How far below $10k in 2021? | Bitcointalksearch.org

philipma1957

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Quote from: proudhon on March 24, 2021, 04:25:25 PM

If you're familiar with good math and science and have done the work to confirm using good sources, then you know bitcoin will be below $10k sometime in 2021 <---fact. How soon do you think it will be below $10k and by how much? Interested in your scientific opinions.

What is more likely in 2021 10k or you dying?

Me I am 64 in okay health my odds of dying this year are about 112 out of 10000. that is an 89 to 1 shot

I would think the odds of btc dropping under 10 k this year are higher than that.

decodx

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Quote from: Questat on March 26, 2021, 10:20:55 AM

Even the price will dump someday, I was not thinking that it goes back to the dip low again. As we look at the chart, we can see that there is no such huge change happen. From $50k it dumps to $30k plus, and it has given no chance to drop below $20k, instead, it rises back strong and making all the way to the new ATH.

I realize I haven't been here that long, but this post of yours seems to be a bunch of bullshit. Well, that's the way it looks to me.
Where did you see the dump from $ 50k to $ 30k (not to mention $ 20k)? Are you sure you're talking about the Bitcoin price here?

Questat

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Quote from: mrquackquack on March 26, 2021, 09:53:36 AM

Given the facts of the current state of affairs, problematic global economies and the current looming pandemic. Seeing bitcoin drop to under 10k usd in 2021 would be somewhat surprising.

Yet surprising and it looks impossible.
No wonder why some people would like to ask when it dumps? It is very unfortunate that the market seems to be in favor of the holders, not the dumpers.

Even the price will dump someday, I was not thinking that it goes back to the dip low again. As we look at the chart, we can see that there is no such huge change happen. From $50k it dumps to $30k plus, and it has given no chance to drop below $20k, instead, it rises back strong and making all the way to the new ATH.

mrquackquack

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Given the facts of the current state of affairs, problematic global economies and the current looming pandemic. Seeing bitcoin drop to under 10k usd in 2021 would be somewhat surprising.

worle1bm

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Quote from: proudhon on March 24, 2021, 04:25:25 PM

If you're familiar with good math and science and have done the work to confirm using good sources, then you know bitcoin will be below $10k sometime in 2021 <---fact. How soon do you think it will be below $10k and by how much? Interested in your scientific opinions.

The current scenario of Bitcoin adoption and prices increase this level below $10k is not possible this year and you need to correct your assumptions which are providing false results.For $10k billions of dollars need to be cash out from the Bitcoin Market cap which is somehow impossible but rather be optimistic about its growth and beleive that it will reach above $60k soon.But if you really beleive on yourself cash out at the current prices of $50k and then invest at $10k and you can buy btc 5* current Bitcoin holdings and then have huge profits so just go for it.

slapper

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I'm good at math but it is hard for me to find a piece of evidence supporting your idea. Can you show me some proofs or some of your scientific works? No offense at all. I want to observe new perspective regard to the downtrend of bitcoin because I am also looking forward to seeing bitcoin sweep away people's most desire dream: BEING EXTREMELY RICH WITHOUT DOING A SHIT.

Well, according to my analysis, a new drop is likely to occur in the next few more days. But it's just a correction, maybe the big one. But after the correction, bitcoin will move toward its new peak

Actually, long-term investors who tend to hold bitcoin for the next 5-500 years do not need to worry much about how the price is running.

pixie85

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Quote from: justdimin on March 25, 2021, 11:06:12 AM

This is absolutely correct. When you go above a price, you never go down that price, and it will stay like that for a veeeery long time.

Not above any price, only above the all time high. Reach ATH for the second time makes it into a permanent support.

I'm not saying it's impossible but going below an ATH that was reached twice but that would be the first after least 3 big cycles in the last 10 years that did not go there. If people abandon bitcoin and move to something else this will have to happen, but I don't see signs of anything like that.

We are still early in Bitcoin's life and it's not going to become obsolete this or next year. In the meantime, get ready for another cycle and another after that.

adaseb

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Quote from: hulla on March 25, 2021, 01:30:46 AM

Quote from: adaseb on March 25, 2021, 12:25:00 AM

Well if you really believe that below $10K will happen then do this.

Make an account on Deritbit, go to the Dec 31 2021 options, and buy as many of the $12000 Puts as you can. Currently its bid/ask is $180/$360. If you use a limit order you might get a fill for $250 or so. This is based on BTC price of ~0.005 BTC.

Now say you are correct and BTC hits $9000 temporarily. Your put option would be worth $3000 at least at one point. Most likely depending when this happens the premium might make it worth ~$5000.

So with a $250 investment you would 20x your money. However if BTC doesn't go below $12K before the end of the year you will make nothing.

I never like futures trading because it so risk and the reward involve are mouth-watering but I will follow your advice with $100 though
Having said that, footing the previous historical data of the Bitcoin market after the bullish momentum is over, I also believe the price of the Bitcoin market will dump below $10K but there's that it won't happen during the December of this year.

Options trading is nothing like Futures trading. Futures trading is more or less trading on margin with higher leverage. If you short BTC your losses are unlimited because BTC can go to infinity and you can't control how much you lose unless you use stops.

Options trading when you buy the calls or puts, your exposure is limited to the price that you paid for that option. So BTC can go to $100,000 a coin and your max loss will be what you paid for that option which is $250 or so. Only way how you put in extreme risk in option trading is if you sell call options because then you will have to cover the difference if the price sky rockets. Similar to what happened with the $36K options back in Dec expiry.

justdimin

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Quote from: pixie85 on March 25, 2021, 07:50:31 AM

If you had understanding of bitcoin cycles OP you'd know that if an all time high gets passed for the second time, the price never goes back below it.

You had the last chance to buy below 20 thousand a few months ago and you'll never be able to again, deal with it. I can understand some of you feel bad about missing the chance to buy cheap coins, but if you're smart you should still be able to get sub 40 thousand dollars at some point. Maybe this or maybe next year but it's possible that we'll correct 50% of the all time high, so instead of being grumpy put some orders on exchanges and maybe you'll get lucky.

This is absolutely correct. When you go above a price, you never go down that price, and it will stay like that for a veeeery long time. Too many people would lose money and we are talking about hundreds of billions of dollars lost, that is why people will do everything in their power to keep it above that, I mean like huge companies getting tens of billions of dollars worth of line of credit to use on bitcoin to keep it high.

So, I think 20k+ is guaranteed for me, I do not know how high, will it not go under 30k? I do not know, will it be 21k and stay there? I do not know, but only thing I know that I am sure it will not go under 20k for sure. I can't guarantee this because some of you may decide to invest with that idea, and if I am wrong that means you will lose a lot of money because you trusted what I wrote, so do not go ahead and do that, this is just my prediction only.

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Oh it's the camel guy again with a "fact" that BTC will go below $10k.

I'd be much more interested in what you would do if your facts do not come out again? A prize of 0.01 BTC should be no problem as it's only going to be less than $100 if your fact comes out right:) What do you say to that OP?

pixie85

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If you had understanding of bitcoin cycles OP you'd know that if an all time high gets passed for the second time, the price never goes back below it.

You had the last chance to buy below 20 thousand a few months ago and you'll never be able to again, deal with it. I can understand some of you feel bad about missing the chance to buy cheap coins, but if you're smart you should still be able to get sub 40 thousand dollars at some point. Maybe this or maybe next year but it's possible that we'll correct 50% of the all time high, so instead of being grumpy put some orders on exchanges and maybe you'll get lucky.

traderethereum

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How far? I think that it will be more than $40k to go to that $10k level price.
Maybe that will be a flash dump that can make the price goes down deeper and touch that price because if the price is a force to get down, that can make a panic from all people who invest in bitcoin, and that can make the company panic too.
They will not let the price will touch below $40k but we do not know for sure, and I hope that the price will not go down below $40k.
If that happens, I am sure that will be great news for the big company and they will buy bitcoin in a big amount and hold it. People will do the same thing as the company because that is the chance to buy bitcoin at a low price.

sunsilk

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I would be interested if you can see some scientifica and mathematical facts about bitcoin isn't sustainable above $10k. As for me, I don't have any methods or basis for bitcoin to be sustainable above that price because it just did sustained it for a few months.

Yet, it's still maintaining itself to be above $40k. Once it has able to move above the last peak that we've made at $60k, then that only shows that analysis or any method that you use to measure its price sustainability can always be broken by bitcoin itself.

aoluain

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Quote from: wheelz1200 on March 24, 2021, 05:53:47 PM

Quote from: proudhon on March 24, 2021, 04:25:25 PM

If you're familiar with good math and science and have done the work to confirm using good sources, then you know bitcoin will be below $10k sometime in 2021 <---fact. How soon do you think it will be below $10k and by how much? Interested in your scientific opinions.

I would be interested in your good math and science that you came to the conclusion bitcoin will fall below $10k. Not saying you are wrong but just making a statement like this doesn't give it any credibility. Is this a troll post??

So seeing as though the OP is "familiar with good math" I too would like to be
enlightened as to how the figure is $10,000, is there a zero missing making it $100,000?

Quote from: Fundamentals Of on March 24, 2021, 09:46:37 PM

How do you even define fact? It is weird and extremely ironic that you talk of good science and math and yet your fact is not even verifiable. Nobody can confirm that $10,000 within 2021 has happened or will happen with 100% certainty.

Quote from: GreatArkansas on March 24, 2021, 07:58:40 PM

Bitcoin is still possible under $10,000.
If we check the chart and check the all-time-high last December 2017, and the all-time-low after the all-time-high of December 2017 was around $3,000.
It was around -80% of the price decrease.
I checked now if we will able to dump up to $10,000, the percentage of decrease is also around -80%, same with what happened last 2017-2018.

It is always possible but if you bring forward an analysis which is based on what happened in 2017, that wouldn't apply. The circumstances around Bitcoin in 2021 are a world different from those of 2017.

And to backup Fundamentals Of there is this recent thread talking about the
comparison between 2017 and 2021, its a different ball game this time around.

Stop comparing BITCOIN on 2017 & 2021. It will never be same again

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Quote from: wheelz1200 on March 24, 2021, 05:53:47 PM

I would be interested in your good math and science that you came to the conclusion bitcoin will fall below $10k. Not saying you are wrong but just making a statement like this doesn't give it any credibility. Is this a troll post??

I am interested because if there really is a math and science behind that prediction then there should be some evidences provided that bitcoin is going to go under. I don't like that people are spreading FUD but I think that if it ever comes to that the prices really did go down, I think that it will be a good for me because I can buy more bitcoins than the current prices.

hulla

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Quote from: adaseb on March 25, 2021, 12:25:00 AM

Well if you really believe that below $10K will happen then do this.

Make an account on Deritbit, go to the Dec 31 2021 options, and buy as many of the $12000 Puts as you can. Currently its bid/ask is $180/$360. If you use a limit order you might get a fill for $250 or so. This is based on BTC price of ~0.005 BTC.

Now say you are correct and BTC hits $9000 temporarily. Your put option would be worth $3000 at least at one point. Most likely depending when this happens the premium might make it worth ~$5000.

So with a $250 investment you would 20x your money. However if BTC doesn't go below $12K before the end of the year you will make nothing.

I never like futures trading because it so risk and the reward involve are mouth-watering but I will follow your advice with $100 though
Having said that, footing the previous historical data of the Bitcoin market after the bullish momentum is over, I also believe the price of the Bitcoin market will dump below $10K but there's that it won't happen during the December of this year.

adaseb

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Well if you really believe that below $10K will happen then do this.

Make an account on Deritbit, go to the Dec 31 2021 options, and buy as many of the $12000 Puts as you can. Currently its bid/ask is $180/$360. If you use a limit order you might get a fill for $250 or so. This is based on BTC price of ~0.005 BTC.

Now say you are correct and BTC hits $9000 temporarily. Your put option would be worth $3000 at least at one point. Most likely depending when this happens the premium might make it worth ~$5000.

So with a $250 investment you would 20x your money. However if BTC doesn't go below $12K before the end of the year you will make nothing.

OROBTC

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Quote from: proudhon on March 24, 2021, 05:18:43 PM

Quote from: stompix on March 24, 2021, 05:04:12 PM

Quote from: proudhon on November 16, 2020, 11:27:51 AM

By the end of 2021 I don't think many people will care that much about bitcoin. What's even worse is that you've got people who sincerely believe bitcoin could see prices of $50k and even $100k, which we know for a certainty will never happen. Luckily there's still time for sensible people to exit this market and save themselves.

How about you seek some help for your problems also? It's still time for this also!

These prices are just temporary randomness in the course of the ultimate down trend though. $50k clearly isn't sustainable.

As of this moment, not even $52,000 is tenable this week or even tonight ($51,908 as I write).

* * *

I have had a chance to start looking into the more relevant maths and science as we edge closer to confirmed and final conclusive proof:

-- Tensor Analysis (think 3-D and higher matrix operations)

-- Careful examination of Stochastic Random Variables and their relationships with Time Series Analysis <--- important!

-- Algebraic Topology, also folds in with Time Series

-- Euler's Formula (e^{i\pi }+1=0) and related concepts of Analysis of Complex Numbers

-- some fields of Statistics, including ANOVA and Discriminant Analysis

-- Harmonic Functions

-- Abstract Algebra of Groups and Rings

Note that I cover just some of the basics of maths only. The science is easier.

Fundamentals Of

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How do you even define fact? It is weird and extremely ironic that you talk of good science and math and yet your fact is not even verifiable. Nobody can confirm that $10,000 within 2021 has happened or will happen with 100% certainty.

Quote from: GreatArkansas on March 24, 2021, 07:58:40 PM

Bitcoin is still possible under $10,000.
If we check the chart and check the all-time-high last December 2017, and the all-time-low after the all-time-high of December 2017 was around $3,000.
It was around -80% of the price decrease.
I checked now if we will able to dump up to $10,000, the percentage of decrease is also around -80%, same with what happened last 2017-2018.

It is always possible but if you bring forward an analysis which is based on what happened in 2017, that wouldn't apply. The circumstances around Bitcoin in 2021 are a world different from those of 2017.

GreatArkansas

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Bitcoin is still possible under $10,000.
If we check the chart and check the all-time-high last December 2017, and the all-time-low after the all-time-high of December 2017 was around $3,000.
It was around -80% of the price decrease.
I checked now if we will able to dump up to $10,000, the percentage of decrease is also around -80%, same with what happened last 2017-2018.

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