How do we separate the fundamental value from the speculative value - page 2.

knightcoin

full member

Activity: 238

Merit: 100

Stand on the shoulders of giants

Quote from: Peter R on April 20, 2014, 11:20:44 AM

Quote from: right wing authoritarian on April 20, 2014, 01:56:21 AM

How guys I am trying to work out some new ways of valuing bitcoin.

Obviously the price reflects bitcoin's real value as a medium of exchange as well as a speculative price based on expectations of increased value in the future. What I want to know is how to separate the two in some kind of rational way?

All suggestions welcome

I've been promoting my Metcalfe Valuation technique here at the forum. It is based on Metcalfe's Law that says the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of nodes. This model has fit surprisingly well over the last four years and would suggest that if bitcoin use and adoption continue to grow, so will bitcoin's market cap:

As a networking geek I luv it, felt like we're pulling cables, pumblimg, etc

( ps for some reason reminsds me Sue, I lmao .. on that show ... she's adorable and after 2 glasses of wine she's amazing )

http://packetpushers.net/show-117-a-rope-a-chair-and-helping-hands-sue-hares-and-the-ietf/

Peter R

legendary

Activity: 1162

Merit: 1007

Quote from: right wing authoritarian on April 20, 2014, 01:56:21 AM

How guys I am trying to work out some new ways of valuing bitcoin.

Obviously the price reflects bitcoin's real value as a medium of exchange as well as a speculative price based on expectations of increased value in the future. What I want to know is how to separate the two in some kind of rational way?

All suggestions welcome

I've been promoting my Metcalfe Valuation technique here at the forum. It is based on Metcalfe's Law that says the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of nodes. This model has fit surprisingly well over the last four years and would suggest that if bitcoin use and adoption continue to grow, so will bitcoin's market cap:

Dalmar

hero member

Activity: 1106

Merit: 500

Life is short, practice empathy in your life

Look at old trend lines. You can estimate what the fair value of bitcoin is today without rampant speculation. Currently it is somewhere between 375 (most bullish) and 100 (most bearish case) on bitstamp.

knightcoin

full member

Activity: 238

Merit: 100

Stand on the shoulders of giants

Real value is always related to time/function ( like in real-time ) that a trade can be made, for instance... you have an orange and want to trade it for an apple, so in order to trade you need to find somebody who thinks his apple has less value than your orange or vice-versa ( check http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_market_efficiency ). From an exchange point of view...for me is like the real-time that the machting engine system finds the agreement between buyer and seller ... also called "touchline prices" anything out of that moment is king of speculative margin ...

so except you're atomic quant trader, it's all related to time-frames ... would you make a bitcoin contract price from here to 10 years ahead ? or whould you preffer trade at 5 minutes timeframe ? Cheesy

right wing authoritarian

member

Activity: 73

Merit: 10

Hey guys I am trying to work out some new ways of valuing bitcoin.

Obviously the price reflects bitcoin's fundamental value as a medium of exchange as well as a speculative value based on expectations of increased value in the future. What I want to know is how to separate the two in some kind of rational way?

All suggestions welcome

Topic: How do we separate the fundamental value from the speculative value - page 2. (Read 2078 times)