Topic: How high do you think Bitcoin will go on the next bull run? - page 2. (Read 657 times)

The last big bull markets have all established all time highs, so I definitely would not be surprised if the next bull market would be able to have similar returns figures as well. After all, the bitcoin market is quite cyclical in nature.

As you mentioned, there is also the possibility now that institutional investors would be able to influence growth even further and make this coming bull market a lot more crazy.

But personally, I wouldn't expect prices to rise to 6 figures that easily. It's much easier to go from 4 figures to 5, but way harder to get from 5 figures to 6, from a psychological standpoint and because of the limited amount of investments that can come in. But given that the next bull market could potentially coincide with the halving in 2020, it could be possible. I'd like to be more conservative in my speculative predictions, I guess.

At the moment, I just want the price to go back to the previous ATH. So yes, Im very conservative about bullish predictions. 2019 will be a year of recovery, like 2015 was, and 2020 will be equivalent to 2016, when the price was usually going up.

If we are back to the previous ATH, only then we can speak about a bull-run. In my view, a recovery cant be considered a bull-run, its just a reset back to the real price. Until we are not back to the ATH, bitcoin is being sold with a "discount".

Everything is possible when we talk about Bitcoin but we are running out of time. The end of the year is getting closer and closer and honestly I don't believe that some significant changes in price will happen. No matter all possible scenarios I don't think Bitcoin price will exceed  10000$ literaly over night. If the price reaches 8000$ or 9000$ by the end of the year that will be surprise for me.

People assume spot coins will be bought and that the effect of that will reflect on the price.

They have no clue about how booming the OTC market is currently, especially with miners being the main providers of fresh/clean coins legal entities are craving for.

I do however have to point out that with less miners dumping on the spot market, it could and likely will make sure that if the spot demand does increase, there is less potential selling pressure on the market, which is always a positive factor. Miners are the main source of supply inflation, and if legal entities buy up most of these coins, there eventually will be a shortage on the spot market with the right amount of demand.

But it is better for price in general that shares are backed by real BTC, they need to buy coins from market and that means that every share is backed by real coins. Public opinion prevails that such a way of investing in BTC would allow big money to start flow in crypto market, just because it is a easy way for investors to buy BTC through shares.

I say before that this looks very nice in theory, but the question is whether there is an interest of big investors for BTC ETF. Personally I think SEC decision to approve ETF would have a positive effect on price, we all see how market is react on last year BTC futures - although some claim it has nothing to do with that bull run.

No such thing for me as well. One thing I believe is that however it comes, trend will give us the whole thing glaringly. At the end, it is always going to be a surprise most of the time.

I remember last year when a lot of us expected $10k to be the height of it all for the year and then bam! We started hitting the next ATH after the other until we eventually hit $19800 or thereabout and now testing the waters at around $6,000. This is an unpredictable market that is full of surprises, and rather than expecting something, I rather just stick with what trend tells me instead and how far bitcoin goes with a bull run is best known with time.

It may even be more than if we are to judge from how things have been in the past when it comes to bitcoin bull run and the breaking of new ATHs. $100k is a very reasonable amount when we keep looking at the way things could be in the bull run case, and probably this is something we will probably get to see in the next bull run.

Moreover, what drives the bull run will determine how sustainable it will get in a short period of time considering the level of speculation that abounds in this space. I know corrections are normal, but looking at the level of panic selling and level of volatility that comes afterwards, it can be crazy.

The current price is a great entry point for institutional investors who are preparing to break into the crypto markets. I think it will hit around 30k before dumping down again, then hitting new highs over 50k after that

Maybe $20,000 again as the investors sentiment is very low.  I think we have to see the major bull run in 2020. By 2020, we should expect bitcoin to be trading above $100,000 as by then banks and governments may have come into the market and put in big fund.

Small amount of money in December ? i do not think so mate, as far as i remembered our total Market Cap in December~January was around $700~$800 Billions and currently we are sitting at $200 Billions, the difference is 'big' and it is not a small amount of money i believe.
most of them came from small investor(got rekted the most too) while an institutional investor reaped a lot of benefit from that run, as you said. everyone else has a better understanding about Bitcoin's price after they witnessed that euphoria. Bitcoin will absolutely get pumped in the future, but it does not mean we can go directly to $100.000 in a single move just like what you are hoping for.

if we got $800 Billions in our total market cap when we were sitting at $20.000 a few months ago, how far it will be when we are sitting at $100.000 ? approximately it won't less than $5 Trillions or even higher than that. and it is not a small feat to do that, we might see it $100.000 but it needs a time and we can not expect it in 2020.
and the most important thing that we need to consider is, people capability to buy it.

I am sure that the price of Bitcoin can still experience a tremendous increase in the coming months. With the increasing number of people using Bitcoin, it is very good for the direction of positive change. Bitcoin prices are currently in the range of 6,000USD and it is very possible if at the beginning of next year Bitcoin prices could reach 10,000USD. I am optimistic that it will happen because Bitcoin is a thing that often surprises us all.

it doesn't particularly matter if the trust is physically backed with BTC. it could be backed by futures contracts that settle at USD equivalent---the price should still generally reflect the spot market due to arbitrage. this is why cash-settled futures don't deviate that much from spot.

i don't understand why ETF approval would trigger a new bull run. people keep saying that, but nobody can explain why. this is like the ghost cities in china---you can build all the houses you want, but it doesn't mean anyone wants to buy them.

this is called "putting the cart before the horse".

ETF denails really don't matter. The 2017 bull craze started just after the first round of ETF denials. ETF acceptance is a bull run starter, but ETF denial is just normal market conditions at this point, it won't stop a bull market from occurring.

As you say there are major reasons for each bull run. In 2019 we'll have Wall St entering the game (even without an ETF) - BAKKT, Fidelity, Goldman Sachs, etc,  surely others already building services we don't know about. The 110 billion market cap is pocket change for them.

100% yes.

People are mindless and stupid in general and memories are short. As soon as dollar signs cloud their eyes they'll do literally anything and will not respond to facts. $3 XRP demonstrates that let alone shit like Bitconnect. That's how bubbles happen and bubbles have happened since we've had greed which is rather a long time.

As for the question. Dunno. A bull run is different from a bubble. We could do with some moderate bullishness rather than another flat out frenzy for the credibility of the whole scene. Doubt that'll happen though.

We can't predict the next bull run by watching the previous one because every time there are different catalysts. What that means is that the price is being driven by different things. In 2012 it was the rise of dark web marketplaces. In 2013 we had Mt.Gox and Chinese exchanges manipulating volume. In 2017 we had Korean and Japanese markets open, with the addition of futures. Every time there's something different and if what happens is big enough there can be no boundaries for BTC. On the other hand if we get a Tether fiasco and constant ETF denials, you can forget about another bull run for a while.

Wall St doesn't hate Bitcoin. They love anything they can make money from. BANKS hate Bitcoin because they are afraid of it, though even some of them have privately been mining or buying up some bitcoin. Sure most of Wall St could care less about if it becomes a global currency, but they will be all to happy to get much richer from the ride up.

The old whales....are nothing compared to Wall St whales. Seriously. The old whales aren't the ones who make the price go up, its the millions of people who buy bitcoin, its the masses. And in the future it will be the masses plus the new far bigger whales from Wall St. Maybe an old big whale would throw 100 million at Bitcoin and then they'd be spent. A Wall St institutional whale will throw a billion at bitcoin without batting an eye.

I think we have different definitions of the bull run. You're saying Bitcoin will go back to ATH by end of 2019, but bull run won't start until 2020 after that. That is a bull run. I agree I think late 2019 the ATH will be passed, everything from $6xxxx up to $20k is part of the bull run. So I think you agree it will be starting in 2019 you just defining the bull run as only starting when it passes the ATH.

I don't think the bull run will last 3 years, that seems too long. I think it'll be 2019 and 2020 and late 2020 the price will soar past $100k before plummeting back under $50k in 2021.

It will go to $100k.

However, I dont think it will start this year, and maybe not even the next. My guess is that we will reach the "bottom of despair" in December or January, and that will be the $4888 predicted some months ago (which would be a equivalent of the $188 from the 2013-2015 bear market). After that it will take the entire year of 2019 to reach the previous ATH, but it will not stop there, it will go straight to 100k by the end of 2021, when there will be a crash similar to 2017, following the four-year pattern.

You can notice that this forum is full of threads of hope, all aimed at the so-called "legitimacy" of bitcoin. The impression I have is that there is a general belief that Wall Street will make the price go up. This is a powder keg, and can bring the price to $4888. If you are not long, you are fucked.

The only guys who can make the price go up are the old whales. I dont expect anything good coming from Wall Street. These guys always hated bitcoin and I dont believe they want it to succeed as a new currency.

I think the people who just bought Bitcoin in December won't be likely to buy in anytime soon, but how about everyone else who has Bitcoin and better understands Bitcoin's price cycles, and how about the far far larger amount of money from people and Wall St that will be itching to get into Bitcoin before the next bull run starts or after they see that it has started. The people who got recked by Bitcoin by buying in December only represent a tiny amount of the money that will flow into Bitcoin in the next couple years.

Governments are allowing it. Bitcoin is about to hit Wall St before the end of this year with BAKKT. Governments will absolutely not do anything to harm a new asset class that promises to gain more wealth for the wealthy.

I feel like you haven't been paying attention. $100k I think is a conservative bet for the next peak. I think Wall St alone could raise the price by $100k the next two years. $100k is my target for the next peak, but I think it could very well briefly get in the $150k - $200k range before crashing the way last year $10k was the big target and then it briefly shot up to $20k in the ensuing euphoria. Expect something like that to happen again when it hits $100k in 2020.

$100k ? i do not believe it.
just look at our current market right now, do you think people will do the same thing again after they got rekt a few months ago ? absolutely not, they might do the same thing again but they need a time to regain back their faith and greed. and if the trend changes, at best we will see it around $15.000 max and then consolidated.

also, the goverments won't allow it.
their citizen and investor will be in danger when the market hits that number, a lot of investor/people will lose their money.

I agree that I'd expect the next crash to be less severe than this one. This one was already less severe than the previous ones (at least for Bitcoin, altcoins are a different story but they don't have much real worth yet anyways). This crash was only about 71%. The two previous prolonged crashes that took more than a year to return to ATH (2011 and late 2013) were like 90%+ and 80%+ ($32 to $2, ~$1150 to <$200). I think the next crash will only be 60-something percent. Though I guess it depends what Wall St does. Do institutional and retail investors on Wall St take their money out  or do they hold long term like people generally do with their stock market investments?