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Topic: How an EURO melt down will affect bitcoins? - page 3. (Read 7190 times)

sr. member
Activity: 387
Merit: 250
November 28, 2011, 05:35:44 PM
#36

Seems that the three little bears (Naggle, EdwardNN, and Proudhon) might be finding more bee stingers than honey in the valley of the Bitcoin market depth.

Some predictions haven't quite come true, and I have great respect for anyone that changes their opinions based on new evidence:

Get ready for $1 bitcoins at the end of this month.

Full disclosure: my only prediction was three weeks ago, and though technically it was broken, no one had a chance to buy when it was sub $2.00:
My prediction: prices won't drop below $2 or go above $4 this year.

I'm still standing by this, and will buy more if it drops below $2, and sell if it approaches $4 before the end of the year.
newbie
Activity: 39
Merit: 0
November 28, 2011, 05:34:19 PM
#35
If a melt down happens, bitcoins will fall.

Bitcoins are based on the people, who trust the system. If the trust gets lost, ....
Old euros you can burn to heat your soup. For bicoins you need a computer, electri...

So maybe the rest of the world stores bitcoins, but the europeans cannot/won't do this.

Why? Because they notice now that money (also bitoins) isn't worth too much. The "real" things help you, feed you, make your life easier. To store money doesn't make any sense.

Especially the USD isn't any help any more. The europeans have got so much Dollars, because of the high debts of the US-government and the american people, they don't need more. And: The USA has got the same "european" problems. Exactly the same, but more debts and less resources to cope with them.

No currency is the problem and can't be a solution. Most of the time, it's just the trading-mechanism.
The europeans are learning this now. And they are taking the expensive way.
legendary
Activity: 4690
Merit: 1276
November 28, 2011, 03:12:57 PM
#34
...
Must. Resist. Temptation. To. Turn. Bullish...

Holy shit, is proudhon questioning his bearishness?  Even Nagle's trolling in a different thread seemed half-hearted.

Seems that the three little bears (Naggle, EdwardNN, and Proudhon) might be finding more bee stingers than honey in the valley of the Bitcoin market depth.

legendary
Activity: 1708
Merit: 1010
November 28, 2011, 02:57:52 PM
#33
Oh, and beware. If euro fails there will be a war.

Wow, I didn't know Angela Merkel read this board.

European peace and cooperation has a short history, and the collapse of this monetary union, even in the absence of the actual destruction of the currency itself, historical animosities are very likely to return to the surface of public discourse.  It's already happened between Greece and Germany, with some Germans calling for Greece to sell off some of their prized islands and Greeks referencing the looting of Greece during WWII.  Fringe political parties, with strong 'nationalistic' platforms have also been receiving more attention, and winning more seats, across all of Europe.  Mish has predicted that the first polititian to openly declare the Machiart (sp?) treaty a dead letter will win in a landslide, no matter which country he hails from.
sr. member
Activity: 387
Merit: 250
November 28, 2011, 02:46:07 PM
#32
Humans are creatures of habit. With soveriegn debt crisis, what do people do? Buy more but different sovereign debt. It was amazing that with the US credit downgrade, US treasury yields appreciated.
Eh, the downgrade was more a reflection of the pathetic ratings companies, the "Wall Street equivalent of the LA Clippers" as Nate Silver so aptly put it.  The US can and will pay, and everyone knows it.  The US economy is just so staggeringly huge - Walmart's revenue last year was about the same as the GDP of Sweden - the even if the political system is broken, they can still pay back debt eventually.

Must. Resist. Temptation. To. Turn. Bullish...

Holy shit, is proudhon questioning his bearishness?  Even Nagle's trolling in a different thread seemed half-hearted.
hero member
Activity: 714
Merit: 504
^SEM img of Si wafer edge, scanned 2012-3-12.
November 28, 2011, 11:57:11 AM
#31
Must. Resist. Temptation. To. Turn. Bullish...
You're having trouble not buying shitloads of bitcoins? Try me! I actually live in Europe!
legendary
Activity: 2198
Merit: 1311
November 28, 2011, 11:55:46 AM
#30
Humans are creatures of habit. With soveriegn debt crisis, what do people do? Buy more but different sovereign debt. It was amazing that with the US credit downgrade, US treasury yields appreciated. The logic may be that huge institutions with rating averages minimums were required to replace lower rated bonds and had no choice but to buy from the most liquid market - US Treasuries.

While EUR and USD are both looking bad, whichever one tumbles first, the other will climb. Mysteriously, people haven't yet lost faith in paper, they just shift from one paper to the other. I believe that bitcoin will behave much like CHF before Zurich pulled the plug. Representing only a tiny fraction of the European economy, what was only a trickle from EUR was a flood toward CHF. It would only take a few drops from the EUR ocean to make a tsunami in the BTC pond.

Must. Resist. Temptation. To. Turn. Bullish...
sr. member
Activity: 322
Merit: 251
FirstBits: 168Bc
November 28, 2011, 11:40:50 AM
#29
Humans are creatures of habit. With soveriegn debt crisis, what do people do? Buy more but different sovereign debt. It was amazing that with the US credit downgrade, US treasury yields appreciated. The logic may be that huge institutions with rating averages minimums were required to replace lower rated bonds and had no choice but to buy from the most liquid market - US Treasuries.

While EUR and USD are both looking bad, whichever one tumbles first, the other will climb. Mysteriously, people haven't yet lost faith in paper, they just shift from one paper to the other. I believe that bitcoin will behave much like CHF before Zurich pulled the plug. Representing only a tiny fraction of the European economy, what was only a trickle from EUR was a flood toward CHF. It would only take a few drops from the EUR ocean to make a tsunami in the BTC pond.
zby
legendary
Activity: 1594
Merit: 1001
November 28, 2011, 05:20:42 AM
#28
Strange how people interpreted it as if I suggested that EURO failure would move the BTC price up - while I clearly stated that it would mean 'risk off', selling of risky assets like bitcoins.  But in the end it is possible that in a case of a full financial meltdown people will try out any crazy schema to get out of the trouble.
Ok, so what do you think people would sell their Bitcoins for? USD? Gold? I don't think either is a very wise choice if the meltdown already happens. Since BTC are mostly traded for USD anyway, are highly liquid and far more resilient to confiscation / currency control measures I sure as hell would hold on to them in case of such a crisis.

Answering your question - USD - from what I read on the Internet this is the usual direction in such cases because USD is still considered the safest and the most liquid currency.  Also there is a lot of debt denominated in USD - so there can be a kind of short squeeze on dollars - and that is why liquidity matters and why gold can suffer for some time.  All of this is what I recently learned from some internet pundits - I am still not very confident about this thinking and I am not convinced that it matters much for bitcoins.  Also a drowning man will clutch at a straw - if the crisis gets really bad people will try all kinds of fringe investments and if that happens on a global or even just on a continental scale - then this could send bitcoin prices to the moon.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
November 28, 2011, 04:51:36 AM
#27
A falling apart of the euro zone doesnt mean euro's will become worthless. They will just be converted in to whatever new/old currencies those counties adopt. There might be a haircut involved, but its not like you will be using 100 euro bills as toilet paper. I also think its unlikely the euro will disappear completely, its more likely a few countries will drop out.

The biggest opportunity for bitcoin in this context is not that it would be a safe storage of wealth (clearly its not), but that it could gain usefulness to avoid currency exchange costs.
legendary
Activity: 4690
Merit: 1276
November 28, 2011, 04:09:14 AM
#26
No effect.  People aren't gonna turn to bitcoins after whats happened to it.  

Strange how people interpreted it as if I suggested that EURO failure would move the BTC price up - while I clearly stated that it would mean 'risk off', selling of risky assets like bitcoins.  But in the end it is possible that in a case of a full financial meltdown people will try out any crazy schema to get out of the trouble.

I doubt that that would be true.  In a crisis such as this, I suggest that people will be buying damn near anything just to unload their EURO's.  Additionally, there would almost certainly be capital controls and Bitcoin is probably second to none (litterally) in working around that sort of issue.

I personally expect that were the EURO to fail, the USD would be not far behind (though it could go through some very interesting and rapid-cycle gyrations.)  Since the whole thing seems like a distinct possibility to me, I have already taken steps to diversify and I choose BTC as a percentage of this diversification strategy and in part because I could imagine having control of some of them providing a certain amount of utility in a crisis situation.

legendary
Activity: 910
Merit: 1001
Revolutionizing Brokerage of Personal Data
November 28, 2011, 04:03:43 AM
#25
Strange how people interpreted it as if I suggested that EURO failure would move the BTC price up - while I clearly stated that it would mean 'risk off', selling of risky assets like bitcoins.  But in the end it is possible that in a case of a full financial meltdown people will try out any crazy schema to get out of the trouble.
Ok, so what do you think people would sell their Bitcoins for? USD? Gold? I don't think either is a very wise choice if the meltdown already happens. Since BTC are mostly traded for USD anyway, are highly liquid and far more resilient to confiscation / currency control measures I sure as hell would hold on to them in case of such a crisis.
zby
legendary
Activity: 1594
Merit: 1001
November 28, 2011, 03:50:48 AM
#24
No effect.  People aren't gonna turn to bitcoins after whats happened to it.  

Strange how people interpreted it as if I suggested that EURO failure would move the BTC price up - while I clearly stated that it would mean 'risk off', selling of risky assets like bitcoins.  But in the end it is possible that in a case of a full financial meltdown people will try out any crazy schema to get out of the trouble.
donator
Activity: 980
Merit: 1004
felonious vagrancy, personified
November 28, 2011, 02:28:14 AM
#23
Oh, and beware. If euro fails there will be a war.

Wow, I didn't know Angela Merkel read this board.
legendary
Activity: 910
Merit: 1001
Revolutionizing Brokerage of Personal Data
November 27, 2011, 05:28:35 PM
#22
I'd hate to go back to this misshapen quilt blanket of currencies… From a regular civilian point of view, the euro has been really convenient. Mark, Drachma, Guilder, Francs… Thanks but no thanks.
I Agree. It was also very appropriate that the European Bitcoin conference was in a non-Euro country - it was a great demonstration for the immediate usefulness of Bitcoin.

But anyway - having to exchange currencies again when traveling would probably be one of the less annoying consequences of a Euro collapse Wink
hero member
Activity: 714
Merit: 504
^SEM img of Si wafer edge, scanned 2012-3-12.
November 27, 2011, 05:19:47 PM
#21
BTCurious, I think your best bet is to diversify diversity diversify.  My thought would be 25% cash, 25% bank euro, 25% bank USD, 25% bitcoin.  If one or two fail, you won't be wiped out, and if USD or BTC shoot up relative EUR, you might come out ahead.
But also, keep in mind that currency "failure" is a loose term: if EUR drops by 50% vs. USD, people will consider it to have "failed", but it will still be useful paper to own.
Sounds reasonable. "25% cash" would still have to be cash in a certain currency though, and as such would only prevent against bank collapse. But in the event of a bank collapse my government ensures my savings up to a certain amount far above my current savings. So it might protect against a bank and government collapse, but the Netherlands seems rather unphased in the euro crisis, based on some graph that floated in front of my eyes (I haven't read up on economics).

Then there's also the thing where I have no idea how to properly "invest in USD" or whatever, and it seems scary to do anything with more than half of my money.

The best thing you can invest in is INDEPENDENCE. In knowledge, growing your own food, producing own energy, thinking without ait, being prepared for the worse.
Growing your own food etc…? I thought I lived in a Western country. Investing a large portion of my time in things like that seems so… pointless. Maybe that's my habits speaking.

No effect.  People aren't gonna turn to bitcoins after whats happened to it.
I'm considering at least investing more. I don't have a lot of money, but maybe people with more money would consider it too.

Another sure consequence is that with a hypothetical return of national currencies in Europe, Bitcoin would immediately gain usefulness.
I'd hate to go back to this misshapen quilt blanket of currencies… From a regular civilian point of view, the euro has been really convenient. Mark, Drachma, Guilder, Francs… Thanks but no thanks.
legendary
Activity: 910
Merit: 1001
Revolutionizing Brokerage of Personal Data
November 27, 2011, 05:13:17 PM
#20
No effect.  People aren't gonna turn to bitcoins after whats happened to it. 
Some would for sure, the price would rise and draw others in - we'd probably see the next bubble.

Another sure consequence is that with a hypothetical return of national currencies in Europe, Bitcoin would immediately gain usefulness.
sr. member
Activity: 387
Merit: 250
November 27, 2011, 04:49:15 PM
#19
I don't wanna sound like a conspiracy-guy but I also believe there is a possibility that someday some powers will stage a false-flage alien attack. The frame is already in place, greyish aliens that kidnap people and cows, lot's of alien invasion movies.
Can't tell if troll or serious, but leaning troll.  Where can I bet on conspiracy theories?  Oh wait, conspiracy theories are _designed_ around available data, and hence can never be disproved with available data, so the bet could never be settled. 
sr. member
Activity: 322
Merit: 251
FirstBits: 168Bc
November 27, 2011, 04:30:45 PM
#18
I don't wanna sound like a conspiracy-guy but I also believe there is a possibility that someday some powers will stage a false-flage alien attack. The frame is already in place, greyish aliens that kidnap people and cows, lot's of alien invasion movies. They need just some fancy technology and some casualties.

Paul? Is that you?

legendary
Activity: 1064
Merit: 1001
November 27, 2011, 04:24:14 PM
#17

BTCurious, in my experience Europeans are generally averse to physical metals, but are moving money into dollars (banks are already reporting record withdrawls). You might consider stocking up on food and petrol. You can't go wrong if it's a false alarm.

The best thing you can invest in is INDEPENDENCE. In knowledge, growing your own food, producing own energy, thinking without ait, being prepared for the worse.

I don't wanna sound like a conspiracy-guy but I also believe there is a possibility that someday some powers will stage a false-flage alien attack. The frame is already in place, greyish aliens that kidnap people and cows, lot's of alien invasion movies. They need just some fancy technology and some casualties. Actually there is a fear-frame for everything: economic collapse, nuclear wars, pandemics, running low on resources. And since most are already afraid and framed-in, the only thing I need is to wait for sunset and flashlight my face to scare the shit out of people.

On the other hand, if one is independent and thinks for it's own, how hard will be to scare him with "OMG, NO FOOD THIS YEAR". He'll just work harder to produce more. See the tribes people. What fears do they have, other than their gods and Earth's creatures?
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