Topic: How do you think the auction will affect the price, why? - page 2. (Read 4433 times)

Do you have reason to believe that Satoshi was/is at a significantly increased risk of death compared to the average person? If not, I don't view it as reasonable possibility - it's incredibly unlikely for the average person to die in a several year timespan.

When Bitcoins are at the moon, you won't call him a retard anymore.
I mean seriously, maybe he just had the confidence, that they will be worth more in the future and didn't care, if he payed too much in today's terms.

This isn't a ebay auction bro it's a sealed envelope auction. You put your bid in and they see who really wanted it bad enough. Last idiot who overpaid JUST to make sure they win ALL the coins was Tim Draper and that retard is down millions!

I'm not buying it, sorry.  I see no reason why the coins will sell at a level that would make arbitrage profitable.  Any bidder who allows another bidder to outbid them at a price where arbitrage is profitable is a fool.

Good time to sell & buy back at least 100$ cheaper... Ride the wave down... However low it goes!

If it goes below 350, it will not stop there and I can see it going below 300. Good time to buy for all those who believe in this.

Probably a small uptick in the price.  There are still plenty of whales who want in without slippage.

Look at the ~25k BTC bought by a big whale last month in the BIT.  Dollar cost averaged in for 2.5 million every week.

the land of the brave and the home of the free.
they can do whatever the heck they like, as is their wont.

Feds cannot control how much bidders offer. They will have sell to the highest bidder. How can they sell them as cheaply as they can?

Why not sell them all in one auction then? I'm wondering if the feds are not auctioning all the coins because they think they might get more for them in the future.

no chance, feds will sell em off as cheaply as they can

I think the auction will be won at above market price. Simply because it is difficult to reliably buy large amounts of bitcoin for large investors. This auction is a great opportunity for them. This doesn't mean potential investors will not dump the bitcoin they now have to lower the market price.

The bear whale briefly pushed the price down, but we had a nice rally straight afterwards and the price has not been pushed down that low since. It's a positive sign if someone can dump that many coins and we get a rally straight afterwards.

Like you said, Satoshi is mortal.

As such, there is a reasonable chance that he is already dead and failed to notify is friends or family about his creation and his private keys.  Therefore, it is quite possible that those bitcoins will never be moved at all.

People were new to the concept back then, though. When the news first broke nobody thought the market could handle 30,000-200,000 bitcoins. The relief when they were sold for somewhere around market price to a hodler caused a foolishly bullish pump, which clearly didn't last long.

These auctions are routine now. Nobody thinks it's the end of the world each time a new auction is announced. Therefore, there will be no relief and a pump when sell near market - the only thing that can happen is they sell lower than people expected, which could potentially cause a price decrease.

This is of course ignoring any possible pre-auction manipulation.

There are so many questions marks. We have 170,000 BTC to go from the US Marshalls - it actually doesn't seem like the market is handling these auctions very well, considering we're at 2/3 of the price when the first auction was announced. Unless the overall trajectory of the market goes from bearish to bullish (face the facts, we've been in a pure bear market since the double top last winter, despite a few bumps here and there), these auctions are just going to continue to significantly push the price down.

Satoshi is mortal. Say what you will, but almost nobody is throwing away that much money. Do people here really expect his coins to never be sold or used for their intended purpose [currency]? Is that realistic or just wishful thinking? Sure, maybe not this year, or next year, but someday it will happen. Until it does, his coins will remain a question mark scarring the decentralization of Bitcoin.

I honestly would feel more bullish about Bitcoin long-term if he dumped just dumped all his coins on the market in one fell swoop. Sure, the price would suffer short-term, but it could recover long-term.

Not bought by a bear who just wants to sell them. 

It depends, last time we didn't know at what price bitcoins were sold, we just knew that some of the bidders made very low offers in respect to the daily price. Even if this time the price will be disclosed I don't think it will affect the price that much if not for a brief period: important thing is that those bitcoins are bought and put to good use.

From what I remember it wasn't much movement ($50 or so) view the graph above. Everyone still got excited though.

I dont remember much movement over past auctions.

Why? People will use the situation to their advantage and make an artificial dump then pump. (this occurs with most big news stories relating to btc, a big market movement is created ''artificially'' by a few people (not the actual market))