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Topic: How long this correction will take? - page 3. (Read 5560 times)

legendary
Activity: 1050
Merit: 1000
January 17, 2012, 01:27:18 PM
#23
currently it helps to keep the rate at sane levels

if you all leverage in one direction and there 75% of you of all mtgox volume of course things will slowdown
i don't know much about trading so i'm not playing that game and by looking how you guys play that game someone moving in opissite direction can take all your leverages or profits to themselves
how is it bitcoinica's fault that most traders bet in one direction?  you play high risk game you should assume high risk.

Ok, your not far off from my train of thought..

But consider this..

It delays the inevitable, and causes wild swings when the dam finally breaks, thus liquidating positions for these momentary wild swings..

It dosent so much stem the tide, but band-aids it up with a very very thin wall temporarily Then! you have no btc or USD availbility in the appropriate direction.

Now if he had the over head, the market will move where it wants to go. Good or bad..

Its like market procrastination so to speak.

And on top of that the mtgox traders moving to bitcoinica makes this worse..

The best thing Zhou can do is be his own exchange with leveraging, to compete with Mtgox, once they have it too, THIS will be helpful in the ways you are talking..  2 exchanges with margins.

i may not know much about trading, i may not be well versed with trading lingvo
but looking at the following graph i'm seeing a very healthy growth.  with bitcoinica or without there is no more btc and usd than there currently exist and inevitable can't be stopped either way Smiley so i see the delays as a good amortization mechanism so we won't spiral out of control

hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 500
You're fat, because you dont have any pics on FB
January 17, 2012, 01:26:59 PM
#22
The problem isn't the idea of leverage. The problem is that it is used excessively in the most unfitting situations. This will go wrong eventually, and that will help repair the problem by punishing overconfident trading, weakening those who do it and strengthening conservative speculators.

Yes, that coupled with it all being on mtgox, this is the problem.  It dosent buffer the market at all in my eyes, until there is compitition with mtgox on a scale(volume) that is near mtgox..

legendary
Activity: 1036
Merit: 1002
January 17, 2012, 01:21:32 PM
#21
The problem isn't the idea of leverage. The problem is that it is used excessively in the most unfitting situations. This will go wrong eventually, and that will help repair the problem by punishing overconfident trading, weakening those who do it and strengthening conservative speculators.
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 500
You're fat, because you dont have any pics on FB
January 17, 2012, 01:15:46 PM
#20
currently it helps to keep the rate at sane levels

if you all leverage in one direction and there 75% of you of all mtgox volume of course things will slowdown
i don't know much about trading so i'm not playing that game and by looking how you guys play that game someone moving in opissite direction can take all your leverages or profits to themselves
how is it bitcoinica's fault that most traders bet in one direction?  you play high risk game you should assume high risk.

Ok, your not far off from my train of thought..

But consider this..

It delays the inevitable, and causes wild swings when the dam finally breaks, thus liquidating positions for these momentary wild swings..

It dosent so much stem the tide, but band-aids it up with a very very thin wall temporarily Then! you have no btc or USD availbility in the appropriate direction.

Now if he had the over head, the market will move where it wants to go. Good or bad..

Its like market procrastination so to speak.

And on top of that the mtgox traders moving to bitcoinica makes this worse..

The best thing Zhou can do is be his own exchange with leveraging, to compete with Mtgox, once they have it too, THIS will be helpful in the ways you are talking..  2 exchanges with margins.
zby
legendary
Activity: 1592
Merit: 1001
January 17, 2012, 01:10:19 PM
#19
Sorry Vandroiy, I misunderstood. I thought you were telling me I couldn't play the spikes because of the maxed out leverage

My point was that people shouldn't jump into the market right now because it is probably going to crash. It sounds like you're saying the same thing.

Lol,

Yes, because the market ALWAYS crashes when bitcoin is exposed to millions of people..  Roll Eyes

It crashed hard in june 2011, really hard..

Well, yes, yes it did.

Proudhon and his NEW maths...

I'm serious.  Didn't the market crash in June?  Am I missing something?

I know its hard, but try the real world math..  Take the first day of june btc to usd price...  then look at the last day of june btc price..
Where is the crash ? are you refering to the correction from the peek ? 

Proudhon is back! and SHORT!

Correction of 1/3 of the value - in current scale that would be correction to 5.
legendary
Activity: 1050
Merit: 1000
January 17, 2012, 01:08:48 PM
#18
currently it helps to keep the rate at sane levels and more importantly STABLE rates

if you all leverage in one direction and there are 75% of you of all mtgox volume of course things will slowdown
i don't know much about trading so i'm not playing that game and by looking how you guys play that game someone moving in opissite direction can take all your leverages or profits to themselves
how is it bitcoinica's fault that most traders bet in one direction?  you play high risk game you should assume high risk of losing just the same as you multiply your gains
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 500
You're fat, because you dont have any pics on FB
January 17, 2012, 01:01:57 PM
#17


I will agree that Bitcoinica is hurting the community as a whole yes..

But if you cant gather how Bitcoin entering the psyche of the people with help, I have little to say to you.

i disagree strongly, i came to conclusion that bitcoinica provides fair balance and stability which is more important to healthy growth then wild roller-coasters, it also offers opportunity for new comers to enter at decent rates.   and it's not bitcoinica as much as the players on that boat.  thing is there is no yet much of new funds
slower you go - further you get

When bitcoinica is about 75 percent of mtgox volume and its mostly on margin, for such a small market, and routinely runs out of head room in whatever direction the market is going, explain to us all in detail how you think it helps..

Dont get me wrong, I love the "idea" of Bitcoinica, and I have immense respect for Zhou, hes a hard worker, and a professional.

Personally I would not have an issue with bitcoinica if it was its OWN exchange.. not parle to mtgox.

legendary
Activity: 1050
Merit: 1000
January 17, 2012, 12:55:17 PM
#16


I will agree that Bitcoinica is hurting the community as a whole yes..

But if you cant gather how Bitcoin entering the psyche of the people with help, I have little to say to you.

i disagree strongly, i came to conclusion that bitcoinica provides fair balance and stability which is more important to healthy growth then wild roller-coasters, it also offers opportunity for new comers to enter at decent rates.   and it's not bitcoinica as much as the players on that boat.  thing is there is no yet much of new funds
the slower you go - further you get
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 500
You're fat, because you dont have any pics on FB
January 17, 2012, 12:54:59 PM
#15
Sorry Vandroiy, I misunderstood. I thought you were telling me I couldn't play the spikes because of the maxed out leverage

My point was that people shouldn't jump into the market right now because it is probably going to crash. It sounds like you're saying the same thing.

Lol,

Yes, because the market ALWAYS crashes when bitcoin is exposed to millions of people..  Roll Eyes

It crashed hard in june 2011, really hard..

I'm a little confused as to why you think this fictional tv show is going to spark interest in bitcoin. The reasons why it won't have already been explained pretty clearly all over this board, but die hard fanboys just keep refusing to see the logic. I watched the show. It never says Bitcoin is real; it portrays it as cool, but a niche interest that is vaguely defined as "the future". Nobody is going to go out and buy bitcoin after watching this show. They went out and bought bitcoin after Silk Road became big because they wanted drugs. What else can you do with bitcoin besides speculate and buy stuff on black markets?

The market may take a dive because of the liquidity problem on Bitcoinica, as people who went long begin to unload their BTC for lower and lower prices. Of course, Zhou may pump USD into it to allow more long positions, but he hasn't yet and I doubt he will.

I will agree that Bitcoinica is hurting the community as a whole yes..

But if you cant gather how Bitcoin entering the psyche of the people with help, I have little to say to you.

I never said that Bitcoinica was hurting the community as a whole.

The market did crash in June, after a rally.

You have nothing to say to me because it seems you don't have much to say in general.

Yes, Im quiet as a mouse in church!  Huh
legendary
Activity: 2198
Merit: 1311
January 17, 2012, 12:53:19 PM
#14
Sorry Vandroiy, I misunderstood. I thought you were telling me I couldn't play the spikes because of the maxed out leverage

My point was that people shouldn't jump into the market right now because it is probably going to crash. It sounds like you're saying the same thing.

Lol,

Yes, because the market ALWAYS crashes when bitcoin is exposed to millions of people..  Roll Eyes

It crashed hard in june 2011, really hard..

Well, yes, yes it did.

Proudhon and his NEW maths...

I'm serious.  Didn't the market crash in June?  Am I missing something?

I know its hard, but try the real world math..  Take the first day of june btc to usd price...  then look at the last day of june btc price..
Where is the crash ? are you refering to the correction from the peek ? 

Proudhon is back! and SHORT!

I see your point.  I guess I'm referring to the correction from the peak.
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 500
You're fat, because you dont have any pics on FB
January 17, 2012, 12:50:12 PM
#13
Sorry Vandroiy, I misunderstood. I thought you were telling me I couldn't play the spikes because of the maxed out leverage

My point was that people shouldn't jump into the market right now because it is probably going to crash. It sounds like you're saying the same thing.

Lol,

Yes, because the market ALWAYS crashes when bitcoin is exposed to millions of people..  Roll Eyes

It crashed hard in june 2011, really hard..

Well, yes, yes it did.

Proudhon and his NEW maths...

I'm serious.  Didn't the market crash in June?  Am I missing something?

I know its hard, but try the real world math..  Take the first day of june btc to usd price...  then look at the last day of june btc price..
Where is the crash ? are you refering to the correction from the peek ? 

Proudhon is back! and SHORT!
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 500
You're fat, because you dont have any pics on FB
January 17, 2012, 12:48:11 PM
#12
Sorry Vandroiy, I misunderstood. I thought you were telling me I couldn't play the spikes because of the maxed out leverage

My point was that people shouldn't jump into the market right now because it is probably going to crash. It sounds like you're saying the same thing.

Lol,

Yes, because the market ALWAYS crashes when bitcoin is exposed to millions of people..  Roll Eyes

It crashed hard in june 2011, really hard..

I'm a little confused as to why you think this fictional tv show is going to spark interest in bitcoin. The reasons why it won't have already been explained pretty clearly all over this board, but die hard fanboys just keep refusing to see the logic. I watched the show. It never says Bitcoin is real; it portrays it as cool, but a niche interest that is vaguely defined as "the future". Nobody is going to go out and buy bitcoin after watching this show. They went out and bought bitcoin after Silk Road became big because they wanted drugs. What else can you do with bitcoin besides speculate and buy stuff on black markets?

The market may take a dive because of the liquidity problem on Bitcoinica, as people who went long begin to unload their BTC for lower and lower prices. Of course, Zhou may pump USD into it to allow more long positions, but he hasn't yet and I doubt he will.

I will agree that Bitcoinica is hurting the community as a whole, yes..

But if you cant gather how Bitcoin entering the psyche of the people will help, I have little to say to you.
legendary
Activity: 2198
Merit: 1311
January 17, 2012, 12:46:38 PM
#11
Sorry Vandroiy, I misunderstood. I thought you were telling me I couldn't play the spikes because of the maxed out leverage

My point was that people shouldn't jump into the market right now because it is probably going to crash. It sounds like you're saying the same thing.

Lol,

Yes, because the market ALWAYS crashes when bitcoin is exposed to millions of people..  Roll Eyes

It crashed hard in june 2011, really hard..

Well, yes, yes it did.

Proudhon and his NEW maths...

I'm serious.  Didn't the market crash in June?  Am I missing something?
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 500
You're fat, because you dont have any pics on FB
January 17, 2012, 12:45:21 PM
#10
Sorry Vandroiy, I misunderstood. I thought you were telling me I couldn't play the spikes because of the maxed out leverage

My point was that people shouldn't jump into the market right now because it is probably going to crash. It sounds like you're saying the same thing.

Lol,

Yes, because the market ALWAYS crashes when bitcoin is exposed to millions of people..  Roll Eyes

It crashed hard in june 2011, really hard..

Well, yes, yes it did.

Proudhon and his NEW maths...
legendary
Activity: 2198
Merit: 1311
January 17, 2012, 12:37:05 PM
#9
Sorry Vandroiy, I misunderstood. I thought you were telling me I couldn't play the spikes because of the maxed out leverage

My point was that people shouldn't jump into the market right now because it is probably going to crash. It sounds like you're saying the same thing.

Lol,

Yes, because the market ALWAYS crashes when bitcoin is exposed to millions of people..  Roll Eyes

It crashed hard in june 2011, really hard..

Well, yes, yes it did.
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 500
You're fat, because you dont have any pics on FB
January 17, 2012, 12:27:06 PM
#8
Sorry Vandroiy, I misunderstood. I thought you were telling me I couldn't play the spikes because of the maxed out leverage

My point was that people shouldn't jump into the market right now because it is probably going to crash. It sounds like you're saying the same thing.

Lol,

Yes, because the market ALWAYS crashes when bitcoin is exposed to millions of people..  Roll Eyes

It crashed hard in june 2011, really hard..
legendary
Activity: 1036
Merit: 1002
January 17, 2012, 11:39:29 AM
#7
Temthaw: well, it would be unacceptable to not allow liquidating shorts, that does not necessarily mean anything. And even if they're below maximum now, that can still be way too much.

so what are you implying?  

That margin traders might have to execute liquidation sells the size of the order book bids down to below 6. Double that up over stop losses or panicking people, and you might get a flash crash.

I think we're above 10% probability for a sudden strike below 4 or something on that level of insanity. Such a configuration should normally never happen. Or I'm just not understanding something here.
hero member
Activity: 662
Merit: 545
January 17, 2012, 11:27:33 AM
#6
I've been catching spikes in small batches, but I agree... the market is acting funny today and that asterisk is still semi-constant. Stay out!

What? Are you kidding me? Bitcoinica is on maximum leveraged long positions now, with bids for only roughly 50k BTC in the vicinity?

I take that as an attempt to make me hit the "sell all remaining" button. This can't be right, or they somehow adjust maximum leverage to the order book -- which is a wild wager in itself due to manipulation possibilities.

so what are you implying? 
legendary
Activity: 1036
Merit: 1002
January 17, 2012, 11:07:50 AM
#5
I've been catching spikes in small batches, but I agree... the market is acting funny today and that asterisk is still semi-constant. Stay out!

What? Are you kidding me? Bitcoinica is on maximum leveraged long positions now, with bids for only roughly 50k BTC in the vicinity?

I take that as an attempt to make me hit the "sell all remaining" button. This can't be right, or they somehow adjust maximum leverage to the order book -- which is a wild wager in itself due to manipulation possibilities.
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 501
TokenUnion-Get Rewarded for Holding Crypto
January 17, 2012, 10:31:42 AM
#4
I strongly recommend to not go all-in! Especially not on margin! Better safe than sorry when one isn't sure what's going on.

Agreed.

It's a hard lesson to learn. Sad
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