any money if they care about these few hundred bucks,when someone interested in money making just buy now itself the prices may increase in the future to the new all time high when these hundreds will sound like nothing.

indeed

Wind_FURY

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OP, take that dirty picture down, and replace it with this one. Cool

6 digits. It might be later than I thought, months after the halving, but Bitcoin will reach it. If you are not buying, then don't say we only "got lucky". Everyone is given the same opportunity to pick up these cheap coins.

figmentofmyass

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Quote from: gentlemand on December 28, 2018, 07:17:51 AM

So this guy is telling people to sell at an absolute low. If I were employing him in my family office I would double check he was busy screwing with the minds of others.

only in the sense that $5800 was an absolute low. it was "support" for many months, so most of us assumed it would hold. but obviously it eventually broke and here we are, $2000 lower.

the OP is just pointing out the same possibility here. i'll agree it's risky selling after the market's already crashed 85% though.

St4yInTh3D4rk

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"STAY IN THE DARK"

Quote from: El duderino_ on December 28, 2018, 06:27:33 PM

Quote from: bitmover on December 28, 2018, 06:15:57 PM

Quote from: El duderino_ on December 28, 2018, 04:48:56 PM

when someone advice is to sell when the price is on its lowest point.... then i just think some FUDcoolaid is being brew right there
for hodlers and buyers @these prices DON'T DRINK IT !!!! Grin

Really makes no sense
If it goes below 3200, buy do not sell.

even from these prices already what does it matter 3K-4K longterm ?

doesn't change a F***

Those are the people who never going to make any money if they care about these few hundred bucks,when someone interested in money making just buy now itself the prices may increase in the future to the new all time high when these hundreds will sound like nothing.

Juggy777

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on December 27, 2018, 10:22:23 PM

I am not a technical analysis expert, however, bitcoin would be oversold under $3200 and it would be the right time to buy than to sell, wouldn't it?

What is the basic rule of trading again? Buy low, sell high[/i

Recently, Mark Dow, a preeminent hedge fund manager and skilled chartist, took to Twitter on Tuesday to make an unexpected declaration. In a tweet seemingly poking fun at crypto’s zealous bulls, Dow wrote that he would be saying goodbye to his Bitcoin (BTC) short, which he purportedly opened during the asset’s peak in late-2017.

In a phone interview with Bloomberg, the ostensible Bitcoin bear made it clear that his tweet wasn’t made in jest, adding that he was “done” with the position. Speaking to the outlet, Dow explained that he doesn’t “want to try and ride this thing to zero,” potentially indicating that he sees some semblance of value in BTC. Equating his anti-BTC forecast to a lemon, he stated:

“I don’t want to try to squeeze more out of the lemon. I don’t want to think about it. It seemed like the right time.”
The current head of a Southern California family office then explained that he already took profits twice this year, making the covering of his controversial short more than logical, especially from a risk management standpoint.

Just a few weeks later, Dow has taken to Twitter again, this time to paint a bearish picture for BTC’s prospects, specifically from a technical analysis outlook. The American economist recently wrote that BTC’s chart remains “beautiful,” but noted that if the asset cannot breach the $5,000 or $6,000 prices levels in a bounce, “cyberbulls” will be in for a tough time.

Read in full https://ethereumworldnews.com/bitcoin-under-3200-hodlers-gtfo-bearish/

There's so much daily drama regarding the entry and exit into bitcoins that many investors have stopped paying attention to such calls, also since when do you listen to a bear trader to make profits?. I would suggest all to make a decision based on whether they have the funds to buy and hodl for long term, irrespective of the short term fluctuations, or sell only if there's an emergency. I feel investors are wise these days, and they can take smart decisions but in my personal opinion the bear trader opinion is horribly wrong.

buwaytress

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Quote from: exstasie on December 28, 2018, 05:06:40 AM

Overbought/oversold are only useful signals in range markets where you should generally buy when it's oversold and sell when it's overbought. During a trend, it doesn't work like that. Oversold in a bear market screams "stay on the sidelines" or "short the bounce" to me. It means bears are in control.

In times like these all you can really do is wait for bulls to make a stand.

Yep! You can't fight momentum, and all those spikes in opposite directions are spurts of inertia, good to take advantage of for them traders, but inconsequential to holders. This is everything pointing to a waiting game, and we're talking about a long, long wait.

Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on December 28, 2018, 05:36:04 AM

If we do go sub $3,000 just use it as an opportunity to load up & increase your bitcoin stash. As long as people aren’t desperare for quick profits then bitcoin is the best investment around in mumy opinion.

I think it’s pretty certain we’ll go north of $10,000 within a year or two so now is a great tike for accumulation.

Which is why I'm really not worried even if we see another 50-70% off today's prices, but also why I feel left out since am not able to add very much at all to my holdings. I will be swallowing hard if BTC reaches 3 digit dollar prices but it's all white noise now for long-term accumulators. Bitcoin undisputedly the best in its class, keeps proving itself even in this period of adversity.

bbc.reporter

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Quote from: figmentofmyass on December 28, 2018, 01:18:50 AM

Quote from: bbc.reporter on December 27, 2018, 10:22:23 PM

I am not a technical analysis expert, however, bitcoin would be oversold under $3200 and it would be the right time to buy than to sell, wouldn't it?

"overbought" and "oversold" aren't as intuitive as they sound. in a downtrend, an oversold condition mostly just indicates that bearish momentum is really strong. on higher time frames, i've seen momentum and stochastic indicators oversold for weeks and months at a time. so taken alone, they're not buy signals.

i disagree with the trader though. we can stab below $3200 or $3k. the important thing is that buyers step in strongly and reject it. like we saw in january 2015. if i see a move like that again, i'll be confident the bear market is over.

If it is not a buy signal and you also disagree with the trader's opinion, therefore what is it? A signal for everyone to start looking for a buy signal? hehehe

El duderino_

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Quote from: bitmover on December 28, 2018, 06:15:57 PM

Quote from: El duderino_ on December 28, 2018, 04:48:56 PM

when someone advice is to sell when the price is on its lowest point.... then i just think some FUDcoolaid is being brew right there
for hodlers and buyers @these prices DON'T DRINK IT !!!! Grin

Really makes no sense
If it goes below 3200, buy do not sell.

even from these prices already what does it matter 3K-4K longterm ?

doesn't change a F***

bitmover

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Quote from: El duderino_ on December 28, 2018, 04:48:56 PM

when someone advice is to sell when the price is on its lowest point.... then i just think some FUDcoolaid is being brew right there
for hodlers and buyers @these prices DON'T DRINK IT !!!! Grin

Really makes no sense
If it goes below 3200, buy do not sell.

exstasie

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Quote from: o_e_l_e_o on December 28, 2018, 04:28:15 PM

Quote from: bbc.reporter on December 27, 2018, 10:22:23 PM

skilled chartist

You might as well write "skilled fortune teller" or "skilled psychic" as far as I'm concerned. If he is so skilled to think bitcoin is going to drop to $3k, then surely he should be advising everybody to sell now and then buy at $3k, no? Why would he be telling people to sell at a low? Isn't this basic trading 101? Buy low, sell high?

I mean, I also think bitcoin might well drop below $3k, but I'll be taking that opportunity to stock up, not panic sell.

Conventionally when a major support level is lost, one should expect a new downtrend to form. That's because everyone who bought above the support is now a bagholder who is pressured to cut losses.

The OP is pointing to the 200-week MA as a major support, evidenced by the bottom this month. His overall assumption is correct IMO, but the problem is merely dipping below support isn't enough to confirm it's broken. The market is prone to liquidity vacuums so temporary price extremes are normal. You need more evidence, like a strong candle close below the 200-week MA.

In a downtrend like this, I prefer to sell bounces when I see buying exhaustion rather than waiting for support to break. Shorting near support is always a gamble, and waiting for confirmation can mean waiting until price is $500 or $1,000 lower.

El duderino_

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when someone advice is to sell when the price is on its lowest point.... then i just think some FUDcoolaid is being brew right there
for hodlers and buyers @these prices DON'T DRINK IT !!!! Grin

o_e_l_e_o

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on December 27, 2018, 10:22:23 PM

skilled chartist

You might as well write "skilled fortune teller" or "skilled psychic" as far as I'm concerned. If he is so skilled to think bitcoin is going to drop to $3k, then surely he should be advising everybody to sell now and then buy at $3k, no? Why would he be telling people to sell at a low? Isn't this basic trading 101? Buy low, sell high?

I mean, I also think bitcoin might well drop below $3k, but I'll be taking that opportunity to stock up, not panic sell.

Kevin77

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Honestly I got out already because I think bitcoin is not looking great for the short term. However I do not mean short term like 6 months or something, I just mean the next week or so. I will probably get back into bitcoin at around 5th of January or so depending on the price.

So far after I sold price has fallen and I am really happy about my decision, if the price stays the same than I will definitely buy back with all the money I have or at least keep buying for couple days in a row waiting for a move. I will probably but some buy orders and sell orders in order either buy while its going up or sell if its going low. Those type of moves are really important on a volatile investment like bitcoin, if you buy at 3600 than you should sell at around 3500 or at least 3480 or so, because that means it will go even lower, if you want to buy right now put a buy order at 3780 or so because that means it will go higher as well.

Topic: Holders should get out if bitcoin falls under $3200 says bear trader (Read 491 times)