Topic: How do you consider the prospects of global economy in 2024? (Read 374 times)

It looks like the global economy will continue to deteriorate this year. Due to Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine, which has been going on for three years now, the countries of the European Union have also felt a real danger from Russia. Trump's pre-election statements that the United States will not provide assistance to NATO countries and that NATO should be disbanded altogether are also causing confusion. Therefore, European countries are sharply increasing spending on the army and defense, the military industry is loaded with orders at full capacity. This, of course, increases the number of jobs, but the economy does not grow from this, because useful GDP is not added due to the increased production of tanks, guns and other deadly weapons.
There is also the possibility of further expansion of the military conflict and more states being directly drawn into it. French President Macron recently announced that he would send his troops into Ukraine to assist it if the front moves towards Odessa or Kyiv.
https://www.ukr.net/ru/news/details/politics/103193522.html

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://rg.ru/2024/03/08/lindpendant-makron-vvedet-vojska-na-ukrainu-pri- ugroze-poteri-kieva-i-odessy.html&ved=2ahUKEwjbkYT_s-WEAxU51wIHHT0oBwMQFnoECBcQAQ&usg=AOvVaw3pHjKfjdl3vFN3jNWQRzqF

As reality has shown - the "second army of the world" and "unparalleled armament" of Russia turned out to be a fake This is a fact that Russia and its supporters will have to come to terms with. To consider as a success the capture (or rather the complete destruction of a small town) in almost a year, by "the second army of the world + the strongest economy in the world", which was defeated by "the worthless army of Ukraine, partially armed with bad Western weapons" - it is ridiculous....

But back to the economy - we can assume good chances for the same India - to buy Russian oil for pennies or in exchange for bananas - it can really boost the economy ! The same schemes will be used by other countries, I realize that the prospects of Russia are very gloomy, and it is ready to give resources in exchange for anything ! So for some countries 24/25 years will be very positive in terms of economic performance !

IMO, when the FED starts decreasing the rates, the crisis will become something "mainstream", due to the inflation, I guess that price decrease will not be that noticeable

Even if the Republicans win the US elections, Trump will not necessarily win. Nikki Haley also has some chances from the Republican Party, and they have been growing lately. But even if Trump wins, it is not necessary that he will fulfill his campaign promises. In addition, he will not decide on assistance to Ukraine himself. He may be forced to do so by Congress or other forces.
And it’s not only the United States that provides assistance to Ukraine. Now Europe is increasing the production of military equipment and ammunition and, first of all, the needs of Ukraine will be met. So Russia cannot seize Ukraine. Don't even dream.

The fact that Ukraine has been holding back the onslaught of such a “superpower” as the Russian Federation, which has the “second army of the world” for two years, is its great military achievement. Russia has now sent an army of half a million to Ukraine and is attacking it with all possible types of weapons (except nuclear), but the front is practically standing still. Moreover, stocks of artillery, tanks and armored vehicles, as well as their shells and missiles, are being depleted at a rapid pace. Another year of such intense fighting and Russia will have nothing to fight with. Despite the fact that Russia has transferred its economy to a war footing and maximally increased the production of weapons, almost everything from the assembly line is sent directly to the front. But this turns out to be not enough. Because of this, Russia begged a million shells from North Korea, has been supplying drones from Iran and China for a long time, and is violating its previously signed contracts for the supply of its weapons to other countries.

But a very interesting situation is now happening with the Russian Black Sea Fleet, which Ukraine regularly sinks with its own missiles and drones. The last to be sunk on February 1 was the missile boat "Ivanovets", (56 meters long, 10 meters wide, with a displacement of 493 tons and a crew of 36 people), which was on patrol near the occupied Crimean Peninsula and its supersonic anti-ship missiles "Moskit" P-270 range 130 km. threatened the “grain corridor” from Ukrainian seaports. She was attacked and sunk by several Ukrainian-made surface drones and sunk after forty minutes of battle.

Ukraine, having practically no fleet of its own, is actively defeating the Russian fleet and has already driven it out of the north-west of the Black Sea, thereby resuming pre-war trade volumes on the international market, which Russia had previously blocked with its fleet and aircraft.

From the very beginning of Russia’s attack on it, Ukraine did not ask for military assistance from other countries, while at the same time NATO countries were really afraid of engaging in direct military action with their troops against Russia. But already now, at the level of individual politicians, some situations are being discussed in which NATO will be able to provide assistance with its soldiers on the territory of Ukraine in its war against Russia.

The only NATO nation that is having a proper well prepared military is Turkey. And if there is a confrontation between NATO and Russia, in all probability the Turks are going to stay neutral. In all the other NATO nations, military is in very poor shape. And this is especially true in European nations. In the US, they still have a large pool of recruits coming from impoverished rural areas (mostly racial minorities), but this is not the case with European nations such as Germany and France. Russia on the other hand can still build an army of millions from available reserves.

I would say for one that it might have a little to do with the region or individual countries, because while some leaders may enforce rules and regulations that may affect interest rates as well as exchange rates, others may well want to wait for their trade counterparts or those regions that share a special work-trade relationship to have a steadier market or economic value index before doing or enacting similar steps to affect their own economy.

We are in the times where the BRICS countries are clamouring for acceptance and well, the Russian - Ukraine war, as well as the Covid 19 pandemic, did more than just to enforce new trade rules and patterns thus creating alternatives and diversifying the economic strength of several countries.

This year would be bullish for the better part because last year was where things began to dip further.
I believe it gets worse before it gets better, and as such, the economy of my country could get stronger if new currencies or trade currencies is considered and explored for payments and transactions within and across borders or BRICS currency is simply adopted.

Did they never ask, or did NATO and its allies refuse requests to send troops? Because if they do so they will have to confront Russia directly. This is something even the US does not want, let alone NATO countries that are still completely dependent on the US.

The war is still going on and there is no end, we should wait until the war ends to know who is the winner and who is the loser. Stop spreading fake news about Russia weakening and Ukraine rising...I heard this a year ago and so far, I have not seen any significant achievements from Ukraine and NATO in the war with Russia.

Be careful not to tell him about NATO losing to a prison called Gaza for the past 119 days having sustained thousands of casualties

Not to mention Yemen, the poorest Arab country having shut down the entire Suez Canal, Red Sea, Bab al-Mandab strait, Gulf of Aden and even parts of the Indian ocean on two of the NATO members US and UK and some other tiny contributors; and have already attacked dozens of their ships and warships

I project the same happening in 2023 regarding the global economy in 2024 as well, nothing much will be different since not much hope and improvements are seen in most of the global countries till now. Fine, many countries will get farther out of the woods, especially the US which is planning to start cutting rates this year. If the inflation is not subsiding, they will not be thinking in that regard. The inflation in the country, though not at the best level, but has significantly subsided in issues compared to what we experienced in 2021 and 2022. The situation was able to be handled carefully as I expected, so we can expect a better projection for such a country among others.

However, I fear that developing and third-world countries will not be able to do same, they do not just have the clue aside that they are not advantaged when it comes to resources in most cases. I also predict more humanitarian crises in such countries, more will slip into the poverty level and hunger might be everywhere. This is mainly because the induced inflation can't be bated by them, while there are many other internal problems even as their government mostly are not helping, corruption is the order of the day, and are clues. Many global countries are just not in capable hands, and for this, it will be a mixed economy in the world this year.

Some countries that are better managed will smile and shine, while others that are poorly managed will be worse affected.

NATO does not protect and did not intend to protect the territory of Ukraine. NATO countries only provide assistance to Ukraine financially, materially, including with weapons, so that Ukraine has the opportunity to defend itself against an aggressor that is superior to it in all respects. But Ukraine never asked for help from Europe or NATO countries with troops.

Now the Russians have been attacking Ukraine for four months along the entire front, which exceeds a thousand kilometers, and every day they are losing about a thousand of their soldiers. To date, according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, Russian casualties amount to 387,060 people. According to the Russian Federation, which on January 29 was reported to Patrushev, and not to Putin, who may no longer be alive, Russia has irretrievable losses of 392,614 military personnel and 76,000 Wagner troops, and a total of 468,624 people. Yes, Russians are still going into battle and dying. But humanoid rams will also end someday. Many will then wonder why they should go to another country and die. Ukraine has never represented and does not pose a potential danger to Russia. Moreover, Ukraine voluntarily abandoned the third largest arsenal of nuclear weapons in the world and transferred it to Russia along with numerous aircraft and missiles that are now being used on Ukrainian territory.

These questions are already being asked, especially on the outskirts, which the Kremlin uses as expendable material much more. Then big problems will begin in Russia itself.

In addition, the current war in Ukraine shows the great advantage of high-precision weapons and the presence of a large number of soldiers ready to go into battle offsets this. It seems that in the future it will be precision weapons that will have a significant impact on the outcome of this and future wars. And in Russia there are already problems with this in front of the weapons of NATO countries and in connection with its international isolation, these problems will only deepen.

Another thing to consider would be the demographics of the world. Almost all of the major economies has a decreasing population. Due to that condition, the demand for valuable goods and service would keep on decreasing.
Illegal immigration of unskilled and uneducated people from third world countries to the developed countries would decrease the quality of life for everyone. This would be more visible in European countries.
US might have capacity to take in more illegal immigrants without any issues but it's internal and external politics would bring major disrupt towards its economy.
Even though there's a rise in renewable energy resources, the number of wars being fought would increase the demand of fossil fuel and metals.
IMF have recently forecasted a better growth rate in 2024 compared to 2023 for most economies.

LOL.. NATO has so far failed to defend Ukrainian territory against Russian invasion, and you are saying that they will be able to do that in Russian territory? The biggest advantage with Russia is that they have a pool of several million reserve soldiers who are not afraid to go to the battle. The same can be said about Ukraine as well, but the numbers are in hundreds of thousands and definitely not in millions. None of the NATO nations have this advantage. If the UK or Germany lose a few thousand of their soldiers, then there will be a lot of hue and cry, and the governments will be toppled.

You say that as if NATO is directly at war with Russia. So far, Ukrainians are fighting with the Russians, defending themselves from attack, and NATO is only providing rather weak assistance to Ukraine. There are no NATO military units in Ukraine. At the time of the Ukrainian counteroffensive last summer, Ukraine did not have air superiority, and was also inferior in the number of artillery, armored vehicles and the number of troops. With such a balance of forces and means, one cannot count on the success of a counteroffensive. And then, out of fear, the Russians mined entire territories on the contact line, placing up to eight anti-tank and anti-personnel mines on every meter. Not a single army in the world would agree to launch an offensive in such a balance of power. But Ukrainians fight not with numbers, but with ingenuity and skill. As a result, almost the entire professional army of the Russian invasion of Ukraine was destroyed.

Now the occupiers have also been carrying out their offensive along the entire front since the beginning of October, that is, for almost four months. As a result, figuratively speaking, they captured several houses and one garbage dump, killing several tens of thousands of soldiers and several hundred armored vehicles.

If NATO enters into a war with Russia, it will end very quickly, and not in Russia’s favor.

One can only hope so because I don't think the global economy can endure the consequences of the US proxy war with China.
However, they've said this before too. With pretty much the same language too "We don't support independence" but then they sent Pelosi to Taiwan and increased weapons sale!

That's true but remember that they weren't bored in Washington one day that they decided to start this proxy war. They were seeking to contain China and significantly damage its economy and expansion. If they don't start that war, China will continue getting bigger. This proxy war is not something US can postpone!

I don't think this is a Republican/Democrat thing, there are certain things that everyone in US regime agrees on. They may only have different approaches and in some details.
The NATO vs Russia thing is the same as NATO vs China thing. They have certain goals they won't stop without achieving some of them at least.

All wars end with a negotiation but for NATO (which is basically US dictating everything of it) to enter negotiation phase they have to have some advantage or have some wins on the battlefield. So far they have none otherwise they've been trying to get there. In fact the largely advertised "counter attack" months ago was supposed to be that "win" they needed. Ukraine was supposed to gain some ground defeating Russia in some fronts then they could start negotiating a truce and hope to stop the invasion by having some advantage over the Russians.

What can they do now though? What advantage does NATO have over Russia? The counter attack failed because Ukrainians listened to US/NATO and postponed it so much that Russia fortified its positions making any counter attack impossible.
And at the same time Russian advances is getting faster these days (some say at 2x the normal speed and it is winter). They can't negotiate anything with Russia at this point since they have nothing to bring to the negotiation table. Russia will demand a lot and the smallest one would be complete withdrawal of NATO from Russian borders. That term alone means they can't end the war with Russia regardless of who is the POTUS!

P.S. Don't be fooled by Trump's advertisement when he says "he will end the war if he wins". He was saying the same exact thing in his previous advertisement and about ending the war in Afghanistan and exiting there too if he won. Years later his own defense secretary colonel Miller said it was all bullshit

And unfortunately they're right. The world wasn't ready. To be more precise, the world believed that it was possible to have partnership relations with all participants of the world community, that all agreements and obligations would be observed, that there could not be global terrorism in the modern world, including economic terrorism. A soft infantile community always loses to cynical criminals - these are the "laws of nature".
It is the global world destabilization that has become the "tool" that has been used with

There will be no war. Uncle Sam already stated they're not going to support Taiwan.


Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-us-does-not-support-taiwan-independence-2024-01-13/

Translation: Sorry guys, we don't have enough money to support you. We gave away too much money and military aid to Ukraine and Israel so you're now on your own. Nothing personal, just business.

Chances are, the Republicans are going to win in the US. Which means the war is going to stop (no chances for Ukraine without US support). 

Another important thing to consider this year is that 2024 is the year of elections. There are a bunch of elections that could change the course of the world this year.

For example the elections in Taiwan that was in January 13. I don't follow that closely but some summaries from reliable source I read say those who won, moved China and Taiwan a big step closer to war. We know that this war would affect the global economy and the size experts suggest is $10 trillion.

Other important elections are US presidential elections in November, Russian presidential election in March both of which could affect the proxy war going on between NATO and Russia and consequently the economy.
And of course a lot of other countries that are seeing significant changes in their political scene (like in Europe) moving towards more "radical parties" that are making more radical decisions for their country which makes things unpredictable.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_elections_in_2024

At least at this point, I think 2024 is probably better than 2023. The previous year was at the early stage of recovery from the pandemic. There was so much monetary injection earlier. There was the inflation rising way beyond targets. There was the Russian invasion. There was Israel attacking Gaza. Although the conflicts haven't ended yet, oftentimes, beginnings have a stronger impact at least economically. And the conflicts have winded down a bit. Although it seems a fresh round of trouble is brewing in the Middle East, that region isn't new to it.

But what's particularly interesting is that both positive and negative outlooks are valid from certain perspectives. In a way, my parents and grandparents' stories are similar in that both are characterized by economic struggles and challenges. Life back then was hard. This is a very common line among stories of old. And yet they carried on and life probably gets better year after year.

Inflation has slowed down considerably so hopefully the Fed and the ECB will lower rates and the economy will gain some momentum. Uncertainty remains high though... wars in Ukraine and Israel, the Houthis creating problems with shipping lanes, and most importantly the CCP in China, which is dealing with troubled internal situation and might look at Taiwan to regain some popularity with a crazy action.

In summary, things are getting better... but there are still a lot of things that could go bad. Just my 2c