How accurate is the fee estimation in Electrum? - page 2.

hosseinimr93

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Quote from: ranochigo on September 21, 2020, 11:25:18 AM

Nope. Each block theoractically can accommodate 1MB of transaction.

If I'm not wrong, theoretically the size of every block can be up to 4 MB.
The block size cannot be bigger than 1 MB if all transactions in the block include only legacy addresses. If Segwit addresses are used, the block size can be bigger than 1 MB.
Please correct me if I am wrong.

Melloiga

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Right, this is all very bad. I sent a tx with proper fee but the block got late in coming and during that time people sent txs with more fees and so there txs got included in the next block and not mine. This isn't fair at all.

I think it should be first come first serve basis and not based on greed of miners for higher fee. At-least if a tx is sent with a proper fee. If it is lower or nil then by all means send it to the end but if a tx is paying at-least 1% of the transacted amount then it should get included in next 3 blocks at the very least.

And 4 USD doesn't seem bad if you're doing like 1tx in a week but when you're doing 4 in a day, it starts to look big. I'll give accelerators I try. Thanks all!

Btw, my stuck tx on block explorer :ETA unknown (9.97 vMB from tip) Cheesy

sheenshane

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Have you tried at least a free Bitcoin Transaction Accelerator?

If you don't want to use CPFP which is the RBF option of boosting transaction, you might use the Bitcoin accelerator, there is free and or the best is you pay an extra fee to accelerate the transactions. You can use either ViaBTC or BTC.com, but this doesn't have any guarantee to fasten the transaction, it will remain on the waiting line to be getting confirmed.

I think there's nothing you can do is to wait when it will confirm. By the next time, even you will pay $4 for a single transaction would be fine as long as you will not wait a long time. If you can see, the market congestion at this moment has been rapidly increased.

Bitcoin_Arena

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Quote from: Melloiga on September 21, 2020, 11:20:33 AM

I do generally use that option but it was sending with way higher fee in the last couple of transactions I did. Like fee up-to 4 USD for 100 USD tx and I moved the scroller to the left and it said within 2 blocks which wasn't too bad, so I sent it with that option and it got stuck.

I'll try the mempool option next time. I couldn't understand what it meant is why I didn't give it a try. So 0.1 MB from tip means it will get picked up as soon as possible? like in next block and 0.2 within 2 blocks?

My current stuck transaction says (9.36 vMB from tip) Cheesy

I think it is possible that it won't get confirmed this year.

If you look at the past blocks in https://mempool.space, you can see that the average bitcoin block size is around 1 MB though some blocks can even go up to 1.6+ MB
So if you transaction is at 0.1 MB or 0.2 MB from the tip, it means that should a block get mined in the next few seconds or a couple of minutes, you transaction stands a high chance of getting included in that block.

The longer the next blocks takes from getting mined while more unconfirmed transactions with higher fees keep coming into the mempool, the further your unconfirmed transaction is pushed away from the tip. So having a transaction closer to the tip of the mempool at the time you broadcast it helps to keep your transaction with in the range of the next block in a way.

Your TX might get confirmed in 24 hours.

ranochigo

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Quote from: Melloiga on September 21, 2020, 11:20:33 AM

That's a problem then. Especially when you need a tx to get confirmed quickly. I usually do end up sending with higher using same ETA and block explorer telling that I paid like 400% higher fee.

You can reduce such occurance by reducing the ETA. I use mempool mainly and go for 1MB when I need it urgently.

Quote from: Melloiga on September 21, 2020, 11:20:33 AM

I'll try the mempool option next time. I couldn't understand what it meant is why I didn't give it a try. So 0.1 MB from tip means it will get picked up as soon as possible? like in next block and 0.2 within 2 blocks?

Nope. Each block theoractically can accommodate 1MB of transaction. It simply means whether your transaction would be confirmed within the next X mb worth of blocks. It isn't accurate as with any fee prediction but it is a different way to present things.

Melloiga

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Quote from: jackg on September 21, 2020, 10:58:09 AM

I don't know also why you say you couldn't rbf? Surely they'd just accept the new transaction on the other end?

They use a payment processor and don't accept BTC directly and it says specifically to send only one transaction to that address and that too within a time frame and if you send more than that it might not get credited because the conversion price might change in the meantime.

Quote from: ranochigo on September 21, 2020, 10:55:32 AM

There's no model to predict the fee market and that's the best estimate that can be given. If the algorithm were to be more forgiving, people would complain that they're paying more than required for most of their transactions.

That's a problem then. Especially when you need a tx to get confirmed quickly. I usually do end up sending with higher using same ETA and block explorer telling that I paid like 400% higher fee.

Quote from: Pmalek on September 21, 2020, 10:57:22 AM

Your best bet is to check the current status of the mempool yourself before sending coins to determine what should work for a quick confirmation.

Go to https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#1,2h and pay attention to the last graph on the site. Place your cursor all the way to the far right to see the fee ranges of all currently unconfirmed transactions that are waiting to be picked up. For a quick confirmation in the next few blocks, I would say you need 50-60 sat/vbyte right now. Unless there is a sudden spike of transactions with much higher fees, that should be more than enough.

Personally, I would never pay such fees, unless it is absolutely necessary.

Yes, I was lazy to do it. I should have checked such websites which tell the best current fee.

Quote from: Bitcoin_Arena on September 21, 2020, 11:08:56 AM

I suggest you use the "In the next block" option next time, again it's not a guarantee but still your transaction stands a higher chance of getting confirmed quicker

I prefer the Mempool fees estimation option along side a couple of tools like mempool.space. They give a better picture of the mempool in real time unlike ETA which is mostly based on the previous block

I do generally use that option but it was sending with way higher fee in the last couple of transactions I did. Like fee up-to 4 USD for 100 USD tx and I moved the scroller to the left and it said within 2 blocks which wasn't too bad, so I sent it with that option and it got stuck.

I'll try the mempool option next time. I couldn't understand what it meant is why I didn't give it a try. So 0.1 MB from tip means it will get picked up as soon as possible? like in next block and 0.2 within 2 blocks?

My current stuck transaction says (9.36 vMB from tip) Cheesy

I think it is possible that it won't get confirmed this year.

Bitcoin_Arena

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Just like your topic says, it just an estimation and not the exact number of blocks in which your transaction will get confirmed. The state of unconfirmed transactions in the mempool keeps changing as new transactions with higher fees keep coming in and the time taken to confirm the next bitcoin blocks is something rather random. So, If the next block takes over 30 minutes to get confirmed then be sure you transaction has been pushed a little further away from the mempool tip than it was 30 minutes ago when you broadcast the transaction.

I suggest you use the "In the next block" option next time, again it's not a guarantee but still your transaction stands a higher chance of getting confirmed quicker

I prefer the Mempool fees estimation option along side a couple of tools like mempool.space. They give a better picture of the mempool in real time unlike ETA which is mostly based on the previous block

jackg

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https://bit.ly/387FXHi lightning theory

The fee estimation is only based on the past.

It's possible to change the fee estimator to be within a certain mempool constraint also which might be helpful for getting it within the next block but I mainly use the android version of electrum so I don't know how to do it on a PC.

I don't know also why you say you couldn't rbf? Surely they'd just accept the new transaction on the other end?

Pmalek

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Your best bet is to check the current status of the mempool yourself before sending coins to determine what should work for a quick confirmation.

Go to https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#1,2h and pay attention to the last graph on the site. Place your cursor all the way to the far right to see the fee ranges of all currently unconfirmed transactions that are waiting to be picked up. For a quick confirmation in the next few blocks, I would say you need 50-60 sat/vbyte right now. Unless there is a sudden spike of transactions with much higher fees, that should be more than enough.

Personally, I would never pay such fees, unless it is absolutely necessary.

ranochigo

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I'll say it's as good as it can get. Fee estimation utilises the mempool's recent fee statistics to guesstimate the suitable fee for you. Unfortunately, this entails having the downside of the software to not be able to predict future fees.

When I pay lower fees, I find it better to assume the worst case scenario since it's more likely for the mempool to spike suddenly (like what just happened) within the timeframe. There's no model to predict the fee market and that's the best estimate that can be given. If the algorithm were to be more forgiving, people would complain that they're paying more than required for most of their transactions.

Melloiga

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I'd say not accurate at all. I created a transaction and ETA said that it will get confirmed in 2 blocks with the suggested fee and it has been 3 hours and 10 blocks since then and I don't know how much longer it will take to get confirmed.

And it was a time bound transaction and the page I sent it to says that the time has passed and the deposit might get lost or returned. Undecided

And this is not the first time it has happened. I sent a tx before and ETA said it would get confirmed within 5 blocks and I wasn't in a hurry. So, I sent it with that fee. And in the morning after 10 hours later it was still unconfirmed and I had to do CPFP on the change balance address to get it to confirm.

Any way to fix this? I am on the latest Electrum btw. Also, I can't do RBF because the transaction would change and I will lose the deposit. And I don't want to keep doing CPFPs.

Topic: How accurate is the fee estimation in Electrum? - page 2. (Read 503 times)