Topic: 2024 Elliott Wave (Read 1275 times)

Yes, the scenarios are quite bold, and quite complex, and are probably the least expected scenarios in EW circles.

The average pullback zone across all three counts is around 50K.

Personally, would hope neither of the counts develop since there has been plentiful "election euphoria" buying between 80K-90K, in anticipation of mythical 100K. So, a 'crash' to 50K could be the largest ETF and long liquidation event in Bitcoin history perhaps..?

If either of the counts do unfold, it would likely be a global risk-off news event across all assets (i.e. equities and commodities), perhaps elapsing 1-2 months to bottom.

I like your boldness to predict a deep dip when nobody expects it anymore

The "running flat" scenario is actually one I can imagine still to happen. The 59-60k area was quite important in the 2024 intermediate corrections: either the dips stopped there or it fell deeper than 57k mostly, and also in the recoveries it took some time to pass that area.

However I think the current price development is mostly news-driven. As far as I understand the Elliott wave theory, news are also a component to evaluate when analyzing in which wave we're in. The euphoria phases of 10+% like yesterday are even more typical for a wave 5. So I only expect such a dip to happen if some negative news loom and thus the sentiment isn't universally bullish anymore. For example, if in December there is no Fed interest rate cut, or if the Microsoft shareholders reject the company to purchase Bitcoins, or Trump makes disappointing announcements, then a panic + long liquidations could actually move the price into these areas again. But in this case I can imagine the scenario to play out similarly to the "running flat" option. If we fall lower than 49-50k, which is of course possible, I can imagine the market will not recover that fast and will probably take several months to return to the current level.

probably a simple correction that 2

Yes, we already discussed it a month ago.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.64603777

The alternative bullish count would suggest wave-2 pullback bottomed on 05-AUG-2024, and wave-3 uptrend has been underway ever since.

However, the uptrend since the 05-AUG-2024 low to present high, thus far, appears corrective; hence considering it as an Irregular B-wave.

Yes, we are probably in a B,
What I don't understand is why you don't consider an alternative bullish account.
There are almost always two possible scenarios,
and breaking through $74k is a very possible scenario.

Still appears to be a corrective B-wave, at all-time highs.

new ATH
maybe you still think about dips
because if there is a bullish count, there will always be an alternative bearish count

Wow!!
You keep insisting that BTC hasn't broken the resistance yet.

Don't you even see an alternative account with a minimal chance of it going to $100k already???

 

Yes, I know you said the last rise wasn't impulsive, but...

It appears this Elliott Wave count is also expecting a pullback, before resuming higher.

I didnt really understand about elliot wave but I know a guy that made script/indicator on tradingview and he is quite famous and here is the image using that script can you tell me more about it.



here is the link to the chart https://www.tradingview.com/chart/p4CswcCz/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSD

One of the most commonly misunderstood subjects is the interplay between "technicals" and "fundamentals". The mistake is thinking they aren't two sides of the same coin.

Wow, I applaud the OP for this technical analysis although one issue I have with EW is it mainly deals with technical but sudden market volatility fundamental news can change it's directions making me to lose counts several times. Identifying and labelling the waves can be confusing at times. Thanks to the OP.

MAR 2024 to AUG 2025 would be quite a long sideways fluctuation with eventual decline —it would make it one of the longest such sideways price action usually relegated to larger degree waves, hence probably unlikely.

As the much hyped bull run seems to fizzle, I am sharing one of my current most probable scenarios, that I would personally hate to happen:

We may be going to reach the bottom of wave 2 only around August 2025, in a Covid like crash. And then a new ATH, of about 300 K$, will come only in 2027.

Yes, that is possible, a truncated failed wave.

However, the subsequent uptrend wave after the supposed failed wave is appearing corrective at the moment.

It is clear that we have to wait for levels to be broken to confirm where we are going.

Could the fall from 25/Aug-6/Sep be a wave failure?
Would that be the explanation for the correction ending there, although I don't think I've seen wave failures in your counts.