How do you feel about high-profile traders making wrong calls ?

Strongkored

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Quote from: Len Saldua on February 20, 2024, 04:14:16 PM

I'll give you two examples: Garreth Soloway ( featured in Kitco a few times ) and Davinci ( early Bitcoin adopter )
They both shorted Bitcoin at 50K - 49K. And quite likely they're both getting liquidated soon.
To me it simply goes to show anyone can be wrong, and you shouldn't be certain of anything short term.

That's why in trading we can't just rely on signals or what experts say because they can be wrong, including us too.
Traders who like signals or are very dependent on signals should start learning to analyze and use signals as additional references, but decisions should be taken based on their own analysis, even if the results are wrong, it is much better because there is increased skill in our trading knowledge.

High profile or experts are actually not people who are free from mistakes and in the end they can become experts because they learn from mistakes and evaluations, but even that is not a guarantee that they will no longer make mistakes, so mistakes in trading are normal and not just for newbies but for all traders have made or will still make mistakes but as long as the end result is profit then you are still on the right path.

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Quote from: Len Saldua on February 20, 2024, 04:14:16 PM

I'll give you two examples: Garreth Soloway ( featured in Kitco a few times ) and Davinci ( early Bitcoin adopter )
They both shorted Bitcoin at 50K - 49K. And quite likely they're both getting liquidated soon.
To me it simply goes to show anyone can be wrong, and you shouldn't be certain of anything short term.

Well, that just shows that even the most expert ones can be wrong in their prediction.

I've heard the name "Garreth Soloway" already because he got interviewed by a YouTuber that I used to watch whenever he was making Technical Analysis on any markets. He also said in that interview that he predicts that Bitcoin will go as low as $10,000 again. BTW that interview was in 2022, and even though we're close to it ($17,000), we didn't reach that $10,000 price.

Anyway, why follow their calls? Can't make your call so you will just follow what experts are saying and come what may? What happens, happens. Is that how you treat investing? If that's the case then just stop investing. If you can't make your own decision when it comes to investing, just stop or you might lose even more money.

Yamifoud

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Quote from: Len Saldua on February 28, 2024, 12:14:20 PM

I think it's good to look at what "the smart money" is doing sometimes, and realize that they may not be as smart as we think they are.

Probably yes. Besides, we can't call them an expert or good trader if they don't experience losses in their trading career. Maybe I was wrong but this really happened because in the other way, losing would help us learn more and be an indication that we need to improve. If we are afraid to lose, well, I don't think we choose trading but rather be a silent rich investor who has no name and reputation so people don't care who we are.

Being smart about money is also to carefully choose where to use it. Trading is not a bad choice but the question is if we really have the capabilities to perform such high-risk.

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Quote from: Rengga Jati on February 28, 2024, 04:41:05 PM

Quote from: Len Saldua on February 20, 2024, 04:14:16 PM

I'll give you two examples: Garreth Soloway ( featured in Kitco a few times ) and Davinci ( early Bitcoin adopter )
They both shorted Bitcoin at 50K - 49K. And quite likely they're both getting liquidated soon.
To me it simply goes to show anyone can be wrong, and you shouldn't be certain of anything short term.

When someone, whether a professional trader, popular person, influencer, and other parties make some predictions, it doesn't mean that the prediction must always be 100% accurate. In trading predictions, this does not seem to mean whether the prediction is right or wrong, but rather whether it is close or still far away. Because that's what predictions are, whether they are made from methods and research that are quite in line with the analysis or just because of hope.

But what is certain is how we interpret the various predictions made by these people. If they are not correct in their predictions, don't blame their predictions. Because after all, the final decision for us to do something remains with us. They are only a matter of consideration, not to always be followed 100%.

You should always put it up into your mind that there's no such thing about 100% precise prediction no matter how known or popular those personalities are. This is why im not really that a fan on following those
people no matter how good they are or whatever reputation and popularity they do have. I would rather be trusting up my own analysis rather than on following their but somehow there might be some consdierations
in speaking about snipping some trading ideas with those so called known professionals or veterans of this market, on which you could really be able to snip out some ideas which it could be applied into yours.
The must thing to have as a trader is that you should really know on how to make use both TA and FA on which we know that it is really that relevant here on this space.

It might not really be giving out assurance but you are really that doing your very best on making the possible best approach towards on dealing with this unpredictable or random market.
There's no way that we can be able to make those precise predictions but at least we have done on what should be done rather than on having those random
and pure guess approach.

Rengga Jati

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Quote from: Len Saldua on February 20, 2024, 04:14:16 PM

I'll give you two examples: Garreth Soloway ( featured in Kitco a few times ) and Davinci ( early Bitcoin adopter )
They both shorted Bitcoin at 50K - 49K. And quite likely they're both getting liquidated soon.
To me it simply goes to show anyone can be wrong, and you shouldn't be certain of anything short term.

When someone, whether a professional trader, popular person, influencer, and other parties make some predictions, it doesn't mean that the prediction must always be 100% accurate. In trading predictions, this does not seem to mean whether the prediction is right or wrong, but rather whether it is close or still far away. Because that's what predictions are, whether they are made from methods and research that are quite in line with the analysis or just because of hope.

But what is certain is how we interpret the various predictions made by these people. If they are not correct in their predictions, don't blame their predictions. Because after all, the final decision for us to do something remains with us. They are only a matter of consideration, not to always be followed 100%.

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Quote from: Len Saldua on February 28, 2024, 12:14:20 PM

I think it's good to look at what "the smart money" is doing sometimes, and realize that they may not be as smart as we think they are.

There is a reason we call them smart money and not infallible money, more often than not they will take the right decision as they have a long history at looking at the markets, and that alone gives them a huge advantage over an investor that is just doing this for the first time, however the markets are unpredictable and they can take smart money by surprise as well, and what better example than what we are seeing with bitcoin right now, in which we are already above the 60k level, a level many thought we may not reach until 2025.

Len Saldua

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I think it's good to look at what "the smart money" is doing sometimes, and realize that they may not be as smart as we think they are.

Len Saldua

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Quote from: Len Saldua on February 20, 2024, 04:14:16 PM

I'll give you two examples: Garreth Soloway ( featured in Kitco a few times ) and Davinci ( early Bitcoin adopter )
They both shorted Bitcoin at 50K - 49K. And quite likely they're both getting liquidated soon.

LIQUIDATED !! Wow.

May I just add Davinci is a known whale and quite likely holds thousands of Bitcoins. Many people in the space consider him a legend.
Garreth Soloway is probably not a Bitcoin whale, but certainly a very rich trader featured in Kitco quite a few times.
Thomas Kralow ( another rich crypto trader running multiple companies and living in Dubai ) also shorted Bitcoin a few weeks ago, but I don't know how bad his losses are.

freedomgo

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Quote from: the rise on February 26, 2024, 05:35:59 PM

This shows that the market is fluctuating and cannot be predicted by anyone, even very well-known figures. From this, it is recommended that we carry out our own research on the market. With the abilities we have, we can analyze it personally without having to rely on other people, even someone who It is very well known to be wrong in predicting prices, so just be confident when you trade

Traders are still inevitable to losses regardless of higher positions or high-profile traders. So we don’t have to rely our success to them since no one gets perfect in trading. Everyone loses with such an unpredictable market. If you want to maximize winning in your trades, navigate your own potentials and develop your own skill and reliable strategies that will certainly work based on your trading style. There’s always a time for us to lose in trading, but we can always lessen them and use them for our own motivation to be more successful and profitable in trading.

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Quote from: Hamza2424 on February 20, 2024, 04:28:39 PM

Hmm, OP firstly make sure to choose the relevant section while posting any query in the form of a thread, this topic belongs to the trading section. At the same time, I don't follow the trading signals so it really doesn't matter what I think about their calls and I strongly oppose those who follow copy trading and other trading signal sources because such traders don't have a longer lifeline in the market.

Yeah anyone can be wrong but with a strategy where you've made an analysis and you were wrong there on that failure you experienced your strategy flaws and you can make it better for the next time and this option is not for those who are losing in the signals. Becasue the've not gained anything from there except losing their funds.

Hamza, rightly said, here. Knowledge is progressive and that applies to trading as well. For a trader to loss one or two trades is normal but when it's a consistent loss especially on a straight roll, it shows big and obvious flaws.

coolcoinz

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I don't care because I don't follow known traders. There's maybe one or two guys that I watch from time to time, one of them being Camel Finance on youtube and it feels like this guy is on the market with all of us, trying to make money and sharing his trades.

Also, I like bulls and people who don't shill shitcoins, just tell us how they see the market and don't make big mistakes. If you make a huge mistake, the way this Soloway did last year, or Tom Lee in 2017, or Tone Vays in 2020, you're dead to me. I'm not going to follow you.

tvplus006

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Quote from: Len Saldua on February 20, 2024, 04:14:16 PM

I'll give you two examples: Garreth Soloway ( featured in Kitco a few times ) and Davinci ( early Bitcoin adopter )

Does anyone know if Garreth Soloway is still holding and Davinci have their short positions on Bitcoin or they have already been liquidated after the price reached the level of 57,600 dollars? It is very interesting how such a drama ended.

the rise

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This shows that the market is fluctuating and cannot be predicted by anyone, even very well-known figures. From this, it is recommended that we carry out our own research on the market. With the abilities we have, we can analyze it personally without having to rely on other people, even someone who It is very well known to be wrong in predicting prices, so just be confident when you trade

kojektea

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It is normal that no one can predict the market 100% correctly, even seniors from the conclusion still do their own research and don't rely on big profiles or signal givers, if you do your own research you will feel more satisfied with the results. you get, besides that you will understand the market better, instead of depending on the signals people give, you only expect profits from other people, and you don't get your true self.

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Quote from: Len Saldua on February 20, 2024, 04:14:16 PM

I'll give you two examples: Garreth Soloway ( featured in Kitco a few times ) and Davinci ( early Bitcoin adopter )
They both shorted Bitcoin at 50K - 49K. And quite likely they're both getting liquidated soon.
To me it simply goes to show anyone can be wrong, and you shouldn't be certain of anything short term.

Bitcoin, the Pathfinder and crypto grandfather, zoomed passed $53k today. Those who took a short on it at $50k are in severe pain now, no doubt.

Anyway, concerning following anyone's calld blindly; the first thing anyone should realize is that those making the calls aren't supernatural beings. They're humans like us and are prone to mistakes and errors. At best, we all are speculators in this industry. There's no holy grail. No one knows it all. I don't like following anyone's calls but I can use their calls as a gauge for my trade by confirming if their calls align with what I see on my charts. If they say to short it but my charts say long it, I may not take the trade at all or take it based on my chart but with minimal risk. If they say short it and my chart says short it too, I will take the trade with ease and a slightly increased risk.

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Quote from: Len Saldua on February 20, 2024, 04:14:16 PM

I'll give you two examples: Garreth Soloway ( featured in Kitco a few times ) and Davinci ( early Bitcoin adopter )
They both shorted Bitcoin at 50K - 49K. And quite likely they're both getting liquidated soon.
To me it simply goes to show anyone can be wrong, and you shouldn't be certain of anything short term.

Of course anyone can be wrong because market movements are predictable at times and not predictable sometimes. If they always get it right it means they are manipulating the market, but sometimes they will get it wrong which shows that no one will perfectly predict market.
Depending on calls and signals from influencers or trading experts is not reliable, they can make wrong calls sometimes that’s why we always advise people to use the amount they can afford to lose and to also make their own research before starting.

Learn to be an expert so that you can depend on yourself.

GeorgeJohn

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Quote from: tvplus006 on February 21, 2024, 07:46:32 PM

Quote from: Len Saldua on February 20, 2024, 04:14:16 PM

...They both shorted Bitcoin at 50K - 49K. And quite likely they're both getting liquidated soon.
To me it simply goes to show anyone can be wrong, and you shouldn't be certain of anything short term.

No matter how experienced a trader is, he will still make mistakes. But he will have much fewer such mistakes than a novice trader. But the main difference between an experienced trader is that they adhere to the risk management strategy, and even if his position is liquidated, he will lose only 2-3% of his deposit, unlike a beginner who will lose the entire deposit.

Nobody today who is a trader that have not experienced different kind of mistakes during the time of trading anyone who claims that it has not experiences losses or mistake in Trading that person is not a good Trader that is from my own perspective I know that there must be an error elsewhere in trading that will make someone.

Quote from: Finestream on February 20, 2024, 07:52:58 PM

Quote from: Len Saldua on February 20, 2024, 04:14:16 PM

I'll give you two examples: Garreth Soloway ( featured in Kitco a few times ) and Davinci ( early Bitcoin adopter )
They both shorted Bitcoin at 50K - 49K. And quite likely they're both getting liquidated soon.
To me it simply goes to show anyone can be wrong, and you shouldn't be certain of anything short term.

There are no perfect traders in the market even if we say there are those high-profile traders. They are still susceptible to losses because they also go for wrong decisions that made them commit mistakes and eventually lose their funds. However, losing is part of trading and you won’t get to maximize your profits without enduring some losing moments. But with the experience and skills you gained as a long time trader, you learn to manage and avoid some losses because you’re getting better in your craft through consistent trading.

I do make my emphasis very clear that no one is a perfect trader and before you become a perfect Trader you have undergo different kind of losses in Trading because without experience in loss in Trading I don't think that you'll be able to to understand the protocols of trading so I don't agree with anybody who says that they are perfect in Trading the most that goes obstacle during the process of learning that makes them to be more inquisitive and the more conscious of what they are doing in Trading so that is my theoretical explanation concerning trading and it's profit.

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Quote from: joeperry on February 26, 2024, 04:02:50 AM

Personally I wouldn't be surprised. There's no man in the world can predict things 100% right but even if they make a wrong call that doesn't mean they are a failed trader, just like candlesticks, there's an ups and down and maybe that call is just a losing candle but if you are going to take a look in the bigger picture their profit is higher than their losses. That's why in technical trading you should do a back testing on how many wins and losses before you'll know if that strategy is profitable or not.

I agree that in this world there is no human who can make predictions with 100% accuracy. And yes, this is a fact that everyone knows. So seeing pro traders or famous traders experience defeat is also a normal thing. But as you said, those who are more experienced in trading usually have a higher profit ratio than the loss ratio they have. So even if they make mistakes, they can usually control themselves and not lose all their capital. In contrast to beginners, sometimes they can lose all their capital in trading.

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Personally I wouldn't be surprised. There's no man in the world can predict things 100% right but even if they make a wrong call that doesn't mean they are a failed trader, just like candlesticks, there's an ups and down and maybe that call is just a losing candle but if you are going to take a look in the bigger picture their profit is higher than their losses. That's why in technical trading you should do a back testing on how many wins and losses before you'll know if that strategy is profitable or not.

livingfree

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That's true that anyone can be wrong with their calls, analysis and predictions. No one's perfect on this market especially if we're all dealing with the most unpredictable asset in the world.

Take a look at those high profile people that owns institutions, they're just giving numbers that are too high that haven't been met yet. So, if it's not met and they start to sell then that only means that they're on it for the money as usual. And there's no need for them to justify their actions because it's normal for them to do such calls and trades.

But if the time comes with those high predictions of theirs and they're still holding, they're making themselves genius.

Topic: How do you feel about high-profile traders making wrong calls ? (Read 590 times)