I do believe that there is a good chance we could make a decent return thanks to using automated tools but the reality is that we are talking about something that is automated, as in preprogrammed.
It means that when there are chances in the crypto market we may end up seeing something that we never expected before and that is the risk we are taking, I am not really interested in taking those type of risks, it is really not that smart to let something automating handle all the things I should be doing manually, if the situation changes then automated can't change itself, it is not like some smart AI, it is just some programming, whereas I myself can change whatever I want according to the situation at hand. Which is why I never really enjoyed automated tools, bots or whatever, they are good for a while, but in the long term they are too dangerous and risky.
Topic: How can prediction results affect the actual market? - page 2. (Read 509 times)
Forecasting tools may have value when you are trying to predict the weather (and even there they are more often than not quite bad depending on the time horizon of course), but in markets forecasting tools are problematic as they never catch the critical outliers that can destroy your investment totally. The reason it sometimes works is because everyone uses the same tools and they function like a sort of shelling point then. That sets free a herd movement towards that new price point. The question then becomes who chooses the smartest spot to sell before everyone else takes the opportunity.
This is not wrong, I have used many trading tools before but they are all the same, if it works this time does not mean it will work next time, the failure is that the bigger the loss. The best is to go for good coins like bitcoin, ethereum and binance coin when the price has decreased already, they all follow the price of bitcoin, wait for the price to decrease and buy. If the price has increasesld then sell, this is working for me. Yes, if you go for the bigger market cap coins with a positive history, outliers aren't a problem. Those coins can of course also drop in price sharply, but they will return back to normal. That might be very different for low market cap coins that after dropping sharply in value just die subsequently or don't recover fully ever.
Firstly, No one is perfect and the reality is "crypto industry is always unable to predict". For example, a few are able to understood the biggest bull run of the beginning of this year. Secondly, don't go for anyone predict if you don't know that person/institutions welly. Rather focus one or two currency at a time, collect news for fundamental analysis and take position according to your asset if you think that is best for you but Don't rely on any tools blindly
Regarding forecasting tools, everyone will look at them, but they will not fully believe them, because many forecasting tools are not very accurate and sometimes change. You can observe how some whales work. If the prediction is accurate, everyone should now become millionaires, and the price of cryptocurrencies is likely to rise wildly because of the word "more optimistic" by whales. Some people will panic when the whale suddenly flips a coin, and follow the whale to sell their coins, causing the coins to fall. These are all sudden.
Forecasting tools may have value when you are trying to predict the weather (and even there they are more often than not quite bad depending on the time horizon of course), but in markets forecasting tools are problematic as they never catch the critical outliers that can destroy your investment totally. The reason it sometimes works is because everyone uses the same tools and they function like a sort of shelling point then. That sets free a herd movement towards that new price point. The question then becomes who chooses the smartest spot to sell before everyone else takes the opportunity.
In my opinion, the results of the predictions have no effect on the market. If there is something that can affect the market, then the prediction is who will do it. I am sure, certainly not ordinary people, surely the people who give the prediction results are people who are already so smart in influencing the market.
Regarding forecasting tools, everyone will look at them, but they will not fully believe them, because many forecasting tools are not very accurate and sometimes change. You can observe how some whales work. If the prediction is accurate, everyone should now become millionaires, and the price of cryptocurrencies is likely to rise wildly because of the word "more optimistic" by whales. Some people will panic when the whale suddenly flips a coin, and follow the whale to sell their coins, causing the coins to fall. These are all sudden.
In theory, yes prediction can affect the actual market, it's called self-fulfilling prophecy. However, it needs everyone to believe in one particular prediction, which is improbable since people have different prediction/opinion. Thus, influencers try to push people to believe in certain prediction, hoping to achieve the mentioned phenomenon. It's also common in the stock market where the news pushed through TV and other media, but I can't recall if there is any case of this become successful. Some research, however, links this strategy to negative performance (just google it).
I've been thinking that now there are many market prediction projects. I'm using X predict market for example.
People will be able to somehow know the market anticipation in advance. Like will the price of btc rise or decrease?
But this information might change participators' choices again, how should we adjust our strategy according to this kind of information?
We must first know what is the meaning of prediction. The prediction is only part of the guess that can be right or not. That is, the prediction of the market does not have a definite effect. Because there is a lot of information related to strategies related to current market conditions. That's my opinion. People will be able to somehow know the market anticipation in advance. Like will the price of btc rise or decrease?
But this information might change participators' choices again, how should we adjust our strategy according to this kind of information?
But this information might change participators' choices again, how should we adjust our strategy according to this kind of information?
Then stay away from any predictions and focus on your own. As you said, those informations can change trader's point of view. There are lots of predictions and speculations, with or without support that spread everywhere. It's fine to pick a few of those to act as your reference.
However, what about just trusting your own judgement on making your own technical analysis. Self-research, self-analysis, self-data gathering etc.
In that way, there will be no distractions while at the same time, you are enhancing your trading knowledge and skills.
I've been thinking that now there are many market prediction projects. I'm using X predict market for example.
People will be able to somehow know the market anticipation in advance. Like will the price of btc rise or decrease?
But this information might change participators' choices again, how should we adjust our strategy according to this kind of information?
So far, as long as I'm trading cryptocurrencies on exchanges, I will never be able to predict cryptocurrency price movements correctly because cryptocurrency price movements can't be controlled by anyone, including Elon Musk who some time ago tried to move bitcoin and dogecoin prices but finally in reality he unable to do so.People will be able to somehow know the market anticipation in advance. Like will the price of btc rise or decrease?
But this information might change participators' choices again, how should we adjust our strategy according to this kind of information?
I've been thinking that now there are many market prediction projects. I'm using X predict market for example.
People will be able to somehow know the market anticipation in advance. Like will the price of btc rise or decrease?
But this information might change participators' choices again, how should we adjust our strategy according to this kind of information?
So far, as long as I'm trading cryptocurrencies on exchanges, I will never be able to predict cryptocurrency price movements correctly because cryptocurrency price movements can't be controlled by anyone, including Elon Musk who some time ago tried to move bitcoin and dogecoin prices but finally in reality he unable to do so. People will be able to somehow know the market anticipation in advance. Like will the price of btc rise or decrease?
But this information might change participators' choices again, how should we adjust our strategy according to this kind of information?
I've been thinking that now there are many market prediction projects. I'm using X predict market for example.
People will be able to somehow know the market anticipation in advance. Like will the price of btc rise or decrease?
But this information might change participators' choices again, how should we adjust our strategy according to this kind of information?
Pure speculation. It doesn't have much affect on the market because the prediction might happen or might not. We have seen many people saying that the price of bitcoin will go below $25,000 USD. Some even say that the price might go below $10,000 USD within the end of the month. While others are saying that the price might skyrocket above $100,000 at the end of the year. But it doesn't happen. Kinda feels like most predictions are just a tactic to spread FUDs. Don't rely on those information. Just keep yourself updated with current events and then you will get a feeling what might happen to the price next. People will be able to somehow know the market anticipation in advance. Like will the price of btc rise or decrease?
But this information might change participators' choices again, how should we adjust our strategy according to this kind of information?
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Expect the panic when a certain coin gets reported it will go down sooner in price, and from that take it as an opportunity to buy more. This applies to me in Bitcoin, and I am not sure if those applies in other coins since many alts are gonna end up a shitcoin when dumped by the investors.
Right but for the shit coins to be dumped it doesn't even need bad news!
Regarding Bitcoin I think buying the dip with a reasonable amount is almost never a mistake. If you have good financial management and don't go all in with your cash when Bitcoin drops 10%, I think you are good to go. The more it goes down, the higher the room for it to go up again. The most important variable I think is time. It may not recover tomorrow, but it probably will eventually.
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Expect the panic when a certain coin gets reported it will go down sooner in price, and from that take it as an opportunity to buy more. This applies to me in Bitcoin, and I am not sure if those applies in other coins since many alts are gonna end up a shitcoin when dumped by the investors.
I've been thinking that now there are many market prediction projects. I'm using X predict market for example.
I don't believe in such predictors and I suggest you to not blindly follow any such predictions either. Look the predictions made are based on either analysis or hype and I can tell you easily that when you yourself analyze the market, you make predictions and speculation based on some facts and market data while if you rely on others doing it for you, it might be purely based on hype.People will be able to somehow know the market anticipation in advance. Like will the price of btc rise or decrease?
That's a myth, there's no one ever who can know the market movement in advance unless they are a whale who knows how to manipulate the market or is part of such groups who manipulate the market.How do these predictions affect the market? The same as Elon Musk's tweets, they do nothing but create a particular sentiment in our mind which then affects the market as they want.
it doesnt have an effect because it was only a prediction but what can affect the market is if theres an action given or theres action given along with that prediction that have been made ex. people will start buying btc now because they predicted that btc will rise ,
it will rise because theres a demand going on .
it will rise because theres a demand going on .
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But this information might change participators' choices again, how should we adjust our strategy according to this kind of information?
dont use prediction tools if you will change your mind because its useless but you can just depend on your own skill . 
But this information might change participators' choices again, how should we adjust our strategy according to this kind of information?
No one can guarantee 100% accuracy that people only rely on information that is considered relevant, for example information based on trusted media sources. and it's not easy to find. most of the consumption of inappropriate information and do not re-clarification will be very vulnerable to some wrong decisions to choose the project. So the anticipation that is often used is to make various options for each factor and draw conclusions based on the range of data accuracy values.It's like guess that Suns are playing the game at home court, they will win but we all saw what happened with the Bucks made a big comeback and won the road game. You can predict how things may look but cannot guarantee anything.
I've been thinking that now there are many market prediction projects. I'm using X predict market for example.
People will be able to somehow know the market anticipation in advance. Like will the price of btc rise or decrease?
But this information might change participators' choices again, how should we adjust our strategy according to this kind of information?
It will effect peoples investment as much as it does in other investment markets but it would be hard to find out weather people predicting the prices effect Bitcoin a lot because there is no way to measure it and you can't adjust your strategy. The only exception to this would be if Elon Musk or a similar celebrity made the prediction. People will be able to somehow know the market anticipation in advance. Like will the price of btc rise or decrease?
But this information might change participators' choices again, how should we adjust our strategy according to this kind of information?
But this information might change participators' choices again, how should we adjust our strategy according to this kind of information?
No one can guarantee 100% accuracy that people only rely on information that is considered relevant, for example information based on trusted media sources. and it's not easy to find. most of the consumption of inappropriate information and do not re-clarification will be very vulnerable to some wrong decisions to choose the project. So the anticipation that is often used is to make various options for each factor and draw conclusions based on the range of data accuracy values.
Think about all the misinformation that is spread during political elections. People fall for it and the reason is that these misinformation campaigns become more and more sophisticated. For example, even scam projects can go to Coindesk, pay them $5000 and get a spot to place a guest article about their project. That is really an issue because you think Coindesk is a trusted source and although they mark it as "not endorsing" or something like that, a lot of readers feel as if Coindesk legitimizes the project in a certain way, but they don't.
But this information might change participators' choices again, how should we adjust our strategy according to this kind of information?
No one can guarantee 100% accuracy that people only rely on information that is considered relevant, for example information based on trusted media sources. and it's not easy to find. most of the consumption of inappropriate information and do not re-clarification will be very vulnerable to some wrong decisions to choose the project. So the anticipation that is often used is to make various options for each factor and draw conclusions based on the range of data accuracy values.
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