Topic: How do you predict the market? - page 2. (Read 720 times)

Predicting or forcasting the market is not what someone will say I can do it perfectly.
The vitality index of the market is relatively high.
One just have to be smart and implement the skills acquire in trading which will serve as a guide
to him or her, thereby making the next way the market will likely fall be known by the trader.

The market is unpredictable. That is the nature of the market (volatility). But the market can be studied

There have been different predictions of Bitcoin prices with numerous guess work which is not bad at all. Everyone with their own opinion about what the price of Bitcoin would in the neatest months or years. Maybe i would have to add my own opinion about what the price of Bitcoin will tend to be in less than no time.

Bitcoin has been in a bull run for a long now and as we all know that retracement is Paramount for a trend to continue. Bitcoin is still going to fall probably below $30k and range for a while before continuing it bullish trend. Even though it's going to get to $70k before the year ends, it's still going to exhibit this move to gain momentum to push further.

when i trade i make profit on the dips
ill emphasise something.

BUY LOW sell at profit

your never going to guess 'the high' so be smart and stop waiting for the price to go up high.
just buy low and sell at profit and you will always profit

in the other topic i explained just one example using your numbers at how i profit in a bear. yep your numbers of a 1000->300 market shows i gained 3x coins instead of just buying all in at 1000

I prefer interpreting spots on the entrails of a sacrificed goat or using a crystal ball to predict markets.
Odds are they are just as reliable of an indicator as any formula that 'experts' can come up with...  

Not about ATH, am I just saying that your system works while the price goes up in the long term. That has been the case until now, but that does not mean it will be like that forever.

your endless thinking about 'btc prices grow indefinitely' makes me think your only thinking about ATH

its not about predicting ATH
has nothing to do with growing prices

its actually about when the price is low and how close it is to the underlying value. as a decider of good value to buy.(at the dip)

yes it can be used to figure out how much speculation..or as you call it 'estimation of future price'.
but like i said from the start. its not about predicting the HIGH,
knowing how much speculation is about knowing how much bubble is in the price as a way to deter you from buying in at the high. and instead waiting for the low.

its not a predictor of any specific price or date of the high. its just a indicator that if the bubble is 2x+ then the chances of a correction is higher. no value no date. just % risk

As I mentioned on another thread, IMO your system is not bulletproof, but has merit, yet would only work if BTC prices grow indefinitely in the long term.

Re minimum cost of mining, there are some rumours around some Chinese farms using some "secret hardware" and the like, but mostly the farms tend to keep to themselves their precise data. I guess you can be more or less precise anyway.

What you use in a way is not really different from any commodities cycle with the only different is that BTC commodity cycle is around a year or perhaps 6 months. There is a component of cost and a component of estimation of future price.

its not about averaging

its about knowig the cheapest efficiency on the globe. and call that the BOTTOMlINE value
the barrier line no one dare pass

then numbers above that is rough estimated scales of how many are deciding to mine or buy to get btc cheap

EG 21k is this months base (electric $0.04) (30% miners (rough guess))
say 10% have electric at 6cent. their level where they stop mining and instead buy is at 23.6k
10% have electric at 8cent. their level where they stop mining and instead buy is at $26.2k
and so on 10cent28.8k:10%.... 12cent31.4k:10%

what you find is that as the price gets closer to the base.. the hobby miners with inefficient mining costs jump off mining. and instead buy. the closer the more jump. making the base a good pressure/supportline

again no one is foolish to sell below cost. they would prefer to buy.
EG if their cost was $23k but btc was $22.5k why would they mine for weeks at a lose for a cumilative amount of satoshis to get 1btc. when they can buy a whole bitcoin in 20 seconds for $500 less

yes  another metric you can add: the most inefficient miner. the most expensive electric. so that you can scale in the buy:sell pressures% risk.. and then separetly also look at how much 'bubble' speculation is added to the price.
but the basic concept i stated in last post is atleast a first step, adding extra metrics can add more incite. but thats all about the BUY/VALUE indicator. and not about any 'ATH' prediction


anyway if you want some little indicator of 'risk' dependant on the cost efficiency(cents electric 0.xx) and what the buy support/pressure is per efficiency..
well based on current hashrate and mining equipment

remember this image is only valid for working out best time to buy by seeing how much speculation/extra bubble is in a price compared to base. (of current hashrate this week)

It is an interesting metric. However the cost of mining varies a lot depending on what you pay for electricity. How do you average that e.g. across diff nations?

no one can predict the market high point. or correction dip date. but you can access how wild a market currently is to indicate if the speculation is becoming too much for it to not last

work out the mining cost. and call that the VALUE. and then look at the bitcoin price and see how much the difference is

at the moment the ~halfmonthly intervals for the previous 3 months show
              dec1      dec15      jan1       jan15      feb1       feb15
value    $16000   $17000   $18000   $19000   $20000   $21000
price     $19700   $19200   $29000   $39000   $34000   $48000
               23%      12%        61%      105%      70%       128%

i know some people think that the 6.5coin per block is not enough to push the price. but its not about the 6.5btc going to markets.
its the paradigm of miners collecting coins when its profitable. and selling when prices >2x
and not mining when its not profitable and instead just buying coin when its only <1.4x

this value line is not the amount everyone mines at. but the lowest (efficient) mining cost.
so yea the inefficient miners with more cost are not gonna waste electric when the price and value are only 25% spread. because their personal inefficient costs might be more then 25% higher. so its cheaper to just buy the coin instead of mining it.
this helps keep the market above the value.
and as such when the value-price spread widens they stop buying and begin mining as thats cheaper

they collect up and hoard the coins.. and then when prices 2x-10x(depending on volatility speed) they then sell their bulk

you cannot predict the majority market sentiment if they want to sell their bulk at 2x or x3 or 10x

but you can tell that if the value-price spread is like 20%  the sentiment is in buy mode and the price is highly supported by value

you cant guess when the correcting dip of a spike. but if a price is going above 100%. expect that it can happen

..
in short:
calculate the bubble(the spread between value(mining cost) and price)

I think we are going to cross $100k for sure. How far up above that I'm not sure but everything points to a very bullish year.


So, how would you like us to make the prediction? Just by a hunch? By crystall-balling?


The only factor explaining the rise in price is the demand/supply ratio. But there are many factors influencing these two: for the demand, mainly institutional investors, not only Tesla and Elon but if other big companies like Apple join in, this is going to be very big. I'd say if Apple announces they are buying Bitcoin like Tesla we are going to pass the $200k mark. For supply, the massive printing by Central Banks which has accelerated due to Coronavirus crisis.

There is the Supercycle theory predicting a top of between $800k and $1M this cycle precisely because of the institutional investors (and other factors). I see it like too exaggerated but I'd be delighted to be wrong.

I'd say $80-120k per BTC 'till the end of the year. I mostly follow my instinct, the feelings I get when watching the markets. At one point, with enough experience, you pretty much get a good approximate vibe of the markets. Read as many news as possible and deposit at most $50-100 on a trading site. Try to daytrade. You'll get the hang of it after a while, I guess.

How to read signals? Critical thinking + being ahead of others with the news. Keep asking yourself as many questions as possible about how some news could affect the markets but also take it the other way around: what if the news were actually there to intentionally provoke FUD?

Ask questions to yourself and answer them by yourself... or ask the forum and you'll get an idea of what people say. the main point is, try to take news generally with a pinch of salt. Sometimes there are political (or personal) interests for those publications.

Now I learned that anything can happen and at the same time, I should learn how to read the signal but in the end, you're just guessing the knowledge you gain.

Still, I want to start a topic by asking what is your guess on the amount will be?
what's your prediction? and why?
Please, without any bases of Tesla and Elon did this and that so it will be a bull run.

Also, I know it's demand and supply is there any more reason heavy reason why you see that the bitcoin value could go up or down?

Maybe you are uncertain about your prediction? feel free here to answer and to everyone that has more knowledge don't judge them and I am just curious on what are the reason of everyone that if there is any more reason why.