Date : 10th November 2021.
Market Update – November 10 – Inflation, Oil & Yields.
* USD (USDIndex 94.09) recovers 94.00, PPI in-line with exceptions but Chinese PPI hit an all-time (26-yr) high +13.5%% & CPI doubled last month to 1.5%. Equities slip from key levels, yields decline to 6-wk lows and Oil rallied. FedSpeak dominated by Doves yesterday but calling caution on inflation – nothing new from Powell, Lagarde or Bailey. Brainard apparently interviewed for FED Chair, Biden cranks up gasoline plan & plans to video meet with Xi next week, Musk “lost” $50bn.
* Evergrande $148m interest payment due today & contemporary Fantasia needs “help”. This isn’t going away as the Chinese authorities (in the middle of reappointing Xi) may have hoped for.
* US Yields (10yr closed down again at 1.432%) having hit a 6-week low at 1.4150 yesterday as the Auction was filled at 1.44% (1.58% – last time) back to 1.46% now.
* Equities down failing to hold key levels. USA500 -16.00 (-0.35%) at 4685 – Big movers; TSLA -11.99%, PayPal -10.46%, VISA -3.22%, AMZN +2.5%. GE (once the world biggest company) to split into 3. USA500.F trades lower at 4677. Asian equities weaker again on Chinese data.
* USOil – rallies on drawdown in private inventories compared to a build. Spiked over $83.00 to 6-day high $83.25. Biden may act on high US Gasoline prices.
Gold recovers further testing as high as $1833 on open as Inflation hedge trade builds, back to $1824 now.
* FX markets – EURUSD down to 1.1565, USDJPY back over 113.00, from 112.80 lows & Cable back to 1.3550 having rejected 1.3600. AUD & NZD at 4-wk low.
European Open – December 10-yr Bund future fractionally lower, Treasury futures underperforming. Yields are off session highs, but after bonds were surprisingly firm in the wake of yesterday’s US PPI, there is likely some caution ahead of the key US CPI later today.
Today – US CPI & Weekly Claims, ECB’s Elderson, – US & CAD closed tomorrow for Veterans Day.
Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCAD (-0.44%) Chinese and Oil news combine to move pair lower. Collapsed from 0.8920 to 0.8820 before finding some support. Faster MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram falling & under 0 line, RSI 34 & recovering from 19.00 lows. H1 ATR 0.0011, Daily ATR 0.0062.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Topic: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News. - page 6. (Read 32319 times)
Date : 9th November 2021.
Market Update – November 9 – USD Cools ahead of Inflation data.
* USD (USDIndex 93.85) down again from Friday’s 1-yr high 94.62, under 94.00. PPI today & CPI tomorrow weigh as equities grind higher & yields slip again. FED Vice-Chair Clarida remained Dovish “a ways away from considering raising interest rates,” although “necessary conditions for raising the target range for the federal funds rate will have been met by year-end 2022.” Bullard & Bowman much more Hawkish; “If inflation is more persistent than we are saying right now, then I think we may have to take a little sooner action in order to keep inflation under control.”
* Evergrande contemporary Kaisa needs “help”, downgraded by Fitch; Fed warns “ailing Chinese real estate sector poses threat to US economy” – FT
* US Yields (10yr closed down again at 1.474%) lifted a tad overnight to 1.497%, below key 1.50 level.
* Equities at all-time highs again but limited gains – USA500 +4.17 (+0.09%) at 4701 – Big movers – TSLA -4.84%, AMD +10.14%, AMC +8.06%. Softbank, PayPal, Roblox, Tencent and Zynga all beat Earnings expectations – USA500.F back to 4686. Asian equities weaker.
* USOil – slips below $81.00 to $80.65. Biden may act on high US Gasoline prices – speaking with OPEC+ re output, Private Inventories later today.
* Gold recovers further from Friday’s breach & break of $1800 as yields remain weak, inflation worries swirl and seasonality looms. Touched $1827 for a 45-day high earlier, back to $1824 now.
* FX markets – EURUSD up to 1.1600, USDJPY under 113.00, @112.80 & Cable up to 1.3570.
Overnight – JPY data mixed; Earnings & Current Account weaker than expected, Lending and Econ. Sentiment significantly higher. JPY recovers recent losses. German Trade Balance missed – Exports declined -0.7% while Imports nudged up 0.1%, suggesting more weakness.
European Open – Dec 10-yr Bund future up 1 tick, DAX & FTSE 100 futures down -0.2% & -0.3% respectively, US futures also in red, after a largely weaker session across the Asia-Pacific region overnight. Volatility in bond markets has been very high, as markets struggle to find an equilibrium amid the gradual advancing turn in CB cycles. That keeps central bank comments firmly in focus.
Today – EZ ZEW, US PPI, A whole gaggle of CB Speak – ECB’s Panetta, Knot, Lagarde, Schnabel, BOE’s Bailey & Broadbent, Fed’s Bullard, Powell, Daly. US 10-yr Bond Auction.
Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.39%) RJPY up on overnight data mix. back under 81.00 today to test 81.60. Faster MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram falling & under 0 line, RSI 39 & falling. H1 ATR 0.122, Daily ATR 0.784.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Market Update – November 9 – USD Cools ahead of Inflation data.
* USD (USDIndex 93.85) down again from Friday’s 1-yr high 94.62, under 94.00. PPI today & CPI tomorrow weigh as equities grind higher & yields slip again. FED Vice-Chair Clarida remained Dovish “a ways away from considering raising interest rates,” although “necessary conditions for raising the target range for the federal funds rate will have been met by year-end 2022.” Bullard & Bowman much more Hawkish; “If inflation is more persistent than we are saying right now, then I think we may have to take a little sooner action in order to keep inflation under control.”
* Evergrande contemporary Kaisa needs “help”, downgraded by Fitch; Fed warns “ailing Chinese real estate sector poses threat to US economy” – FT
* US Yields (10yr closed down again at 1.474%) lifted a tad overnight to 1.497%, below key 1.50 level.
* Equities at all-time highs again but limited gains – USA500 +4.17 (+0.09%) at 4701 – Big movers – TSLA -4.84%, AMD +10.14%, AMC +8.06%. Softbank, PayPal, Roblox, Tencent and Zynga all beat Earnings expectations – USA500.F back to 4686. Asian equities weaker.
* USOil – slips below $81.00 to $80.65. Biden may act on high US Gasoline prices – speaking with OPEC+ re output, Private Inventories later today.
* Gold recovers further from Friday’s breach & break of $1800 as yields remain weak, inflation worries swirl and seasonality looms. Touched $1827 for a 45-day high earlier, back to $1824 now.
* FX markets – EURUSD up to 1.1600, USDJPY under 113.00, @112.80 & Cable up to 1.3570.
Overnight – JPY data mixed; Earnings & Current Account weaker than expected, Lending and Econ. Sentiment significantly higher. JPY recovers recent losses. German Trade Balance missed – Exports declined -0.7% while Imports nudged up 0.1%, suggesting more weakness.
European Open – Dec 10-yr Bund future up 1 tick, DAX & FTSE 100 futures down -0.2% & -0.3% respectively, US futures also in red, after a largely weaker session across the Asia-Pacific region overnight. Volatility in bond markets has been very high, as markets struggle to find an equilibrium amid the gradual advancing turn in CB cycles. That keeps central bank comments firmly in focus.
Today – EZ ZEW, US PPI, A whole gaggle of CB Speak – ECB’s Panetta, Knot, Lagarde, Schnabel, BOE’s Bailey & Broadbent, Fed’s Bullard, Powell, Daly. US 10-yr Bond Auction.
Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.39%) RJPY up on overnight data mix. back under 81.00 today to test 81.60. Faster MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram falling & under 0 line, RSI 39 & falling. H1 ATR 0.122, Daily ATR 0.784.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 8th November 2021.
Market Update – November 8 – Heavy News Weekend Weighs.
* After records for Equities (440 of S&P500 have reported so far & Q3 Earnings up 41% overall) & a 1-yr high for USDIndex to conclude a huge data week, news flow over the weekend weighs on markets to start the trading week.
* Tesla CEO Musk, via a Twitter poll, asked if he should sell a 10% stake (USD 21bln) in Tesla; 57.9% voted “Yes” with over 3.5mln total votes.
* US House voted to pass $1.2tln bipartisan infrastructure bill late on Friday & sent it to President Biden for signing.
* Chinese trade data showed a larger-than-expected trade surplus & strong exports, but USD-denominated imports missed estimates.
* Some China Evergrande unit offshore bondholders have not received interest payments due Saturday.
UK reportedly prepared to trigger Article 16 of NI agreement & ditch customs checks before Christmas, EU sticking to deal.
———————————————————————————————
* USD (USDIndex 94.22) down from Friday’s 1-yr high 94.62 – post NFP – holds the bid.
* US Yields (10yr crashed into close at 1.453) lifted a tad overnight to 1.46%.
* Equities at all-time highs Friday – USA500 +17 (+0.37%) at 4697 (DOW -0.75%) – Big movers – PFE +10.86%, AirBnB +12.98%, DIS +3.14% – USA500.F back to 4683. Asian equities weaker.
* USOil – bounced Friday from Thursday’s low at $77.15 – rallied again today as ARAMCO increases prices – trading back to $81.00 now from $79.75 close on Friday.
* Gold recovers further from Friday’s breach & break of $1800 as yields remain weak. Touched $1820 today back to $1816 now.
* FX markets – EURUSD 1.1550, Cable 1.3478, USDJPY now 113.57.
European Open The December 10-year Bund future is down 9 ticks, U.S. futures are also losing ground. Markets are still finding a new equilibrium after central banks did their best to slap down overblown tightening expectations for the coming years last week. ECB’s Lane in an interview with a Spain’s El Pais also argued again that the current spike in prices will be temporary and that the central bank should not overreact, as inflation is still projected to undershoot target in the medium term. The DAX and FTSE 100 futures are currently down -0.2% and -0.1% respectively, with a -0.4% correction in the NASDAQ leading US futures lower.
Week Ahead – All about inflation data this week, with FED (and most other CBs) behind the curve – will they have to do more, more quickly, or are they correct in their assessment of the “transitory” nature of inflation? A plethora of central bankers will have the platform this week – kicking off today with 4 from the Fed.
Today – EZ Sentix Index, Fed’s Powell, Evans, Harker, Montgomery; ECB’s Lane
Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCHF (+0.63%) Recovering from Friday low at 0.6460 continues. Strong move over 0.6500 today to test 0.6530. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram rising& over 0 line, RSI 67 & rising. H1 ATR 0.0010, Daily ATR 0.0052.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Market Update – November 8 – Heavy News Weekend Weighs.
* After records for Equities (440 of S&P500 have reported so far & Q3 Earnings up 41% overall) & a 1-yr high for USDIndex to conclude a huge data week, news flow over the weekend weighs on markets to start the trading week.
* Tesla CEO Musk, via a Twitter poll, asked if he should sell a 10% stake (USD 21bln) in Tesla; 57.9% voted “Yes” with over 3.5mln total votes.
* US House voted to pass $1.2tln bipartisan infrastructure bill late on Friday & sent it to President Biden for signing.
* Chinese trade data showed a larger-than-expected trade surplus & strong exports, but USD-denominated imports missed estimates.
* Some China Evergrande unit offshore bondholders have not received interest payments due Saturday.
UK reportedly prepared to trigger Article 16 of NI agreement & ditch customs checks before Christmas, EU sticking to deal.
———————————————————————————————
* USD (USDIndex 94.22) down from Friday’s 1-yr high 94.62 – post NFP – holds the bid.
* US Yields (10yr crashed into close at 1.453) lifted a tad overnight to 1.46%.
* Equities at all-time highs Friday – USA500 +17 (+0.37%) at 4697 (DOW -0.75%) – Big movers – PFE +10.86%, AirBnB +12.98%, DIS +3.14% – USA500.F back to 4683. Asian equities weaker.
* USOil – bounced Friday from Thursday’s low at $77.15 – rallied again today as ARAMCO increases prices – trading back to $81.00 now from $79.75 close on Friday.
* Gold recovers further from Friday’s breach & break of $1800 as yields remain weak. Touched $1820 today back to $1816 now.
* FX markets – EURUSD 1.1550, Cable 1.3478, USDJPY now 113.57.
European Open The December 10-year Bund future is down 9 ticks, U.S. futures are also losing ground. Markets are still finding a new equilibrium after central banks did their best to slap down overblown tightening expectations for the coming years last week. ECB’s Lane in an interview with a Spain’s El Pais also argued again that the current spike in prices will be temporary and that the central bank should not overreact, as inflation is still projected to undershoot target in the medium term. The DAX and FTSE 100 futures are currently down -0.2% and -0.1% respectively, with a -0.4% correction in the NASDAQ leading US futures lower.
Week Ahead – All about inflation data this week, with FED (and most other CBs) behind the curve – will they have to do more, more quickly, or are they correct in their assessment of the “transitory” nature of inflation? A plethora of central bankers will have the platform this week – kicking off today with 4 from the Fed.
Today – EZ Sentix Index, Fed’s Powell, Evans, Harker, Montgomery; ECB’s Lane
Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCHF (+0.63%) Recovering from Friday low at 0.6460 continues. Strong move over 0.6500 today to test 0.6530. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram rising& over 0 line, RSI 67 & rising. H1 ATR 0.0010, Daily ATR 0.0052.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 5th November 2021.
Market Update – November 5 – NFP Day.
Receding fears of aggressive policy turns from the Fed and BoE saw shorts scramble to cover with yields plunging as the markets repriced policy outlooks. Although the FOMC announced tapering and the BoE warned of rate hikes down the road, the more patient stance taken by both banks wrongfooted bond bears and forced a repricing of rate expectations.
* USD up (USDIndex 94.40).
* Yields have backed up with the 10-year Treasury yield at 1.53%, but bonds across the Asia-Pacific region still caught up with yesterday’s rally, and the JGB rate is down -1.1 bp at 0.06.
* Equities were mostly firmer Thursday as well, with the USA100, USA500, GER30, and CAC40 all at record highs. – The equity rally started to stall today. Hang Seng and CSI 300 are currently down -1.2 and -0.3% respectively, JPN225 has lost -0.7%.
* China’s rising Covid-19 case numbers and problems in the country’s property sector remained in focus as developer Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. and its Hong Kong listed units were suspended from trading.
* The RBA’s quarterly policy statement with updated projections sounded upbeat on the recovery, but cautious on wage growth, which backs official assertions that rates won’t rise for a long time to come.
* USOil down at $78 lows after dropping sharply yesterday in the wake of the OPEC+ agreement to stick with the gradual 400K barrels a day increase in production, which boosted speculation that countries will tap their strategic reserves to keep a lid on prices.
* Gold up at 1798 as the falling yields provided support.
* FX markets – USD steady at 94.40 highs, AUD and NZD were under pressure, while the JPY strengthened, leaving USDJPY at 113.61. EURUSD at month low 1.1560 & GBPUSD stabilised at 1.3500.
* USDZAR – dipped early on Friday on elections results, after a volatile week during which it swung back and forth on domestic politics and US monetary policy. – ANC took 46% of the vote, its worst result since taking power at the end of white minority rule in 1994.
Today – The focus turns to the October employment report, where we expect non-farm payrolls to rise 380k versus the 194k in September. Hourly earnings should rise 0.4% after jumping 0.6% previously, while the average work week is seen dipping slightly to 34.7 from 34.8. The unemployment rate is penciled in at an unchanged 4.8%. September consumer credit is due late in the session.
For earnings, reports are due from Berkshire Hathaway, Toyota, Enbridge, Dominion Energy, Johnson Controls, Honda, Sempra, TELUS, Magna International, Ventas, and DraftKings. Next week the refunding auctions are on tap with $120 bln in 3-, 10-, and 30-year paper for sale.
Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.28%) dipped to 80.43. Faster MAs flattened, MACD signal line & histogram clash but are sharply negative, RSI 38 and neutral, all indicating consolidation for now. H1 ATR 0.133, Daily ATR 0.819.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Market Update – November 5 – NFP Day.
Receding fears of aggressive policy turns from the Fed and BoE saw shorts scramble to cover with yields plunging as the markets repriced policy outlooks. Although the FOMC announced tapering and the BoE warned of rate hikes down the road, the more patient stance taken by both banks wrongfooted bond bears and forced a repricing of rate expectations.
* USD up (USDIndex 94.40).
* Yields have backed up with the 10-year Treasury yield at 1.53%, but bonds across the Asia-Pacific region still caught up with yesterday’s rally, and the JGB rate is down -1.1 bp at 0.06.
* Equities were mostly firmer Thursday as well, with the USA100, USA500, GER30, and CAC40 all at record highs. – The equity rally started to stall today. Hang Seng and CSI 300 are currently down -1.2 and -0.3% respectively, JPN225 has lost -0.7%.
* China’s rising Covid-19 case numbers and problems in the country’s property sector remained in focus as developer Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. and its Hong Kong listed units were suspended from trading.
* The RBA’s quarterly policy statement with updated projections sounded upbeat on the recovery, but cautious on wage growth, which backs official assertions that rates won’t rise for a long time to come.
* USOil down at $78 lows after dropping sharply yesterday in the wake of the OPEC+ agreement to stick with the gradual 400K barrels a day increase in production, which boosted speculation that countries will tap their strategic reserves to keep a lid on prices.
* Gold up at 1798 as the falling yields provided support.
* FX markets – USD steady at 94.40 highs, AUD and NZD were under pressure, while the JPY strengthened, leaving USDJPY at 113.61. EURUSD at month low 1.1560 & GBPUSD stabilised at 1.3500.
* USDZAR – dipped early on Friday on elections results, after a volatile week during which it swung back and forth on domestic politics and US monetary policy. – ANC took 46% of the vote, its worst result since taking power at the end of white minority rule in 1994.
Today – The focus turns to the October employment report, where we expect non-farm payrolls to rise 380k versus the 194k in September. Hourly earnings should rise 0.4% after jumping 0.6% previously, while the average work week is seen dipping slightly to 34.7 from 34.8. The unemployment rate is penciled in at an unchanged 4.8%. September consumer credit is due late in the session.
For earnings, reports are due from Berkshire Hathaway, Toyota, Enbridge, Dominion Energy, Johnson Controls, Honda, Sempra, TELUS, Magna International, Ventas, and DraftKings. Next week the refunding auctions are on tap with $120 bln in 3-, 10-, and 30-year paper for sale.
Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.28%) dipped to 80.43. Faster MAs flattened, MACD signal line & histogram clash but are sharply negative, RSI 38 and neutral, all indicating consolidation for now. H1 ATR 0.133, Daily ATR 0.819.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 3rd November 2021.
Market Update – November 3 – Eyeing FED.
* A global rally in bonds helped knock Treasury rates lower as the markets repriced central bank outlooks, paring some of the more aggressive views on rate hikes. The moves across Treasuries, EGBs, and Asian bonds were precipitated by the RBA’s ending of YYC and push back against expectations for a 2022 tightening.
* Fears of an aggressive FOMC in 2022 were also pared, as were worries over a BoE rate hike as soon as Thursday. – US Yields lower (10yr rate fell to 1.54%).
* USD (USDIndex 94.00) eased as US futures steadiedafter posting new highs – The USA30 rose 0.39% to 36,053, closing over 36k for the first time ever. The USA500 advanced 0.37% to 4630, with the USA100 0.34% firmer at 15,649. GER30 and UK100 futures are down -0.013% and -0.12% respectively.
* Premier Li Keqiang warned that the Chinese economy faces new downward pressure, amid a pick up in Covid-19 case numbers, higher energy prices and supply problems. A strong China services PMI failed to lift confidence.
* USOil down at $81.18, amid some encouraging comments ahead of the OPEC+ meeting, which supported hopes that there will be some sort of agreement on higher outputs after all.
* Tesla’s Elon Musk bemoans German red tape, again – Tesla found a floor at 1145.
* Fired Apple employee files complaint with US labor agency – Apple at 150.00.
* FX markets – USD steady, USDJPY dropped back to 113.82 and AUD and NZD stabilised, after selling off yesterday.
FOMC preview: the Fed will resume its meeting today and announce its decision at 18:00 GMT, to be followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 18:30 GMT. This meeting does not include the quarterly economic forecasts or dot plots. The announcement of QE tapering is fully anticipated, leaving attention on Powell’s remarks and how he addresses inflation and growth dynamics. We expect he will reiterate the view that inflationary pressures are “transitory,” while acknowledging that prices have been elevated and are likely to remain high but mostly due to the reopenings from the pandemic and supply chain factors. He also should note the slowing in growth as evidenced by the slippage in Q3 GDP to the 2% rate, but again much can be attributed to supply constraints of labor and materials. Powell will not signal any timeframe for rate hikes but will try to downplay risks of a June liftoff while continuing to differentiate tapering from tightening.
Today – Markets are likely to be cautious ahead of the Fed announcement today and the BoE decision tomorrow. Data releases today include the final UK services PMI, as well as Eurozone unemployment data, ECB Lagarde Speech, US ADP and US ISM PMIs.
Interesting Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USOIL (-1%) dips below 81 and S1 extending lower BB downwards. Faster MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram turned negative, RSI 34 and neutral, while Stochastic dipped to 8 and is sloping down. H1 ATR 0.48, Daily ATR 1.95.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Market Update – November 3 – Eyeing FED.
* A global rally in bonds helped knock Treasury rates lower as the markets repriced central bank outlooks, paring some of the more aggressive views on rate hikes. The moves across Treasuries, EGBs, and Asian bonds were precipitated by the RBA’s ending of YYC and push back against expectations for a 2022 tightening.
* Fears of an aggressive FOMC in 2022 were also pared, as were worries over a BoE rate hike as soon as Thursday. – US Yields lower (10yr rate fell to 1.54%).
* USD (USDIndex 94.00) eased as US futures steadiedafter posting new highs – The USA30 rose 0.39% to 36,053, closing over 36k for the first time ever. The USA500 advanced 0.37% to 4630, with the USA100 0.34% firmer at 15,649. GER30 and UK100 futures are down -0.013% and -0.12% respectively.
* Premier Li Keqiang warned that the Chinese economy faces new downward pressure, amid a pick up in Covid-19 case numbers, higher energy prices and supply problems. A strong China services PMI failed to lift confidence.
* USOil down at $81.18, amid some encouraging comments ahead of the OPEC+ meeting, which supported hopes that there will be some sort of agreement on higher outputs after all.
* Tesla’s Elon Musk bemoans German red tape, again – Tesla found a floor at 1145.
* Fired Apple employee files complaint with US labor agency – Apple at 150.00.
* FX markets – USD steady, USDJPY dropped back to 113.82 and AUD and NZD stabilised, after selling off yesterday.
FOMC preview: the Fed will resume its meeting today and announce its decision at 18:00 GMT, to be followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 18:30 GMT. This meeting does not include the quarterly economic forecasts or dot plots. The announcement of QE tapering is fully anticipated, leaving attention on Powell’s remarks and how he addresses inflation and growth dynamics. We expect he will reiterate the view that inflationary pressures are “transitory,” while acknowledging that prices have been elevated and are likely to remain high but mostly due to the reopenings from the pandemic and supply chain factors. He also should note the slowing in growth as evidenced by the slippage in Q3 GDP to the 2% rate, but again much can be attributed to supply constraints of labor and materials. Powell will not signal any timeframe for rate hikes but will try to downplay risks of a June liftoff while continuing to differentiate tapering from tightening.
Today – Markets are likely to be cautious ahead of the Fed announcement today and the BoE decision tomorrow. Data releases today include the final UK services PMI, as well as Eurozone unemployment data, ECB Lagarde Speech, US ADP and US ISM PMIs.
Interesting Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USOIL (-1%) dips below 81 and S1 extending lower BB downwards. Faster MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram turned negative, RSI 34 and neutral, while Stochastic dipped to 8 and is sloping down. H1 ATR 0.48, Daily ATR 1.95.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 2nd November 2021.
Market Update – November 2 – Risk Appetite Soured.
* RBA confirms end of yield curve targeting and after abandoning any attempt to defend the 0.1% for the April 2024 yield last week, the bank confirmed today that the yield target has been ditched and opened the door for an earlier interest rate hike.
* Lowe stressed that the bank will see through spikes in the inflation rates, and that unlike elsewhere the RBA sees a further, but gradual increase in core inflation, as there is a lot of inertia in the labour market, which makes it hard to see inflation accelerating too quickly.
* Australian shares fell on Tuesday – Miners and banks worst performers
* AUD tanked as markets adjusted rate hike bets. AUDUSD at 0.7465 from 0.7533.
* US Yields were off their early highs (Currently 10yr fractionally higher at 1.56% compared to the day’s peak at 1.603%).
* USD (USDIndex 93.80) down as US futures in the red after a largely weaker session in Asia despite the strong earnings season. Overnight prices wobbled after the Manchin remarks and mixed data, but all rallied into the close. (A beat from the ISM, but a miss on construction spending, though they still modestly boosted growth prospects).
* The USA100 climbed 0.63% to 15,595, while the USA500 was 0.18% firmer at 4613, while the USA30 advanced 0.26% to 35,913. Treasury revised Q4 borrowings higher to $1,015 bln, with $650 December 31 cash balance, and $476 bln borrowings for Q1 2022. GER30 and UK100 futures are down -0.17% and -0.21%, respectively.
* Senator Manchin continued to oppose a quick vote on President Biden’s massive spending plans, saying he will not vote on a reconciliation package without knowing more about its impacts. He worries over programs that “irresponsibly” add to the debt, which totals over $29 tln, and which risks hurting families that are suffering from “historic inflation.” He said holding the infrastructure bill “hostage” will not get his support for reconciliation.
* USOil topped at $83.05, on slow OPEC oil output increase & China ramped up operating rates to meet a spike in diesel demand.
* Gold – up to 1796.30 again.
* FX markets – AUD sold off, Yen strengthened – EURUSD little changed at just over 1.1605, GBPUSD dropped back to 1.3630. Markets are concerned that an early lift off in rates could hamper a still fragile economy.
Today – Data releases today focus on final manufacturing PMIs for the Eurozone, which were delayed by the public holiday in parts of the region yesterday and employment data from New Zealand.
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.94%) dips to 1-week lows from 85.90 to 84.80. Faster MAs steadied, MACD signal line & histogram are sharply lower in negative territory, RSI 20 and neutral. H1 ATR 0.186, Daily ATR 0.806.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Market Update – November 2 – Risk Appetite Soured.
* RBA confirms end of yield curve targeting and after abandoning any attempt to defend the 0.1% for the April 2024 yield last week, the bank confirmed today that the yield target has been ditched and opened the door for an earlier interest rate hike.
* Lowe stressed that the bank will see through spikes in the inflation rates, and that unlike elsewhere the RBA sees a further, but gradual increase in core inflation, as there is a lot of inertia in the labour market, which makes it hard to see inflation accelerating too quickly.
* Australian shares fell on Tuesday – Miners and banks worst performers
* AUD tanked as markets adjusted rate hike bets. AUDUSD at 0.7465 from 0.7533.
* US Yields were off their early highs (Currently 10yr fractionally higher at 1.56% compared to the day’s peak at 1.603%).
* USD (USDIndex 93.80) down as US futures in the red after a largely weaker session in Asia despite the strong earnings season. Overnight prices wobbled after the Manchin remarks and mixed data, but all rallied into the close. (A beat from the ISM, but a miss on construction spending, though they still modestly boosted growth prospects).
* The USA100 climbed 0.63% to 15,595, while the USA500 was 0.18% firmer at 4613, while the USA30 advanced 0.26% to 35,913. Treasury revised Q4 borrowings higher to $1,015 bln, with $650 December 31 cash balance, and $476 bln borrowings for Q1 2022. GER30 and UK100 futures are down -0.17% and -0.21%, respectively.
* Senator Manchin continued to oppose a quick vote on President Biden’s massive spending plans, saying he will not vote on a reconciliation package without knowing more about its impacts. He worries over programs that “irresponsibly” add to the debt, which totals over $29 tln, and which risks hurting families that are suffering from “historic inflation.” He said holding the infrastructure bill “hostage” will not get his support for reconciliation.
* USOil topped at $83.05, on slow OPEC oil output increase & China ramped up operating rates to meet a spike in diesel demand.
* Gold – up to 1796.30 again.
* FX markets – AUD sold off, Yen strengthened – EURUSD little changed at just over 1.1605, GBPUSD dropped back to 1.3630. Markets are concerned that an early lift off in rates could hamper a still fragile economy.
Today – Data releases today focus on final manufacturing PMIs for the Eurozone, which were delayed by the public holiday in parts of the region yesterday and employment data from New Zealand.
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.94%) dips to 1-week lows from 85.90 to 84.80. Faster MAs steadied, MACD signal line & histogram are sharply lower in negative territory, RSI 20 and neutral. H1 ATR 0.186, Daily ATR 0.806.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 1st November 2021.
Market Update – November 1 – A Wild Start.
The markets were volatile through October as uncertainties over inflation, growth, and central bank reaction functions provided mixed directional signals. After early declines following record high inflation rates, both bonds and stocks ended in the green. Canada was an underperformer as the BoC trimmed QE and then ended it last week. The markets are looking for hawkish outcomes from the FOMC and BoE this week.The Reserve Bank of Australia also decides policy on Tuesday, with markets challenging the central bank’s contention that rates won’t rise until 2024.
Equities generally managed to rally as the massive amount of liquidity still in the system combined with good earnings results to overshadow concerns over growth amid headwinds from supply shortages, bottlenecks, Covid, and elevated costs.
* USD (USDIndex 93.45) jumped to a 3-week high against major peers on Monday as quickening inflation in the United States boosted the case for earlier Fed interest rate hikes ahead of a policy decision on Tuesday.
* Japan’s election boosted hopes for fiscal stimulus with PM Kishida managing to preserve an outright majority for his Liberal Democratic Party – Topix and JPN225 are up 2.2% and 2.6% respectively.
* China official manufacturing PMI slumped for a 7th consecutive monthly drop and leaves the index at its lowest level since October 2019. – Hang Seng and CSI 300 are currently down -0.95% and -0.33% respectively.
* German retail sales unexpectedly slumped -2.5 m/m in September.
* US Yields (10yr up at 1.56%).
* USOil steadied to $81.10.
* Gold – another volatile day (1810-1792), cannot hold $1800 and trades at $1794 now.
* FX markets – Strong USD, weak Yen – USDJPY rallied to 114.38, Cable capped by 1.3800 and trades at 1.3642, EURUSD 1. 1545. AUD also struggled as yields corrected.
Today – Another important week for central bank decisions that includes Fed and BoE announcements. Data releases today focus on final manufacturing PMIs for the Eurozone and the UK, which are likely to confirm that supply chain disruptions are weighing on output, while price pressures increase. US and Canadian Manufacturing PMI are also due.
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.63%) GBP giving up some gains ahead of BoE meeting. Faster MAs steadied, MACD signal line & histogram cooling but still negative, RSI 46 and neutral. H1 ATR 0.0019, Daily ATR 0.01090.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Market Update – November 1 – A Wild Start.
The markets were volatile through October as uncertainties over inflation, growth, and central bank reaction functions provided mixed directional signals. After early declines following record high inflation rates, both bonds and stocks ended in the green. Canada was an underperformer as the BoC trimmed QE and then ended it last week. The markets are looking for hawkish outcomes from the FOMC and BoE this week.The Reserve Bank of Australia also decides policy on Tuesday, with markets challenging the central bank’s contention that rates won’t rise until 2024.
Equities generally managed to rally as the massive amount of liquidity still in the system combined with good earnings results to overshadow concerns over growth amid headwinds from supply shortages, bottlenecks, Covid, and elevated costs.
* USD (USDIndex 93.45) jumped to a 3-week high against major peers on Monday as quickening inflation in the United States boosted the case for earlier Fed interest rate hikes ahead of a policy decision on Tuesday.
* Japan’s election boosted hopes for fiscal stimulus with PM Kishida managing to preserve an outright majority for his Liberal Democratic Party – Topix and JPN225 are up 2.2% and 2.6% respectively.
* China official manufacturing PMI slumped for a 7th consecutive monthly drop and leaves the index at its lowest level since October 2019. – Hang Seng and CSI 300 are currently down -0.95% and -0.33% respectively.
* German retail sales unexpectedly slumped -2.5 m/m in September.
* US Yields (10yr up at 1.56%).
* USOil steadied to $81.10.
* Gold – another volatile day (1810-1792), cannot hold $1800 and trades at $1794 now.
* FX markets – Strong USD, weak Yen – USDJPY rallied to 114.38, Cable capped by 1.3800 and trades at 1.3642, EURUSD 1. 1545. AUD also struggled as yields corrected.
Today – Another important week for central bank decisions that includes Fed and BoE announcements. Data releases today focus on final manufacturing PMIs for the Eurozone and the UK, which are likely to confirm that supply chain disruptions are weighing on output, while price pressures increase. US and Canadian Manufacturing PMI are also due.
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.63%) GBP giving up some gains ahead of BoE meeting. Faster MAs steadied, MACD signal line & histogram cooling but still negative, RSI 46 and neutral. H1 ATR 0.0019, Daily ATR 0.01090.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 29th October 2021.
Market Update – October 29 – USD Lower, Stocks Hit Highs, Apple & Amazon Miss.
* USD (USDIndex 93.45) slipped on Q3 GDP miss & ECB ending PEPP in March but neither ruling out nor confirming rate hikes. Yields remains main driver of sentiment as spreads remain at March 2020 lows. Stocks hit record highs before surprise misses from APPL & AMZN, FB re-branded to META “Meta is moving beyond 2D screens toward immersive experiences like augmented and virtual reality to help build the next evolution in social technology”, & Biden pushed hard for $1.75trn budget plan. Today also week & month end.
* Evergrande – paid another bond dollar coupon (on default day).
* US Yields (10yr closed at 1.568) lifted in Asian now 1.61%.
* Equities – new ATH for USA500 -44 (+0.98%) at 4596 (Nasdaq +1.39%) – Big movers – CAT +4.00%, TSLA +3.78%, APPL+2.5% (then fell -3.4% after hours) – USA500.F back to 4566. Asian equities very mixed.
* USOil up from lows yesterday at $79.40 (again) to $81.40.
* Gold another volatile day (1810-1792) cannot hold $1800 and trades at $1794 now.
* FX markets largely flat at month end – EURUSD rallied post ECB to 1.1692 now at 1.1665, Cable capped by 1.3800 trades at 1.3785, USDJPY 113.60.
Overnight Signs RBA is ditching attempt at yield control, stronger data from AUD (PPI, Retail Sales) & weak data from JPY (Ind. Prod, Consumer Confidence, Housing Starts). Big beat for French GDP (+3.0% vs 2.2% & 1.1% last time) & CPI a tick stronger.
European Open – – December 10-yr Bund future has lost 61 ticks in early trade, Treasury futures also under pressure. Tapering speculation is back with a vengeance. ECB yesterday confirmed PEPP will end on time in March next year, now has until December to make up its mind. BoE meets next week & chief economist Pill (big Hawk) confirmed that it will be a “live” meeting, which means possibility of a rate hike will be discussed at least. Stocks hit as yields spike higher, DAX & FTSE 100 futures currently down -0.45 and -0.2% respectively.
Today – German GDP, EZ CPI, US PCE Price Index,Chicago PMI, Canadian GDP Earnings: BNP Paribas, Daimler, Danske Bank, Eni, EssilorLuxottica, Safran, Signify, Swiss Re; Exxon, Chevron, Phillips 66, AbbVie, Colgate-Palmolive.
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURUSD (+0.19%) EUR giving up some of the post ECB bid. Faster MAs rolling over lower, 21Hr being tested, MACD signal line & histogram colling but still positive, RSI 54 and neutral. H1 ATR 0.0007, Daily ATR 0.0051.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Market Update – October 29 – USD Lower, Stocks Hit Highs, Apple & Amazon Miss.
* USD (USDIndex 93.45) slipped on Q3 GDP miss & ECB ending PEPP in March but neither ruling out nor confirming rate hikes. Yields remains main driver of sentiment as spreads remain at March 2020 lows. Stocks hit record highs before surprise misses from APPL & AMZN, FB re-branded to META “Meta is moving beyond 2D screens toward immersive experiences like augmented and virtual reality to help build the next evolution in social technology”, & Biden pushed hard for $1.75trn budget plan. Today also week & month end.
* Evergrande – paid another bond dollar coupon (on default day).
* US Yields (10yr closed at 1.568) lifted in Asian now 1.61%.
* Equities – new ATH for USA500 -44 (+0.98%) at 4596 (Nasdaq +1.39%) – Big movers – CAT +4.00%, TSLA +3.78%, APPL+2.5% (then fell -3.4% after hours) – USA500.F back to 4566. Asian equities very mixed.
* USOil up from lows yesterday at $79.40 (again) to $81.40.
* Gold another volatile day (1810-1792) cannot hold $1800 and trades at $1794 now.
* FX markets largely flat at month end – EURUSD rallied post ECB to 1.1692 now at 1.1665, Cable capped by 1.3800 trades at 1.3785, USDJPY 113.60.
Overnight Signs RBA is ditching attempt at yield control, stronger data from AUD (PPI, Retail Sales) & weak data from JPY (Ind. Prod, Consumer Confidence, Housing Starts). Big beat for French GDP (+3.0% vs 2.2% & 1.1% last time) & CPI a tick stronger.
European Open – – December 10-yr Bund future has lost 61 ticks in early trade, Treasury futures also under pressure. Tapering speculation is back with a vengeance. ECB yesterday confirmed PEPP will end on time in March next year, now has until December to make up its mind. BoE meets next week & chief economist Pill (big Hawk) confirmed that it will be a “live” meeting, which means possibility of a rate hike will be discussed at least. Stocks hit as yields spike higher, DAX & FTSE 100 futures currently down -0.45 and -0.2% respectively.
Today – German GDP, EZ CPI, US PCE Price Index,Chicago PMI, Canadian GDP Earnings: BNP Paribas, Daimler, Danske Bank, Eni, EssilorLuxottica, Safran, Signify, Swiss Re; Exxon, Chevron, Phillips 66, AbbVie, Colgate-Palmolive.
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURUSD (+0.19%) EUR giving up some of the post ECB bid. Faster MAs rolling over lower, 21Hr being tested, MACD signal line & histogram colling but still positive, RSI 54 and neutral. H1 ATR 0.0007, Daily ATR 0.0051.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 28th October 2021.
Market Update – October 28 – USD Mixed, Stocks Down, Yield Curve Flattens, Oil tanks.
* USD (USDIndex 93.82) V. choppy session as Yield spreads narrowed to March 2020 lows (2&5yr higher, 10&30yr lower) – catalysts Inflation worries, surprise ending of QE, earlier rates hikes suggested from BOC. Stocks down, Oil sank. Durable Goods missed but not as bad as expected, Trade balance at record $96.3 bn.
* US Yields (10yr crashed into close at 1.529) lifted in Asian now 1.57%.
* Equities lower – USA500 -23 (-0.51%) at 4551 (DOW -0.75%) – Big movers – MSFT +4.21%, GOOGL + 4.96%, EXXON -2.6%, JPM -2.08% – USA500.F back to 4545. Asian equities weaker.
* USOil down on Inventories more than a double build – at 4.3m vs 2.0m & draw down last week of 400k barrels. Low $79.39 earlier from $83.70 on Monday.
* Gold recovers from $1783 low yesterday to breach $1800 now.
* FX markets – EURUSD 1.1600, Cable 1.3750, USDJPY now 113.70
ECB Preview: The central bank is widely expected to keep policy settings on hold today, after Lagarde signalled last month that the important decisions on the future of PEPP and possible changes to the older APP programmes won’t be taken until December. Still, markets will be hoping for some signals on the flavour of the discussion at the presser. The departure (by year end) of Bundesbank President Weidmann – the most hawkish and traditional central banker at the council – fueled speculation of a further strengthening of the older APP asset purchase programs. The ECB’s mandate will still have to be respected, but by keeping some flexibility for emergency situations the ECB could still send a dovish signal, even if it confirms in December that PEPP will end on time in March next year – as is widely expected.
European Open The December 10-year Bund future is up 4 ticks, but the 30-year future is moving higher long Gilt futures are rallying, as markets turn pessimistic on the growth outlook. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are managing slight gains though in line with US futures.
Today – German Unemployment, EZ Consumer Confidence, US GDP, PCE Prices Advance, Weekly Claims, ECB Policy Announcement and Press Conference Earnings- Airbus, AB InBev, Carlsberg, Evolution Gaming, Nokia, Saint Gobain; Shell; Amazon, Apple, Comcast, Merck, Caterpillar, Mastercard, Yum!, Shopify.
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDCAD (+0.37%) Recovering from BOC shock yesterday down to 0.8820 back to 0.8880 now. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram rising, RSI 55 & rising. H1 ATR 0.0012, Daily ATR 0.0062.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Market Update – October 28 – USD Mixed, Stocks Down, Yield Curve Flattens, Oil tanks.
* USD (USDIndex 93.82) V. choppy session as Yield spreads narrowed to March 2020 lows (2&5yr higher, 10&30yr lower) – catalysts Inflation worries, surprise ending of QE, earlier rates hikes suggested from BOC. Stocks down, Oil sank. Durable Goods missed but not as bad as expected, Trade balance at record $96.3 bn.
* US Yields (10yr crashed into close at 1.529) lifted in Asian now 1.57%.
* Equities lower – USA500 -23 (-0.51%) at 4551 (DOW -0.75%) – Big movers – MSFT +4.21%, GOOGL + 4.96%, EXXON -2.6%, JPM -2.08% – USA500.F back to 4545. Asian equities weaker.
* USOil down on Inventories more than a double build – at 4.3m vs 2.0m & draw down last week of 400k barrels. Low $79.39 earlier from $83.70 on Monday.
* Gold recovers from $1783 low yesterday to breach $1800 now.
* FX markets – EURUSD 1.1600, Cable 1.3750, USDJPY now 113.70
ECB Preview: The central bank is widely expected to keep policy settings on hold today, after Lagarde signalled last month that the important decisions on the future of PEPP and possible changes to the older APP programmes won’t be taken until December. Still, markets will be hoping for some signals on the flavour of the discussion at the presser. The departure (by year end) of Bundesbank President Weidmann – the most hawkish and traditional central banker at the council – fueled speculation of a further strengthening of the older APP asset purchase programs. The ECB’s mandate will still have to be respected, but by keeping some flexibility for emergency situations the ECB could still send a dovish signal, even if it confirms in December that PEPP will end on time in March next year – as is widely expected.
European Open The December 10-year Bund future is up 4 ticks, but the 30-year future is moving higher long Gilt futures are rallying, as markets turn pessimistic on the growth outlook. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are managing slight gains though in line with US futures.
Today – German Unemployment, EZ Consumer Confidence, US GDP, PCE Prices Advance, Weekly Claims, ECB Policy Announcement and Press Conference Earnings- Airbus, AB InBev, Carlsberg, Evolution Gaming, Nokia, Saint Gobain; Shell; Amazon, Apple, Comcast, Merck, Caterpillar, Mastercard, Yum!, Shopify.
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDCAD (+0.37%) Recovering from BOC shock yesterday down to 0.8820 back to 0.8880 now. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram rising, RSI 55 & rising. H1 ATR 0.0012, Daily ATR 0.0062.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 27th October 2021.
Market Update – October 27 – Yields up,Robust USD.
* USD (USDIndex 93.84) – topped at 94 before retracing to 93.84 in Asia session.Wall Street rallied to more new highs on the USA500 and USA30, with the USA100 closing in on its peak, before gains faded. Solid earnings continued to underpin optimism, and stronger than expected confidence and housing data helped too. – rekindled Fed tightening fears.
* The long end of the market saw yields dip, overlooking the inflation jump as the longer term outlook is still benign. The 10-year Treasury yield has moved up 1.4 bp to 1.622%. Australia’s 10-year rate moved up and the 3-year jumped nearly 16 bp after core inflation came in higher than anticipated and reached a 6 year high in data for the third quarter.
* FT: Alphabet and Microsoft smash estimates with $110bn revenue haul (+33% from Q3 2020) – surge in cloud computing, and a strong rebound in digital advertising – all eyes on US open. Big misses from Robinhood, tanking its shares – closed at 40.09.
* Evergrande in focus again as authorities called on billionaire Hui Ka Yan to use his personal wealth to support China Evergrande Group. Chinese authorities called on companies to make “active preparations” to meet payments on offshore bonds. – sell-off in seven weeks for Chinese tech shares.
* German import price inflation hit 17.7% in September – The breakdown showed that energy prices remain the main driving factor, & that the shortage of natural gas and the spike in oil prices are not the only problems hitting supply chains, with supply shortages likely to keep prices elevated into next year.
* USOil steadied around $82 – $83.
* Gold dipped on robust USD, higher yields and ahead of central banks, at $1785.
* FX markets – EURUSD 1.1600, Cable bounced 1.3774, USDJPY – 114 from 114.30.
Today – US Durables and BoC rate decision and conference. Earnings: Thermo Fisher, Coca-Cola, McDonald’s, Sony, ServiceNow, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Boeing, GlaxoSmithKline, ADP, GM, Old Dominion, CME, Edwards Lifesciences, Norfolk Southern, Twilio, Ford, General Dynamics, KLA Corp., eBay.
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+40%) – spiked at 0.7535, faster MAs rising and RSI at 60. Fast MACD signal line & histogram keep rising, implying further rise in the short term.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Market Update – October 27 – Yields up,Robust USD.
* USD (USDIndex 93.84) – topped at 94 before retracing to 93.84 in Asia session.Wall Street rallied to more new highs on the USA500 and USA30, with the USA100 closing in on its peak, before gains faded. Solid earnings continued to underpin optimism, and stronger than expected confidence and housing data helped too. – rekindled Fed tightening fears.
* The long end of the market saw yields dip, overlooking the inflation jump as the longer term outlook is still benign. The 10-year Treasury yield has moved up 1.4 bp to 1.622%. Australia’s 10-year rate moved up and the 3-year jumped nearly 16 bp after core inflation came in higher than anticipated and reached a 6 year high in data for the third quarter.
* FT: Alphabet and Microsoft smash estimates with $110bn revenue haul (+33% from Q3 2020) – surge in cloud computing, and a strong rebound in digital advertising – all eyes on US open. Big misses from Robinhood, tanking its shares – closed at 40.09.
* Evergrande in focus again as authorities called on billionaire Hui Ka Yan to use his personal wealth to support China Evergrande Group. Chinese authorities called on companies to make “active preparations” to meet payments on offshore bonds. – sell-off in seven weeks for Chinese tech shares.
* German import price inflation hit 17.7% in September – The breakdown showed that energy prices remain the main driving factor, & that the shortage of natural gas and the spike in oil prices are not the only problems hitting supply chains, with supply shortages likely to keep prices elevated into next year.
* USOil steadied around $82 – $83.
* Gold dipped on robust USD, higher yields and ahead of central banks, at $1785.
* FX markets – EURUSD 1.1600, Cable bounced 1.3774, USDJPY – 114 from 114.30.
Today – US Durables and BoC rate decision and conference. Earnings: Thermo Fisher, Coca-Cola, McDonald’s, Sony, ServiceNow, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Boeing, GlaxoSmithKline, ADP, GM, Old Dominion, CME, Edwards Lifesciences, Norfolk Southern, Twilio, Ford, General Dynamics, KLA Corp., eBay.
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+40%) – spiked at 0.7535, faster MAs rising and RSI at 60. Fast MACD signal line & histogram keep rising, implying further rise in the short term.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 26th October 2021.
Market Update – October 26 – Bonds and stocks rallied to start the week.
* USD (USDIndex 93.89) – first rate hike was pushed up to June, with two quarter point tightenings priced in for 2022. Wall Street firmed too on the back of strong earnings with more new record highs on the USA500 and the USA30. Also underpinning sentiment are expectations that the fiscal package will make it out of Congress.
* Fed Chair Powell warned that inflation could be higher and more persistent than previously expected.
* US Yields – 10yr backed up 0.9 bp overnight to 1.64%.
* Equities mixed – USA100 paced the advances though, climbing 0.9% amid support from the slip in yields – 4582. USA100 bounced to 15602.
* Facebook reported mixed third quarter earnings on Monday, slightly missing revenue estimates but continuing to grow its user base. FB +2%.
* TSLA (+12.6%) joins the$1 trillion market cap group after 11 yrs – took AMZN 22 yrs. It’s bigger than the combined value of the next 9 biggest car makers but it sells less than 1% of world car sales. Elon Mush added $36BN to his net wealth yesterday alone. UBS beats on revenue – but sales are mixed.
* USOil holds up again on supply concerns & trades close to 7-year highs at $82.50.
* Gold spiked at $1808.
* FX markets – EURUSD 1.1600, Cable bounced 1.3778, USDJPY – reversed from 113.97 highs to PP at 113.86.
European Open The December 10-year Bund future is down -20 ticks at 168.45, underperforming versus US futures, although in cash markets the US 10-year rate is down from overnight highs, but still up 0.4 bp at 1.63%, as a 0.5% gain in the USA100 is leading US stock futures higher. GER30 and UK100 are posting gains of 0.2% and 0.1% at the moment, after a somewhat mixed session across Asia.
Today – Upcoming central bank decisions will remain in focus, with ECB and BoJ set to announce their decisions on Thursday. Earnings: Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, Eli Lilly, Novartis, Twitter, General electric, UBS, Robinhood. Today’s economic calendar will be of interest as well, and features October consumer confidence and September new home sales.
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.28%) Reversed overnight gains from 81.88 high tp currently 81.50 area. Faster MAs, RSI & Stochastic turned lower, while in contrast MACD signal line & histogram keep rising, implying to a potential limited pullback.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Market Update – October 26 – Bonds and stocks rallied to start the week.
* USD (USDIndex 93.89) – first rate hike was pushed up to June, with two quarter point tightenings priced in for 2022. Wall Street firmed too on the back of strong earnings with more new record highs on the USA500 and the USA30. Also underpinning sentiment are expectations that the fiscal package will make it out of Congress.
* Fed Chair Powell warned that inflation could be higher and more persistent than previously expected.
* US Yields – 10yr backed up 0.9 bp overnight to 1.64%.
* Equities mixed – USA100 paced the advances though, climbing 0.9% amid support from the slip in yields – 4582. USA100 bounced to 15602.
* Facebook reported mixed third quarter earnings on Monday, slightly missing revenue estimates but continuing to grow its user base. FB +2%.
* TSLA (+12.6%) joins the$1 trillion market cap group after 11 yrs – took AMZN 22 yrs. It’s bigger than the combined value of the next 9 biggest car makers but it sells less than 1% of world car sales. Elon Mush added $36BN to his net wealth yesterday alone. UBS beats on revenue – but sales are mixed.
* USOil holds up again on supply concerns & trades close to 7-year highs at $82.50.
* Gold spiked at $1808.
* FX markets – EURUSD 1.1600, Cable bounced 1.3778, USDJPY – reversed from 113.97 highs to PP at 113.86.
European Open The December 10-year Bund future is down -20 ticks at 168.45, underperforming versus US futures, although in cash markets the US 10-year rate is down from overnight highs, but still up 0.4 bp at 1.63%, as a 0.5% gain in the USA100 is leading US stock futures higher. GER30 and UK100 are posting gains of 0.2% and 0.1% at the moment, after a somewhat mixed session across Asia.
Today – Upcoming central bank decisions will remain in focus, with ECB and BoJ set to announce their decisions on Thursday. Earnings: Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, Eli Lilly, Novartis, Twitter, General electric, UBS, Robinhood. Today’s economic calendar will be of interest as well, and features October consumer confidence and September new home sales.
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.28%) Reversed overnight gains from 81.88 high tp currently 81.50 area. Faster MAs, RSI & Stochastic turned lower, while in contrast MACD signal line & histogram keep rising, implying to a potential limited pullback.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 25th October 2021.
Market Update – October 25 – Big Earnings Week Ahead, USD Cooler.
* USD (USDIndex 93.50) cools a tad & again tests 4-wk low (93.44). PMIs biased to the upside as Powell talked taper but no rate rises yet, Democrats narrowed their differences on the $3.5b infra bill & Yellen talked new taxes. Yields hold up, Equities mixed Friday, FUTS down. Big week for Earnings – Oil up again on supply concerns, gold back to $1800.
* Evergrande – Restarted 10 building projects over weekend, announced move away from real estate towards EV production.
* US Yields (10yr closed higher at 1.665) & – now 1.6500%
* Equities mixed – USA500 -4.88 (-0.11%) at 4544 (NASDAQ –0.82%) – Big movers – SNAP -26.59% & INTEL -11.68%; Big Earnings misses, FB -5.05%, GOOGL & AMZN –3%, TSLA +1.75% – USA500.F back to 4540. Asian equities weaker.
* USOil up again on supply concerns & trades close to 7-year highs at $83.00
* Gold very volatile Friday ($1782-$1813-$1793 on close) Back to pivot at $1800 now.
* FX markets – EURUSD 1.1650, Cable 1.3770, & USDJPY – (after a strong day on Friday (113.40 low) now at 113.60.
Week Ahead: Earnings from 5 x tech giants (FB today), plus major European Banks. Policy meetings from the ECB, BoJ & BOC, economic data includes US Q3 GDP & PCE. Plenty of CB speak, the UK Budget and month end too.
European Open December 10-yr Bund future up 23 ticks at 168.51. DAX & FTSE 100 futures up 0.15% & 0.25% respectively. Inflation risks remained in focus as oil prices continue to climb higher while bottlenecks in supply chains lead to rising cost pressures. The combination already weighed on manufacturing PMIs last week & are likely to also depress the German Ifo confidence reading today ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting. Fed Chair Powell signalled on Friday that inflation could stay higher for longer & that the taper is coming. ECB by contrast has pushed decisions on PEPP & APP back to the December meeting, which means this week’s ECB will be watched mainly for signals from Lagarde at the press conference.
Today – German IFO and BoE’s Tenreyro. Earnings: Michelin, Facebook, Restaurant Brands. HSBC surprises with 74% rise in Q3 profit and $2bln buyback.
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.45%) Recovering from a strong day run fro JPY last week. Up from 84.50 tlow on Friday to test 85.00 now. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram rising, RSI 51 & neutral. H1 ATR 0.189, Daily ATR 0.817.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Market Update – October 25 – Big Earnings Week Ahead, USD Cooler.
* USD (USDIndex 93.50) cools a tad & again tests 4-wk low (93.44). PMIs biased to the upside as Powell talked taper but no rate rises yet, Democrats narrowed their differences on the $3.5b infra bill & Yellen talked new taxes. Yields hold up, Equities mixed Friday, FUTS down. Big week for Earnings – Oil up again on supply concerns, gold back to $1800.
* Evergrande – Restarted 10 building projects over weekend, announced move away from real estate towards EV production.
* US Yields (10yr closed higher at 1.665) & – now 1.6500%
* Equities mixed – USA500 -4.88 (-0.11%) at 4544 (NASDAQ –0.82%) – Big movers – SNAP -26.59% & INTEL -11.68%; Big Earnings misses, FB -5.05%, GOOGL & AMZN –3%, TSLA +1.75% – USA500.F back to 4540. Asian equities weaker.
* USOil up again on supply concerns & trades close to 7-year highs at $83.00
* Gold very volatile Friday ($1782-$1813-$1793 on close) Back to pivot at $1800 now.
* FX markets – EURUSD 1.1650, Cable 1.3770, & USDJPY – (after a strong day on Friday (113.40 low) now at 113.60.
Week Ahead: Earnings from 5 x tech giants (FB today), plus major European Banks. Policy meetings from the ECB, BoJ & BOC, economic data includes US Q3 GDP & PCE. Plenty of CB speak, the UK Budget and month end too.
European Open December 10-yr Bund future up 23 ticks at 168.51. DAX & FTSE 100 futures up 0.15% & 0.25% respectively. Inflation risks remained in focus as oil prices continue to climb higher while bottlenecks in supply chains lead to rising cost pressures. The combination already weighed on manufacturing PMIs last week & are likely to also depress the German Ifo confidence reading today ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting. Fed Chair Powell signalled on Friday that inflation could stay higher for longer & that the taper is coming. ECB by contrast has pushed decisions on PEPP & APP back to the December meeting, which means this week’s ECB will be watched mainly for signals from Lagarde at the press conference.
Today – German IFO and BoE’s Tenreyro. Earnings: Michelin, Facebook, Restaurant Brands. HSBC surprises with 74% rise in Q3 profit and $2bln buyback.
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.45%) Recovering from a strong day run fro JPY last week. Up from 84.50 tlow on Friday to test 85.00 now. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram rising, RSI 51 & neutral. H1 ATR 0.189, Daily ATR 0.817.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 21st October 2021.
Market Update – October 21 – Stocks & USD slip on big Earnings Day.
* USD (USDIndex 93.55) cools a tad and again tests 2-week low (93.47) Yields stronger again, Equities closed up, but FUTS are down (Nikkei -2% on stronger YEN and Yuan). Big day for Earnings – TESLA beat but revenue numbers disappointed some. Oil up on drawdown.
* Evergrande – Bad News $1.7bn sale of 51% of HK unit to Hopson OFF, $1.7bn sale of HK HQ OFF, $83.5m coupon default triggers tomorrow. Good News $260m bond coupon, extended by 3 mths
* US Yields (10yr closed higher at 1.63) & – now 1.6533%
* Equities moved ground higher USA500 +16 (+0.74%) at 4536 (NASDAQ –0.05%) – Big movers – Verizon +2.41% & ABBT +3.3% (PayPal – 4.91%) – USA500.F back to 4500. Asian equities weaker. New VIX contract at +1.49% at 19.60
* USOil up on drawdown n strong demand at $82.00 after EIA inventories showed -400K vs build of 2.1m
* Gold holds at 4-day highs – $1785
* FX markets – a recovering USD – EURUSD 1.1646, Cable down from 1.3830+ to 1.3800, & USDJPY – off 4-year highs and pivots at 114.00.
European Open The December 10-year Bund future is down -16 ticks, US futures are also in the red. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are both down -0.45 and US futures are also in the red, with the NASDAQ underperforming again, after already closing slightly lower yesterday. Indices remain at high levels, but tapering concerns, the global energy rout and supply chain concerns are capping the outlook for global growth. Markets will continue to watch earnings reports and central bank comments, especially in the UK where officials clearly are laying the ground for an early lift off. Meanwhile the announcement of Weidmann’s departure has raised hopes that the ECB will push even more to circumvent the no-bailout clause permanently – after the end of PEPP, which already helped BTPs to outperform yesterday.
Today – US Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Business Index, Existing Home Sales, EZ Consumer Confidence, EU Council Meeting, Fed’s Daly, Waller, RBA’s Lowe, Earnings: AT&T, Intel, American Airlines, Southwest Airlines, ABB, (bottleneck problems) Vivendi, Hermes, (beat) Pernod Ricard,(beat) Barclays, (Revenue big beat) Unilever (Sales miss).
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.50%) Rejection of 86.25 this morning as Yen lifts after a very weak October. Faster MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line dips and & histogram slips significantly lower, RSI 40.00 off OS level, H1 ATR 0.189, Daily ATR 0.817.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Market Update – October 21 – Stocks & USD slip on big Earnings Day.
* USD (USDIndex 93.55) cools a tad and again tests 2-week low (93.47) Yields stronger again, Equities closed up, but FUTS are down (Nikkei -2% on stronger YEN and Yuan). Big day for Earnings – TESLA beat but revenue numbers disappointed some. Oil up on drawdown.
* Evergrande – Bad News $1.7bn sale of 51% of HK unit to Hopson OFF, $1.7bn sale of HK HQ OFF, $83.5m coupon default triggers tomorrow. Good News $260m bond coupon, extended by 3 mths
* US Yields (10yr closed higher at 1.63) & – now 1.6533%
* Equities moved ground higher USA500 +16 (+0.74%) at 4536 (NASDAQ –0.05%) – Big movers – Verizon +2.41% & ABBT +3.3% (PayPal – 4.91%) – USA500.F back to 4500. Asian equities weaker. New VIX contract at +1.49% at 19.60
* USOil up on drawdown n strong demand at $82.00 after EIA inventories showed -400K vs build of 2.1m
* Gold holds at 4-day highs – $1785
* FX markets – a recovering USD – EURUSD 1.1646, Cable down from 1.3830+ to 1.3800, & USDJPY – off 4-year highs and pivots at 114.00.
European Open The December 10-year Bund future is down -16 ticks, US futures are also in the red. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are both down -0.45 and US futures are also in the red, with the NASDAQ underperforming again, after already closing slightly lower yesterday. Indices remain at high levels, but tapering concerns, the global energy rout and supply chain concerns are capping the outlook for global growth. Markets will continue to watch earnings reports and central bank comments, especially in the UK where officials clearly are laying the ground for an early lift off. Meanwhile the announcement of Weidmann’s departure has raised hopes that the ECB will push even more to circumvent the no-bailout clause permanently – after the end of PEPP, which already helped BTPs to outperform yesterday.
Today – US Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Business Index, Existing Home Sales, EZ Consumer Confidence, EU Council Meeting, Fed’s Daly, Waller, RBA’s Lowe, Earnings: AT&T, Intel, American Airlines, Southwest Airlines, ABB, (bottleneck problems) Vivendi, Hermes, (beat) Pernod Ricard,(beat) Barclays, (Revenue big beat) Unilever (Sales miss).
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.50%) Rejection of 86.25 this morning as Yen lifts after a very weak October. Faster MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line dips and & histogram slips significantly lower, RSI 40.00 off OS level, H1 ATR 0.189, Daily ATR 0.817.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 20th October 2021.
Market Update – October 20 – USD bounces from 2-week low, Stocks & Yields higher.
* USD (USDIndex 93.70) recovers from test of 2-week low (93.47) Yields stronger, Equities closed strongly on good Earnings, Netflix beat big time (Subs 4.38m vs 3.86m. – globally now 213.6m) Squid Game watched in 142 million households in 94 countries. Biden expects a deal on infra budget, Chinese housing prices slow, and NK fired more missiles (non-ballistic today) into S. China Sea.
* US Yields (10yr closed higher at 1.6350) & touched 1.662 earlier – now 1.6495%
* Equities moved higher gaining momentum USA500 +33 (+0.74%) at 4519 (NASDAQ +0.71%) – Big movers – J&J +2.34% & APPL 1.18% – USA500.F higher into 4503. Asian equities higher (Nikkei +0.76%) VIX closed down again at 15.57 (a new 8-week low – VXN – (which measures Nasdaq volatility) – at lowest since February 2020)
* USOil down from 7-yr high, at $83.00 after private inventories – trades at $81.00
* Gold holds at $1775 now from yesterday’s high of $1785 and low of $1767.
* FX markets – a recovering USD has – EURUSD 1.1640, Cable down from 1.3800+ after CPI data at 1.3785 & a weaker YEN, USDJPY – 4-year highs – 114.70.
Overnight – UK CPI a tick weaker than expected (3.1% vs 3.2%) PPI in line. German PPI much stronger than expected @ 2.3% vs 1.1%.
European Open – The December 10-year bund future is down 35 ticks, underperforming versus Treasury futures. Yields moved broadly higher across Europe yesterday and while ECB officials are doing their best to keep rate hike speculation at bay, they are fighting an uphill battle, especially as the BoE is preparing for an early lift off on rates. The surprise misses for UK CPI could dull the expectation.
Today – EZ Final CPI, Canadian CPI, ECB’s Elderson, Fed’s Bullard, Earnings – Verizon, Tesla, IBM, Abbot, AMSL, Nestle (already out – a big beat especially for Pet food Division)
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDCHF (+0.40%) 5th consecutive day higher today (from 0.6425) breached 0.6600 earlier, and testing 0.6630 now. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram trending higher, RSI 65.00 OB but still moving higher, H1 ATR 0.0008, Daily ATR 0.0054.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Market Update – October 20 – USD bounces from 2-week low, Stocks & Yields higher.
* USD (USDIndex 93.70) recovers from test of 2-week low (93.47) Yields stronger, Equities closed strongly on good Earnings, Netflix beat big time (Subs 4.38m vs 3.86m. – globally now 213.6m) Squid Game watched in 142 million households in 94 countries. Biden expects a deal on infra budget, Chinese housing prices slow, and NK fired more missiles (non-ballistic today) into S. China Sea.
* US Yields (10yr closed higher at 1.6350) & touched 1.662 earlier – now 1.6495%
* Equities moved higher gaining momentum USA500 +33 (+0.74%) at 4519 (NASDAQ +0.71%) – Big movers – J&J +2.34% & APPL 1.18% – USA500.F higher into 4503. Asian equities higher (Nikkei +0.76%) VIX closed down again at 15.57 (a new 8-week low – VXN – (which measures Nasdaq volatility) – at lowest since February 2020)
* USOil down from 7-yr high, at $83.00 after private inventories – trades at $81.00
* Gold holds at $1775 now from yesterday’s high of $1785 and low of $1767.
* FX markets – a recovering USD has – EURUSD 1.1640, Cable down from 1.3800+ after CPI data at 1.3785 & a weaker YEN, USDJPY – 4-year highs – 114.70.
Overnight – UK CPI a tick weaker than expected (3.1% vs 3.2%) PPI in line. German PPI much stronger than expected @ 2.3% vs 1.1%.
European Open – The December 10-year bund future is down 35 ticks, underperforming versus Treasury futures. Yields moved broadly higher across Europe yesterday and while ECB officials are doing their best to keep rate hike speculation at bay, they are fighting an uphill battle, especially as the BoE is preparing for an early lift off on rates. The surprise misses for UK CPI could dull the expectation.
Today – EZ Final CPI, Canadian CPI, ECB’s Elderson, Fed’s Bullard, Earnings – Verizon, Tesla, IBM, Abbot, AMSL, Nestle (already out – a big beat especially for Pet food Division)
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDCHF (+0.40%) 5th consecutive day higher today (from 0.6425) breached 0.6600 earlier, and testing 0.6630 now. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram trending higher, RSI 65.00 OB but still moving higher, H1 ATR 0.0008, Daily ATR 0.0054.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 19th October 2021.
Market Update – October 19 – USD & Yields Cool, Tech Recovers.
* USD (USDIndex 93.60) slips -0.6% (-1.0% from last week’s highs) Weak US Industrial production. Yields also slipped and Stocks moved higher led by big tech. Commodities stronger lifting AUD & NZD (RBNZ to move +50bps Nov.24?). APPLE launched new Mac Books with new self-built powerful chips, Bezos, “may have lied to Congress”, FB to recruit 10k in EU to build “Metaverse”. Japanese General Election 31/10, confirmed. NK fire more ballistics into S. China Sea.
* Evergrande – sentiment lifts a tad – they will pay some onshore coupons today.
* US Yields (10yr closed 1.584%) down from 1.624% highs, trades at 1.576%
* Equities moved higher but lost momentum USA500 +15 (+0.34%) at 4486 (NASDAQ +0.84%) – Big movers – TSLA +3.21% & FB +3.26%. USA500.F higher into 4483. Asian equities higher (Nikkei +0.56%) VIX closed down again at 16.77 (new 8 week low) – trades weaker at 16.50 now.
* USOil back at yet another new 7-yr high, trades at $83.00.
* Gold lifts on weaker USD & lower yields up to $1777 now from yesterday’s test of the key $1760 support level.
* FX markets – a weaker USD has – EURUSD 1.1655 Cable at 4-week highs 1.3775 (Bailey up again today) & USDJPY holds 114.00.
European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is fractionally higher, as are US futures. Eurozone peripherals are also vulnerable amid the ebb on flow of opinions on how to strengthen and maintain flexibility in existing asset purchase programs after the scheduled end of PEPP. Against that background the flood of BoE and ECB speakers today will be watched very carefully, especially as the data calendar is pretty empty. Stock market sentiment strengthened overnight and DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.2% and 0.1% respectively, alongside broad gains in U.S. futures.
Today – US Building Permits & Housing Starts, ECB’s Elderson, Panetta, Lane, BoE’s Bailey, Fed’s Harker, Daly, Bostic, Waller. Earnings – Johnson & Johnson, Phillip Morris, P&G, Netflix, Halliburton, United Airlines, Danone, Ericsson (out already a big beat), Kering.
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.28%) 5th consecutive day higher today breached 0.7100 earlier, and testing 0.7150 now. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram trending higher, RSI 81.00 OB but still moving higher, Stochs. 96 and OB. H1 ATR 0.0011, Daily ATR 0.0062.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Market Update – October 19 – USD & Yields Cool, Tech Recovers.
* USD (USDIndex 93.60) slips -0.6% (-1.0% from last week’s highs) Weak US Industrial production. Yields also slipped and Stocks moved higher led by big tech. Commodities stronger lifting AUD & NZD (RBNZ to move +50bps Nov.24?). APPLE launched new Mac Books with new self-built powerful chips, Bezos, “may have lied to Congress”, FB to recruit 10k in EU to build “Metaverse”. Japanese General Election 31/10, confirmed. NK fire more ballistics into S. China Sea.
* Evergrande – sentiment lifts a tad – they will pay some onshore coupons today.
* US Yields (10yr closed 1.584%) down from 1.624% highs, trades at 1.576%
* Equities moved higher but lost momentum USA500 +15 (+0.34%) at 4486 (NASDAQ +0.84%) – Big movers – TSLA +3.21% & FB +3.26%. USA500.F higher into 4483. Asian equities higher (Nikkei +0.56%) VIX closed down again at 16.77 (new 8 week low) – trades weaker at 16.50 now.
* USOil back at yet another new 7-yr high, trades at $83.00.
* Gold lifts on weaker USD & lower yields up to $1777 now from yesterday’s test of the key $1760 support level.
* FX markets – a weaker USD has – EURUSD 1.1655 Cable at 4-week highs 1.3775 (Bailey up again today) & USDJPY holds 114.00.
European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is fractionally higher, as are US futures. Eurozone peripherals are also vulnerable amid the ebb on flow of opinions on how to strengthen and maintain flexibility in existing asset purchase programs after the scheduled end of PEPP. Against that background the flood of BoE and ECB speakers today will be watched very carefully, especially as the data calendar is pretty empty. Stock market sentiment strengthened overnight and DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.2% and 0.1% respectively, alongside broad gains in U.S. futures.
Today – US Building Permits & Housing Starts, ECB’s Elderson, Panetta, Lane, BoE’s Bailey, Fed’s Harker, Daly, Bostic, Waller. Earnings – Johnson & Johnson, Phillip Morris, P&G, Netflix, Halliburton, United Airlines, Danone, Ericsson (out already a big beat), Kering.
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.28%) 5th consecutive day higher today breached 0.7100 earlier, and testing 0.7150 now. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram trending higher, RSI 81.00 OB but still moving higher, Stochs. 96 and OB. H1 ATR 0.0011, Daily ATR 0.0062.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 18th October 2021.
Market Update – October 18 – China Slows – Risk-Off to start the week.
* USD (USDIndex 94.10) holds at highs, Weak data from China (Q3 GDP 0.2% vs 0.5% & Ind. Production 3.1% vs 4.5%) Big misses, Risk-Off tone to start the week. Oil continues to move higher testing key technicals – Yields the driver (again) US 10yr at 1.6%. NZD moves higher – (CPI 2.2% vs. 1.4% & Services PMI’s 46.9 vs 35.6) Auckland lockdown extended.
* PBOC breaks silence on Evergrande -“can contain contagion”: Risks are (1) other Real Estate Co’s & (2) Wider Economy.
* US Yields (10yr closed 1.576%) now at 1.60% in Asian trades.
* Equities moved strongly higher into close. USA500 +33.0 (+0.75%) at 4471 (Dow +1.0%) – Big movers AMZN & MasterCard +3.3%, TSLA +3.0% & BAC +2.8%, FB -1.15%, MRNA -2.31%. USA500.F dips to 4446. Asian equities lower on China news. VIX closed -2.56% at 17.00 (8 week low) – trades up at 17.35 now.
* USOil back to test new 7-yr highs, trades at $82.75.
* Gold slipped on higher yields down to $1763 now from Thursday’s test of $1800.
* FX markets USD remains bid – EURUSD 1.1573 Cable holds 1.3720 (Bailey ‘will have to act’ to curb inflation) & USDJPY higher again at 114.25.
Week Ahead – Inflation and PMI data dominate the economic releases, Earnings highlights include: Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, Netflix, (Squid Games to add $900m in Revenue?) Verizon, IBM, Intel, Tesla, (Musk joined 200+ VW exec’s over weekend) & AT&T.
European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is down -53 ticks at 169.05, underperforming versus Treasury futures and pointing to another sharp rise in cash yields at the start of the session. Comments from BoE’s Bailey, will add to pressure in the European part of the session. UK money markets are increasingly pricing in a move from the BoE this year, which is leaving bond market traders worrying about stagflation risks. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are currently down -0.1%.
Today – US Industrial Production, Fed’s Quarles, BoC’s Lane, & BOE’s Cunliffe.
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDCAD (+0.28%) Rallied from 1.2335 lows on Friday to test 1.2400 now. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram trending higher & over 0 line, RSI 64.00 & moving higher, Stochs. 95 and OB. H1 ATR 0.0012, Daily ATR 0.00826.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Market Update – October 18 – China Slows – Risk-Off to start the week.
* USD (USDIndex 94.10) holds at highs, Weak data from China (Q3 GDP 0.2% vs 0.5% & Ind. Production 3.1% vs 4.5%) Big misses, Risk-Off tone to start the week. Oil continues to move higher testing key technicals – Yields the driver (again) US 10yr at 1.6%. NZD moves higher – (CPI 2.2% vs. 1.4% & Services PMI’s 46.9 vs 35.6) Auckland lockdown extended.
* PBOC breaks silence on Evergrande -“can contain contagion”: Risks are (1) other Real Estate Co’s & (2) Wider Economy.
* US Yields (10yr closed 1.576%) now at 1.60% in Asian trades.
* Equities moved strongly higher into close. USA500 +33.0 (+0.75%) at 4471 (Dow +1.0%) – Big movers AMZN & MasterCard +3.3%, TSLA +3.0% & BAC +2.8%, FB -1.15%, MRNA -2.31%. USA500.F dips to 4446. Asian equities lower on China news. VIX closed -2.56% at 17.00 (8 week low) – trades up at 17.35 now.
* USOil back to test new 7-yr highs, trades at $82.75.
* Gold slipped on higher yields down to $1763 now from Thursday’s test of $1800.
* FX markets USD remains bid – EURUSD 1.1573 Cable holds 1.3720 (Bailey ‘will have to act’ to curb inflation) & USDJPY higher again at 114.25.
Week Ahead – Inflation and PMI data dominate the economic releases, Earnings highlights include: Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, Netflix, (Squid Games to add $900m in Revenue?) Verizon, IBM, Intel, Tesla, (Musk joined 200+ VW exec’s over weekend) & AT&T.
European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is down -53 ticks at 169.05, underperforming versus Treasury futures and pointing to another sharp rise in cash yields at the start of the session. Comments from BoE’s Bailey, will add to pressure in the European part of the session. UK money markets are increasingly pricing in a move from the BoE this year, which is leaving bond market traders worrying about stagflation risks. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are currently down -0.1%.
Today – US Industrial Production, Fed’s Quarles, BoC’s Lane, & BOE’s Cunliffe.
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDCAD (+0.28%) Rallied from 1.2335 lows on Friday to test 1.2400 now. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram trending higher & over 0 line, RSI 64.00 & moving higher, Stochs. 95 and OB. H1 ATR 0.0012, Daily ATR 0.00826.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 15th October 2021.
Market Update – October 15 – Stronger equities dampened the safe-havens!
* Q3 earnings season has gotten off to a strong start, with big banks largely shooting the lights out on revenues and earnings.
* Incoming data was constructive as well, with jobless claims coming in at pandemic lows, while the rate of PPI growth slowed. All 11 S&P sectors are higher.
* Bulls are in control, both in the bond market and on Wall Street. – Overlooked the hawkish Fed implications from the record strength in PPI and the lowest claims readings since before the pandemic.
* Yields declined and Treasuries are in the green on short covering and dip buying, recovering from the recent aggressive selloff. US Treasury yield has lifted 1.8 bp to 1.53%.
* China: will loosen restrictions on home loans and boost lending & bank added enough medium term funds to keep liquidity in the system steady.
* Equities up. JPN225 managed a 1.6% gain and US futures are also higher, led by a 0.4% rise in the USA100.
* Oil lifted above $81.99. – Prices quickly backed up after a larger than expected stock build in the US.
* Improved market sentiment, which has lifted global stocks, commodity prices and bond yields, is also weighing on the safe-haven Dollar.
* FX markets – USD dropped, Yen declined.
* EURUSD retests 1.1600 mark, Cable at 1.3689, USDJPY touched 114.16.
European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is slightly higher, US Treasury futures slightly in the red, as stock futures move higher in both Europe and North America after a good session for equities across Asia overnight. Market sentiment improved and GER30 and UK100 futures are currently up 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, while a 0.4% rise in the USA100 is leading US futures. EGB yields had dropped back markedly yesterday, but in the UK money markets are still bracing for an earlier than expected lift off on rates, which ironically is actually helping long rates to come down.
Today – Today’s data calendar is unlikely to change the overall picture, with only eurozone trade data for August and some final HICP readings on the agenda.
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.60%) Breached 80.55. Up for 7 days in a row. Currently faster MAs keep pointing up, MACD signal line is at 0 & histogram trending higher. RSI at 82 & Stochastic at 94 but both sloping down, all indicating further upwards move in the medium term but possible pullback in the short term. H1 ATR 0.123, Daily ATR 0.810.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Market Update – October 15 – Stronger equities dampened the safe-havens!
* Q3 earnings season has gotten off to a strong start, with big banks largely shooting the lights out on revenues and earnings.
* Incoming data was constructive as well, with jobless claims coming in at pandemic lows, while the rate of PPI growth slowed. All 11 S&P sectors are higher.
* Bulls are in control, both in the bond market and on Wall Street. – Overlooked the hawkish Fed implications from the record strength in PPI and the lowest claims readings since before the pandemic.
* Yields declined and Treasuries are in the green on short covering and dip buying, recovering from the recent aggressive selloff. US Treasury yield has lifted 1.8 bp to 1.53%.
* China: will loosen restrictions on home loans and boost lending & bank added enough medium term funds to keep liquidity in the system steady.
* Equities up. JPN225 managed a 1.6% gain and US futures are also higher, led by a 0.4% rise in the USA100.
* Oil lifted above $81.99. – Prices quickly backed up after a larger than expected stock build in the US.
* Improved market sentiment, which has lifted global stocks, commodity prices and bond yields, is also weighing on the safe-haven Dollar.
* FX markets – USD dropped, Yen declined.
* EURUSD retests 1.1600 mark, Cable at 1.3689, USDJPY touched 114.16.
European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is slightly higher, US Treasury futures slightly in the red, as stock futures move higher in both Europe and North America after a good session for equities across Asia overnight. Market sentiment improved and GER30 and UK100 futures are currently up 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, while a 0.4% rise in the USA100 is leading US futures. EGB yields had dropped back markedly yesterday, but in the UK money markets are still bracing for an earlier than expected lift off on rates, which ironically is actually helping long rates to come down.
Today – Today’s data calendar is unlikely to change the overall picture, with only eurozone trade data for August and some final HICP readings on the agenda.
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.60%) Breached 80.55. Up for 7 days in a row. Currently faster MAs keep pointing up, MACD signal line is at 0 & histogram trending higher. RSI at 82 & Stochastic at 94 but both sloping down, all indicating further upwards move in the medium term but possible pullback in the short term. H1 ATR 0.123, Daily ATR 0.810.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 14th October 2021.
Market Update – October 14.
* Traders continue to mull recovery hopes and central bank policies, after the Fed minutes yesterday signaled tapering could start as early as November.
* The market is starting to price in a Fed rate liftoff into September 2022 from December previously.
* BoE officials no longer seem concerned that the spike in inflation will be temporary and markets are concerned that an early move would stifle a still fragile recovery, especially as Brexit Britain is facing severe delivery problems and shortages of staff in key areas that could have longer lasting economic consequences.
* Yields: US Treasury yield has lifted 1.6 bp to 1.55%. A stellar, record-setting 30-year bond reopening evinced continued strong demand for yields.
* China: Record high PPI number & a slight drop in headline CPI readings.
* Equities up. JPN225 managed a 1.4% gain. GER30 and UK100 futures are still up 0.4% and 0.5% respectively and US futures are also higher, led by a 0.5% rise in the USA100, which already outperformed yesterday.
* Earnings season got off to a very strong start after a big beat by JPMorgan.
* Oil lifted above $81.00.
* FX markets – USD dropped, Yen corrected.
* EURUSD is eyeing the 1.1400 mark, Cablerebounds to 1.3668, USDJPY 113.30–113.60.
* TRYslumps over Central banks shuffle – USDTRY at 18. Erdogan dismissed three central bank monetary policy committee members and named replacements.
European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is down -10 ticks and US futures are also lower, while in cash markets the US Treasury yield has lifted 1.6 bp to 1.55%. EGBs rallied yesterday, led by Gilts, although yields closed up from session lows yesterday, as the move was mainly fueled by stagflation concerns with money markets increasingly pricing in an early liftoff on rates, especially in the UK.
Today – Today’s data calendar includes US PPI and US jobless claims.
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.70%) Breached 79.45. Currently faster MAs keep pointing up, MACD signal line is at 0 & histogram trending higher. RSI 73 and sloping up, all indicating further upwards move. H1 ATR 0.107, Daily ATR 0.748.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Market Update – October 14.
* Traders continue to mull recovery hopes and central bank policies, after the Fed minutes yesterday signaled tapering could start as early as November.
* The market is starting to price in a Fed rate liftoff into September 2022 from December previously.
* BoE officials no longer seem concerned that the spike in inflation will be temporary and markets are concerned that an early move would stifle a still fragile recovery, especially as Brexit Britain is facing severe delivery problems and shortages of staff in key areas that could have longer lasting economic consequences.
* Yields: US Treasury yield has lifted 1.6 bp to 1.55%. A stellar, record-setting 30-year bond reopening evinced continued strong demand for yields.
* China: Record high PPI number & a slight drop in headline CPI readings.
* Equities up. JPN225 managed a 1.4% gain. GER30 and UK100 futures are still up 0.4% and 0.5% respectively and US futures are also higher, led by a 0.5% rise in the USA100, which already outperformed yesterday.
* Earnings season got off to a very strong start after a big beat by JPMorgan.
* Oil lifted above $81.00.
* FX markets – USD dropped, Yen corrected.
* EURUSD is eyeing the 1.1400 mark, Cablerebounds to 1.3668, USDJPY 113.30–113.60.
* TRYslumps over Central banks shuffle – USDTRY at 18. Erdogan dismissed three central bank monetary policy committee members and named replacements.
European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is down -10 ticks and US futures are also lower, while in cash markets the US Treasury yield has lifted 1.6 bp to 1.55%. EGBs rallied yesterday, led by Gilts, although yields closed up from session lows yesterday, as the move was mainly fueled by stagflation concerns with money markets increasingly pricing in an early liftoff on rates, especially in the UK.
Today – Today’s data calendar includes US PPI and US jobless claims.
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.70%) Breached 79.45. Currently faster MAs keep pointing up, MACD signal line is at 0 & histogram trending higher. RSI 73 and sloping up, all indicating further upwards move. H1 ATR 0.107, Daily ATR 0.748.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 13th October 2021.
Market Update – October 13 – All eyes on CPI.
* Supply chain disruptions are increasingly hitting production targets and adding to stagflation concerns.
* The bond market is overlooking Wednesday’s CPI data and the prospects for a hot report and the FOMC Minutes tonight.
* Global Yields grab helped underpin the long end- reflected in the solid 10-year auction results, while the 3-year evinced weaker metrics. The 2-year is 3.2 bps higher at 0.350%, the cheapest since mid-March 2020.
* Equities down. JPN225 dropped back -0.2%, the ASX declined -0.1%, although other markets looked somewhat better. Hong Kong remained closed due to weather warnings, but mainland China bourses outperformed amid strong export growth and stabilising sentiment on property developers. Japan’s machinery orders unexpectedly contracted and sentiment hit a 6-month low.
* Oil steadied in the $79.00-$81.00 area.
* FX markets – USD eased against majors, GBP strengthened
* EURUSD is ranging 1.1522-1.1560, Cable rebounds to 1.3614, USDJPY 113.30-113.60.
European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is down 6 ticks, but the 30-year has rallied while US futures are little changed. GER30 and UK100 futures meanwhile are up 0.2% and down -0.1% respectively, with US futures also lower, after a cautious session across Asia overnight. China angst eased somewhat, but elevated energy prices, supply chain disruptions and delivery problems are keeping stagflation fears alive.
Today – US inflation data will be in focus today, as markets assess tapering risks. The EU calendar includes monthly GDP numbers and production data for the UK as well as final German inflation readings for September.
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.43%) Rebounded from 1.8435 to 1.8557. Currently faster MAs started pulling back, MACD signal line is at 0 & histogram trending higher. RSI 43 and slowing down, all indicating a correction after rally. H1 ATR 0.00184, Daily ATR 0.01096.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Market Update – October 13 – All eyes on CPI.
* Supply chain disruptions are increasingly hitting production targets and adding to stagflation concerns.
* The bond market is overlooking Wednesday’s CPI data and the prospects for a hot report and the FOMC Minutes tonight.
* Global Yields grab helped underpin the long end- reflected in the solid 10-year auction results, while the 3-year evinced weaker metrics. The 2-year is 3.2 bps higher at 0.350%, the cheapest since mid-March 2020.
* Equities down. JPN225 dropped back -0.2%, the ASX declined -0.1%, although other markets looked somewhat better. Hong Kong remained closed due to weather warnings, but mainland China bourses outperformed amid strong export growth and stabilising sentiment on property developers. Japan’s machinery orders unexpectedly contracted and sentiment hit a 6-month low.
* Oil steadied in the $79.00-$81.00 area.
* FX markets – USD eased against majors, GBP strengthened
* EURUSD is ranging 1.1522-1.1560, Cable rebounds to 1.3614, USDJPY 113.30-113.60.
European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is down 6 ticks, but the 30-year has rallied while US futures are little changed. GER30 and UK100 futures meanwhile are up 0.2% and down -0.1% respectively, with US futures also lower, after a cautious session across Asia overnight. China angst eased somewhat, but elevated energy prices, supply chain disruptions and delivery problems are keeping stagflation fears alive.
Today – US inflation data will be in focus today, as markets assess tapering risks. The EU calendar includes monthly GDP numbers and production data for the UK as well as final German inflation readings for September.
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.43%) Rebounded from 1.8435 to 1.8557. Currently faster MAs started pulling back, MACD signal line is at 0 & histogram trending higher. RSI 43 and slowing down, all indicating a correction after rally. H1 ATR 0.00184, Daily ATR 0.01096.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 12th October 2021.
Market Update – October 12 – Risk off sentiment dominates!
LONDON
* Risk off sentiment dominated the Asian part of the session & European bourses are also set to open lower.
* GER30 and UK100 futures currently down -0.6%. US futures are posting losses of -0.3 to -0.4% as markets fret about rising yields, the spike in oil prices and stagflation risks amid ongoing supply chain constraints that are increasingly keeping a lid on the manufacturing outlook
* Equities down. JPN225 -0.9%, ASX corrected -0.3%.
* Oil prices continued to rise to the highest since 2014 currently $81.06. UKOIL to $84.58 – adding to inflationary pressures in recovering economies.
* Gold prices could reach $1,850 before retreating in 2022 – ANZ Research.
* US Yields held above 0.6%, yields continued to rise in Australia and New Zealand, although China’s 10-year rate dropped back slightly.
* News: South Korea’s central bank left its Base Rate unchanged, as expected, while in data Japan’s PPI rate jumped higher, and the UK’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.5% in the 3 months to August.
* FX markets – USD and GBP remain bid, Yen splits– Sterling is benefiting from rate hike speculation.
* EURUSD, 1.1565, Cable stuck at 1.3600, USDJPY broken 113!
European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is up 10 ticks, US futures are also slightly higher, while in cash markets the US Treasury yield is holding above the 1.6% mark. Central banks seem split on how to react and while the BoE is clearly laying the ground for an earlier than expected lift off on rates, ECB officials continue to do their best to keep rate hike speculation under control. The latter is keeping a lid on the EUR, while so far Sterling is benefiting from rate hike speculation, although that could change if the focus turns to growing supply chain and delivery disruptions and the impact of the spike in gas prices, which is also causing problems in areas such as food and drink production.
Today – German ZEW Sentiment
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDJPY (-0.14%) Retreating from 113.47 and currently back to 113 border. Faster MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram trending lower but well above 0, RSI 43 slowing down, all indicating a correction after OB condition. H1 ATR 0.123, Daily ATR 0.669.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Market Update – October 12 – Risk off sentiment dominates!
LONDON
* Risk off sentiment dominated the Asian part of the session & European bourses are also set to open lower.
* GER30 and UK100 futures currently down -0.6%. US futures are posting losses of -0.3 to -0.4% as markets fret about rising yields, the spike in oil prices and stagflation risks amid ongoing supply chain constraints that are increasingly keeping a lid on the manufacturing outlook
* Equities down. JPN225 -0.9%, ASX corrected -0.3%.
* Oil prices continued to rise to the highest since 2014 currently $81.06. UKOIL to $84.58 – adding to inflationary pressures in recovering economies.
* Gold prices could reach $1,850 before retreating in 2022 – ANZ Research.
* US Yields held above 0.6%, yields continued to rise in Australia and New Zealand, although China’s 10-year rate dropped back slightly.
* News: South Korea’s central bank left its Base Rate unchanged, as expected, while in data Japan’s PPI rate jumped higher, and the UK’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.5% in the 3 months to August.
* FX markets – USD and GBP remain bid, Yen splits– Sterling is benefiting from rate hike speculation.
* EURUSD, 1.1565, Cable stuck at 1.3600, USDJPY broken 113!
European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is up 10 ticks, US futures are also slightly higher, while in cash markets the US Treasury yield is holding above the 1.6% mark. Central banks seem split on how to react and while the BoE is clearly laying the ground for an earlier than expected lift off on rates, ECB officials continue to do their best to keep rate hike speculation under control. The latter is keeping a lid on the EUR, while so far Sterling is benefiting from rate hike speculation, although that could change if the focus turns to growing supply chain and delivery disruptions and the impact of the spike in gas prices, which is also causing problems in areas such as food and drink production.
Today – German ZEW Sentiment
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDJPY (-0.14%) Retreating from 113.47 and currently back to 113 border. Faster MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram trending lower but well above 0, RSI 43 slowing down, all indicating a correction after OB condition. H1 ATR 0.123, Daily ATR 0.669.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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