Holy CRAP the manipulator has pulled out!!!!! Freefall seems inevitable - page 3.

Cluster2k

legendary

Activity: 1692

Merit: 1018

Quote from: Nagle on August 27, 2011, 02:10:31 AM

Quote from: Cluster2k on August 27, 2011, 01:54:58 AM

I don't think bitcoin can be described as a pyramid scheme. It's more like a dotcom stock in 1999. There's a lot of hype, a big push towards the 'new paradigm' by supporters and those with vested interests, and very little real economic activity to support it all. The dotcom bubble didn't burst because it was a pyramid scheme. It burst because people opened their eyes and looked at why they should keep investing in it. They saw nothing, and left in a mad rush.

Bitcoin isn't like a stock because it doesn't generate revenue. The speculation end is a zero-sum game.

A large majority of dotcom stocks didn't generate any revenue either :-) They were rather brilliant at burning cash however.

Nagle

legendary

Activity: 1204

Merit: 1002

Quote from: Cluster2k on August 27, 2011, 01:54:58 AM

I don't think bitcoin can be described as a pyramid scheme. It's more like a dotcom stock in 1999. There's a lot of hype, a big push towards the 'new paradigm' by supporters and those with vested interests, and very little real economic activity to support it all. The dotcom bubble didn't burst because it was a pyramid scheme. It burst because people opened their eyes and looked at why they should keep investing in it. They saw nothing, and left in a mad rush.

Bitcoin isn't like a stock because it doesn't generate revenue. The speculation end is a zero-sum game.

I agree about the "lot of hype, new paradigm talk, very little economic activity" part.

Cluster2k

legendary

Activity: 1692

Merit: 1018

Quote from: Nagle on August 26, 2011, 11:55:03 PM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on August 26, 2011, 02:35:57 PM

The thing with bubbles is: They either recover to a median value or completely die out. I can't possible imagine the latter at this point.

Why not? Pyramid schemes normally die out. The only way Bitcoin can have a long life is if it develops substantial use as a medium of exchange. That's not happening. If the Bitcoin world is dominated by speculation, it's doomed.

I don't think bitcoin can be described as a pyramid scheme. It's more like a dotcom stock in 1999. There's a lot of hype, a big push towards the 'new paradigm' by supporters and those with vested interests, and very little real economic activity to support it all. The dotcom bubble didn't burst because it was a pyramid scheme. It burst because people opened their eyes and looked at why they should keep investing in it. They saw nothing, and left in a mad rush.

dustintrammell

vip

Activity: 156

Merit: 103

Cleverly disguised as a responsible adult.

Quote from: Edward50 on August 25, 2011, 05:57:04 PM

This could honestly be a really bad down turn coming. It may even reach new lows.

What would a "new" low be? Considering that the USD price of BTC started at $0, I don't think you can really get much lower than that. (:

Unless you want to PAY me to take your Bitcoins, which I'll be happy to do if there ever comes the day...

Nagle

legendary

Activity: 1204

Merit: 1002

Quote from: ElectricMucus on August 26, 2011, 02:35:57 PM

The thing with bubbles is: They either recover to a median value or completely die out. I can't possible imagine the latter at this point.

Why not? Pyramid schemes normally die out. The only way Bitcoin can have a long life is if it develops substantial use as a medium of exchange. That's not happening. If the Bitcoin world is dominated by speculation, it's doomed.

ElectricMucus

legendary

Activity: 1666

Merit: 1057

Marketing manager - GO MP

Quote from: Nagle on August 26, 2011, 02:22:58 PM

Look at the last full year:

Bitcoin - a classic speculative bubble.

I've been saying this consistently for months. Time is proving me right.

The thing with bubbles is:
They either recover to a median value or completely die out. I can't possible imagine the latter at this point. So the question we have to ask us: where will the median be?

Also, especially within bitcoin there is a fractal pattern of bubbles, this is just the biggest yet and there are even larger ones coming up. and each circle takes proportionally longer. The gartner hype cycle and black swan theory both agree on this. So we are absolutely fine. And if you don't have to cash out soon it's even completely fine individually.

dree12

legendary

Activity: 1246

Merit: 1077

Long slow slide? Of course! That's what these charts say!

Nagle

legendary

Activity: 1204

Merit: 1002

Bitcoin/USD, Mt. Gox, last 60 days. The long, slow slide continues.

It's a long, slow slide as the bubble deflates. The market is so thin that when someone does a big sell, there's a big drop. Then there's a recovery, but it's always lower than the previous high.

Look at the last full year:

Bitcoin - a classic speculative bubble.

I've been saying this consistently for months. Time is proving me right.

Piper67

legendary

Activity: 1106

Merit: 1001

Quote from: Jack of Diamonds on August 26, 2011, 02:00:48 PM

Quote from: Luke-Jr on August 25, 2011, 06:10:32 PM

The real market value is over $30. Get some cheap while you can.

What is this based on?

Not as a skeptical question, but since you as a big pool op. might have better understanding of the market, statistics etc.
(I find $30 perfectly logical in the long term, just would like to know the reasoning)

Heh, the REAL market value is upwards of $10,000 per BTC... it all depends what decade we're talking about Grin

Jack of Diamonds

sr. member

Activity: 252

Merit: 251

Quote from: Luke-Jr on August 25, 2011, 06:10:32 PM

The real market value is over $30. Get some cheap while you can.

What is this based on?

Not as a skeptical question, but since you as a big pool op. might have better understanding of the market, statistics etc.
(I find $30 perfectly logical in the long term, just would like to know the reasoning)

dancupid

hero member

Activity: 955

Merit: 1002

Quote from: Piper67 on August 26, 2011, 10:35:45 AM

Quote from: dancupid on August 26, 2011, 10:30:50 AM

Quote from: Piper67 on August 26, 2011, 10:15:53 AM

Quote from: dancupid on August 26, 2011, 10:10:30 AM

Quote from: Piper67 on August 26, 2011, 10:05:09 AM

Quote from: dancupid on August 26, 2011, 10:02:55 AM

Quote from: Piper67 on August 26, 2011, 09:58:20 AM

Quote from: the founder on August 26, 2011, 09:55:40 AM

I have to admit I have mixed feelings about this, yea it's dropping in price.. but deposits at flexcoin hit the roof.

generally there's an inverse relationship ... (not always but it appears to be that way more than 50% of the time)...

Heh, Founder, for every BTC sold, one BTC is bought! Thousands of bitcoins have been dumped into the market in the last few hours. Where did you think they'd be going?

If anything, take it as a strong vote of confidence that those buying think Flexcoin is worthy of their trust.

Assuming that the person buying isn't just the person selling them (you just need 2 mt.gox accounts)

You are quite right. But even if that was the case, his or her whole idea in doing that would be to create downwards momentum, so there would be others (miners, hoarders, people who need to pay rent), who'll go into "panic sell" mode.

At which point he can start buying, and when the time is right do the same thing in the opposite direction and then sell and drag down the price and then buy and then....

True, but he (or she) cannot really guarantee that when he dumps thousands of BTC, he'll be able to buy them all back. Some will get snagged by others. Also, he (or she) could get trumped on by someone with more USD at the ready in their account. If you jump in quickly enough, or just a fraction of a cent sooner, you can take all the BTC that the original manipulator wanted for himself (or herself).

It's a bit of a gamble, especially as more traders with money start coming in.

It's a gamble, but someone with the right tools could analyses the orderbook, look for the moment where there is a distribution that allows them to buy back all their own bitcoins plus a few others and drag the price down to the level they want. Anyone with 10,000 btc and $100,000 could do whatever they wanted. A 6000 btc buy can drag the price down 5%.
My advice would be to assume manipulation and let the manipulator be your guide - ie buy low and sell high (most obvious statement of the year I know - but the market is distorted by big players).

Agreed, at current BTC/USD prices, a trivially small amount of money would allow any trader to make thousands during a five minute break in his lunch hour Grin

Things will start to change once the price of each BTC rises significantly... that should weed out the small time manipulators.

What we need is a few more big players - make manipulation more competitive.