Topic: How Bitcoin Supercycle could become reality (Read 602 times)

Governmental approval of Bitcoin makes banning much less likely, making longer term holding safer
It is not unusual to have savings. Many people have pension savings, some own property, a few own gold. Saving means trading [less consumption today] for [more consumption in the future] (e.g. during retirement). So selling Bitcoin to buy stocks or gold just trades one risk for another risk, but you still have risk. Even going 100% cash has risk because of inflation. If you plan to hold for more than 10 years, temporary drawdowns are not important, only permanent losses hurt you. The SEC decision, the ETF approval, MSTR, etc. have brought bitcoin more into the political power structure. The more Bitcoin is owned by the powerful people who set the regulations, the less likely we will see a ban and therefore a permanent loss of one's investment in Bitcoin.


Limited potential for volatility reduction during bear markets, plenty of potential during bull markets, via more people selling into the bull market.

If you know a bear market is temporary you can buy the dip. However buying the dip is limited by liquidity (many become unemployed or higher bank lending standards). The S&P-500 has drawdowns of 50%. European stock Indizes have drawdowns of 75%. A minimum drawdown portfolio of 55% gold and 45% S&P still has drawdowns of roughly 30%. I don't see Bitcoin drawdowns to be fully eliminated.

The Bitcoin 90 day volatility of Bitcoin during bear markets is already only 2-3x higher than the S&P Index.


While during bull markets we see 6x higher volatility in Bitcoin vs. the S&P Index.


I think Bitcoin having a 2x higher volatility than the S&P Index is still justified. Maybe one day Bitcoin's volatility drops below the S&P towards gold, but probably not within the next 10 years. This seems to suggest that catching the falling knife is working.

However I see plenty of potential for lower volatility during the bull market. We could calm this volatility by holders selling more aggressively into the bull market. As a result we will get less extreme tops and also lower drawdowns from the top.




The Bitcoin bottoms look stable, low Bitcoin valuation has very low volatility, therefore I think the DCA already works very well. I'm always happy to see more DCA, but most volatility is based in the bull markets not the bear markets.

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The competent acitve-investor fraction will shift from real estate to Bitcoin as generations cycle
People who are not interested in managing their own finances will simply stick to what the financial advisor tells them to do and are likely to invest in long-term US bonds regardless of inflation and the US fiscal situation. Only a subset of people (i) have money to invest, (ii) are competent enough to stick to a plan, and (iii) are interested enough to manage their own finances. Let's call them active investors. Many active investors are long property and short paper, a historically excellent trade. Many are also long equities. Most wealth is controlled by old people who are very competent at executing what they know, but bad at learning new things. They will just keep doing real estate. However, as the generations shift, bitcoin (IT & private key management) comes easier than real estate (maintenance and tenant management). People who would otherwise have handled bank loans, tenants and maintenance will also be competent enough to hold Bitcoin long term or buy it cheap and sell it expensive. As bitcoin becomes more integrated into the financial market infrastructure, there will be also more arbitrage.

I do agree that it looks like we are going to have a good year, but also when something unexpected happens that could make people fear it. We expected ATH to be broken after the halving, it was blown over before the halving and this made people happy because they thought "if it got high this early, then it will be even higher later on" and they might be right about that there is no doubt about that but they could also be wrong and people who do not buy it currently are fearing that.

I believe that it will go up even more, I am on that side, but I totally understand the people who do not expect it to be any higher as well, those have their own opinions and predictions and who am I to judge anyone about anything in the end.

I think there is no need to predict it because it is already happening. We already hit a new ATH too early this year and for sure there will be more to come after the halving and on the 3rd and 4th quarter of this year. Money is one of the important things in this world but some don't wish anymore to have more of it. They are either rich or poor, and if someone badly needs a money they might actually sell their investment and that can affect their prices negatively.

We should not worry though, because like you said, the situation is still better nowadays and it may take some time again before the situation shifts from its other side but before that happens, I'm sure all of us are now prepared.

I also think that the market can go very high but you are right that people who bought Bitcoin during the bear market when it was around $20k, have already made more than 3x profit if they had held their assets throughout this time, and waiting for 3 to 4 more years can be a bad decision for them because it is just a prediction that the market will go up and no one is sure about that, and in case the price of Bitcoin drops from here, they will have to let go of the profits their investments have earned so far.

The sort of economic situation the world is facing, people shouldn't hold their assets for the farthest future. One more solution for that is that they should take some profit when they see the market is declining, some profit along with the invested capital should be taken out and the rest should be kept.

Very good points.

"Legitimacy" is indeed important. We can argue that even if the ETFs approved this year "only" are providing access to Bitcoin for a selected class of investors, the psychologic effect ("Bitcoin is now part of the established financial system"), even increased by the fact that it was accepted by an entity (the SEC) often regarded as to be hostile to cryptocurrencies, is probably crucial here.

For the case of societies in lesser developed countries, I could bring up the case of Argentina, where BTC often even in bear markets performed better (sharp crash episodes like near the Terra/Luna desaster aside) than the local currency which constantly lost 10-25% per year (and 20-65% per year in 2021-24). These use cases however still are limited: your currency must be extremely weak for that to happen. And even in Argentina the USDT and other stablecoins are way more popular as an investment than Bitcoin, even if they can be censored easily (due to Ethereum providing blacklist mechanisms).

Thus, I'm still interested in the development of decentralized (i.e. equally or nearly equally censorship-resistant as BTC) financial products providing additional possibilities to hedge against Bitcoin volatility, mainly against the harsh bear markets. I've often mentioned the potential of decentralized option contracts based on atomic swaps but I still see no significant progress in this field, while DeFi on altcoin chains already provides such possibilities, but with a much weaker censorship protection. So there are definitely still some obstacles to be sorted out. Smart property-like systems could help here too, but they also are difficult to realize if they should be both censorship-resistant and low-risk.

Exactly that is the idea. Once it happens, it will likely become a virtuous cycle.

Such a development could however bring also a particular new risk: the probability for the extreme growth that characterized past bull runs would decrease in this scenario, and certain traders (mainly) will leave Bitcoin and dedicate e.g. to small-cap and micro-cap stocks again because they need more volatility. The challenge is thus that ideally this "speculator exodus" should happen only when legitimacy and confidence for BTC are already so high that the Bitcoin market doesn't get hit and can sustain itself without this class of traders and speculators (including the "lets get rich quick" people).

Thus I think while we are on the path, on the way forward there could still go something wrong, which could lead into the other extreme: the bear supercycle (>4 years without new ATHs and significantly lower prices). I'm optimistic but still think there's a significant probability for such a scenario.

Nicely written up and I think there is an overarching aspect to be found in Bitcoin's potential future proliferation that encompasses your 3) and 4) as well as countless of other aspects. I am referring to the institutionalization of Bitcoin within local, regional and eventually the global society. The needs of specific sub-societies that Bitcoin can serve are fundamentally different across the globe.

When we are talking about developed countries, institutionalization is mostly about establishing legitimacy. Those who like to speculate on things are probably into Bitcoin by now anyway. Especially the younger generations are including digital currencies into their daily talk more and more. I can observe that within my own surroundings. But now that ETFs are out, I think we will see a certain evolution in the savings and investment landscape offered by financial institutions in general. Naturally, this takes time and has nothing to do with a lack of understanding of the technology or a misled ideology by the dominating financial sector. Either way, the growing demand for this specific technology and its characteristics that Bitcoin brings about will push banks into coming up with their own offerings as a standard form of investment. In several years from now the banker will say something along the lines to customers who have spare cash and want to invest it: "are you interested in renewable energies, or digital currencies...". I just put this in a nutshell and there will of course be a more detailed introductory sentence to new forms of investments than this, but Bitcoin will get there like precious metals did. It is still a no-go in retail banking to plainly offer Bitcoin as an investment form. But Bitcoin will eventually be further legitimized through various avenues in the future. Anchoring Bitcoin within the middle of society as something normal, something that is accepted and made accessible through various institutions and authoritative actors will lead people from all parts of the spectrum to decide to at least hold some of this thing that once used to be mysterious and falsely depicted as some illegal method to buy drugs. I think it is already happening and those who are at least to a certain level familiar with what is going on (ETFs etc.), know that if Bitcoin really was the ultimate means to get drugs and weapons, it would have never gotten that status of a valid ETF underlying acknowledged by the most powerful financial authorities in the world.

Saving plans including Bitcoin will become more of a standard over time. Those who are skeptical will realize at some point that Bitcoins are not 16th century tulips. But it does take time and different people have different levels of skepticism. It is not only about education. People who are very strict and narrow-minded investors anyway, will probably never touch Bitcoin unless certain life-circumstances produce incentives that they otherwise haven't felt thus far.

In less developed countries Bitcoin doesn't need institutional legitimacy, but problem-specific functionalities. This can be the hedge against inflation, the need to have a safe place to save money when banks can be robbed, shut down within an instant or plundered due to corruption (some African countries for example). Some small African sub-societies are using Bitcoin to save money, to get away from all the issues that come with putting cash under the pillow. Then there is of course capital mobility: if someone wants to leave the country but there are legitimate or illegitimate restrictions imposed on individuals or organizations that intend to transfer the cash out of the country. Or when it comes to supporting certain causes where it is impossible or risky to send money from a bank account.

But all these things will develop over time more and more and the banking system will try to emulate what Bitcoin can do, but truth be told, this is a losing race for the banks because they will run with their heads into a wall. I assume that the United States has long taken a stance pro Bitcoin, but they don't openly communicate about it. My guess is that they will make sure to have their hands on a certain share in the entire Bitcoin network and then gradually drive forward its legitimacy. By reducing overall uncertainty as to where legislation and politics will allow Bitcoin to go, more people will decide to include Bitcoin as a saving plan, i.e. more DCA, and they will more courageously catch the falling knife, thereby reducing the drop height of the falling knife further and further from cycle to cycle. That is how your super cycle will play out over time. The downside "correction" will turn into potential, which will more quickly be exploited, which will reduce the drop height of the falling knife in the next cycle, which will foster confidence, etc. etc.

But after all, it is about time. When I talked to older people about Bitcoin 10 years ago, they thought I could potentially be a criminal. This has changed for most of them, but there are of course still some of them who mostly focus on the headlines "drug dealer caught and X Bitcoin confiscated".

I've already listed some points in the OP.

But to elaborate a bit further on my "line of thought":

Bitcoin's most important unique selling proposition is censorship resistance. Censorship resistance makes sense mainly for payments (value transfers) and "storage of value". Thus all adoption based on these two main functions should imo be encouraged.

But these functions are the ones most affected by Bitcoin's volatility. You currently don't really have a reliable storage of value with BTC, only if you hold it for more than 2-4 years (depending where you invested). And the payments function is stagnating partly also due to volatility ("why waste my precious btc on buying things") and also because of the fee problem, which is why scalability-enhancing technology is so important. Currently, there are more ecommerce transactions in LTC than in BTC!

The points I outlined in the OP are several kinds of investment and/or usage scenarios which would be useful to really enter the path to a storage of value and payment medium. It doesn't have to be a perfect unit of account, but it should also not put your capital in serious danger if you invest in a bad moment (and can face a 70-90% price decrease). Numbers aren't that important ("1 billion people using BTC"), the important thing is that the share of these usage scenarios grows and eventually becomes dominant. I think we are on the path already, but need to advance further, and the faster the better.

In contrast, speculation on CEXes is exactly the opposite. You don't need censorship resistance for that, because the CEX can always censor you. It can be argued that many of the strategies employed by speculators are even harmful to the storage of value concept because they tend to rise volatility (short selling, massive squeezes and liquidations, extreme FOMO etc.). So this is an use case where while I would not say we should discourage directly (only regarding security) no further encouragement is necessary.

Just a quick think on this, I don't think we have reached a sort of maturity because well, everything about it has suddenly become regulated, it has gained connections with stock markets, investment principles and vehicles but more of a forced transition to the inevitable because of the lack of actions that we're prevalent in the past, acts that greed and the let's call it a solid mirage of a reward is erasing quite efficiently.
Much like you can't become a gentleman overnight but if you stopped picking your nose you still have the benefit of doubt on what you are!


If there's one thing I always praise Bitcoin is for being a tool you can use how you please and not breaking any of the core principles, if you want to invest go for it, you want to hide value in a picture or a soda can, do it, if want to buy something from darknet, your choice bro, want to hide money from your spouse and his lawyer, well, sorry for your situation but here's the tool to do it. But this is why I never got a real grasp of what "adoption" means!
Does it mean 1 billion people using Bitcoin daily?
Does it mean 1 billion addresses with a balance?
Does it mean 1 trillion CEX accounts?

With what do we compare it, gold lingots? Visa cards? Stock market shares distribution? Robinhood accounts?
This is the reason why every time I hear adoption I want to ask what kind of adoption and more importantly, for what adoption do we (whatever we means here) even aim?

I disagree. Imagine where the fees would be now if Segwit hadn't happened. BTC throughput has more than doubled since pre-Segwit times. Taproot is still new, but stuff like RGB and Taproot Assets, once more mature, could be game changers too, leading to a new paradigm for crypto tokens where off- and onchain methods are combined for a more scalable approach.

And while sidechains/rollups are still not really a thing on Bitcoin, they have improved Ethereum throughput already greatly. Already in 2023 gas fees plummeted 80%. I'm observing some projects which could lead to similar developments on Bitcoin, mainly Nomic (already operational but still in an experimental stage) and SBTC on the Stacks blockchain (mainnet not launched still). These projects have still their problems, and I would even predict that a completely different sidechain will be the one that finally reaches the breakthrough. But compared to 3-4 years ago when the development of L2s had been almost stalled, they have made a big jump forward.

Regarding LN, you may have missed that it is now accepted at most major exchanges which is a big milestone. LN was launched in 2018 on mainnet, it is now at the same stage than social networks were in 2003 (if we take into account that the first social networking service, SixDegrees, was launched in 1997). The early 2000s in social media tech were a period which "to the average user" looked like a stagnation but under the hood there was MySpace and one year later Facebook emerging which were the foundation for the boom of this tech in 2007-10. So if LN evolved in the same speed than social networks, we could expect a final breakthrough in mass adoption in ~2026-28. Maybe it's even faster

I sorta agree here, although I think it's still a quite optimist point of view. It's possible that we've not reached this point entirely. But we may be on a good path, partly due to ETFs, ETNs and other financial products based on BTC.

I agree here and that's the whole point of the thread "Adoption" in these times is basically "more people speculating". And if we're unlucky, it's people speculating in exactly the same way than in the 2013 and 2017 bull runs: trying to buy when the bull market is already in full force and then refuse to sell when the greed level is highest -- and then panic selling in the bear market.

I see more people talking about DCA and similar stuff (I take the opportunity to this excellent thread by @virginorange for an improved DCA strategy) but I believe it's still a minority phenomenon. If we want the Supercycle, this has to change. Maybe gradually.

BTW, why is not anyone talking about the obvious utility as alternative investment now that we have ETFs?

For me the 2017  to 2019 period was critical to my personal stance towards bitcoin holdings. I did mine, take any token on offer by bounty hunting or translating and played trading with ethereum an a few other things. I did get profit from it.

Now, I clearly figured out that I would have made more profit from bounty hunting only for bitcoin and simply buying and holding (hodling if you want). It is as simple as that and it seems that lots of people are in that wavelength now.

Nostradamus predicted a future that would not be affected by his own actions, Satoshi designed a thing that will work as that in the future, there is serious difference between those two.


For once, I don't think people would dump bitcoin now to 90%!
The perspective has changed and it's no longer perceived as something that can just go out the back door in a matter of seconds, it has earned a solid foothold in the markets, and there are people with long term investments that are chasing not just huge revenues but even continuous over the stock market average small gains long-term.
But still not quite a supercycle, more like a chimera of things, cause I don't see with this change huge jumps happening also, when gains will in short periods outpace other investments some will just take those gains and switch to something else, believing and creating themselves tiny cycles of growth and retracements but with an overall direction following stock markets and economic trends.

I was quite the pessimist back last year, I was on the verge of betting that the halving will not do us any good either but after the ETF success (yeah , complete success, not even going to argue here) I don't see anything really bad happening that would bring us back to a linear growth with an under 30k as per November baseline.


Cryptos did a lot of piggyback riding on technological advancement.
If people in 1996 out have the same internet as we have now Facebook would have grown in a matter of months to the behemoth it is today, look at tiktok..
Paypal grew slowly because not everyone was buying stuff online, common, how many people here had internet on their phones in 2002?  

I'm on the same page as hatshepsut93 on the stagnation, let's be honest other than the price, it for sure hasn't made any progress in things like commerce or even remittance, adoption has turned more to some numbers in a CEX account, and ..that's about all.

Agree with that, the market is surely getting slow it just needed more money in the system in order to break that cycle, but in my opinion, Bitcoin surely adapted a lot in the past years, so Im really expect for the market price to max up to 100k+ in the market hopefully in the Bullrun if it is going to happen. Compared to the past years I would easily say that Cryptocurrency really adapted to a lot of people right now, there are tons of people that is doing trading already, seems easy for them because it is really accessible right now compared to the past years, a lot of influencers are doing trading as well, well probably because there are already a lot of tutorials out there and if you really want to learn to invest and trade on the cryptocurrency you could easily do it right now if you have the resources, with just a computer and internet. I mean the progress was just too fast with this kind of technology.

Probably the cycle is still going to happen related to the Bitcoin halving timeline where the market is going to skyrocket but if we want to break that cycle by reaching another goal, or breaking the past timeline, creating new records something like that like a supercycle, it just needed a huge amount of money, and that is not going to be easy for sure since a huge amount of money is gonna need in the Bitcoin. Still possible with the structure of limited supply of 21 Million, calculate that with the population of the world it is just doable, the possible market price is just too high if a lot of people are going to invest.

SegWit and Taproot didn't change much for an average user, and LN is still so far from being "officially" launched that it might as well be ignored. Bitcoin's scalability hasn't changed much from its release, and features for an average person too.


Facebook and Instagram weren't possible in 1996, because Internet speeds couldn't handle even a few pictures, needless to say things like video streaming. And forums back then were rather small things with thousands of users while Facebook has billions. And developing such platforms wasn't possible 30 years ago because web browsers couldn't do a lot of things they do today. So in my view the progress of web technologies is far bigger than the progress of Bitcoin.

I agree about the centralization, and lots of the tokens on ETH are indeed useless, and there is also a kind of "DeFi circlejerk" where you use DEXes to trade DEX tokens

However, there are some projects too which do have some utility, and businesses of any kind can crowdfund on Ethereum (if there aren't operating in some regulated market). They can of course also use Bitcoin, too (with "protocol layers" like Omni or Counterparty) but Ethereum is far more established at this time for this use case. So it's possible that in the case of a really deep crypto winter the crowdfunding scene keeps Ethereum a bit more alive. However, if Bitcoin recovers (due to finding real usage and adoption outside of speculation) my guess is that it will overtake Ethereum again.

This may appear so at the first glance. But first, Bitcoin is evolving, there are improvements like Segwit and Taproot, and the most important milestones are second layers like LN and sidechains (even if there is still no decentralized BTC sidechain, rollups on Ethereum are making progress in this field).

Second, I believe the perceived progress in internet technology is also not that significant as it seems, the "progress" here has much more to do with adoption (e.g. in the realm of social media). Facebook or Instagram are technically not that different from a web forum of ca. 1996, it's basically a HTML frontend with a database containing messages and a bit of JavaScript. Of course hardware improvements have made new developments possible or better, like AI and more realistic visual stuff (videogames, ultra HD imagery). In fact, tools like ChatGPT, DALL-E etc. are the only field where I really could see "revolutionary" changes in the last 20-25 years. But in general: the web/tech business models which weren't working in the 90s mainly work now because the Internet is used by the majority of the population, not so much because of technological advancements.

If we see some more progress particularly in the layer-2 field, this could of course improve the chances for a Supercycle because it can make mass adoption easier.

This has been my fear for a long time - if most of Bitcoin's value come from "buying it to sell later", then sooner or later it will crash very hard until its value mostly will reflect its utility.


Ethereum is far worse than BTC due to its high centralization, and its utility is actually fake, because it just provides crowdfunding and marketplace for more useless tokens.


The difference between crypto and dotcom is that the Internet technology was making constant and fast progress every year, while crypto has been stagnant for a long time. Bitcoin is not too different from Bitcoin of 10 years ago, and altcoins just invent new ways to sell premined tokens with no real use - DeFi, NFT, ICO and so on is essentially the same.

Yep, there is for example the "long Elliott wave" theory, for example shown here. Essentially while this model is still bullish, it implicates that the price would fall, after reaching >100.000$, to much lower lows than we're accustomed to and stay low for more than 4 years without new ATH, even if the long term trend could be still bullish. And there is also the Hyperwave theory with similar assumptions.

On the other extreme we see the S-curve of adoption theory, which is the base for highly speculative models like Stock 2 Flow, but also for more serious concepts, like Bitcoin being adopted massively for payments and savings alike.

As I wrote in the OP, I think everything depends on the kind of adoption we'll see in the coming years. If Bitcoin isn't able to convince the world that it has real value, and only remains an asset people buy to "make money" and get rich fast, then a super bear market is completely possible. If there is no indication of Bitcoin's real value-of-use, then the speculative value remains, which isn't much higher than that of the average altcoin. I guess that in this case Ethereum could surpass Bitcoin as leading cryptocurrency for a while, because its smart contract model is rooted deeper in "real economy" due to the usage to crowdfund tech companies.

Such a super bear market could however also be an opportunity: if the speculative capital is driven out, but Bitcoin's USPs remain uncontested (uncensorable, borderless digital money), then the supercycle could even materialize after a super bear market with prices of let's say <$5000. Basically that would be similar to the dot-com/tech bubble, which lasted a little bit less than 10 years until it popped (early 90s to 2000/2001), followed by a depression but then sustainable growth after 2009/2010 when the business models that were still an illusion in the 90s and early 2000s finally began to work.

Yeah well, I wouldn't put too much hope in that either. Dan Held was already saying 4 years ago that there could be a supercycle in this very cycle that is ending, and whose peak price could have reached $0.5M. It could and would, but it didn't happen. I do not rule out that people's Bitcoin buying and holding habits can influence the cycles but I better avoid thinking that this will translate into spectacular price growths, because with the market cap that Bitcoin has, it is increasingly difficult to move it.

The Bitcoin supercycle is already a reality because it has more than fulfilled some of these points so stated in the post and with the spot exchange traded funded being approved, the larger pockets, that is big companies and corporate bodies as well as individuals with more money can buy BTC investments without any FOMO.

The price surpassed and almost nearing $80k beating the previous all time high just as we anticipate the halving to soon happen in this April. It's just some days to the fourth halving and so many persons and enthusiastic investors can't wait for it to happen so the bull run comes and they sell whatever HODLing they accumulated for as long as 5 or more or even lesser number of years.

Four year cycle thing is a reality that has happened each time so far, why would that change? Why would that be not true? I mean people who doubted it became aware that they made a mistake, and we are now making a good amount of money from it as well. I get that it is not that simple to focus on this, but as long as it exists and it has been proven each time, we could just focus on that being the most important thing.

I believe that the best thing to do at this moment would be just letting it be, and that's how we would move forward with it. I know that it is a danger to many people, and could probably have some trouble along the way, but that's just the way it is and will always be related to that without a doubt.

Perhaps this explains why the surge even before the halving period occurs. Coupled with the etf approval I have a feeling this circle will be different from previous. I can say the first 2 option already happening,  I mean more people buying and holding btc.
More people businesses already accepting btc for transactions.
It already looks like btc is pumping and before the halving and will also pump after the halving which can already be considered as super. I am not sure if this pattern has happened before in previous circles.

The main reason we could see a Bitcoin Super Cycle this time is because the US finally approved spot etfs. The amount of capital that now has access to Bitcoin is staggering. We have never seen anything like it before. It’s still very early since these products began trading but we are already up from 38k to 70k since they opened. The halving is in less than a month which will also help. We will know more in 12 months but a Super Cycle could be on the cards.

Satoshi is another Nostradamus, he saw the future. In future, main income of Bitcoin miners will be from transaction fees, not block subsidy.

This report from Glassnode: Inscriptions, Mempools and Miners in September 2023, is a good example that how Bitcoin miners can benefit from high demands on Bitcoin blockchain and how transaction fees become their main income, even in 2023.

Lost bitcoins are donation to everyone and helps Bitcoin value too.

I remember there was a lot of hype about the supposed supercycle in 2020-2021, and then it still player out the good old pattern of a big bull run ending with big crash. So the key word here is that a supercycle "could" become a reality, but the probability of it is unknown. Could be high, could be low.

But my worry is that there's also the probability of the opposite of the supercycle - super bear market that could happen if investors and traders get bored of Bitcoin and move on to something different, something completely unrelated to cryptocurrency. With a lot of money leaving the market and no new investments, there good be a very long depression with the price falling down by 80-90%. Essentially it would mean that majority of the Bitcoin market history was a big long bubble, and the bear markets were just corrections of this long mania phase.

The probability of this doomsday scenario is just as unknown as the probability of a supercycle.

Expecting people to hold for longer than 4 years might be a punch in the moon.

One thing we can not change is the psychological nature of people. The way they think, the way they react, and the resulting consequences of those decisions are pretty much the same for almost all people. Many will expect fud and sell their coins even if there is no remotely bad happening.

Another thing is that due to high transaction fees, not a lot are very keen in using bitcoin as a currency. If this were to be solved, I am sure your fantasy of supercycle could actually come true.

The  bitcoin analysts will know when the supercycle will eventually commence,The supercycle evolution is going to be interesting that crypto is on the verge of a complete rise in mass adoption.

The emergence of bitcoin supercycle has been talked about for so long and it literally seems to be happening anytime soon.The pathway that bitcoin is creating for it's users is incredibly undeniable.
The supercycle is welcoming everyone into another realm full of expectations and excitement.

As time passes by, the skills and predisposition of the people about bitcoin and crypto in general changes for the better as anything that becomes better with age. What in the past would usually spell panic selling would not faze even the regular noobie at present, not only because they are more knowledgeable than newbies in the past were, but also because the community that bitcoin has harbored across the years turned into a solid cabal that allowed people to provide support and assistance among people who are already scared and confused about the state of the market in these situations, whereas in the past we're left to fend for ourselves.

I think all of this goes to show that what we are building here, intentionally and inadvertently shaped bitcoin not only to be a formidable currency that would stand the tests of time and the market, but also a community and an industry that is inclusive, smart, and actively looking for better ways to expand its reach. We keep this shit up and soon enough we're going to break the minds of ever critic out there, everyone who's had a doubt about bitcoin's validity eveer since it broke out the market in 2016, and every Ripple CEO who wishes they can be as big as us. LOL.

To get the super cycle we would need majority of bitcoins to be in the hands of cooperations and institutions. Regular retail investors will for the most part act to maximize profits as soon as possible, making a couple of mistakes along the way. Only a few would be able to put significant amount of money away for the long term (4+ years) and not panic as the market goes up and down. We cannot wish that the rest will build that mindset or start to earn enough to comfortably do that.

If we can unlock this as a community, it would be a big step in moving us closer to the super cycle.

Could you elaborate a bit more? Is your assumption based on variations of the selling pressure by miners?

My take on that is that miners' "power" to influence price is declining and already quite small, as they're a small minority of all BTC sellers now (about 0,1 % if you take total exchange volume, may be higher on the BTC/USD market though).

That's actually part of the problem why we have seen no Supercycle yet. It's a self-reinforcing cycle.


No, seems you didn't understand the post. "Mass adoption" could also mean that every single person in the world adopts the habit of buying low and selling high. This is absolutely the kind of mass adoption which will keep the harsh bull-bear cycles in place. And no, it's not only noobs who are selling at the cycle tops or when they think the bear market has begun. The whales do the same thing, and pro traders short the market.

You could shorten the examples I gave to something like "stability-oriented mass adoption". Or "mass adoption without cyclic speculation". But the type of adoption is still crucial.

this supercycle has been talked about years ago. cool to see it will be possible already by how the market is doing this year that we hit the previous ATH without the halving. we normally get this after halving so it is amazing how this will carry on.  I'm sure the ETFs have something to do with this, it's not just BlackRock that's buying up so yes I'm gonna be hoping it will really happen. who wouldn't want that?

when baby boomers are trying to buy some BTC, i suppose we're already heading there.

Well, the price not falling more than 30-50% below the ATH sounds very nice, but I don't get why it's supposed to happen now. I mean, sure, the bull market came a little early, but I don't think it's such a major change. I'm also wondering whether smaller drops will be accompanied by smaller gains in the bull markets.
As for things that have to change, hodling for 4+ years and using Bitcoin more as a currency sound like two very different and perhaps incompatible points.

The block reward is tricky stuff.

For example, if we look back a few months the reward was under 30 mils a day, now ( a bit unusual as faster blocks happened today day) it has spiked to $74 mils, so even the so-called halving cycle will not really mean a decrease of supply in $ value, we were producing 30 mils of coins we're going to produce 35 mils even after this.
Also, the fee is more tied to the value in $, people don't really care about 20sat/vb or 100sat/vb they care what that means in $, so the blocks will never be able to keep an equilibrium there.

I will go with d5000 opinion as I think we're entering a stage of market maturity, and unlike previously the causes for large swing will be gone, as well as a new attitude from the new generation of investors

Personally, I also predict this bull cycle will be a super bull cycle, but the catalyst for that to happen is that we have the ETFs, inflation cools down, the US election, the world economy enters the post-crisis recovery period, everyone's need to make money will be greater because everyone needs money to overcome the recent difficult period...All of this will trigger a super bullish cycle, as investment demand increases significantly. This will not only happen in the cryptocurrency market but also across the entire financial market.

I think we just have to agree that the pathway Bitcoin is threading is more than just a perfect pre-planning. The advancement and progress BTC has had to make over the time has helped other cryptos rise to the challenge and become better.
The forces behind the creation of BTC is more than responsible for this and that's why each stage of achievement makes it a more demanded coin hence making it more fulfil its supercycle.
Like the ETF approval, accepting to be regulated in many societies, having its own ATM machines in some developed cities, having a good store value, the halving and other things it has recently done to make it genuine, it's definitely going to be bullish a long time.
The supercycle is already in motion and we might see BTC rising to more than $120k before may/June, with more ETF investors.

ETFs are like an appetizer for Bitcoin to become more massive. It could be said that the opening of this ETF is an ideal point for all institutional investors who previously did not dare to enter Bitcoin, now they can place their trust in a party whose reputation is beyond doubt to store their assets. We who act as retailers must be a little patient and not easily give up Bitcoin ownership, institutional demand for Bitcoin is always in large quantities, so the increasing demand in the market shows a sign that the Bitcoin Supercycle cannot be stopped this year and next year.

I agree but as we move to another year and going through a cycle again for the bull run, it's more likely that these bear markets won't be that aggressive compared to the past ones that we've been.

This time, I guess I am saying this because we're on the bull run. But if I'm looking back at 2018 and 2022 which they've followed the bull run, it's more obvious that the hit goes with the 2018 and the deeper bear market has happened by that time.

Unlike 2022, it's more of a slow market but can still be said as another bear market. It doesn't look painful at all when we've been holding for so long and even if the peak was $69k, we've got a new all time low at that time.

You could just use the term "mass adoption of Bitcoin" instead of writing all that text.
There's room for growth of Bitcoin. The amount of Bitcoin investors/supporters around the world is still relatively small. The problem is that most noobs, who enter the world of Bitcoin are lacking experience, which means that they are vulnerable to panic selling and falling into various crypto scams.
Bitcoin remains a scarce asset with growing demand, which means that the price is destined to increase in the long term. That doesn't mean that there won't be bear markets in the future. I still convinced that many BTC investors/traders are capable of panic selling, if a big enough FUD reason occurs.

Most of Average Joes didn't think Bitcoin is the best asset for long term holding.

Let's say they have $100K, they will split it to 3-4 assets: first they will invest $50K in ETF (not Bitcoin ETF), second they will invest $40K in precious metal or stock, then the $10K they will invest in cryptocurrency. Usually they will diversify 50% for top cryptocurrency and 50% for shitcoins.

They think Bitcoin is like shitcoins, they use it to make more money through timing the market.

Most people will "buy into the failing knife" and "DCA", but holding longer than 4 years is high unlikely.

You might be right on the opinion of the super cycle but it's very difficult to make a decision on that for traders.BTC in this bull run multiplied peoples investments many times and now to hope for a super cycle and hold that amount is a bit difficult to think.

The investors who don't have a larger capital of assets should take the profits out because a super cycle hasn't occurred previously and to judge its occurrence can be very risky. The big investors should move on with the holding it might be true because the points you mentioned are well on the road to destination. So it's very tricky right now.

I think you're speaking for everyone that the 4-year cycle is still the valid thing that we all should look out for, it's the thing that's consistently happening and it hasn't fail each cycle, I'd like to add that we can only be sure that there's supercycle happening or that it's going to happen when it finally happens, sure this is the first time that bitcoin has reached it's peak before halving but it's not the biggest telltale signs that a supercycle is going to happen.

Regarding the people that are going to be affected by this, I think that a lot of us would easily adapt to it in the case that it does happen, a lot of people that's been on the bitcoin market for awhile now have been through a lot of uncertain and volatile market patterns before so it's not really that difficult for us to adapt to changes that may come, even the new generation of bitcoin hodlers and investors are probably good at adaptation at adaptation to compared to past newbies that easily panic whenever the price goes down so bad.

I still believe that the 4-year model is valid because the main variable in it is the return from the block compared to the average costs of producing Bitcoin. Currently, Avg Block Fees are 0.1447 BTC/block, and each block produces about 6.424 BTC $414,723. If Block Rewards decreases to 3.125, and assuming that the average fee will be 0.2 total 3.225, which means a price of about 128k on average for the next four years and a range between 80k to 140k during the next three years. we are still in the category of corrections of 60% to 80%, although the possibility of 60% is more likely and no Supercycle.

The thing that could affect the four-year cycle is transaction fees. If they rise sharply, exceeding an average of 1.5 per block, then the price of Bitcoin will definitely be stable and we will not witness changes every 4 years.

I love hearing about this kind of speculation in the space, but I also think that things only happen when the elements like that are in place to get approval. From the moment bitcoin was approved for a spot ETF, I envisioned crazy things in the crypto space over the next 1 -2 years.
In fact, the difficult period has passed and we are approaching the main price increase cycle. However, this is also useful information for us to refer to to decide in accordance with the plan.

After the ATH break, which came unexpectedly before the halving date, people started to talk again about a possible Bitcoin Supercycle. To know what the Bitcoin Supercycle is, you can read this article on Cointelegraph which is surprisingly good.

In short: A Bitcoin Supercycle would break the "cyclic" nature of the Bitcoin price evolution we had in the last 11 years (since 2013), where sharp uptrends culminate approximately a year (or a bit more) after each halving and are followed by bear markets which go down more than 70% compared with the previous ATH. In a Supercycle, the price would continue its uptrend, perhaps a bit less steep than before, but we would not see a bear market of let's say more than 30-50%.

My take on this theory is that the way people use Bitcoin and invest into it must be change fundamentally until this will happen. But we may already be close, and it is even possible that the next bear market will already be much softer than the previous ones.

The current mentality of the Bitcoin community is still one of speculation "riding the waves" or "hoard and sell". Many will say that they're HODLing, but they will sell when they perceive the market has reached a top and will go down, or when there is already a clear downtrend.

This is what has to change. Instead, we need:

1) More people HODLing for longer periods than 4 years. I'm aware that not everybody is able to do this, but people with some savings can. And they would help the Supercycle to materialize, and profit in the end. You have to take always into account: if the Supercycle is finally there, and you sold, then you'll very likely regret it.
2) More people using BTC as a currency. This does not mean only for "payments", but also for example for remittances or for crowdfunding businesses (that's why I in generally approve the ICO model, only that of course you have to be wary about scams). This creates additional liquidity, and liquidity is helpful to mitigate crashes because it creates thicker order books. And crashes are what people fear most, and what makes them panic sell, and ultimately drives BTC down.
3) More people buying into the falling knife in bear markets. Even with the current 70-80% bear markets, buying at less than ~33% of the previous top actually always has meant that you will be able to sell for profit in less than a year, and if you have 3 years time to HODL then you have profitted always even if you bought near the top (excluding the 69-73k run).
4) More people DCAing into Bitcoin, and not only while the bull roars.

So basically when these four things occur, then the Bitcoin Supercycle is near, according to my personal opinion obviously. All these four items lower the probability for a deep bear market. This is also a self-sustaining pattern: if people see that bear markets aren't that scary anymore, they will HODL for more time and not panic sell.

Some people may think that "the ETFs already fixed that". But I'm not so sure about this. The ETFs could create more long term investment (my item 1) and add liquidity (item 2), but the reality is also that the market can become saturated at some point (still not now, of course!) and then at local tops there could be more outflows than inflows due to profit taking. And from this point on, deep bear markets still would be possible.