Topic: How do you think of this bitcoin halving chart? (Read 323 times)

Nice chart, OP, thanks for sharing!

I disagree here. While the impact of halving on supply (and thus on the supply-demand equation) is relatively small (it would be significant only if almost all Bitcoins were hold by "holders" not offering them never on the market), it has a pretty big impact as a psychological factor.

I have got the impression from past price movements that if the price behaviour before the halving is stable or lightly bullish, then the halving date acts as a turning point. As many people believe in its "effect on supply and demand", they buy Bitcoins just before the halving. This generates the necessary buying pressure for the market to become fully bullish for the first time in the price cycle.

Now even if directly after the halving the price goes down a bit, in the past two "halving cycles" the overall bullish picture remained, so the next price rise (early 2013 and early 2017) got first smells of FOMO. After a break that was followed by the ultimate FOMO cycle (late 2013 and late 2017).
Well, we're well into the "green phase" already. It could be a repetition of 2015, when the bottom was reached in this stage. However, I think the significance of the halving is stronger in the months just before the halving. So basically I don't know if we're going up or down now, but in about a year, I'm almost sure there will be a halving hype again - at least if we see no catastrophical event or an extreme crash until then.

We may expect a high leap but I think it is difficult, seeing that the world economic development is now experiencing a decline, this is caused by large business competition in countries that have experienced market saturation points, if there is no significant change in the global economy in the near future then the jump in the value of bitcoin becomes difficult to realize. so we can only expect an increase in prices, even on a small scale.

Not really surprising.

If you think of it rationally and logically, you'll find that each halving essentially represents the scarcity of new bitcoins being mined increasing. And the market responds as a result of that. Though, we can probably attribute at least part of this phenomena to the psychological factors of BTC halving. Everyone expects there to be a bull market because of the decreased block rewards - and that becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.

What will be most interesting isn't just the current price, but rather how the bitcoin market acts after it gets close to the upper limit of circulating supply, and whether or not halvings will still be a factor then. I personally tend to think that there will certainly be a decreased influence on the market, because the amounts then produced in each block would be minuscule anyways.

This cart is to predict the price trend of bitcoin on the next halve time based on history bitcoin halve time and corresponding price trend，bitcoin halve can reflect bitcoin price，but it can’t indicate which time can pump, and which time may dump. From the previous two periods, the price trend is not completely the same before and after the time bitcoin halved. Thought, bitcoin halve indeed can bring some promotions about bitcoin, and represent the adding of mining difficulty. The increases in mining cost will also lead to an increase in bitcoin price, In a short time, the price after halved much higher the price before halving

What I can see from every halving, in CMC or http://www.thehalvening.com/#2, the price was a rise and start the rally and reach the high price in after 2 years from halving. From 2012, the highest price happens in 2014 at $1k, and then in 2016, the highest price happens in 2018 at $10k. So I guess, when the next halving occurs, the rate will not increase higher, and maybe it will reach the highest price after 2 years again like before (if the history repeat).

But we don't know what will happen with the next halving since bitcoin become popular in out there and there is regulation like SEC, BAKKT and another else. I think before halving happen, and the price will rise for a while until the next year or even making a sideways until the halving come and then the price will start to increase after halving is finish and reach the highest rate.

You can see the highest rate of price rise on marked with red! Blue is the nearest time for halving. And this blue times are not BTC's all time highs. Before halving price is getting rise, and after halving started a correction.

Some people who have a little knowledge of economics know that the price of a commodity is generally determined by its own value. Influenced by the supply-demand relationship, the real price always fluctuates around its value. But bitcoin completely overturns traditional economics. No one can tell how valuable bitcoin is. People who hold bitcoin tend to overestimate the price of Bitcoin and are anxious to rise. To $1 million, completely replace the existing French currency system; others think that bitcoin is worthless, is a fraud, such as Lang Xianping said, you give me Bitcoin I will not want.

Because bitcoin has such attributes, no matter how much bitcoin rises or falls, a reasonable explanation can be found. One reason for this downturn is that BitContinent wants to sell new miners. There are two ways to sell new miners. One is to increase the price of mining and turn it into a very profitable industry to attract new miners. This method was used at the end of last year. Another is to fall, so that bitcoin prices fall to the old miners do not make money interval, miners must find ways to upgrade. Some may ask, will the collapse of a large number of Mines cause the collapse of the bitcoin ecosystem? In fact, it will not, because a large number of mine closures will lead to a decline in computing power, mining difficulties will naturally decline, so that mining machine revenue will increase, mining revenue is a negative feedback adjustment, until the price of mining machine, computing power and BTC price reach a certain point, will naturally return to the situation of supply over demand, currency prices will rise. This year's market environment has determined that the cost of crashing is higher than that of pulling, so they chose the second method to crash the currency to a level that miners can't stand.

The reason why each halving is different is because as the years progress more people get involved with bitcoin so the pump gets bigger each time

You should look at the color. From that graph (historical data), blue always means price increase. The impact was not on the D-Day, but some period before and after the halving.

*Disclaimer: not a financial advice, only casual chat

Yes, and it does not give the assurance of a huge price rally with the halving event but this kind of event will surely make some hype again. The pumping and dumping scenarios always happen and it is proven throughout the year of Bitcoins existence, whenever it goes upwards it will surely go back downwards and this is the reality of this kind of industry.

its possible the price will increase before or after halving because of block rewards will be lower
if the block rewards cant keep up in the demand thats the time price will rise

There is Gann indicator for measuring possible upward space if you know where bottom is located in chart. Btc will increase and test the latest accumulation points for hunting stops,so till halving i have no hope for bull trend. Halving will clear the dust from price graphics.

Needless to say, after halving we see that the market will stabilize and gonna reach to a higher state. Mining difficulty increases and block rewards are being reduced. This results to higher demand and lessening the supply. We know what will be the impact of it, last 2016's halving took effect few months and we might see that effect again next year. If our understanding is correct, by next year after the halving we are going to see the market rise again for sure.

In my opinion, we will see a positive effect also in the next halving of 2020, but I don't think the effect will be immediate, but probably the market will take some months to show a positive move on prices.

What retreat? It's clear that in 2012 and 2016 price exploded after the halving.
It's difficult to predict what will happen because there's very little data to depend on. Each halving was a little different and in 2012 very little people had Bitcoin so it was a micro economy.

Maybe after another 2 or 3 halvings we'll see a clear pattern.

According to this graph, BTC is experiencing a retreat after rising up to Halving. Considering that the same thing will happen, the uptrend that started today can continue until May next year.

the significance is a resistance that forms by limiting the supply
if you were to cut gold's inflation ("mining rewards") by half, let's just say the price would be affected, not immediately of course, you are correct in that aspect


precisely
the halving is not felt overnight
it creates pressure
you can actually see the curve forming itself on the logarithmic scale

as volume and market cap increase, the curve becomes more precise

In crypto world everything is possible even the impossible. But, in the more useful case of indicators, we should think more positively. We are close to the resistance in terms of TA, and at least there is something we can estimate  "it is gonna happen if this happens". I do not guess innovations will result in a price decrease.

Nice and innovative chart design, but from past experiences bitcoin halving have rather have a negative impact on the price rather then a positive impact as you portray. I like the idea thou but most at times after bitcoin halving the price always decline greatly and it always take time before recovery.

Agreed, it is too early to make discussion about the upcoming halving. Almost a year is there for the event to happen. As quoted two month prior to the halving big HYIPs were done on the price pumping. To my knowledge the price started to move forward only few weeks after halving. On every halving the increasing demand creates an price boom which is termed to be a bubble. Further it consolidates to provide gradual growth. Similar pattern has got described on the chart as well.