Hi all, new to Bitcointalk but huge supporter. I do have many thoughts on the problems we face as a bitcoin community and getting global adoption. It’s certainly possible, but will just take a lot of effort from the community on the dev front, education of the masses, and really convincing companies and governments to get on board. I think there are a few key areas of focus in my opinion;
1. Adoption by ‘average person’ (relies heavily on all below items)
2. Adoption and acceptance by retailers and businesses
3. Adoption and support from financial institutions
4. Allowance from governments
I think the end goal is really to have global adoption of bitcoin, which means that it needs to be much more widespread than current form. My points are stemmed from a background in corporate finance and banking, rather than the sole investment perspective. It's great to invest and hold bitcoin, but the real value is driven if there are continual transactions and an active market place. If there isn't liquidity and use case and utility, then people will not invest in mining, and average people will feel discouraged to get involved for fear of being 'taken'. We really want the average person to be able to buy bitcoin as an investment, but simultaneously have the ability to walk into a Walmart and buy a new tv, or a restaurant and buy a burger and a beer with that bitcoin. The issue with viewing bitcoin as solely an investment and holding on undermines the core purpose of it, so simply advising people to buy and hold is not a good strategy to get the masses in the movement. Take, for example, if there were 10,000 that discovered gold for the first time (back in the day). Had they decided gold, as a precious metal (commodity) is a great investment and simply held on until some later date when they could sell gold to others, there wouldn’t be a market for it, and the masses would not even consider purchasing gold. To really get people into the market, there needs to be active sellers and buyers, and use cases. Gold is interesting in that it has three core values, it’s held as an investment because of its consideration as a precious metal, it also can be used as a medium of exchange because it has the store of value and more recently it has utility and use as a key substance in electronics. For the masses to really adopt bitcoin, it needs to be shown that it can become all three. I’m sure that most of us already believe that bitcoin does contain all three of these value cases, but simply need to convince the rest of the world it can be used these ways. Thus, the need for large retailers and business adoption.
2. Large retailers are needed to help average people see that bitcoin can be traded for investment and also used to buy stuff. If an Amazon or Alibaba were to start accepting bitcoin, this would be huge for the community and bitcoin market. The issue for these companies that bitcoin needs to overcome is two main items of concern: the first is the acceptance of bitcoin by its suppliers, the second is the liquidity and volatility, both of which are somewhat interrelated. Obviously for Amazon, when they receive bitcoin in exchange for something, they want the ability to pay their supplier for that good. If, however, they set the price in BTC, then the supplier needs to accept that at the time equivalent wholesale price in BTC. For that supplier to accept that BTC amount/price, it would need to be able to pay for the underlying parts in BTC. So then we see that it’s not just Amazon accepting bitcoin, but really the whole system from start to finish. Now the alternative to this is if Amazon were to accept bitcoin and then flip it into USD or local currency immediately. However, with high volumes, the transaction processing time and liquidity of the market does not lend itself for Amazon to quickly convert BTC to fiat money and reduce it’s exposure. If Amazon were to sell goods for BTC, and not immediately convert it to USD, then it’s in a huge exposed position to crypto risk. One option is to hedge this with the new CBOE contracts, however given the volatility of BTC, this may be quite an expensive hedge, especially if AMZN cannot accurately predict what percentage of sales may be in BTC rather than fiat money. This is where financial institutions are needed.
3. Financial institutions (broker/dealers, banks) are necessary in providing liquidity for markets, derivatives to reduce exposed positions, and for depositories options to earn interest and borrow. The marketplace for BTC would need to be established with exchanges of significantly higher liquidity, which can only really be established using financial institutions. Individuals cannot be active enough or hold enough on hand to really perform this function. The problem is of course providing liquidity without charging fees (an underlying advantage of BTC over all fiat and commodities)! So how do we incentivize financial institutions to participate?
4. Governments probably pose the largest threat to BTC however. Governments are in the business of control, and of course bitcoin eliminates that control. I don’t have a great answer, except that we need to change the way governments view bitcoin. One of the biggest issues for governements, especially those that love to control their currencies and borders (ie China, Korea, Argentina, Brazil…) is monitoring the capital and trade flows. But if they don’t have a way to track these, they would be reluctant to play along (until of course they read some basic economic literature in reference to the clear advantages of an open policy vs closed policy). Would it ever make sense to add in some tracking of the trends and flows of BTC, not on an individual basis, but on a large macro level?