Good day, esteem members of this prestigious forum, please do not find this question unnecessary, I need experienced investors who knows that understanding charts is part of investment strategy and means to maximize profit, enlighten us on bitcoin charts. If there is any thread explaining chart, please kindly drop their link.
I know there are different types of charts, you can Explain the chart you know in it's simplest form.
If you are a short term trader, understanding charts and making investment decisions on bitcoin will yield you better results than trading recklessly based on luck. If you are an investor just like me, then obviously bitcoin would rise no matter what based on the adoption criteria in the next cycle. With regards to the charts, there are multiple ones to be read for making better trading decisions. A few popular ones which I follow personally are :
1.
The Stock-to-Flow Model :
Stock-to-Flow popularly known as S2F was created by twitter user PlanB back in 2019 and they have gained significant traction ever since the creation. S2F charts seemed to have worked for majority of the time and Bitcoin price movements tend to resonate them occasionally. Bitcoin is a scarce digital asset similar to Gold and the total supply is limited which can be mined completely in another 10 decades. Throughout this timeframe, the amount of new bitcoins mined will vary as like the stock which will be held by governments and individuals corporations alike. S2F ratio of Gold as of 2019 at the time of writing was 62 i.e it takes 62 years for the gold to reach the current stock. Similarly, Bitcoin had a SF ratio of 22 during the 2017 bull run. Higher the SF, higher the price hikes. You can read more about S2F in PlanB's
original Medium post.
2.
Historical Volatility Chart :
Long gone are the days when Bitcoin was considered to be a Medium of Exchange similar to a currency. Bitcoin has been considered to be a digital replacement of Gold and for the assumption to remain consistent, it should grow in price steadily. Too much pump and dump on a short term basis would ruin the asset class. As days passes by and more and more adoption kicks in, volatility of Bitcoin would go down drastically similar to Gold and would stabilize at sometime in the future. Coinglass
Historical Volatility Chart is helpful to understand about the volatility and price actions of Bitcoin historically.
3.
Candlestick Chart :
Candlestick Chart as the name suggests has been used since the age old periods for various assets throughout the history. Investing.com provides a
good chart for analyzing the prices and making trading decisions of Bitcoin.
4.
Rainbow Chart :
This chart was initially created to show the Bitcoin prices but over the span of years, they turned out to be relatively accurate. Later, @
Trolololo created
Logarithmic Regression model which was further helpful to predict the future movements in prices. The Rainbow chart can be better viewed at
blockchaincenter.net5.
Miner Capitulation Chart :
I think the explanation from bitbo.io might be suffice and provide a much better view on this chart.
In Bitcoin, profitability for miners is a function of the Bitcoin price and the cost for the miner to buy electricity to mine. When the price drops, less efficient miners are forced off the network because the bitcoins they earn are not worth the cost to mine. Many miners keep some or all of the bitcoins they mine in order to sell them in a bull market and get maximum value for them. The thinking in a “miner capitulation” scenario is that as the price drops and some miners are forced off the network, they will sell these reserve bitcoins, causing the price to drop further. In a worst case scenario, this could cause a “death spiral” in the price of bitcoin as you have continuous selling pressure on the price of bitcoin and a cascading effect wherein the lower price takes out more and more efficient mining operations until there are none left.
This chart provides a much better idea on how prices react after the halving during each and every cycle since the charts are placed side by side.