I love hearing about this kind of speculation in the space, but I also think that things only happen when the elements like that are in place to get approval. From the moment bitcoin was approved for a spot ETF, I envisioned crazy things in the crypto space over the next 1 -2 years.
In fact, the difficult period has passed and we are approaching the main price increase cycle. However, this is also useful information for us to refer to to decide in accordance with the plan.
Topic: How Bitcoin Supercycle could become reality - page 3. (Read 614 times)
After the ATH break, which came unexpectedly before the halving date, people started to talk again about a possible Bitcoin Supercycle. To know what the Bitcoin Supercycle is, you can read this article on Cointelegraph which is surprisingly good.
In short: A Bitcoin Supercycle would break the "cyclic" nature of the Bitcoin price evolution we had in the last 11 years (since 2013), where sharp uptrends culminate approximately a year (or a bit more) after each halving and are followed by bear markets which go down more than 70% compared with the previous ATH. In a Supercycle, the price would continue its uptrend, perhaps a bit less steep than before, but we would not see a bear market of let's say more than 30-50%.
My take on this theory is that the way people use Bitcoin and invest into it must be change fundamentally until this will happen. But we may already be close, and it is even possible that the next bear market will already be much softer than the previous ones.
The current mentality of the Bitcoin community is still one of speculation "riding the waves" or "hoard and sell". Many will say that they're HODLing, but they will sell when they perceive the market has reached a top and will go down, or when there is already a clear downtrend.
This is what has to change. Instead, we need:
1) More people HODLing for longer periods than 4 years. I'm aware that not everybody is able to do this, but people with some savings can. And they would help the Supercycle to materialize, and profit in the end. You have to take always into account: if the Supercycle is finally there, and you sold, then you'll very likely regret it.
2) More people using BTC as a currency. This does not mean only for "payments", but also for example for remittances or for crowdfunding businesses (that's why I in generally approve the ICO model, only that of course you have to be wary about scams). This creates additional liquidity, and liquidity is helpful to mitigate crashes because it creates thicker order books. And crashes are what people fear most, and what makes them panic sell, and ultimately drives BTC down.
3) More people buying into the falling knife in bear markets. Even with the current 70-80% bear markets, buying at less than ~33% of the previous top actually always has meant that you will be able to sell for profit in less than a year, and if you have 3 years time to HODL then you have profitted always even if you bought near the top (excluding the 69-73k run).
4) More people DCAing into Bitcoin, and not only while the bull roars.
So basically when these four things occur, then the Bitcoin Supercycle is near, according to my personal opinion obviously. All these four items lower the probability for a deep bear market. This is also a self-sustaining pattern: if people see that bear markets aren't that scary anymore, they will HODL for more time and not panic sell.
Some people may think that "the ETFs already fixed that". But I'm not so sure about this. The ETFs could create more long term investment (my item 1) and add liquidity (item 2), but the reality is also that the market can become saturated at some point (still not now, of course!) and then at local tops there could be more outflows than inflows due to profit taking. And from this point on, deep bear markets still would be possible.
In short: A Bitcoin Supercycle would break the "cyclic" nature of the Bitcoin price evolution we had in the last 11 years (since 2013), where sharp uptrends culminate approximately a year (or a bit more) after each halving and are followed by bear markets which go down more than 70% compared with the previous ATH. In a Supercycle, the price would continue its uptrend, perhaps a bit less steep than before, but we would not see a bear market of let's say more than 30-50%.
My take on this theory is that the way people use Bitcoin and invest into it must be change fundamentally until this will happen. But we may already be close, and it is even possible that the next bear market will already be much softer than the previous ones.
The current mentality of the Bitcoin community is still one of speculation "riding the waves" or "hoard and sell". Many will say that they're HODLing, but they will sell when they perceive the market has reached a top and will go down, or when there is already a clear downtrend.
This is what has to change. Instead, we need:
1) More people HODLing for longer periods than 4 years. I'm aware that not everybody is able to do this, but people with some savings can. And they would help the Supercycle to materialize, and profit in the end. You have to take always into account: if the Supercycle is finally there, and you sold, then you'll very likely regret it.
2) More people using BTC as a currency. This does not mean only for "payments", but also for example for remittances or for crowdfunding businesses (that's why I in generally approve the ICO model, only that of course you have to be wary about scams). This creates additional liquidity, and liquidity is helpful to mitigate crashes because it creates thicker order books. And crashes are what people fear most, and what makes them panic sell, and ultimately drives BTC down.
3) More people buying into the falling knife in bear markets. Even with the current 70-80% bear markets, buying at less than ~33% of the previous top actually always has meant that you will be able to sell for profit in less than a year, and if you have 3 years time to HODL then you have profitted always even if you bought near the top (excluding the 69-73k run).
4) More people DCAing into Bitcoin, and not only while the bull roars.
So basically when these four things occur, then the Bitcoin Supercycle is near, according to my personal opinion obviously. All these four items lower the probability for a deep bear market. This is also a self-sustaining pattern: if people see that bear markets aren't that scary anymore, they will HODL for more time and not panic sell.
Some people may think that "the ETFs already fixed that". But I'm not so sure about this. The ETFs could create more long term investment (my item 1) and add liquidity (item 2), but the reality is also that the market can become saturated at some point (still not now, of course!) and then at local tops there could be more outflows than inflows due to profit taking. And from this point on, deep bear markets still would be possible.
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